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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    +1
    TUHO: Based on current climate policies around the world, various groups estimate that we’re now on track for around 2.5°C (4.5°F) global warming by 2100.

    On the one hand, that’s not yet good enough to meet the target set in the Paris agreement. On the other hand, climate policies and clean technologies deployed over just the past eight years have already erased a full degree Celsius of global warming from the future world in 2100. Governments need to do more in the coming years to bring the Paris goals within reach, but the progress made over just the past eight years has been remarkable, especially in comparison to the prior decades of futility.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    1 odpověď
    Most people don’t realize how much progress we’ve made on climate change » Yale Climate Connections
    https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/11/most-people-dont-realize-how-much-progress-weve-made-on-climate-change/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TUHO: "protecting rents"

    by me zajimalo, kolik procent investic na tohle neni orientovany
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    +1
    TUHO: Jinak je to odsud
    Essential research findings to support decision-making in a critical decade - 10insightsclimate
    https://10insightsclimate.science/
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    2 odpovědi+5
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    1 odpověď+2
    Challenges and opportunities for climate policy integration in oil-producing countries: the case of the UAE and Oman

    In the context of international climate change obligations, Gulf Arab states have introduced policies to integrate climate policies into economic development and planning, seeking to maximize clean development opportunities yet at the same time to minimize the threats to their rentier economies caused by sudden shifts away from fossil fuels. This paper assesses the challenges and opportunities for climate policy integration in the Gulf states of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman, examining the interaction between their climate policy and their political–economic regimes. It adopts a novel analytical framework that integrates insights from climate policy integration and the political–economic theory of rentier states. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and relevant policy documents, it reveals modest progress in integrating climate policy into economic development plans in the UAE but major impediments to climate policy integration in Oman. Both countries face significant shortfalls in climate-related financial and human resource capacities. Climate policy integration efforts have focused on the energy sector with the purpose of protecting rents from oil exports rather than advancing a low-carbon transformation of their economies. This has created structural ambiguity in the climate policy integration advanced in the UAE and Oman.

    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2020.1781036
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    +2
    Great-power politics, order transition, and climate governance: insights from international relations theory

    The complex politics of climate change cannot be properly understood without reference to deeper geopolitical trends in the wider international system. Chief among these is the growing resurgence of ‘great-power politics’ between China and the US, along with failures of socialization and enmeshment into global governance structures in relation to these two powers. Traditional theoretical frameworks have failed to adequately account for these developments. Nonetheless, this current great-power contestation is at the core of an order transition that has prevented the large-scale institutional redesign required to remove deadlocks in existing global governance structures, including climate governance. Examples from the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference provide ample evidence for these claims. The slow progress of the climate change negotiations are due not just to the politics of the issue itself, but to the absence of a new political bargain on material power structures, normative beliefs, and the management of the order amongst the great powers. Without such a grand political bargain, which could be promoted through a forum of major economies whose wide-ranging remit would go beyond single issues, the climate change regime is only ever likely to progress in a piecemeal fashion.

    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2013.818849
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Heroes of Environmental Diplomacy
    Profiles in Courage

    Today more than ever, when the world is beset by environmental, social, healthcare and economic challenges, we need courage in our politics, both nationally and globally. This book tells the stories, some for the first time, of twelve individuals who made heroic contributions to protecting our planet through ground-breaking international treaties.

    Can individuals change the world? Today, when impersonal forces and new technologies seem to be directing our lives and even our entire planet in ways we cannot control, this question feels more relevant than ever before. This book argues that we can all make a difference. It tells inspiring stories of individuals who have had a global impact that is beyond dispute, as well as others who have brought about change that is understated or hard to measure, where the scale of the impact will only become clear in years to come. While some are scientists, others are politicians, diplomats, activists, and even businesspeople. However, they all share the qualities of perseverance, patience, a willingness to innovate or try new approaches, and the endurance to continue over years, even decades, to pursue their goal. Drawing on interviews and the inside stories of those involved, each chapter follows one or more of these heroic individuals, a list which includes Luc Hoffmann, Mostafa Tolba, Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, Raul Oyuela Estrada, Barack Obama and Paula Caballero.

    Presenting an uplifting and gripping narrative, this book is an invaluable resource for students, scholars, activists and professionals who are seeking to understand how consensus is reached in these global meetings and how individuals can have a genuine impact on preserving our planet and reinforcing the positive message that global cooperation can actually work.

    https://www.routledge.com/Heroes-of-Environmental-Diplomacy-Profiles-in-Courage/Dodds-Spence/p/book/9781032065441#:~:text="Heroes%20of%20Environmental%20Diplomacy%20vividly,lasting%20results%20for%20human%20development.
    TUHO
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    +1
    Neco na dobrou noc

    Kemp, L., Xu, C., Depledge, J., Ebi, K. L., Gibbins, G., Kohler, T. A., Rockström, j., Scheffer, M., Schellnhuber, H. J., Steffen, W., & Lenton, T. M. (2022). Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(34), e2108146119.

    Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

    https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +6
    l'ol

    Cop28 president says there is ‘no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels | Cop28 | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/back-into-caves-cop28-president-dismisses-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels

    Al Jaber said: “I accepted to come to this meeting to have a sober and mature conversation. I’m not in any way signing up to any discussion that is alarmist. There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.”

    Bill Hare, the chief executive of Climate Analytics, said: “This is an extraordinary, revealing, worrying and belligerent exchange. ‘Sending us back to caves’ is the oldest of fossil fuel industry tropes: it’s verging on climate denial.”

    “Al Jaber is asking for a 1.5C roadmap – anyone who cares can find that in the International Energy Agency’s latest net zero emissions scenario, which says there cannot be any new fossil fuel development. The science is absolutely clear [and] that absolutely means a phase-out by mid-century, which will enhance the lives of all of humanity.”

    Prof Sir David King, the chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group and a former UK chief scientific adviser, said: “It is incredibly concerning and surprising to hear the Cop28 president defend the use of fossil fuels. It is undeniable that to limit global warming to 1.5C we must all rapidly reduce carbon emissions and phase-out the use of fossil fuels by 2035 at the latest. The alternative is an unmanageable future for humanity.”
    TADEAS
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    +1
    SCHWEPZ: [TADEAS @ Klimaticka zmena / Chances are high that current structures of governance will not succeed in preventing catastrophic climate change]
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    1 odpověď
    TADEAS: toho Hallama si najdu a poslechnu, dík, to jméno tu už zaznělo vícekrát
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    1 odpověď+2
    SCHWEPZ: z hlediska systemu je to natolik rozjete, ze presvedcovani nejakych kohort je nejspis, z toho systemickeho hlediska, malo relevantni, ten socialni system ma malou miru sebekontroly.

    i kdyz si vsichni budeme myslet tu spravnou vec, infrastruktury (sociotechnicke) maji straslivou hybnost. klimaticko-biosfericky system pak taky.

    roger hallam zatim skoncil u otazky, jak se tohle da "prezit" ve smyslu "by dobry clovek". co to vubec znamena.

    hallam rika: nejbohatsi zabijou miliardu lidi. ma to byt sokujici? sokujici je, ne kdyz umre deset procent lidi co znamena, ale kdyz jich umre padesat procent, a navic rychle. proste je to natolik neuchopitelne tema meritkama co mame evolucne k dispozici, ze se nas to opravdu ma problem dotknout. takze civilizacne, ekosystemove je to katastrofa, ale zas tak to bolet nebude, protoze je to proste moc rozproatrene pro nase vnimani.

    snad aspon tou epickou tragedii pobavime ty ufony ,)
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    1 odpověď
    YMLADRIS: to souhlasím, s tou názorností a nějakou "bezprostřední hmatatelností". A s tím "dělat si z nich legraci" jsem to myslel obecně, jako sociální a generační střet, ty jsi slušný člově Mirko, to by mě ani nenapadlo si něco takovýho o tobě myslet

    já nechci přesvědčovat celé generační kohorty :D spíše se snažím jít příkladem třeba (s tím co děláme na statku), šlo mi o ten mediální diskurz - jak o tom mluví mass-media, ,přišlo mi důležité, jak to komunikují a artikulují - aby to více "zasáhlo" i ty "strejce" nebo jak to říct
    YMLADRIS
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    1 odpověď
    SCHWEPZ: jak uz jsem psala niz. nedelam si prdel z lidi, kteri maji tolik starosti se zivotem, ze odmitaji resit "planetu". ale podle me jejich priority muze zvratit jen neco nazorneho az hmatatelneho. zatim nejlip zabralo sucho a kurovec. kdyz budou dalsi problemy, lidi nebudou, jak pises, branit, protoze bude ocividnejsi, ze zitra muze tornado slehnout i do jejich vesnice. Dokud je to abstraktni boj jakychsi elit, je imho mission impossible "s nimi mluvit". Nebo teda porad se to zkousi, ale porad nic. Muzes s lidmi mluvit taky treba o alkoholismu, ze. Ty vazby na tu energii (fosilni, alkoholovou) jsou moc silne. Talk is cheap

    ale jako tim se te nesnazim odradit. treba na neco prijdes
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    1 odpověď
    PALEONTOLOG: no to je bohužel mnohdy pravda :/
    YMLADRIS: ve vztahu k "těmto" sociálním skupinám - a je nutné se bavit i s nimi - přesněji ARTIKULOVAT TO SDĚLENÍ,
    že nejde o nějakej výmysl ("jakési studie" jak říká ten šéfredaktor deníku ekonom v tom odkazu níže) a ZÁCHRANU VESMÍRNÉHO TĚLESA (které z jejich hlediska, tzv. selského rozumu), nejde zachraňovat,
    nebo je to něco natolik robustního a vzdáleného (každodennosti), že si to obtížně představují (smysl i konkrétní kroky)

