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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    GOJATLA: "You got a job ahead, you gotta buck up, it's a great life!" :D
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    GOJATLA: shefik limity neuznava .)
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    viz třeba:
    Storm Approaching! Overshoot, the Energy Conundrum and Climate Change
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPV7uW7LxFQ
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    SHEFIK: No, shodneme se na tom, že je to složitější, než to vypadá na první pohled. Klima krizi IMHO nejde pochopit bez pochopení procesu: levná energie -> rozvoj civilizace -> overshoot -> zánik civilizace. Ano, ropa je naše potrava, díky ní je nás 8 mld, ale její splodiny jsou zároveň náš hrob. Ropné společnosti to vědí, ale už 50 let lidem lžou a brání přechodu na udržitelnou ekonomiku. Žádný vděk si nezaslouží.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    GOJATLA: nektery predikce vyjdou, nektery ne. nejde ani tak o chybny model, jde o to, ze lide, jako spolecenstvi nejsou deterministicky, stejne tak vesmir, ve kterem zijeme. budoucnost neni definovana predem.

    zrovna to co jsem vypichnul byl odhad o tom, kolik lidi rocne bude umirat na hlad. vypichnul jsem to schvalne, protoze se to melo uskutecnit od roku 1985 (je 26 let po a nedeje se to) kazdy rok a reagoval jsem na prispevek PER2, ktery stavi do cernyho svetla ropny spolecnosti.

    je na miste si polozit otazku, jestli nahodou ropa nehrala tu hlavni roli v tom, ze tech 100-200 milionu rocne hlady neumira. takze soucasny narky, ze za vsechno spatny muzou ropny spolecnosti, protoze se zacne umirat ve velkym jsou dost mozna postaveny na hlavu. jestli to neni spis naopak, ze ropa nam dala cas vybudovat akcelerovany kolektivni vedomi (internet apod.), ktery nas z tech sracek nakonec dostane, uz jen tim, ze jsme schopny problem komplexne posoudit, komunikovat o nem a mit zasoby energie na transformaci. buhvi, jestli bez ropy bysme vubec byli tak daleko, jako je organizovana komunikace na globalni urovni

    cimz neospravedlnuju chovani ropnejch spolecnosti ohledne sireni dezinformaci/lobbyingu, je vcelku pochopitelny, ze kopaly za svy zajmy, ale vzdycky je fajn zohlednit podivat se na to, jak spolu veci souvisi, nez odsoudit jednu konkretni vec a ukazat prstem na vinika
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    SHEFIK: Zajímavé, nepsal to Skopeček? Žádné predikce nejsou 100% jisté, takže když to nevychází podle našich představ, tak je to nejspíš chybný model?

    Zrovna Limits to growth vycházejí docela pěkně, modely z roku 1970.

    Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse | Graham Turner and Cathy Alexander | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse

    Stejně tak první klimatické modely.

    Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming? - Carbon Brief
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    FB-IMG-1636095982712
    GLOBETROTTER
    GLOBETROTTER --- ---
    MARSHUS: Nějak to ti Demokrati holt maj v hlavičce pomotaný. Na jednu stranu uhlíkovou neutralitu, na druhou stranu pokrokové kryptoměny. Že to nějak nejde dohromady, je jim pokrokářsky jedno.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    PER2: s budoucnosti se to ma tak... je v budoucnosti... napr. predikce z roku 1970:

    “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

    Why Didn't the First Earth Day's Predictions Come True? It's Complicated | Science | Smithsonian Magazine
    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/why-didnt-first-earth-days-predictions-come-true-its-complicated-180958820/
    MARSHUS
    MARSHUS --- ---
    GLOBETROTTER: tyvole jak kdyby neexistovalo krypto který nepotřebuje půl planety...
    GLOBETROTTER
    GLOBETROTTER --- ---
    New york má uhlíkový problém... Oh, wait, ony se ty bitcoiny určitě těží někde jinde
    Chci první tři výplaty v bitcoinech, poručil si nový newyorský starosta Adams | Svět | Lidovky.cz
    https://www.lidovky.cz/svet/bitcoin-vyplata-starosta-new-york-usa.A211104_214115_ln_zahranici_kov
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The Role of Energy Return for Energy Invested (EROEI) in Dissipative Autocatalytic Systems[v1] | Preprints
    https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202110.0279/v1

