hansen
WolfeNotes.com » Jim Hansen Calls Out Climate Impacts Of Biden’s “Inflation Reduction Act” Dealhttp://www.wolfenotes.com/2022/08/jim-hansen-calls-out-climate-impacts-of-bidens-inflation-reduction-act-deal/By now, I’m sure you’ve all read or heard about the significant climate policy victories embedded in the Biden “Inflation Reduction Act” and how it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions – the models estimate – by up to 44%.
I’m not technically competent to critique the models that generated these estimates of emissions reductions, but I have basic quantitative skills and experience in how laws get implemented. Without going into detail, based on a cursory review, I can say that key assumptions of those models are absurd. To name just 4:
1) the carbon capture and sequestration technology is not feasible;
2) the huge rate of increase in renewable power capacity installation is unrealistic; (read the below caveats):
3) there is no guarantee that renewable power capacity displaces carbon sources of power, especially given technical integration of renewables and gas fired power.
I’ve call it “magical thinking”.
There likely will be growth in GHG emissions given projected economic growth, projected huge increases in energy demand (especially from electrification), continued promotion of leasing and development of fossil reserves, and investment and expansion of fossil and other GHG generating infrastructure in the bill (and the prior infrastructure bill).
It’s even worse than Sanders blasted. He didn’t mention huge subsidies to carbon capture, nuclear power, agriculture, “biofuels”, “sustainable aviation fuel”, logging, mining, pipelines, and electric power lines, among others.
4) I think “forest management” logging policies deeply undermine, if not wipe out, the assumed forest carbon sequestration assumptions. Logging is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.
In addition to inherent limitations of modeling, I’m also highly skeptical of the ability of modelers to understand laws and policy and how they are implemented in the real world.
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When considering priorities suggested by the billions of dollars in the bill, keep in mind that this is a 10 year plan, so divide by 10: e.g. the $370 billion for renewable energy is just $37 billion/year. Compare that to the $800+ billion or so spent on the military, per year