TADEAS: ale to je jasny. stejne jako se pri covidu zamkli do svejch luxusnich krytu a na svy opusteny ostrovy.

a ja jim to preju :) v bunkru bych fakt dva roky zavrenej bejt nechtel. ani s netflixem na opustenym ostrove bych si asi tak dlouho nevystacil. myslim ze by me prestal bavit kite i surfovani v takovyhle izolaci

co se snazim rict je, ze reakce by mely bejt adekvatni riziku. a predpovidat co bude v tuhle chvili je nesmysl. za me je uplne stejna sance, ze se budem mit za 50 let vsichni lip, naucime se hospodarit s pudou, vodou, budem mit cistou energii atd. samozrejme ne plosne, a v africe pribude konfliktu, ale pokud se treba podari na saharu privyst velkoobjemovou vyrobu vodiku a privyst prachy do regionu, muze to naopak sever stabilizovat a zabranit migraci smerem do evropy...

scenaru budoucnosti je nekonecne mnoho a jsou podmineny budoucimi rozhodnutimi a usilim jak jedbotlivcu, tak firem. vime jen, ze trendem je oteplovani. nic dalsiho s jistotou rict nemuzem.

...vzhledem k tomu, ze strach je iracionalni emoce, nebudu tu uz dal plejtvat argumenty :) nemel sem s tim ani zacinat...

TADEAS: Kamos to takto resil - obcanstvi jako pojistku. Jo, muze byt, dokud se fakt veci neposerou. Pro pripomenuti, co takove obcanstvi / obecne lidska prava vlastne jsou:
George Carlin - You have no rights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9-R8T1SuG4

SHEFIK: vsadim se, ze nemala skupina lidi co alokujou ten nepredstavitelnej kapital se zaroven bude hedgovat proti dopadum klima zmen napr. ziskanim privilegovanyho pristupu do klimaticky a socialne bezpecnejch oblasti. kolik mas obcanstvi, tolikrat jsi pojisten.

GOJATLA: zapominas na spoustu dalsich rozdilu oproti Hitlerovi. Ten problem je globalni a bude mit dopad na vsechny (jednotlivce i zeme). tzn. tady neni lokalni nepritel od kteryho utect, je tu jen globalni problem, jehoz resenim jsme my vsichni soucasti.

dalsim velmi podstatnym rozdilem je doba a rychlost sireni informaci v globalnim meritku (internet x partyzansky tisk)

...dale schopnost globalne alokovat nepredstavitelny kapital (penize, prace, zdroje...)

a z toho x dalsich implikaci uplne odlisnych od srovnani s psychopatem ve vedeni statu

ta situace je naprosto odlisna a lidstvo ji bezpochyby zvladne. kdo se boji, at radsi utece. nicmene myslim ze adekvatnejsim resenim jsou antidepresiva, myslim to vazne

OMNIHASH: Diskuse není o pěstování salátu, ale o tom zda a kam emigrovat. To není otázka prepperství, ale pudu sebezáchovy, zvlášť když máš děti. Představ si, že jsi německý žid a v roce 1932 vyhraje volby Hitler. Emigrace byla rozumná volba, přes všechna rizika a nejistotu, jestli Hitler své hrozby naplní. Rozdíl je v tom, že kolaps klimatu na nás dopadne pomaleji, starších se tolik netýká. A taky v tom, že není kam jít, nedá se odhadnout, jak bude svět vypadat za 30 let.

ta tasmania nie je tiez ziadny easy level na migraci, znamy z US sa tam planoval stahovat pokial by trump vyhral znova volby, ale zistili, ze by to vyslo celkom draho (a on nie je ziadny chudak, jeho zena robi pre nejakeho vyrobcu lekov)

tiez tam hladaju iba uzitocnych migrantov, taky TADEAS by tam mohol ist s novymi metodami zemedelstvi :)
https://www.migration.tas.gov.au/news/2020-2021_program_year_update

Na tohle tema kolapsu je hezke vlakno na redditu: https://www.reddit.com/r/climatechange/comments/k1vyxo/scared_and_uncertain_about_collapse/

Tohle se mi libi asi nejvice:

What do we mean by a collapse? Does it matters when? is there even a "when"? Should it changes anything in our actions?

The first point I think is important is to remove completely the idea of a "doomsday", that's not at all what a collapse is. A collapse is gradual, typically an uncontrolled "degrowth" of the society, a series of crisis and recessions that will generate wars for example...