    In this paper we examine the concept of EROEI from a general viewpoint, giving insights on a wider range of applications. In general, natural resources can be seen as energy stocks characterized by a “potential” that can be exploited by creating intermediate stocks. This transformation is typical of dissipative systems and for the first time we found that Lotka-Volterra model, usually confined to the study of biology of populations, can represent a powerful tool to estimate EROEI for some such systems, providing an understanding of the reason for the overexploitation phenomenon and, in some cases, the collapse of the exploiting system.
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    What Big Oil knew about climate change, in its own words
    https://phys.org/news/2021-10-big-oil-knew-climate-words.html

    1959: "Whenever you burn conventional fuel," Teller explained, "you create carbon dioxide. … Its presence in the atmosphere causes a greenhouse effect." If the world kept using fossil fuels, the ice caps would begin to melt, raising sea levels. Eventually, "all the coastal cities would be covered,"

    1965: "The substance of the report," Ikard told the industry audience, "is that there is still time to save the world's peoples from the catastrophic consequences of pollution, but time is running out." He continued that "One of the most important predictions of the report is that carbon dioxide is being added to the earth's atmosphere by the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas at such a rate that by the year 2000 the heat balance will be so modified as possibly to cause marked changes in climate."

    Ikard noted that the report had found that a "nonpolluting means of powering automobiles, buses, and trucks is likely to become a national necessity."

    By the late 1970s, the American Petroleum Institute had formed a secret committee called the "CO2 and Climate Task Force," which included representatives of many of the major oil companies, to privately monitor and discuss the latest developments in climate science.

    In 1980, the task force invited a scientist from Stanford University, John Laurmann, to brief them on the state of climate science. Today, we have a copy of Laurmann's presentation, which warned that if fossil fuels continued to be used, global warming would be "barely noticeable" by 2005, but by the 2060s would have "globally catastrophic effects."

    Exxon had a secretive research program too. In 1981, one of its managers, Roger Cohen, sent an internal memo observing that the company's long-term business plans could "produce effects which will indeed be catastrophic (at least for a substantial fraction of the earth's population)."

    In 1986, the Dutch oil company Shell finished an internal report nearly 100 pages long, predicting that global warming from fossil fuels would cause changes that would be "the greatest in recorded history," including "destructive floods," abandonment of entire countries and even forced migration around the world. That report was stamped "CONFIDENTIAL" and only brought to light in 2018 by Jelmer Mommers, a Dutch journalist.

    1979: Exxon had privately studied options for avoiding global warming. It found that with immediate action, if the industry moved away from fossil fuels and instead focused on renewable energy, fossil fuel pollution could start to decline in the 1990s and a major climate crisis could be avoided.

    1989: the fossil fuel industry created something called the Global Climate Coalition—but it wasn't an environmental group like the name suggests; instead, it worked to sow doubt about climate change and lobbied lawmakers to block clean energy legislation and climate treaties throughout the 1990s.
    JINDRICH
    JINDRICH --- ---
    Jiří Koželouh
    Takže nová vláda a konec uhlí: ani 2030 podle předvolebních slibů @market_a nebo @MJureka
    či @PiratIvanBartos. Ani 2033 podle volebního programu PirSTAN a @Vit_Rakusan. Ale návrat k 2038, který neschválila ani vláda AB, protože je to nereálně pozdě. To je hrozná ostuda.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    Díky nově přijatým závazkům světových zemí bude možné globální oteplení zastavit na +1,8 °C
    https://www.czechsight.cz/diky-nove-prijatym-zavazkum-svetovych-zemi-bude-mozne-globalni-otepleni-zastavit-na-1-8degc/

    Závazky by byly.
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    YMLADRIS: nemají, ale Rusko sklízí co zaselo. Tak dlouho rozjebavali západ dezinfem, až si to dojebali i doma. Min lidí menší emise.

    A u nás z toho nejlepší managér na světě, svou nekompetenci a potřebou se do všeho srat, udělal kulturní válku, a ty jak známo nemívají vítěze...
    JINDRICH
    JINDRICH --- ---
    Make a #PromiseToThePlanet today
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auNpMyUJfVI
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    SHEFIK: USA Čína Indie a Rusko už mají po pandemii?

    .. ignoruj mě ve skutečnosti oceňuji tvou snahu tady nějak pozvednout morálku je fajn že to děláš. Jen prostě to že řešení existují bohužel nic neznamená
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    KEB: organizujou zachranu sveta, nemaj cas .]
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHEFIK: vubec ne. ja ocekavam serii diskontinuit, ktery pokud nebudou fatalni tu planetarni civilizaci zrodit muzou, ale bude to brutalni proces uceni... kulantne receno
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam