2022 The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization
https://www.amazon.com/End-World-Just-Beginning-Globalization/dp/006323047X


‘The End of the World is Just the Beginning’ and the value of a NZ National Catastrophe Resilience Strategy – Adapt Research Ltd
https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2022/07/18/the-end-of-the-world-is-just-the-beginning-and-the-value-of-a-nz-national-catastrophe-resilience-strategy/

An international demographic time bomb that is already underway, interacts with US retreat from globalisation, and this sets off a cascade of trade uncoupling that sees only the US (NAFTA) and a few very select locales maintain industrialisation.

This is the scenario Peter Zeihan contemplates in his new book ‘The End of the World is Just the Beginning’ (Harper Business, June 2022). Zeihan uses this scenario, which he argues is very plausible, to present an extremely engaging overview of the interconnected dependencies of the industrialised world, their historical origins, and how they will end.

The lesson is that immense global interdependencies across transport, finance, energy, industrial inputs, manufacturing, and agriculture are extremely fragile to the scenario he describes. Unmitigated the outcome could be deindustrialisation, and hence de-civilisation for much of the world

Mark Lynas: Don't Look Up: Is Climate Change an Extinction-Level Event?
https://youtu.be/5Gc3GHDJM9Q


In the movie Don't Look Up, humanity dithers when faced with an extinction-level threat from a comet and is wiped out. Designed explicitly as an analogy for what the moviemakers see as our collective lack of response to the existential risk of climate change, how accurate is this comparison? Mark Lynas, the climate author who has recently released an updated version of his award-winning book Six Degrees, reviews the latest evidence as to whether climate breakdown can be considered a planetary-scale extinction threat and whether human civilisation or even humanity as a species it significantly at risk this century.

Mark Lynas is the author of several books on the environment, including High Tide, Six Degrees, The God Species, Nuclear 2.0 and Seeds of Science. His most recent publication, in June 2020, was ‘Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency’. This is an entirely new update of the original 2007 Six Degrees which won the prestigious Royal Society science books prize. The original Six Degrees was translated into 22 languages and was also adapted into a documentary broadcast on the National Geographic Channel. He also received the Breakthrough Paradigm Award in 2012.

Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2022 – Adapt Research Ltd
https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2022/05/05/cambridge-conference-on-catastrophic-risk-2022/

https://adaptresearch.files.wordpress.com/2022/05/211019
-cser-lightning-talk_island-refuges_final.pdf

Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk - Day 2
https://youtu.be/Sw5khDf5phI?t=23615


TADEAS:

citadely, regionalni off-grid


Island refuges – Adapt Research Ltd
https://adaptresearchwriting.com/island-refuges/

Our work to date has been largely conceptual and theoretical, although we are currently undertaking an analysis of food exports in the New Zealand setting and the logistics of redirecting these locally, under circumstances of reduced yield, in a refuge situation.

Next we want to identify a range of concrete steps that specific islands can take to improve their resilience to global catastrophe, and examine the cost-effectiveness and ethical dimensions of these approaches.

- Undertake case studies of selected islands to determine what investments and developments are yet needed to ensure enduring self-sufficiency

- Undertake case studies of promising island refuges to determine which key agricultural, industrial or fabrication technologies might be developed to maximise potential to reboot civilisation

- Investigate the ethical aspects of island refuges, in particular stranded citizens, equity, representation of humanity, lifeboat ethics, and business harm from ‘false alarms’.

- Determine the day-to-day benefits that might accrue to islands that address some of the above issues, eg improved public health, economic growth, and resilience to common natural disasters.

- Undertake cost-effectiveness analysis of the most promising interventions

We aim to spread the idea that islands are well placed to survive some of the most devastating catastrophes. But more than that, we want to help ensure that some islands are prepared enough that their populations will flourish even under these seriously adverse circumstances.

Ultimately we envision a think tank directly addressing the issue of islands as refuge, an accessible maturity model (a play book!) of actions island societies could take to optimise resilience to pandemics and nuclear winter, and a global network of island policymakers sharing ideas.

Ensuring flourishing hubs of complex thriving society can protect the long-term flourishing of humanity.