When you read serious books about the collapse they even say that we might not even realise that we will go through a collapse and it's only in a century or more that historians will qualify our period as a "collapse". The romans for example didn't realised their civilization collapsed. But here it's a bit different, it will be faster and more extreme if it happens.

What I personally think is:

We are already in the collapse of our industrial society. The very basis of our current civilization is the continuous growth and access to more and more energy. That can't and won't continue. Whether we like it or not we are already in a "degrowth" phase and not only because of the climate crisis impact but also due to the slow depletion of fossil fuels.

It's already too late to avoid crossing some tipping points of the planetary system, and that will have consequences. We have entered an age of consequences from our destruction of the planet and of the climate. But it's not black and white, it's not either too late and we're fucked or we have time and we can go back to "normal". It's always too late and never too late at the same time. Yes it's too late to avoid 1.5°C of global warming and the consequences that go with it, it's almost too late to avoid 2°C... but it's not too late to avoid 3°C... and even if we don't do shit and in 20 years it's too late to avoid 3°C, then it still won't be too late to avoid 4°C, or 6°C... you get the picture!

So it's irrelevant to put a date. "we have until 2030..." doesn't mean anything if not in context. If our goal is to stay below 2°C of Global warming then yes we have until 2030 to cut our emissions by 80% or something like that...

Will there be wars because of the climate crisis? YES. Will there be famine? YES. Will there be chaos in some part of the world? YES. Will there be uninhabitable areas? YES... And it's already the case! It's all on a scale. If there's 1 billion people who end up having to migrate because their country has become uninhabitable, is it a collapse? If it's 3 billions people? If it's 6 billions? Where do you put the limit?

The point is that, yes, it is already too late to avoid some very bad consequences of the climate crisis, and yes, our thermo-industrial society and its worship of economical growth has already started to collapse and MUST collapse.

But it isn't an all or nothing situation. Everything is on a scale. We can have a "happy collapse" of our society, a controlled one that allow us to build a resilient one to replace it. We can have global mutual-aid and avoid many wars, we can help each others to mitigate the damage of the climate crisis. We might not be able to avoid 2°C of global warming but we can avoid 4°C! And that makes a huge difference.

The collapse has already started, but there's many possible outcomes and type of collapse that we are still in control of... It's never too late to avoid even worse consequences and we should keep fighting because every bits of °C of global warming avoided means millions of lives saved! [Sorry za vetsi kus, ale prislo mi to fakt hezky sesumirovany.]

Podle toho rankingu z Notre Dame Uni jsou CR i NZ v tom "nejlepsim" clastru - nejmene ohrozene a nejvice pripravene. Samozrejme asi neuvazuji v kontextu nejakeho globalniho konfliktu, kde NZ muze mit vyhodu sve geograficke polohy. Naproti tomu si dovedu predstavit, ze CR ma vyhodu geologicke povahy - nejsou tu zemetreseni. Pokud mas nejakou self-reliant komunitu operujici na zbytcich technologie a prijde pruser jak pred par lety v Christchurch, bez vnejsi pomoci se to dava dohromady blbe.

New Zealand | ND-GAIN Index
https://gain-new.crc.nd.edu/country/new-zealand
Czech Republic | ND-GAIN Index
https://gain-new.crc.nd.edu/country/czech-republic

European states ordered to respond to youth activists' climate lawsuit | Climate change | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/...ov/30/european-states-ordered-respond-youth-activists-climate-lawsuit

The European court of human rights has ordered 33 European governments to respond to a landmark climate lawsuit lodged by six youth campaigners, the Guardian has learned.

The plaintiffs’ British barrister says it could be the most important case ever tried by the Strasbourg-based judges.

In a sign of the urgency of the climate crisis, the court will announce on Monday that it has green-lighted the crowdfunded case, which was filed two months ago. It has already confirmed it will be treated as a priority, which means the process will be fast-tracked.

...

If the defendant countries fail to convince the Strasbourg-based judges, lawyers say they will be legally bound to take more ambitious steps and to address the contribution they – and multinational companies headquartered in their jurisdictions – make to overseas emissions through trade, deforestation and extractive industries.

Vy ste se tu dobře rozjeli, už jenom čekám, kdo se vytasí se stavbou protiatomovýho bunkru maskovanýho za posed nebo hromadu slámy...