    - ale že jde o snahu jak zvrátit PRUDKOU (POTENCIÁLNÍ) DEGRADACI prostředí pro život a zabránit kolapsu soušasné podoby civilizace (+ války, hladomory, všechni jezdci apokalypsy).

    Nejde o ta hesla na plakátech, "Za stabilni biosferu", jak píšeš (nikdy nemůže být stailní, je v základu dynamická a disipativní!), ale o to,
    jak tyto snahy ("máte dražší benzín, nesmíš mít tebto kotel, musíš dělat toto, tamto dělat nesmíš") tlumočit a artikolovat tak, aby se do toho v dalších dekádách "zapojili" (nebo tomu nebránili) širší vrstvy i mimo tu pravou čýst gaussovy křivky distribuce IQ (EQ) v populaci...

    ...protože bychom s nimi mluvit měli, jak ohnedá říkala i tahle spisovatelka Hůlové v jiném kontextu (migrace), dělat si z nich prdel nepomůže (my z města, kteří mluvíme X cizími jazyky, jsme privilegovaní, zdědili jsme miliony, lítáme po celé planetě a sledujene nejnovější trendy influencerů vs. vy boomeři kteří ničemu nerozumíte a musíte vymřit) = generační konflikt akcelerovaný prudkým rozvojem ICT a digitálního ekosystému


    rozhovory jen ilustrativně, že jde o širší téma komunikace mezi staří/mladí, město/vesnice, "cestujíci/necestující", "moderní/konzervativní atp., různé ekvivalence dichotomie ..

    Nová česká levice: kluci a holky z fajnových rodin - Echo24.cz
    https://echo24.cz/a/ixp6d/nova-ceska-levice-kluci-a-holky-z-fajnovych-rodin

    Proč nová levice chápe strach jen někdy? - Echo24.cz
    https://echo24.cz/a/inhy5/proc-nova-levice-chape-strach-jen-nekdy
    Ve svém textu Nová levice: kluci a holky z fajnových rodin jsem chtěla upozornit především na pohrdání „obyčejnými lidmi“ bez “správného“ názoru.


    Rozhovor se spisovatelkou Petrou Hůlovou
    https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/kultura-hulova-deklaruje-se-otevrenost-ale-ja-citim-utahovani-sroubu-229333
    "Začalo to myslím velkou debatou spojenou s uprchlickou krizí v roce 2015, kdy jsem to hodně schytala kvůli zastávání se lidí, kteří měli z uprchlíků strach. Dostala jsem hroznou smršť jako xenofobka...
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    1 odpověď
    SCHWEPZ: pravda nenapsal jsem doststecne durazne, ze je jedno jak tomu budes rikat, pro chlapy z hospody to bude dycky ulet nejakych lufftaku. oni az prijdou o lesy a potoky, tak budou cumet a budou nadavat, proc se nic nedelalo, ale do ty doby jim ten zlatej prach do mozkoven nijak nenafoukas...
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: smrt pivu
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    2 odpovědi+1
    SCHWEPZ: co navrhujes? aby to bylo strucne. Muzes jet "Za stabilni biosferu" ale to ti v hospode asi taky pohaní
    SCHWEPZ
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    2 odpovědi+1
    PALEONTOLOG: myslím že se míjíme v pointě, v meritu diskuse, ale chápu co říkáš

    YMLADRIS: jasný, vnímáš to jako symbol, tu planetu. Nemluvíme o degradaci podmínek k životu, snížení komplexity globální civilizace (well-being), zhoršení situace našich dětí - ale prostě "zachraňujeme planetu". Něco jako zachránit Venuši třeba...nebo Uran ,-)

    TADEAS: ok, do toho klubu chodím, tu teorii hypepredace znám, souhlasímm že tyto fenomény ju nutné promýšlet komplexně, v meta-rovině planety jako celku (holisticky), s tím nemám problém. Jen mě tahá za uši sousloví "zachraˇbujeme planetu" a myslím si že to slouží jako "verbální náboje" pro degradaci diskuse

    a přednášku nabídnu ,-)

    Michal Belda: Modely klimatu - lze předpovídat počasí za 100 let? (Živě Benátská 2, PřF UK, Praha)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6w250TrDmo
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam