GOJATLA: srovnavat s pandemii nejde, protoze pandemie ti brzdi veskery vstupy vyroby - lidi, jejich praci a ve vysledku tedy i jimi generovany kapital, ktery se dani za ucelem provozu a podpory toho samotnyho.

v tom je velky rozdil. pokud bychom uz byli v klimatu na urvoni tornad kazdy den, pak sme ve stejny situaci, ale nejsme. znamky reseni problemu vidim, viz napr. [ SHEFIK @ Klimaticka zmena // Are we fucked? ]

pro me ten problem klimatu je hlavne v soucasnym generovani energie (+stavebnictvi), ktery vytvari CO2 (pripadne dalsi sklenikovy plyny). jakmile ta energie bude generovana "ciste", mame velkou cast problemu za sebou. samozrejme to neni cely reseni problemu - musime dostat co2 z atmosfery, oceanu, mame problemy s nedostatkem pitny vody atd. ale to uz jsou dilci problemy, taky resitelny

ty odkazy jak ty veci resit tu padaji, stejne tak jako ze cina vyhlasila do 2050 uhlikovou neutralitu, USA se vraci k parizsky dohode (nekde jsem cet, ze ji plnily i za trumpa, i kdyz on mel presne opacnou politiku), EU ma hydrogen strategy, tlaci nejvic ve svete na emisini limity automobilu atd.

spis nez ti tu posilat zas milion presvedcovacich linku, rekni mi, kde je pro tebe milnik, ze se neco deje a jde to dobrym smerem?

TADEAS: ja nerikam, ze technologie vyresi vse, ale bez ni to nepujde. technologie je prostredek, kterej bud automatizuje, nebo snizuje miru usili pro dosazeni nami chtenych vysledku. neni nas na zemi milion, aby se ta zeme o nas postarala (a tenkrat rozhodne nebylo jednodussi prezit), ted uz opravdu musime my sami managovat do dusledku svoje preziti. a ja s tebou souhlasim, ze k sustainable mame jeste ve spouste oblasti daleko. ale ona jina nez sustainable cesta v dlouhodobym horizontu neni (neudrzitelna = neni udrzitelna), takze nas nase kulturni evoluce nevyhnutelne v nakym bode dotlaci do ty udrzitelnosti.

a pro apokalyptiky pozde nikdy nebude, viz krasny vysvetleni PAD:

SHEFIK: Nic proti optimismu, ale vidíš nějaké známky toho, že bychom byli schopní tenhle problém řešit globálně? Teoreticky by to šlo, ale v praxi? Nedovedeme si poradit s pandemií, která se v porovnání s klimatem dá řešit s nicotnými náklady. Můžeme alokovat nepředstavitelný kapitál, ale neuděláme to, každý bude hrát sám za sebe.
Dopady budou globální, ale bude zatraceně velkej rozdíl, jestli žiješ v Evropě, Austrálii nebo Indii. Říkat si, že to přece nemůže být tak zlé, že to nedopustíme, to je iluze. To samé si říkali židé před válkou.
Kdybych věděl kam, tak uteču. Antidepresiva nepotřebuju, o sebe se nebojím a mým dětem nepomůžou.

SHEFIK: ano, emoce a racio jsou chapane jako ruzne domeny/dimenze lidske zkusenosti :))

lidi co tohle resej (jako treba ja) ale podle myho nazoru nevedou emoce, ale normalni kalkul. ja treba nemam strach, kdybych mel strach a nechtel bych ho resit, tak bych si napr. mohl rict, ze to zvladneme a ze je to v pohode. prijde mi to hodne iracionalni.

