Na tohle tema kolapsu je hezke vlakno na redditu: https://www.reddit.com/r/climatechange/comments/k1vyxo/scared_and_uncertain_about_collapse/

Tohle se mi libi asi nejvice:

What do we mean by a collapse? Does it matters when? is there even a "when"? Should it changes anything in our actions?

The first point I think is important is to remove completely the idea of a "doomsday", that's not at all what a collapse is. A collapse is gradual, typically an uncontrolled "degrowth" of the society, a series of crisis and recessions that will generate wars for example...

When you read serious books about the collapse they even say that we might not even realise that we will go through a collapse and it's only in a century or more that historians will qualify our period as a "collapse". The romans for example didn't realised their civilization collapsed. But here it's a bit different, it will be faster and more extreme if it happens.

What I personally think is:

We are already in the collapse of our industrial society. The very basis of our current civilization is the continuous growth and access to more and more energy. That can't and won't continue. Whether we like it or not we are already in a "degrowth" phase and not only because of the climate crisis impact but also due to the slow depletion of fossil fuels.

It's already too late to avoid crossing some tipping points of the planetary system, and that will have consequences. We have entered an age of consequences from our destruction of the planet and of the climate. But it's not black and white, it's not either too late and we're fucked or we have time and we can go back to "normal". It's always too late and never too late at the same time. Yes it's too late to avoid 1.5°C of global warming and the consequences that go with it, it's almost too late to avoid 2°C... but it's not too late to avoid 3°C... and even if we don't do shit and in 20 years it's too late to avoid 3°C, then it still won't be too late to avoid 4°C, or 6°C... you get the picture!

So it's irrelevant to put a date. "we have until 2030..." doesn't mean anything if not in context. If our goal is to stay below 2°C of Global warming then yes we have until 2030 to cut our emissions by 80% or something like that...

Will there be wars because of the climate crisis? YES. Will there be famine? YES. Will there be chaos in some part of the world? YES. Will there be uninhabitable areas? YES... And it's already the case! It's all on a scale. If there's 1 billion people who end up having to migrate because their country has become uninhabitable, is it a collapse? If it's 3 billions people? If it's 6 billions? Where do you put the limit?

The point is that, yes, it is already too late to avoid some very bad consequences of the climate crisis, and yes, our thermo-industrial society and its worship of economical growth has already started to collapse and MUST collapse.

But it isn't an all or nothing situation. Everything is on a scale. We can have a "happy collapse" of our society, a controlled one that allow us to build a resilient one to replace it. We can have global mutual-aid and avoid many wars, we can help each others to mitigate the damage of the climate crisis. We might not be able to avoid 2°C of global warming but we can avoid 4°C! And that makes a huge difference.

The collapse has already started, but there's many possible outcomes and type of collapse that we are still in control of... It's never too late to avoid even worse consequences and we should keep fighting because every bits of °C of global warming avoided means millions of lives saved! [Sorry za vetsi kus, ale prislo mi to fakt hezky sesumirovany.]

Podle toho rankingu z Notre Dame Uni jsou CR i NZ v tom "nejlepsim" clastru - nejmene ohrozene a nejvice pripravene. Samozrejme asi neuvazuji v kontextu nejakeho globalniho konfliktu, kde NZ muze mit vyhodu sve geograficke polohy. Naproti tomu si dovedu predstavit, ze CR ma vyhodu geologicke povahy - nejsou tu zemetreseni. Pokud mas nejakou self-reliant komunitu operujici na zbytcich technologie a prijde pruser jak pred par lety v Christchurch, bez vnejsi pomoci se to dava dohromady blbe.

New Zealand | ND-GAIN Index
https://gain-new.crc.nd.edu/country/new-zealand
Czech Republic | ND-GAIN Index
https://gain-new.crc.nd.edu/country/czech-republic

European states ordered to respond to youth activists' climate lawsuit | Climate change | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/...ov/30/european-states-ordered-respond-youth-activists-climate-lawsuit

The European court of human rights has ordered 33 European governments to respond to a landmark climate lawsuit lodged by six youth campaigners, the Guardian has learned.

The plaintiffs’ British barrister says it could be the most important case ever tried by the Strasbourg-based judges.

In a sign of the urgency of the climate crisis, the court will announce on Monday that it has green-lighted the crowdfunded case, which was filed two months ago. It has already confirmed it will be treated as a priority, which means the process will be fast-tracked.

...

If the defendant countries fail to convince the Strasbourg-based judges, lawyers say they will be legally bound to take more ambitious steps and to address the contribution they – and multinational companies headquartered in their jurisdictions – make to overseas emissions through trade, deforestation and extractive industries.

