TUHO:

Frontiers | Ecosystem Impacts and Productive Capacity of a Multi-Species Pastured Livestock System | Sustainable Food Systems
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2020.544984/full


a co je to ten potencial? :)

btw hezka ilustrace toho stretu ekosystemovyho nahledu (cykly ekosystemu jsou dulezity) vs civilizacniho nahledu (primarni je produkce bilkovin / komodit / etc pro civilizaci) -- coz je pro civilizaci spatne resitelnej problem, protoze civilizace nezna limit driv nez uz je pozde (overshoot, degradace zakladny zdroju, ale impakty odlozene casove a mistne)


White Oak Pasture’s Harris looks beyond what he calls “scientific quibbles” over the amount of carbon sequestered. To that end, this life cycle analysis doesn’t account for the other soil, water and microbial benefits regenerative agriculture provides, neither does it account for the negative impacts of conventional beef production. The calculations around conventional beef production system has, for example, never included the cost of antibiotic resistance, even though 80 percent of antibiotics go into animal production, says Rangan. For example, she points to the human and environmental health concerns that stem from managing the manure.

vs.

Waite, of WRI, says he would love to see the conversation evolve from “how do we make agriculture regenerative,” as if that’s the silver bullet, to “how can we feed a growing population while greatly reducing agricultural emissions and increasing land-based carbon sinks, and building resilience to climate change.” If we do that, he says, then regenerative practices clearly fit in to the picture, but aren’t the whole picture.

cili soucasti problemu je, ze resi jinej problem... jeden resi management produkcniho ekosystemu, pricemz ten ekosystem mu dava limity, druhej se na to diva z pohledu civilizace, kdy je to narok civilizace (eg 10 miliard lidi), co mu dava "limity" ... bohuzel, limity toho co chceme nelze nastavit nad limity toho, co je mozne (biosystemem vygenerovat). ... tyhle studie vyzadujou, aby se koncepcne slo daleko dal.

btw trochu skepse k potencialu regenerativnijo hospodareni

In recent years, awareness of regenerative practices have been picking up as several groups rush to create labels and certification schemes for farms that claim to be improving the soil and working to draw carbon out of the atmosphere. With so few quantitative studies yet conducted, however, the Quantis claims yielded a fair bit of criticism. But it hadn’t been peer reviewed—until now.

In November, a group of eight scientists published a comprehensive, peer-reviewed life cycle analysis on the research done at White Oak Pastures. The findings confirm that multi-species pasture rotations sequester enough carbon in soil to create a greenhouse gas footprint that is 66 percent lower than conventional, commodity production of beef. The catch is that the regenerative approach requires 2.5 times more land.

The difference, says study co-author Paige Stanley, occurred because the Quantis analysts applied the rate of carbon sequestration solely to beef, while this paper included nutrient inputs and emissions from all the animals in the system.

“It’s a hell of a lot of carbon,” says study co-author Jason Rowntree, a researcher at Michigan State University. “But when you combine all of the different proteins, the emission footprint is considerably lower, with a land tradeoff that must be addressed.”

https://civileats.com/2021/01/06/a-new-study-on-regenerative-grazing-complicates-climate-optimism

nejaka kultura pro globetrottera a njala ,))

Zabíjejte popírače klimatických změn | Švandovo divadlo
https://www.svandovodivadlo.cz/inscenace/658/zabijejte-popirace-klimatickych-zmen

PAD: za mě, u novostaveb by měla být povinnost splachovat dešťovou.

technooptimistický Eli Dourado (nemá ani stránku na wikipedii, takže nevím jak moc je věrohodný)

geotermální

What is more plausible (než vítr, slunce, jádro, které diskutoval výše) this decade is enhanced and advanced geothermal systems. The legacy geothermal industry is sleepy, tapping energy at traditional volcanic hydrothermal hotspots—forget about it. The next generation of the industry, however, is a bunch of scrappy startups manned by folks leaving the oil and gas industry. The startups I have spoken to think with today’s technology they can crack 3.5¢/kWh without being confined to volcanic regions. With relatively minor advancements in drilling technology compared to what we’ve seen over the last decade, advanced geothermal could reach 2¢/kWh and become scale to become viable just about anywhere on the planet. Collectively, the startups are talking about figures like hundreds of gigawatts of generation by 2030. I’m watching this space closely; the Heat Beat blog is a great way to stay in the loop. As I wrote last month, permitting reform will be important.

fúze

Fusion continues to make technical progress. I expect we will get a demonstration of energy-positive fusion in this decade from one of several fusion startups or perhaps Lockheed Martin’s compact fusion reactor. But again: a demonstration is far from a change that transforms society. It will take further decades to deploy reactors onto the grid. By the time fusion gets there, the energy market will be quite different from when we started working on fusion reactors in the 1940s. Wind, solar, and hopefully geothermal will make electricity pretty cheap, and fusion will struggle to compete.

