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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: sorry, 0.004 z celku, tj. 0.4 procenta.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    RADIQAL: v celkovejch proporcich private jety delaj asi 0.004 procenta dle rychlyho orientacniho propoctu, ale zase proporcne jde o podobne uzkou skupinu lidi (max stovky tisic lidi) ... takze ten graf tohle v tom extremu akorat ukazuje

    During the past year, private jet travel has emitted over 26 megatons of CO2, 1 megaton of CH4, and 0.22 megatons of N2O. This equates to a total of approximately 184 megatons of CO2-equivalents. This figure is roughly equivalent to the reduction in energy-related emissions in 2019 that the U.S. strived to achieve (EIA, 2020). The level of increase in emissions from pre-pandemic levels to 2021 were also significant. In 2019, private jet travel accounted for only 6.3% of total aviation related emissions in the U.S. This share was relatively stable from 2014 to 2019; however, the pandemic induced boom coupled with the decline in commercial travel has resulted in private jet travel growing its share of emissions from 6.3 to 7.9% of total commercial plus private aviation emissions - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8888033/#s0045

    The global aviation industry produces around 2.1% of all human-induced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8888033/#s0045

    Total greenhouse gas emissions reached 40.8 Gt of CO2 equivalent (CO2eq) in 2021 - https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2021-2
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    Climate change is intensifying the water cycle, bringing more powerful storms and flooding

    Climate change is intensifying the water cycle, bringing more powerful storms and flooding
    https://phys.org/news/2022-08-climate-powerful-storms.html

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

    https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    RADIQAL: offsetovanie vo forme vysadby stromov zas tolko energie nespotrebuje, jako jo bolia ta potom vecer ruky a mozno si nalozis na obed vepro-knedlo-zelo miesto lahkeho letneho salatu z lokalnych surovin, ale co do nejakej skonzumovanej fosilnej energie to je zanedbatelne, takisto ked si bohaty cech miesto letenky na maledivy necha nainstalovat solary na strechu, tak zacal offsetovat, tam uz ta vstupna energia nejaka je, ale uz 5 rokov dozadu sme videli studie, ktore ukazovali ze panel sa energeticky zaplati za 4-5 rokov, pri dnesnych ucinnostiach to bude aj polovica
    RADIQAL
    RADIQAL --- ---
    DZODZO: Milion doláčů je směšný. Miliarda taky. Offsetovanie je dead end, protože samo o sobě spotřebovává velké množství energie.

    @TADEAS: tezko rict, kde je hranice “okázalé spotřeby” a kde se do těch multimiliard počítaj “běžný” businessy. (AB na jednu stranu drtí českó krajinu subvencovanejma monokultura, na druhé straně peče (kolik?) 50% našeho chleba).
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    DZODZO: nedival jsem se, ale ciste z pohledu toho rozlozeni to stoupa masivne az u nejake ultra high net worth osob, nevim ted presne, ale rekneme na koruny miliardari a vejs, podle me to pak dela ta infrastruktura kterou vyuzivaj, tzn private jety, nevim co vic. otazka je, jestli infrastruktura typu private jet musi existovat, jestli lze delat vysokou civilizacni synchronizaci i bez ni, kolik tech letu je lifestylovejch vs pracovnich (dulezitejch pro organizaci civilizace)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    #moreCry

    Bilance četnosti hurikánů přinesla velké překvapení. Z historického hlediska je současnost extrémně klidným obdobím. Od roku 1860, tedy krátce po začátku systematického sledování hurikánů, těchto silných bouří v Atlantiku ubývá a nyní jsou na svém dlouhodobém minimu. V nejrušnějších obdobích bývaly hurikány kolem Baham až osmkrát četnější.