PAD: asi zalezi na co optimalizujes :) s tou absenci/nedostatecnosti socialnich vazeb je to urcite pravda, jenze tohle je uvaha o urcity strategii, jejiz kontext jsou desitky let a nejaky moznosti pro dalsi generace (zde rodiny), a v tomhle horizontu se ty vazby zas uz vytvarej. ono dokud nic existencialniho cloveka migrovat extra nenuti, tak to asi spis delat nebude, jenze az nas zrovna tohle nutit bude, tak teply mistecka uz prave budou desitky let fuc, podle me :) obecne tyhle strategie kumulace pristupu, obcanstvi prislusej obvykle nejakejm bohatejm vrstvam a je to takova nejluxusnejsi forma migrace. v tech kratsich horizontech a pokud clovek nema moznost tyhle statusy akumulovat to vyhodna strategie asi bejt nemusi. nevim, jsou to opce, nejistt hry s budoucnosti. defaultni moznost je asi vzdycky to neresit, nedivat se.

Co takové Grónsko? Až se oteplí o 3 stupně, to může bejt fajn :) Ale jinak ta Kanada nezní špatně

PER2: jj, NSW / Sydney je na tom blbe, je to uz moc na sever - kdyz bychom tam byvali jeli, tak bych spis smeroval nekam do Victorie / Melbourne, nebo rovnou Tasmanie, coz je taky ostrov. Vyhodou Australie oproti NZ pro me v dobe, kdy jsme o tom uvazovali, byly: vetsi zeme (=schopnost se ubranit), silnejsi ekonomika (vetsi platy a mene nafoukle ceny nemovitosti, vice prace), a nejake ty kontakty ... ale jak jsem psal, nakonec z toho seslo kvuli tomu, ze emigrace do Aus znamena, ze tam budes nejmin 5 let platit dane jak mourovatej a jeste si musis platit zdravotnictvi a skolstvi, coz efektivne muze znamenat, ze tam budes zit do konce zivota v najmu ...

Asi nejdulezitejsi vec mi ale dosla az pozdeji, kdyz jsem do Aus jel pracovne: je to EXTREMNE daleko, takze pokud resis nejakou uhlikovou stopu, tak to znamena, ze se vlastne vzdas vazeb v Evrope. Nechtel bych tu nechat rodice, prislo by mi to fakt sobecke ... (Psycholog by mozna rekl, ze si to proste jen racionalizuju. Mozna. To ale nic nemeni na tom, ze je to daleko a ze se tech vazeb vlastne vzdas.)

TADEAS: z tohoto pohledu mi prijde dobry i to Irsko - je tam tak nahovno pocasi, ze se tam nikdo moc hrnout nebude, ale stale jsou na cca 1/2 populace oproti urovni pred hladomorem, takze ta zeme ma potencial uzivit vice. Navic je to fantasticka spolecnost, neutralni zeme, a mluvi anglicky.

TADEAS: vsecko to dava smysl, ale problem je, ze my lide jsme fakt blbi v domysleni nelinearnosti. nemame na to mozek. ja treba uvazoval i takto: budu jako imigrant nekde v Australii, za 5 let bude nejaky pruser, treba velka neuroda - kde mam vetsi sanci to zvladnout? jako imigrant nekde v byte v Melbourne, vicemene bez opravdovych pratel (protoze z my zkusenosti si v emigraci opravdove pratele jen tak nenajdes), bez rodiny, nebo naopak nekde na vsi v CR, kde je to dost daleko od mest, kde se da vypestovat jidlo, a kde mam nejake vazby? je to slozity ... u kazdeho scenare jsem schopny vymyslet, kdy selze a kdy naopak ne, takze jsem to nakonec prestal resit, protoze se z toho muze clovek pekne zblaznit:)

YMLADRIS: moje serazeni priorit proc delat takovouhle vec (intergeneracne) je: ekosystem, pak geograficky predpoklady pro stabilni spolecnost v extremne nestabilnim svete, pak politicky zrizeni. ta geograficka nedostupnost zpusobuje, ze to taky je potencialne hur regulovatelna kolonie z nejakyho velmi vzdalenyho centra a ty zdroje nejsou tak velky, aby byly zas tak zajimavy. takze furt mi z toho vychazi spis globalni gated community, at uz si na ni bude delat naroky kdokoliv dalsi. ale samozrejme tezko rict. je to hra s moznostma a uzaviranim se moznosti. a nakonec ty osudy jsou spletity a vetsina lidi se na to talhle ani nediva. vsechno ma ale svoje dusledky.