TADEAS: ale to je jasny. stejne jako se pri covidu zamkli do svejch luxusnich krytu a na svy opusteny ostrovy.

a ja jim to preju :) v bunkru bych fakt dva roky zavrenej bejt nechtel. ani s netflixem na opustenym ostrove bych si asi tak dlouho nevystacil. myslim ze by me prestal bavit kite i surfovani v takovyhle izolaci

co se snazim rict je, ze reakce by mely bejt adekvatni riziku. a predpovidat co bude v tuhle chvili je nesmysl. za me je uplne stejna sance, ze se budem mit za 50 let vsichni lip, naucime se hospodarit s pudou, vodou, budem mit cistou energii atd. samozrejme ne plosne, a v africe pribude konfliktu, ale pokud se treba podari na saharu privyst velkoobjemovou vyrobu vodiku a privyst prachy do regionu, muze to naopak sever stabilizovat a zabranit migraci smerem do evropy...

scenaru budoucnosti je nekonecne mnoho a jsou podmineny budoucimi rozhodnutimi a usilim jak jedbotlivcu, tak firem. vime jen, ze trendem je oteplovani. nic dalsiho s jistotou rict nemuzem.

...vzhledem k tomu, ze strach je iracionalni emoce, nebudu tu uz dal plejtvat argumenty :) nemel sem s tim ani zacinat...

TADEAS: Kamos to takto resil - obcanstvi jako pojistku. Jo, muze byt, dokud se fakt veci neposerou. Pro pripomenuti, co takove obcanstvi / obecne lidska prava vlastne jsou:
George Carlin - You have no rights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9-R8T1SuG4

SHEFIK: vsadim se, ze nemala skupina lidi co alokujou ten nepredstavitelnej kapital se zaroven bude hedgovat proti dopadum klima zmen napr. ziskanim privilegovanyho pristupu do klimaticky a socialne bezpecnejch oblasti. kolik mas obcanstvi, tolikrat jsi pojisten.

GOJATLA: zapominas na spoustu dalsich rozdilu oproti Hitlerovi. Ten problem je globalni a bude mit dopad na vsechny (jednotlivce i zeme). tzn. tady neni lokalni nepritel od kteryho utect, je tu jen globalni problem, jehoz resenim jsme my vsichni soucasti.

dalsim velmi podstatnym rozdilem je doba a rychlost sireni informaci v globalnim meritku (internet x partyzansky tisk)

...dale schopnost globalne alokovat nepredstavitelny kapital (penize, prace, zdroje...)

a z toho x dalsich implikaci uplne odlisnych od srovnani s psychopatem ve vedeni statu

ta situace je naprosto odlisna a lidstvo ji bezpochyby zvladne. kdo se boji, at radsi utece. nicmene myslim ze adekvatnejsim resenim jsou antidepresiva, myslim to vazne

OMNIHASH: Diskuse není o pěstování salátu, ale o tom zda a kam emigrovat. To není otázka prepperství, ale pudu sebezáchovy, zvlášť když máš děti. Představ si, že jsi německý žid a v roce 1932 vyhraje volby Hitler. Emigrace byla rozumná volba, přes všechna rizika a nejistotu, jestli Hitler své hrozby naplní. Rozdíl je v tom, že kolaps klimatu na nás dopadne pomaleji, starších se tolik netýká. A taky v tom, že není kam jít, nedá se odhadnout, jak bude svět vypadat za 30 let.

ta tasmania nie je tiez ziadny easy level na migraci, znamy z US sa tam planoval stahovat pokial by trump vyhral znova volby, ale zistili, ze by to vyslo celkom draho (a on nie je ziadny chudak, jeho zena robi pre nejakeho vyrobcu lekov)

tiez tam hladaju iba uzitocnych migrantov, taky TADEAS by tam mohol ist s novymi metodami zemedelstvi :)
https://www.migration.tas.gov.au/news/2020-2021_program_year_update

Na tohle tema kolapsu je hezke vlakno na redditu: https://www.reddit.com/r/climatechange/comments/k1vyxo/scared_and_uncertain_about_collapse/

Tohle se mi libi asi nejvice:

What do we mean by a collapse? Does it matters when? is there even a "when"? Should it changes anything in our actions?

The first point I think is important is to remove completely the idea of a "doomsday", that's not at all what a collapse is. A collapse is gradual, typically an uncontrolled "degrowth" of the society, a series of crisis and recessions that will generate wars for example...