    Opravdu žijeme v době extrémně četných hurikánů? Modré díry vypovídají o opaku – VTM.cz
    https://vtm.zive.cz/clanky/opravdu-zijeme-v-dobe-extremne-cetnych-hurikanu-modre-diry-vypovidaji-o-opaku/sc-870-a-217568/default.aspx
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    TADEAS: hm otazne ci do tych individual emissions zapocitavaju vylozene iba emisie alebo aj nejake offsetovanie, napr. ked bilionar zaplati vyskum carbon-capture technologie, ktora odsaje polovicu jeho emisii alebo posle milion dolarov na sadenie stromov
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    THE_DARKNESS: takový obecnosti, co už víš dávno

    Jak v době globálních klimatických změn zůstat příčetný
    https://denikn.cz/930667/jak-v-dobe-globalnich-klimatickych-zmen-zustat-pricetny/?cst=ff9277b32a7c613204a5254eafb0d6ee4399e370
    THE_DARKNESS
    THE_DARKNESS --- ---
    TADEAS: Generation Dread? V té otevřené části článku není zmíněn název. Nešel by článek odemnkout? resp., jsou v něm nějaká konkrétní doporučení? díky
    L4MA
    L4MA --- ---
    TADEAS: pekne se ta retorika posunula. myslim ze pred trema rokama by "accepting the end of humanity" nebylo vnimano jako konstruktivni element reseni... :)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    As my son choked on bushfire smoke it was clear our most vulnerable are feeling our climate negligence | Nic Seton | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/31/as-my-son-choked-on-bushfire-smoke-it-was-clear-our-most-vulnerable-are-feeling-our-climate-negligence
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Jak v době globálních klimatických změn zůstat příčetný
    https://denikn.cz/930667/jak-v-dobe-globalnich-klimatickych-zmen-zustat-pricetny/?ref=inc
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Heatwaves put classic Alpine hiking routes off-limits | Mountaineering | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/31/heatwaves-put-classic-alpine-hiking-routes-off-limits
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    paliativni proces

    When Time Is Short by Timothy Beal: 9780807090008 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books
    https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/567135/when-time-is-short-by-tim-beal/

    Is accepting the end of humanity the key to climate action? This scholar thinks so. | Grist
    https://grist.org/culture/when-time-is-short-review-timothy-beal-climate-doomer-religion/

    the scientific consensus is that it is still possible to mitigate the worst effects of climate change, assuming we take drastic and immediate action to reform our societies and economies. Wouldn’t convincing yourself that the world is ending lead people to do the opposite — to throw up their hands and go on with their lives as usual? 

    Beal argues the reverse. Reducing emissions and conserving natural resources are all things we should be doing anyway, he told Grist, but it’s hard to break out of the systems (say, capitalism) that got us into this mess in the first place. Accepting that human civilization is finite, he says, will challenge us to change our priorities, from worshiping extraction and growth to uplifting the most marginalized in society. 

    Beal’s thesis draws heavily on the works of scholars like cultural anthropologist Ernest Becker, whose book The Denial of Death made the case that humans survive by refusing to accept their own mortality. The human-centric mythology of many religions, Beal writes, has convinced people that society will persist forever, no matter what damage we do to our habitat. Some Christians, for example, have used a passage from the biblical book of Genesis that instructs humans to “subdue” the Earth and have “dominion” over other living beings as proof that natural resources like oil and trees were made to be mined with abandon, without fear of the consequences. 

    But just as religion has helped get us into this mess, Beal believes it can get us out of it. He points out that other parts of the Bible put animals on equal footing with humans, and assign inherent value to the land itself, rather than just as a tool for humanity to exploit — an interpretation shared by some evangelical Christians who view “creation care” as a sacred duty. Beal also argues that spiritually minded people should embrace “dark green religion,” belief systems that emphasize the ways humans are interconnected with all other living things. 

    Again, this philosophical shift is intended to foster mercy, not hope. Beal envisions humanity adopting a “palliative” approach to the future, one modeled on end-of-life care administered to terminally ill patients. By positing that the end is coming (as a result of our consumerist ideals, no less), this palliative approach neatly shuts down policies that promise prosperity through infinite growth. Even climate solutions touted by Biden and the Democratic Party miss the mark in this case; he argues they frame climate action in the language of job creation and benefits to the economy. 

    ...