Vy ste se tu dobře rozjeli, už jenom čekám, kdo se vytasí se stavbou protiatomovýho bunkru maskovanýho za posed nebo hromadu slámy...

PAD: asi zalezi na co optimalizujes :) s tou absenci/nedostatecnosti socialnich vazeb je to urcite pravda, jenze tohle je uvaha o urcity strategii, jejiz kontext jsou desitky let a nejaky moznosti pro dalsi generace (zde rodiny), a v tomhle horizontu se ty vazby zas uz vytvarej. ono dokud nic existencialniho cloveka migrovat extra nenuti, tak to asi spis delat nebude, jenze az nas zrovna tohle nutit bude, tak teply mistecka uz prave budou desitky let fuc, podle me :) obecne tyhle strategie kumulace pristupu, obcanstvi prislusej obvykle nejakejm bohatejm vrstvam a je to takova nejluxusnejsi forma migrace. v tech kratsich horizontech a pokud clovek nema moznost tyhle statusy akumulovat to vyhodna strategie asi bejt nemusi. nevim, jsou to opce, nejistt hry s budoucnosti. defaultni moznost je asi vzdycky to neresit, nedivat se.

Co takové Grónsko? Až se oteplí o 3 stupně, to může bejt fajn :) Ale jinak ta Kanada nezní špatně

PER2: jj, NSW / Sydney je na tom blbe, je to uz moc na sever - kdyz bychom tam byvali jeli, tak bych spis smeroval nekam do Victorie / Melbourne, nebo rovnou Tasmanie, coz je taky ostrov. Vyhodou Australie oproti NZ pro me v dobe, kdy jsme o tom uvazovali, byly: vetsi zeme (=schopnost se ubranit), silnejsi ekonomika (vetsi platy a mene nafoukle ceny nemovitosti, vice prace), a nejake ty kontakty ... ale jak jsem psal, nakonec z toho seslo kvuli tomu, ze emigrace do Aus znamena, ze tam budes nejmin 5 let platit dane jak mourovatej a jeste si musis platit zdravotnictvi a skolstvi, coz efektivne muze znamenat, ze tam budes zit do konce zivota v najmu ...

Asi nejdulezitejsi vec mi ale dosla az pozdeji, kdyz jsem do Aus jel pracovne: je to EXTREMNE daleko, takze pokud resis nejakou uhlikovou stopu, tak to znamena, ze se vlastne vzdas vazeb v Evrope. Nechtel bych tu nechat rodice, prislo by mi to fakt sobecke ... (Psycholog by mozna rekl, ze si to proste jen racionalizuju. Mozna. To ale nic nemeni na tom, ze je to daleko a ze se tech vazeb vlastne vzdas.)

TADEAS: z tohoto pohledu mi prijde dobry i to Irsko - je tam tak nahovno pocasi, ze se tam nikdo moc hrnout nebude, ale stale jsou na cca 1/2 populace oproti urovni pred hladomorem, takze ta zeme ma potencial uzivit vice. Navic je to fantasticka spolecnost, neutralni zeme, a mluvi anglicky.

TADEAS: vsecko to dava smysl, ale problem je, ze my lide jsme fakt blbi v domysleni nelinearnosti. nemame na to mozek. ja treba uvazoval i takto: budu jako imigrant nekde v Australii, za 5 let bude nejaky pruser, treba velka neuroda - kde mam vetsi sanci to zvladnout? jako imigrant nekde v byte v Melbourne, vicemene bez opravdovych pratel (protoze z my zkusenosti si v emigraci opravdove pratele jen tak nenajdes), bez rodiny, nebo naopak nekde na vsi v CR, kde je to dost daleko od mest, kde se da vypestovat jidlo, a kde mam nejake vazby? je to slozity ... u kazdeho scenare jsem schopny vymyslet, kdy selze a kdy naopak ne, takze jsem to nakonec prestal resit, protoze se z toho muze clovek pekne zblaznit:)

YMLADRIS: moje serazeni priorit proc delat takovouhle vec (intergeneracne) je: ekosystem, pak geograficky predpoklady pro stabilni spolecnost v extremne nestabilnim svete, pak politicky zrizeni. ta geograficka nedostupnost zpusobuje, ze to taky je potencialne hur regulovatelna kolonie z nejakyho velmi vzdalenyho centra a ty zdroje nejsou tak velky, aby byly zas tak zajimavy. takze furt mi z toho vychazi spis globalni gated community, at uz si na ni bude delat naroky kdokoliv dalsi. ale samozrejme tezko rict. je to hra s moznostma a uzaviranim se moznosti. a nakonec ty osudy jsou spletity a vetsina lidi se na to talhle ani nediva. vsechno ma ale svoje dusledky.

