TADEAS: tzn. nelidská činnost

TUHO: můžou za to miliardáři, na tom se snad shodnou všichni...

TUHO: prekvapeni, ta lod je ledoborec ....


Esa mulls Solaris plan to beam solar energy from space - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62982113

The European Space Agency will this week likely approve a three-year study to see if having huge solar farms in space could work and be cost effective.

The eventual aim is to have giant satellites in orbit, each able to generate the same amount of electricity as a power station.

Research ministers will consider the idea at a Paris meeting on Tuesday.

No tak to sem teda zvedavej, kdo na co prijde!

The site, said to be able to store enough electricity to power 300,000 homes for two hours, went online at Pillswood, Cottingham, on Monday.
Its launch was brought forward four months as the UK faces possible energy shortages this winter.
The facility was developed by North Yorkshire renewable power firm Harmony Energy using technology made by Tesla.
Battery energy storage systems hold electricity generated from renewable sources such as wind turbines and solar farms before releasing it at times of high customer demand.

Cottingham: Europe's biggest battery storage system switched on - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-humber-63707463

Perfektni, nejvetsi co2 removal zivocichove.

Plejtváci mají obrovskou smůlu. Mikroplasty z mořské vody filtrují ve velkém - Ekolist.cz
https://ekolist.cz/cz/publicistika/priroda/plejtvaci-maji-obrovskou-smulu.mikroplasty-z-morske-vody-filtruji-ve-velkem

Kromě 40 milionů kusů drobných korýšů pak začne denně přijímat i zhruba 10 milionů mikroplastových částic, jež končí v jeho žaludku,“ říká Shirel Kahane-Rapportpvá, oceánografka Stanfordské univerzity a hlavní autorka studie, uveřejněné v žurnálu Nature Communications.

The Seneca Effect: COP27: The Reasons for a Failure
https://www.senecaeffect.com/2022/11/cop27-reasons-of-failure.html

The COP27, in itself, wouldn't deserve a comment. It is over, and that's it -- been there, done that, and nobody cared. But I think it is a good occasion to reproduce this text by Stuart B. Hill that nicely explains why we make mistakes all the time when trying to manage complex systems. The COP27, indeed, has been a good example of the concept of "pulling the levers in the wrong direction" as Jay Forrester, the creator of System Dynamics, explained to us. So, here it is. h/t Thorsten Daubenfeld.

10 Common ‘Mistakes’ to Avoid, & ‘Needs’ to Meet, When Seeking to Create a Better World – Prof Stuart B Hill – 2008 (updated Dec 2012)

TUHO:

Figure 1. History of computational power at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Computational power is measured in aggregate floating-point operations per second, scaled so that the IBM 701 machine equals 1. Epochs (scalar, vector, parallel, scalable) show the dominant technology of the time. Landmark advances in climate science are shown. The green dashed line shows the logarithmic slope of increase in the early 2000s. Courtesy Youngrak Cho and Whit Anderson, NOAA/GFDL. (Online version in colour.)

TUHO: Relevantni take clanek

The advent of digital computing in the 1950s sparked a revolution in the science of weather and climate. Meteorology, long based on extrapolating patterns in space and time, gave way to computational methods in a decade of advances in numerical weather forecasting. Those same methods also gave rise to computational climate science, studying the behaviour of those same numerical equations over intervals much longer than weather events, and changes in external boundary conditions. Several subsequent decades of exponential growth in computational power have brought us to the present day, where models ever grow in resolution and complexity, capable of mastery of many small-scale phenomena with global repercussions, and ever more intricate feedbacks in the Earth system. The current juncture in computing, seven decades later, heralds an end to what is called Dennard scaling, the physics behind ever smaller computational units and ever faster arithmetic. This is prompting a fundamental change in our approach to the simulation of weather and climate, potentially as revolutionary as that wrought by John von Neumann in the 1950s. One approach could return us to an earlier era of pattern recognition and extrapolation, this time aided by computational power. Another approach could lead us to insights that continue to be expressed in mathematical equations. In either approach, or any synthesis of those, it is clearly no longer the steady march of the last few decades, continuing to add detail to ever more elaborate models. In this prospectus, we attempt to show the outlines of how this may unfold in the coming decades, a new harnessing of physical knowledge, computation and data.

Climbing down Charney’s ladder: machine learning and the post-Dennard era of computational climate science | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering S...
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2020.0085

Neco k budoucnosti kliamtickeho modelovani...

Traditional general circulation models, or GCMs—that is, three-dimensional dynamical models with unresolved terms represented in equations with tunable parameters—have been a mainstay of climate research for several decades, and some of the pioneering studies have recently been recognized by a Nobel prize in Physics. Yet, there is considerable debate around their continuing role in the future. Frequently mentioned as limitations of GCMs are the structural error and uncertainty across models with different representations of unresolved scales and the fact that the models are tuned to reproduce certain aspects of the observed Earth. We consider these shortcomings in the context of a future generation of models that may address these issues through substantially higher resolution and detail, or through the use of machine learning techniques to match them better to observations, theory, and process models. It is our contention that calibration, far from being a weakness of models, is an essential element in the simulation of complex systems, and contributes to our understanding of their inner workings. Models can be calibrated to reveal both fine-scale detail and the global response to external perturbations. New methods enable us to articulate and improve the connections between the different levels of abstract representation of climate processes, and our understanding resides in an entire hierarchy of models where GCMs will continue to play a central role for the foreseeable future.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2202075119

