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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Explainer: What climate models tell us about future rainfall - Carbon Brief
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-climate-models-tell-us-about-future-rainfall/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TUHO:

    Climate endgame: risk of human extinction ‘dangerously underexplored’ | Climate crisis | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/01/climate-endgame-risk-human-extinction-scientists-global-heating-catastrophe
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: sorry, 0.004 z celku, tj. 0.4 procenta.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    RADIQAL: v celkovejch proporcich private jety delaj asi 0.004 procenta dle rychlyho orientacniho propoctu, ale zase proporcne jde o podobne uzkou skupinu lidi (max stovky tisic lidi) ... takze ten graf tohle v tom extremu akorat ukazuje

    During the past year, private jet travel has emitted over 26 megatons of CO2, 1 megaton of CH4, and 0.22 megatons of N2O. This equates to a total of approximately 184 megatons of CO2-equivalents. This figure is roughly equivalent to the reduction in energy-related emissions in 2019 that the U.S. strived to achieve (EIA, 2020). The level of increase in emissions from pre-pandemic levels to 2021 were also significant. In 2019, private jet travel accounted for only 6.3% of total aviation related emissions in the U.S. This share was relatively stable from 2014 to 2019; however, the pandemic induced boom coupled with the decline in commercial travel has resulted in private jet travel growing its share of emissions from 6.3 to 7.9% of total commercial plus private aviation emissions - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8888033/#s0045

    The global aviation industry produces around 2.1% of all human-induced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8888033/#s0045

    Total greenhouse gas emissions reached 40.8 Gt of CO2 equivalent (CO2eq) in 2021 - https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2021-2
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    Climate change is intensifying the water cycle, bringing more powerful storms and flooding

    Climate change is intensifying the water cycle, bringing more powerful storms and flooding
    https://phys.org/news/2022-08-climate-powerful-storms.html

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

    https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    RADIQAL: offsetovanie vo forme vysadby stromov zas tolko energie nespotrebuje, jako jo bolia ta potom vecer ruky a mozno si nalozis na obed vepro-knedlo-zelo miesto lahkeho letneho salatu z lokalnych surovin, ale co do nejakej skonzumovanej fosilnej energie to je zanedbatelne, takisto ked si bohaty cech miesto letenky na maledivy necha nainstalovat solary na strechu, tak zacal offsetovat, tam uz ta vstupna energia nejaka je, ale uz 5 rokov dozadu sme videli studie, ktore ukazovali ze panel sa energeticky zaplati za 4-5 rokov, pri dnesnych ucinnostiach to bude aj polovica
    RADIQAL
    RADIQAL --- ---
    DZODZO: Milion doláčů je směšný. Miliarda taky. Offsetovanie je dead end, protože samo o sobě spotřebovává velké množství energie.

    @TADEAS: tezko rict, kde je hranice “okázalé spotřeby” a kde se do těch multimiliard počítaj “běžný” businessy. (AB na jednu stranu drtí českó krajinu subvencovanejma monokultura, na druhé straně peče (kolik?) 50% našeho chleba).
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    DZODZO: nedival jsem se, ale ciste z pohledu toho rozlozeni to stoupa masivne az u nejake ultra high net worth osob, nevim ted presne, ale rekneme na koruny miliardari a vejs, podle me to pak dela ta infrastruktura kterou vyuzivaj, tzn private jety, nevim co vic. otazka je, jestli infrastruktura typu private jet musi existovat, jestli lze delat vysokou civilizacni synchronizaci i bez ni, kolik tech letu je lifestylovejch vs pracovnich (dulezitejch pro organizaci civilizace)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    #moreCry

    Bilance četnosti hurikánů přinesla velké překvapení. Z historického hlediska je současnost extrémně klidným obdobím. Od roku 1860, tedy krátce po začátku systematického sledování hurikánů, těchto silných bouří v Atlantiku ubývá a nyní jsou na svém dlouhodobém minimu. V nejrušnějších obdobích bývaly hurikány kolem Baham až osmkrát četnější.

    Opravdu žijeme v době extrémně četných hurikánů? Modré díry vypovídají o opaku – VTM.cz
    https://vtm.zive.cz/clanky/opravdu-zijeme-v-dobe-extremne-cetnych-hurikanu-modre-diry-vypovidaji-o-opaku/sc-870-a-217568/default.aspx
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    TADEAS: hm otazne ci do tych individual emissions zapocitavaju vylozene iba emisie alebo aj nejake offsetovanie, napr. ked bilionar zaplati vyskum carbon-capture technologie, ktora odsaje polovicu jeho emisii alebo posle milion dolarov na sadenie stromov
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    THE_DARKNESS: takový obecnosti, co už víš dávno

