technooptimistický Eli Dourado (nemá ani stránku na wikipedii, takže nevím jak moc je věrohodný)
geotermální
What is more plausible (než vítr, slunce, jádro, které diskutoval výše) this decade is enhanced and advanced geothermal systems. The legacy geothermal industry is sleepy, tapping energy at traditional volcanic hydrothermal hotspots—forget about it. The next generation of the industry, however, is a bunch of scrappy startups manned by folks leaving the oil and gas industry. The startups I have spoken to think with today’s technology they can crack 3.5¢/kWh without being confined to volcanic regions. With relatively minor advancements in drilling technology compared to what we’ve seen over the last decade, advanced geothermal could reach 2¢/kWh and become scale to become viable just about anywhere on the planet. Collectively, the startups are talking about figures like hundreds of gigawatts of generation by 2030. I’m watching this space closely; the Heat Beat blog is a great way to stay in the loop. As I wrote last month, permitting reform will be important.
fúze
Fusion continues to make technical progress. I expect we will get a demonstration of energy-positive fusion in this decade from one of several fusion startups or perhaps Lockheed Martin’s compact fusion reactor. But again: a demonstration is far from a change that transforms society. It will take further decades to deploy reactors onto the grid. By the time fusion gets there, the energy market will be quite different from when we started working on fusion reactors in the 1940s. Wind, solar, and hopefully geothermal will make electricity pretty cheap, and fusion will struggle to compete.
Consider: around half the cost of an advanced geothermal plant is drilling, and half is conversion equipment. Suppose the plant is amortized over 30 years (although many geothermal plants last longer), and after that period the conversion equipment needs to be replaced. But the hole in the ground does not need to be replaced! That means for the next 30 years, electricity can be generated at half the initial cost. Geothermal wells we dig this decade could be producing at less than 1¢/kWh by the 2050s. That is a tough market for fusion to break into. But fusion will still be a great source of power in applications where other sources aren’t available, such as in space.
letectvi
Hydrogen fuel is much better than batteries, but still not as energy dense as fossil fuels or SAF, and so my money is on SAF, and particularly on fuel made from CO₂ pulled from the atmosphere. It is easy to convert atmospheric CO₂ to ethanol in solution; and it is easy to upgrade ethanol into other fuels. But it is hard to separate ethanol from water without using a lot of energy—unless you have an advanced membrane as Prometheus Fuels does. I have written about Prometheus before and continue to follow them closely. Their technology could decarbonize aviation very suddenly.
huge fan of supersonics / ale to se nestihne ve 2020
urban air mobility companies / asi to na co veri XCHAOS
A key question in my mind regarding urban air mobility is whether regulations will allow autonomy.
Drone delivery is likely in the 2020s.
The big story in space technology for the next 10 years is Starship, as it will enable just about everything else.
Starlink jako money printer - řešení pro 4 procenta rurálních lidí, in flights wifi a net na kontejnerovych lodich. 40x vetsi zisky nez ma SpaceX z vesmirneho byznysu, tj rozvoj SpaceX
těžení na asteroidech v této děkádě nebude
chaos
I could easily see, for example, the US deciding we actually don’t need an alliance with the Saudis after all, considering they are journalist-dismembering savages. If the US pulls out of Saudi Arabia, war between the Saudis and the Iranians becomes likely. Which means oil shipments to Asia get disrupted. Which means global chaos.
auta
One area where batteries may not work (aside from aviation, already discussed) is trucking. Towing really heavy loads requires a lot of energy—hydrogen fuel cells will be more suited to interstate trucking. The transition from diesel to hydrogen in trucking will likely not be as automatic as the transition from gas to batteries in cars. It’s possible that truckers will need a bit of a push.
air pollution will plummet
Fewer premature births, fewer cases of asthma, fewer cancers, fewer mystery illnesses.
autonomic vehicles
A decade is a long time, so I am reasonably confident it will happen in the 2020s. It could save a lot of lives. Autonomy, too, will accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, as fleet companies will prefer the low maintenance costs of battery or fuel cell vehicles.
IT
custom silliocon, systems on a chip .. revoluce podobna prechodu z jednotlivych polovodicu na integrovane obvody
The 2020s will be the decade that makes or breaks cryptocurrency. - cautiously optimistic
augmented reality will be widely deployed
The need for the glasses to understand context could result in much smarter digital assistants than today’s Siri, Alexa,
Miscellaneous
I have an irrational love of vertical farming.
Speaking of food, I predict plant-based “meat” will flop, but lab-grown real meat is worth keeping an eye on. Until then, eat humanely-raised grass-finished cows.
It all depends on execution. The underlying science is there. The engineers are willing. Even the funding is available in most cases. But, as a society, how much urgency do we feel? Our culture does not prioritize progress—it fights, destructively, for status. And our politics reflects our culture.
I want to go faster.
Notes on technology in the 2020s | Eli Dourado
https://elidourado.com/blog/notes-on-technology-2020s/