TADEAS:
TADEAS:

PER2:

U.S. Senate Deal is a Historic Opportunity to Address the Climate
https://www.nature.org/en-us/newsroom/us-senate-deal-climate-crisis-inflation-reduction/

pro sirsi temata ohledne planety a intra/extra planetarniho viz [planetarita - 'making life planetary']

TADEAS:

The Anthropocene as Planetarity in Deep Time | Living with Tiny Aliens: The Image of God for the Anthropocene | Fordham Scholarship Online | Oxford Academic
https://academic.oup.com/fordham-scholarship-online/book/37812/chapter-abstract/332280648?redirectedFrom=fulltext

In light of contemporary accounts of the Anthropocene, this chapter re-figures the relationship between human being and nature, such that nature is not the dialectical antithesis to human being and our reflexivity with nature is not easily marginalized. It proposes a simple definition for this relationship: human beings are planetary creatures in deep time. This definition indicates how the Anthropocene disorients us both in terms of the spatial (i.e., planetary) and temporal (i.e., deep time) boundedness of our subjectivity. Building on supporting ideas—‘planetarity’ and a ‘Sapiezoic’ eon—that help us imagine the implications of the Anthropocene’s disorientation of our subjectivity, this chapter articulates the potential symbolic power of the Anthropocene to imagine human beings as intra-active agents.

TADEAS:

The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.13398

we suggest that it is useful to rank island nations as potential refuges for ensuring long-term human survival in the face of catastrophic pandemics (or other relevant existential threats). Prioritization could identify the several island nations that are most suitable for targeting social and political preparations and further investment in resiliency. We outline a prioritization methodology and as an initial demonstration, we then provide example rankings by considering 20 sovereign island states (all with populations greater than 250,000 and no land borders). Results describe each nation in nine resilience-relevant domains covering location, population, resources, and society according to published data. The results indicate that the most suitable island nations for refuge status are Australia, followed closely by New Zealand, and then Iceland, with other nations all well behind (including the relatively high-income ones of Malta and Japan). Nevertheless, some key contextual factors remain relatively unexplored. These include the capacity of the jurisdiction to rapidly close its borders when the emerging threat was first detected elsewhere, and whether or not large subnational islands should be the preferred focus for refuge design (e.g., the Australian state of Tasmania, the island of Hokkaido in Japan, or the South Island of New Zealand). Overall, this work provides conceptual thinking with some initial example analysis.

PER2: njn mohli by ekonomovia kazdy rok postovat nejaku suvahu, kolko nas stala tranzice na bezfosil vs kolko nas stala mitigace nasledkov bussiness as usual, tam by sa potom mozno ukazalo, ze tie baterky a panely nas stoja menej nez neustale vyjazdy hasicov a skody na majetku

Kelp’s Carbon Sink Potential Could Be Blocked by Coastal Darkening - Eos
https://eos.org/articles/kelps-carbon-sink-potential-could-be-blocked-by-coastal-darkening

“Coastal darkening, an environmental threat researchers are only beginning to study, is found to dramatically reduce the productivity of kelp.”

“In New Zealand’s Hauraki Gulf, waves crash against cliffs and pull dirt into the ocean, while boats and storms stir up silt from the seafloor. Rivers carry fertilizer from the mainland that causes light-blocking algal blooms, which mingle with pollution from nearby Auckland. Together, they cloud the coastal ocean, depriving organisms living deeper in the water column of their main source of energy—sunlight.”

Coastal Darkening - Kelp Is Endangered
https://youtu.be/APIEvZrSfAc

A window of opportunity for methane to slip by nature's filters -- ScienceDaily
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/07/220728143017.htm

In a new study, just published in Communications Earth and Environment, Stranne and colleagues from Stockholm University and Linnaeus University have combined a new model of the biological behaviour and vertical movements of this microbial filter with existing models of seafloor sediments' physical behaviour. The physical parts of the model include processes such as how cracks form and methane can move up thorough the sediment after methane hydrates melt.

Christian Stranne explains: "Imagine that the amount of methane rising through the sediment suddenly increases, as might happen if methane hydrate begins to melt faster. It can take decades for the filter to adjust itself to consume methane at the new rate. Our new study shows that during the time that the filter is not reestablished, substantial methane can leak past the filter, and into the ocean water."

Despite this "window of opportunity," methane from melting hydrates that reaches the seawater faces further methane-destroying processes. These processes make it nearly impossible for substantial methane from methane hydrate melting to reach the atmosphere. However, methods as demonstrated in this study can be applied to other regions where seafloor-released methane is much shallower and is more likely to reach the atmosphere, such as the Arctic continental shelves, according to Christian Stranne.

"Methane hydrates are a massive storehouse of carbon, so it remains important to understand how they interact with ocean changes, and potentially, the atmosphere, over long and, in the case of our study, rather short timescales. We now know that there is indeed a possible process for melting methane hydrates to temporarily bypass what was previously thought to be a strong filter in the sediment," says Christian Stranne.

The warming rate is, however, of great importance: "Our results suggest that if our oceans warm at a pace significantly lower than 1 °C per 100 years, the filter can keep up with the pace and remain highly efficient. Unfortunately, we see higher warming rates than that in some of our oceans."