When you read serious books about the collapse they even say that we might not even realise that we will go through a collapse and it's only in a century or more that historians will qualify our period as a "collapse". The romans for example didn't realised their civilization collapsed. But here it's a bit different, it will be faster and more extreme if it happens.

What I personally think is:

We are already in the collapse of our industrial society. The very basis of our current civilization is the continuous growth and access to more and more energy. That can't and won't continue. Whether we like it or not we are already in a "degrowth" phase and not only because of the climate crisis impact but also due to the slow depletion of fossil fuels.

It's already too late to avoid crossing some tipping points of the planetary system, and that will have consequences. We have entered an age of consequences from our destruction of the planet and of the climate. But it's not black and white, it's not either too late and we're fucked or we have time and we can go back to "normal". It's always too late and never too late at the same time. Yes it's too late to avoid 1.5°C of global warming and the consequences that go with it, it's almost too late to avoid 2°C... but it's not too late to avoid 3°C... and even if we don't do shit and in 20 years it's too late to avoid 3°C, then it still won't be too late to avoid 4°C, or 6°C... you get the picture!

So it's irrelevant to put a date. "we have until 2030..." doesn't mean anything if not in context. If our goal is to stay below 2°C of Global warming then yes we have until 2030 to cut our emissions by 80% or something like that...

Will there be wars because of the climate crisis? YES. Will there be famine? YES. Will there be chaos in some part of the world? YES. Will there be uninhabitable areas? YES... And it's already the case! It's all on a scale. If there's 1 billion people who end up having to migrate because their country has become uninhabitable, is it a collapse? If it's 3 billions people? If it's 6 billions? Where do you put the limit?

The point is that, yes, it is already too late to avoid some very bad consequences of the climate crisis, and yes, our thermo-industrial society and its worship of economical growth has already started to collapse and MUST collapse.

But it isn't an all or nothing situation. Everything is on a scale. We can have a "happy collapse" of our society, a controlled one that allow us to build a resilient one to replace it. We can have global mutual-aid and avoid many wars, we can help each others to mitigate the damage of the climate crisis. We might not be able to avoid 2°C of global warming but we can avoid 4°C! And that makes a huge difference.

The collapse has already started, but there's many possible outcomes and type of collapse that we are still in control of... It's never too late to avoid even worse consequences and we should keep fighting because every bits of °C of global warming avoided means millions of lives saved! [Sorry za vetsi kus, ale prislo mi to fakt hezky sesumirovany.]

Podle toho rankingu z Notre Dame Uni jsou CR i NZ v tom "nejlepsim" clastru - nejmene ohrozene a nejvice pripravene. Samozrejme asi neuvazuji v kontextu nejakeho globalniho konfliktu, kde NZ muze mit vyhodu sve geograficke polohy. Naproti tomu si dovedu predstavit, ze CR ma vyhodu geologicke povahy - nejsou tu zemetreseni. Pokud mas nejakou self-reliant komunitu operujici na zbytcich technologie a prijde pruser jak pred par lety v Christchurch, bez vnejsi pomoci se to dava dohromady blbe.

New Zealand | ND-GAIN Index
https://gain-new.crc.nd.edu/country/new-zealand
Czech Republic | ND-GAIN Index
https://gain-new.crc.nd.edu/country/czech-republic

European states ordered to respond to youth activists' climate lawsuit | Climate change | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/...ov/30/european-states-ordered-respond-youth-activists-climate-lawsuit

The European court of human rights has ordered 33 European governments to respond to a landmark climate lawsuit lodged by six youth campaigners, the Guardian has learned.

The plaintiffs’ British barrister says it could be the most important case ever tried by the Strasbourg-based judges.

In a sign of the urgency of the climate crisis, the court will announce on Monday that it has green-lighted the crowdfunded case, which was filed two months ago. It has already confirmed it will be treated as a priority, which means the process will be fast-tracked.

...

If the defendant countries fail to convince the Strasbourg-based judges, lawyers say they will be legally bound to take more ambitious steps and to address the contribution they – and multinational companies headquartered in their jurisdictions – make to overseas emissions through trade, deforestation and extractive industries.