    Jak v době globálních klimatických změn zůstat příčetný
    https://denikn.cz/930667/jak-v-dobe-globalnich-klimatickych-zmen-zustat-pricetny/?cst=ff9277b32a7c613204a5254eafb0d6ee4399e370
    THE_DARKNESS
    THE_DARKNESS --- ---
    TADEAS: Generation Dread? V té otevřené části článku není zmíněn název. Nešel by článek odemnkout? resp., jsou v něm nějaká konkrétní doporučení? díky
    L4MA
    L4MA --- ---
    TADEAS: pekne se ta retorika posunula. myslim ze pred trema rokama by "accepting the end of humanity" nebylo vnimano jako konstruktivni element reseni... :)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    As my son choked on bushfire smoke it was clear our most vulnerable are feeling our climate negligence | Nic Seton | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/31/as-my-son-choked-on-bushfire-smoke-it-was-clear-our-most-vulnerable-are-feeling-our-climate-negligence
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Jak v době globálních klimatických změn zůstat příčetný
    https://denikn.cz/930667/jak-v-dobe-globalnich-klimatickych-zmen-zustat-pricetny/?ref=inc
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Heatwaves put classic Alpine hiking routes off-limits | Mountaineering | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/31/heatwaves-put-classic-alpine-hiking-routes-off-limits
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    paliativni proces

    When Time Is Short by Timothy Beal: 9780807090008 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books
    https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/567135/when-time-is-short-by-tim-beal/

    Is accepting the end of humanity the key to climate action? This scholar thinks so. | Grist
    https://grist.org/culture/when-time-is-short-review-timothy-beal-climate-doomer-religion/

    the scientific consensus is that it is still possible to mitigate the worst effects of climate change, assuming we take drastic and immediate action to reform our societies and economies. Wouldn’t convincing yourself that the world is ending lead people to do the opposite — to throw up their hands and go on with their lives as usual? 

    Beal argues the reverse. Reducing emissions and conserving natural resources are all things we should be doing anyway, he told Grist, but it’s hard to break out of the systems (say, capitalism) that got us into this mess in the first place. Accepting that human civilization is finite, he says, will challenge us to change our priorities, from worshiping extraction and growth to uplifting the most marginalized in society. 

    Beal’s thesis draws heavily on the works of scholars like cultural anthropologist Ernest Becker, whose book The Denial of Death made the case that humans survive by refusing to accept their own mortality. The human-centric mythology of many religions, Beal writes, has convinced people that society will persist forever, no matter what damage we do to our habitat. Some Christians, for example, have used a passage from the biblical book of Genesis that instructs humans to “subdue” the Earth and have “dominion” over other living beings as proof that natural resources like oil and trees were made to be mined with abandon, without fear of the consequences. 

    But just as religion has helped get us into this mess, Beal believes it can get us out of it. He points out that other parts of the Bible put animals on equal footing with humans, and assign inherent value to the land itself, rather than just as a tool for humanity to exploit — an interpretation shared by some evangelical Christians who view “creation care” as a sacred duty. Beal also argues that spiritually minded people should embrace “dark green religion,” belief systems that emphasize the ways humans are interconnected with all other living things. 

    Again, this philosophical shift is intended to foster mercy, not hope. Beal envisions humanity adopting a “palliative” approach to the future, one modeled on end-of-life care administered to terminally ill patients. By positing that the end is coming (as a result of our consumerist ideals, no less), this palliative approach neatly shuts down policies that promise prosperity through infinite growth. Even climate solutions touted by Biden and the Democratic Party miss the mark in this case; he argues they frame climate action in the language of job creation and benefits to the economy. 

    ...

    When Time Is Short is the latest addition to a rich body of work on what eco-theologian Michael Dowd termed a “post-doom mentality” or sustainability scholar Jem Bendell calls “deep adaptation” — the idea that if you accept what is inevitable, you can develop a true sense of empathy and a plan for how to respond positively. Pagan environmental activist John Halstead argued in his 2019 book, Another End of the World is Possible, that we need to abandon the obsessive focus on growth and capitalism that has driven us to the brink of collapse. (A 2021 book by the same name, written by a trio of Belgian ecologists and environmental advocates, calls this approach “collapsing well”). 

    ...

    For better or for worse, Beal’s message comes at a critical time. Climate anxiety is rising; as reports of droughts, fires, and floods dominate the news, climate change is no longer an abstract concept for many people, but a very real and present threat. At the same time, politicians and corporations don’t seem seriously interested in either stopping the crisis from worsening or mitigating its effects; the chances of actually limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), as outlined in the Paris Agreement, are now essentially nil. In one study from last year, 56 percent of teens and young adults said they believed that “humanity is doomed.”

    Once we’ve grieved for what we will lose, Beal writes, we can begin the work of doing something with the short time we have left. Given that reality, though, he acknowledges that not everyone may grieve the same way. Beal’s book was written before Don’t Look Up came out, but it references another disaster movie — Lars von Trier’s 2011 film “Melancholia,” about two sisters who struggle to cope in the days before a rogue planet collides with the Earth. While one sister is “paralyzed by depression and anxiety,” the other “gains a new sense of clear-minded peace and composure.” Religion, he argues, can provide a framework for action to alleviate unnecessary suffering as the world collapses around us. 
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    ‘Wake-up call’ for climate-sceptic Czechs as blaze devastates national park | Czech Republic | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/30/wake-up-call-for-climate-sceptic-czechs-as-blaze-devastates-national-park
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