PAD: australie povidas ;)

New South Wales in Australia has just recorded its hottest November day ever.

+ 46.9 °C in Smithville at 4:35 pm local time.

Australia is currently in the grip of a profound widespread spring heatwave. Summer starts on Tuesday next week.

TADEAS: právě (Čína). Jako že, na co se aspiruje. Bezpečí - Evropa si udělá nějakou menší oplocenou citadelu ze které bude odrážet vlny migrantů. Do ní se bude chtít dostat hodně lidí jako občané. Má to historii.

Versus Zéland - jakou má šanci jeho třeba 20M obyvatel proti Číně, pokud se Čína rozhodne, že je v jejím zájmu vlastnit to území. Ale zas tam nebudou ty války s migrantama.

Třetí pohled - společenské uspořádání (fašismus vs. levicová diktatura) jsou podružné vůči tomu ekosystému, a na zélandu to bude lepší, ať už budou tamní běloši občané prvního nebo druhého řádu.

Nikdo to neví ale IMO z nás mluví různé historické zkušenosti. V roce 1968 jsem nebyla na světě, ale moji rodiče žili v roce 1948 i v roce 1968 a já nesu to jejich uvědomění, že svobodné fungování je jen takový fejk, který je na pořadu dne jen chvíli, pokud se tak z nějakýho důvodu rozhodnou silnější síly. Vy, co jste se narodili už do demokracie, asi aspirujete na pobyt v demokratické společnosti (proč by Čína Zéland zabírala ...)

no, nevíme, uvidíme

YMLADRIS: neni uzavrena, ale znamena to migrovat hned (zacit tam zit, podnikat). takze je to takovej vabank, je to o tom, co se ted behem deseti let stane, jestli to pujde jako doposud, tak ty duvody k (preventivni) migraci prevazi (z intergeneracniho a sobeckyho pohledu). ale jakmile to bude jasny dostatecnymu poctu lidi, tak se to podle me velmi rychle uzavre. pro zajimavost na nejvyssi investorsky viza na nz (prakticky koupe obcanstvi) dosahne globalne asi 35m lidi (nepocitaje jejich rodinny prislusniky). takze v tomhle smyslu jsou dvere zatim dosiroka otevreny a puda i nemovitosti za babku :D

...

doporucuju antidepresiva

TADEAS:

Rethinking New Zealand’s Grand Strategy | Geopolitical Monitor
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/rethinking-new-zealands-grand-strategy/

China in Xi’s “New Era”: New Zealand and the CCP’s “Magic Weapons” | Journal of Democracy
https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/...s/china-in-xis-new-era-new-zealand-and-the-ccps-magic-weapons/

New Zealand is the target of a concerted foreign-influence campaign by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The campaign aims to further the political and economic agendas of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) by coopting local elites, securing access to strategic information and resources, and manipulating public discourse. These CCP political influence activities, which in China fall under the rubric of “united front work,” have also frequently been a means of facilitating espionage. New Zealand appears to have been a test zone for many of China’s recent united front efforts—activities that not only threaten New Zealand’s sovereignty, but also are undermining the integrity of the New Zealand political system and the rights of ethnic-Chinese New Zealanders to the freedoms of speech, association, and religion.

PAD: zeland. samozrejme, da se ocekavat, ze to bude nejvetsi globalni gated community kvuli svy poloze. jedina vylozene nevyhoda prostredi je vetsi ozonova dira. ted je tam 5m lidi, to prostredi samo uzivi mnohonasobne vic a v jakymkoliv klimatickym scenari je to ok lokace, prakticky fyzicky nedostupna pro migranty, takze dlouhodobe asi nic moc uzavrena spolecnost, ale asi stabilni. otazka jak se to bude vyvijet geopoliticky, to ale vsude.

neni to samozrjeme reseni niceho, je to opousteni titaniku v luxusnim clunu. myslim ale, ze ted je (generacne) cas to resit, nemyslim ze v r. 2050 bude mozny se na zeland dostat jinak nez jako nejakej ten sezonni pracovnik. pozice busiu obsazeny, puda nedostupna (momentalne tam ceny podobny cr, nakupovat muzou jen rezidenti).

Na NZ budete dosmrti zit v drahom najmu, poda je tam rozobrana a ceny nemovitosti astronomicke