Consider: around half the cost of an advanced geothermal plant is drilling, and half is conversion equipment. Suppose the plant is amortized over 30 years (although many geothermal plants last longer), and after that period the conversion equipment needs to be replaced. But the hole in the ground does not need to be replaced! That means for the next 30 years, electricity can be generated at half the initial cost. Geothermal wells we dig this decade could be producing at less than 1¢/kWh by the 2050s. That is a tough market for fusion to break into. But fusion will still be a great source of power in applications where other sources aren’t available, such as in space.

letectvi

Hydrogen fuel is much better than batteries, but still not as energy dense as fossil fuels or SAF, and so my money is on SAF, and particularly on fuel made from CO₂ pulled from the atmosphere. It is easy to convert atmospheric CO₂ to ethanol in solution; and it is easy to upgrade ethanol into other fuels. But it is hard to separate ethanol from water without using a lot of energy—unless you have an advanced membrane as Prometheus Fuels does. I have written about Prometheus before and continue to follow them closely. Their technology could decarbonize aviation very suddenly.

huge fan of supersonics / ale to se nestihne ve 2020

urban air mobility companies / asi to na co veri XCHAOS

A key question in my mind regarding urban air mobility is whether regulations will allow autonomy.

Drone delivery is likely in the 2020s.

The big story in space technology for the next 10 years is Starship, as it will enable just about everything else.

Starlink jako money printer - řešení pro 4 procenta rurálních lidí, in flights wifi a net na kontejnerovych lodich. 40x vetsi zisky nez ma SpaceX z vesmirneho byznysu, tj rozvoj SpaceX

těžení na asteroidech v této děkádě nebude

chaos

I could easily see, for example, the US deciding we actually don’t need an alliance with the Saudis after all, considering they are journalist-dismembering savages. If the US pulls out of Saudi Arabia, war between the Saudis and the Iranians becomes likely. Which means oil shipments to Asia get disrupted. Which means global chaos.

auta

One area where batteries may not work (aside from aviation, already discussed) is trucking. Towing really heavy loads requires a lot of energy—hydrogen fuel cells will be more suited to interstate trucking. The transition from diesel to hydrogen in trucking will likely not be as automatic as the transition from gas to batteries in cars. It’s possible that truckers will need a bit of a push.

air pollution will plummet

Fewer premature births, fewer cases of asthma, fewer cancers, fewer mystery illnesses.

autonomic vehicles

A decade is a long time, so I am reasonably confident it will happen in the 2020s. It could save a lot of lives. Autonomy, too, will accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, as fleet companies will prefer the low maintenance costs of battery or fuel cell vehicles.

IT

custom silliocon, systems on a chip .. revoluce podobna prechodu z jednotlivych polovodicu na integrovane obvody

The 2020s will be the decade that makes or breaks cryptocurrency. - cautiously optimistic

augmented reality will be widely deployed
The need for the glasses to understand context could result in much smarter digital assistants than today’s Siri, Alexa,

Miscellaneous
I have an irrational love of vertical farming.

Speaking of food, I predict plant-based “meat” will flop, but lab-grown real meat is worth keeping an eye on. Until then, eat humanely-raised grass-finished cows.

It all depends on execution. The underlying science is there. The engineers are willing. Even the funding is available in most cases. But, as a society, how much urgency do we feel? Our culture does not prioritize progress—it fights, destructively, for status. And our politics reflects our culture.

I want to go faster.

Notes on technology in the 2020s | Eli Dourado
https://elidourado.com/blog/notes-on-technology-2020s/

PAD: mohl by to byt udaj opravdu k ty pitny, tzn. vycisteny a domineralizovany vode, pak by byl limit tej mineralizacni filtr pripadne upravna pH.

PAD: popravde ted nevim, co je to presne za udaj. vstup kondenzatu zalezi na velikosti budovy (mnozstvi prochazejiciho vzduchu), destovka je omezena strechou/strechama a akumulacnim prostorem, ta ultrafiltrace (seccua urspring) neni vubec limitem... takze nevim, muzu se zeptat nebo ti hodit vypocty pro nasi budovu. prakticky vsechna ta voda nakonec odchazi vyparem z komposteru nebo spotrebovanim v kuchyni. a mezitim se vyuzije na mycku a prani, pak splachnuti. voda na myti v podstate cirkuluje, jen cast odchazi jako odpad z ultrafiltrace, takze ten obeh je co se tyce potrebnyho vstupu hodne nizko.

TUHO: to je asi na nejakyho chemika, ale fosfaty škodily hlavně tim, že hnojily naše potoky a pak se nám tam mnohem více rozjížděly sinice a tak. Mimochodem za zákaz fosfátů se u nás zasadila tahle pani:
https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yvonna_Gaillyov%C3%A1?wprov=sfla1

TUHO: odpad jde pres hrunou filtraci a lapac tuku, pak s s nim splachuje, to jde do komposteru, voda se odparuje. fosfaty jsiu snad zakazany, a kazdopadne, cim vic je materialovej cyklus lokalizovanej, tim vic clovrk ma na taliri co do nej pousti, to je jedna z motivaci to delat :)

TADEAS: pracka, mycka - odpad z mycky se da kompstovat? :-o mel jsem za to, ze fosfaty z mycich prostredku v mycce jsou celkem unfriendly...

LINKOS: viz TUHO TADEAS, nejspis budem pilotni projekt (koukni na web, ty systemy jsou tam podrobne popsany), zdroj vody pro dum je pouze destovka plus kondenzat z TC (nemalej zdroj), jde to pres ultrafiltraci (seccua) a mineralizaci, mas top kvalitni pitnou vodu. voda z myti se zpetne cisti a recirkuluje taky timhle zpusobem. pracka, mycka - tam probiha jen hruby cisteni, voda ze poouziba do lowflush zachodu, jejich obsah se kompostuje (indoor kompostery). je to takovy integrovany nakladani s vodou a odpadama. v podstate vstup akorat destovka a vzdusna vlhkost, vystup procesu kompost, bioplyn, digestat. so cool ,)