    When Time Is Short is the latest addition to a rich body of work on what eco-theologian Michael Dowd termed a “post-doom mentality” or sustainability scholar Jem Bendell calls “deep adaptation” — the idea that if you accept what is inevitable, you can develop a true sense of empathy and a plan for how to respond positively. Pagan environmental activist John Halstead argued in his 2019 book, Another End of the World is Possible, that we need to abandon the obsessive focus on growth and capitalism that has driven us to the brink of collapse. (A 2021 book by the same name, written by a trio of Belgian ecologists and environmental advocates, calls this approach “collapsing well”). 

    ...

    For better or for worse, Beal’s message comes at a critical time. Climate anxiety is rising; as reports of droughts, fires, and floods dominate the news, climate change is no longer an abstract concept for many people, but a very real and present threat. At the same time, politicians and corporations don’t seem seriously interested in either stopping the crisis from worsening or mitigating its effects; the chances of actually limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), as outlined in the Paris Agreement, are now essentially nil. In one study from last year, 56 percent of teens and young adults said they believed that “humanity is doomed.”

    Once we’ve grieved for what we will lose, Beal writes, we can begin the work of doing something with the short time we have left. Given that reality, though, he acknowledges that not everyone may grieve the same way. Beal’s book was written before Don’t Look Up came out, but it references another disaster movie — Lars von Trier’s 2011 film “Melancholia,” about two sisters who struggle to cope in the days before a rogue planet collides with the Earth. While one sister is “paralyzed by depression and anxiety,” the other “gains a new sense of clear-minded peace and composure.” Religion, he argues, can provide a framework for action to alleviate unnecessary suffering as the world collapses around us. 
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    ‘Wake-up call’ for climate-sceptic Czechs as blaze devastates national park | Czech Republic | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/30/wake-up-call-for-climate-sceptic-czechs-as-blaze-devastates-national-park
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    2022 The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization
    https://www.amazon.com/End-World-Just-Beginning-Globalization/dp/006323047X


    ‘The End of the World is Just the Beginning’ and the value of a NZ National Catastrophe Resilience Strategy – Adapt Research Ltd
    https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2022/07/18/the-end-of-the-world-is-just-the-beginning-and-the-value-of-a-nz-national-catastrophe-resilience-strategy/

    An international demographic time bomb that is already underway, interacts with US retreat from globalisation, and this sets off a cascade of trade uncoupling that sees only the US (NAFTA) and a few very select locales maintain industrialisation.

    This is the scenario Peter Zeihan contemplates in his new book ‘The End of the World is Just the Beginning’ (Harper Business, June 2022). Zeihan uses this scenario, which he argues is very plausible, to present an extremely engaging overview of the interconnected dependencies of the industrialised world, their historical origins, and how they will end.

    The lesson is that immense global interdependencies across transport, finance, energy, industrial inputs, manufacturing, and agriculture are extremely fragile to the scenario he describes. Unmitigated the outcome could be deindustrialisation, and hence de-civilisation for much of the world
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Mark Lynas: Don't Look Up: Is Climate Change an Extinction-Level Event?
    https://youtu.be/5Gc3GHDJM9Q


    In the movie Don't Look Up, humanity dithers when faced with an extinction-level threat from a comet and is wiped out. Designed explicitly as an analogy for what the moviemakers see as our collective lack of response to the existential risk of climate change, how accurate is this comparison? Mark Lynas, the climate author who has recently released an updated version of his award-winning book Six Degrees, reviews the latest evidence as to whether climate breakdown can be considered a planetary-scale extinction threat and whether human civilisation or even humanity as a species it significantly at risk this century.

    Mark Lynas is the author of several books on the environment, including High Tide, Six Degrees, The God Species, Nuclear 2.0 and Seeds of Science. His most recent publication, in June 2020, was ‘Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency’. This is an entirely new update of the original 2007 Six Degrees which won the prestigious Royal Society science books prize. The original Six Degrees was translated into 22 languages and was also adapted into a documentary broadcast on the National Geographic Channel. He also received the Breakthrough Paradigm Award in 2012.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2022 – Adapt Research Ltd
    https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2022/05/05/cambridge-conference-on-catastrophic-risk-2022/

    https://adaptresearch.files.wordpress.com/2022/05/211019
    -cser-lightning-talk_island-refuges_final.pdf

    Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk - Day 2
    https://youtu.be/Sw5khDf5phI?t=23615


    TADEAS:
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