TADEAS: ještě nějaká shrnutí:

Jitka Martínková, účastnice COP 26 a COP 27 za Klimatickou koalici, řekla: “Zřízení fondu pro ztráty a škody je obecně dobrou zprávou, je ale potřeba vhodně nastavit jeho fungování. V oblasti snižování emisí je ale konference debakl a návrat v čase o rok zpět. Pokud byl po Glasgow cíl 1,5 °C na kapačkách, dnes upadl do kómatu. Velmi špatnou zprávou je hlavně to, že ještě v roce 2022 nedokáží světoví lídři ani pojmenovat příčinu klimatické krize, tedy spalování fosilních paliv. Bez zásadního útlumu nejen uhlí, ale i ropy a plynu v následujících letech není dosažení cíle 1,5 °C možné. Neřešené emise navíc dále prohlubují klimatické škody i finanční náklady s nimi spojené. Svět je tedy opět odkázán hlavně na individuální závazky jednotlivých států, zejména zemí ze skupiny G20. Evropa by si měla dát velký pozor hlavně na nové kontrakty pro dodávky fosilního plynu.”

Miriam Macurová, expertka na klimatickou politiku v Greenpeace ČR, řekla: “Ačkoli byla klimatická konference v Egyptě označována za implementační, či za konferenci o Africe, přinesla jen málo bodů, které by bylo možné implementovat a provést. Je také zřejmé, že výsledky konference jsou diktovány hlasy fosilních a korporátních lobbistů, a nikoli potřebami a voláním těch nejzranitelnějších. Klimatická spravedlnost nebude dosažena bez splnění a zvýšení závazků v oblasti financování a adaptace na změnu klimatu, bez postupného ukončení využívání všech fosilních paliv a bez toho, aby bohaté země zaplatily za ztráty a škody způsobené nejzranitelnějším komunitám.”

Jan Mrkvička, ředitel humanitární a rozvojové sekce Člověka v tísni a účastník COP27, řekl: „Vytvoření nového fondu, který by měl formou grantů podporovat komunity, které strádající v důsledku klimatické změny nejvíce, je dobrou zprávou. Teď jde o to, aby se to stalo rychle, a aby mechanizmus nebyl nastaven tak, že se k financím reálně dostanou jen ministerstva, banky a agentury OSN, které nejsou v přímé pomoci lidem nejefektivnější,“ dodává.”

XCHAOS: az na to, ze to s tou syrii neni zas tak jisty, jak by si nekteri asi prali

In the case of Syria, there was a mass exodus of farming families from the worst drought-affected areas in the north of the country (the agricultural bread basket of Syria) to the nearby cities of Damascus, Hama and Aleppo. However, what role this migration played in helping to fuel the uprisings and then the conflict is far from clear.

The initial protests broke out in the city of Daraa, in the south-east of the country, in response to the arrests and mistreatment of a group of youths allegedly caught painting anti-government graffiti. What started as a provincial uprising spread to other parts of the country where deep-seated socio-political dissatisfaction had been simmering for years.

What this sequence of events highlights is that the conflict is a culmination of several interconnected factors that had been steadily developing over decades. While drought, migration and conflict may all be linked by association, such links are not established facts and, in the case of Syria, they are difficult to gauge.

pripadne:
Earlier studies trying to show a link between climate change and conflict have been rebutted by some scientists, and it is not clear how far this new study will go toward settling the issue.

Thomas Bernauer, a professor of political science at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich who has been critical of some earlier studies, said he was skeptical about this one as well. “The evidence for the claim that this drought contributed to the outbreak of civil war in Syria is very speculative and not backed up by robust scientific evidence,”

pripadne:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629816301822
In light of the above we can now return to our main questions: is there clear and reliable evidence that climate change-related drought in Syria was a contributory factor in the onset of the country's civil war?; and, if and where yes, was it as significant a contributory factor as is claimed in the existing academic and expert literature? On each step of the claimed causal chain, our answers are no. We find that there is no clear and reliable evidence that anthropogenic climate change was a factor in northeast Syria's 2006/07–2008/09 drought; we find that, while the 2006/07–2008/09 drought in northeast Syria will have contributed to migration, this migration was not on the scale claimed in the existing literature, and was, in all probability, more caused by economic liberalisation than drought; and we find that there is no clear and reliable evidence that drought-related migration was a contributory factor in civil war onset. In our assessment, there is thus no good evidence to conclude that global climate change-related drought in Syria was a contributory causal factor in the country's civil war.



pak jsi mi jeste nezareagoval na tohle, jestli k tomu mas nejake poradne data, ze treba pred sto, dveste, trista lety bylo vsechno uplne jinak nez dnes .... nebo jestli ted vsechno merime meritkem od posledni doby ledobe (cca1875), tj nejchladnejsi obdobi za poslednich deset tisic let
"Ale díky klimatické změně poroste jejich četnost a pravděpodobnost. Ale to měřítko, v jakém se to celé děje, je tak obrovsky mimo mísu"