TADEAS:

Oceánské proudy zřejmě opravdu mohou zastavit a „zmrazit“ Evropu - Seznam Zprávy
https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/zahranicni-oceanske-proudy-zrejme-opravdu-mohou-zastavit-a-zmrazit-evropu-245520

HOWKING: pššt

MARSHUS: novonormálie :)

R Kubala

Dneska trochu analytičtější článek. Přečetl jsem za vás poslední dvě studie od Ember sledující vývoj na trhu s elektřinou a ukazuje se, že uhlí i plyn jsou v Evropě na značném ústupu. Alespoň teda ve výrobě elektřiny. Naopak slunce a vítr trhají rekordy

👉 Článek "Evropa využívá čím dál méně elektřiny z fosilních paliv. Stačit to ale nebude" najdete zde:


Evropa využívá čím dál méně elektřiny z fosilních paliv. Stačit to ale nebude
https://denikreferendum.cz/clanek/36070-evropa-vyuziva-cim-dal-mene-elektriny-z-fosilnich-paliv-stacit-to-ale-nebude

Data pro Evropu ukazují, že:
👉 S koncem uhlí jsme přesně v polovině

👉 Uhlí ve výrobě elektřiny pokleslo meziročně o 26 %, plyn o 15 %

👉 Emise ze sektoru energetiky klesly o 19 %, což je víc než za covidu

👉Vítr poprvé překonal plyn. Z větru jsme v Evropě vyrobili 19 % elektřiny, z plynu 18 %

👉 Klíčový je výrazný nárůst solární a větrné energie. Druhým faktorem bylo snížení spotřeby energie zapříčiněné energetickou krizí

👉 Německo snížilo emise o rekordních 21 %

👉 Dokonce uhelný gigant Polsko se odklání od uhlí. Pomalu, ale jistě

👉 Nic z toho stačit nebude ke zvládnutí klimatické krizi

Carbon offsets aren't a good climate change solution, my research shows.
https://slate.com/technology/2024/02/carbon-offsets-california-fire-neutral-shipping-climate-change.html

the promise of using trees to counteract carbon emissions is, unfortunately, undermined by those same emissions. The warmer world we’ve created by burning fossil fuels is one where wildfires are more frequent and intense, drought is more prevalent, and forest disease more virulent. Climate change has supercharged these natural, tree-killing processes, leading to an unfortunate irony: The very forests we often depend on as offsets are under threat and increasingly endangered by climate change itself.

Nowhere is this more apparent than California’s offset program, a multibillion-dollar market that allows the state’s major polluters to offset some of their emissions instead of reducing the amount of carbon they put into the air in the first place. More than 80 percent of the program’s offsets derive from protecting trees from being cut down—but there’s more than just chain saws threatening those trees.

...

Called the buffer pool, it’s a reserve of credits set aside to compensate for losses due to wildfires or other unforeseen events. Each time a forest enrolls in the program, roughly 15 to 20 percent of the credits it generates go into the pool. Anytime there is a fire, it’s the responsibility of this collectively funded insurance pool to step in and cover any carbon losses. Basically: The offsets come with some backup offsets.

Although this may seem to be a straightforward and savvy idea on paper, I work for a nonprofit called CarbonPlan, which has spent nearly four years studying how the buffer pool actually plays out in the real world. Our research has shown the pool to be far too shallow. Large fires have burned through at least six forests participating in California’s offset program, including the massive Bootleg Fire in 2021, which blazed through a large offset project in southern Oregon and triggered air quality alerts as far away as New York City. In three of those cases, the damage from wildfire has been so severe that the offset project was canceled altogether.

TADEAS:

on course

2024 Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189

"kind of scary"

Atlantic Ocean circulation nearing ‘devastating’ tipping point, study finds | Oceans | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/09/atlantic-ocean-circulation-nearing-devastating-tipping-point-study-finds

new paper, published in Science Advances, has broken new ground by looking for warning signs in the salinity levels at the southern extent of the Atlantic Ocean between Cape Town and Buenos Aires. Simulating changes over a period of 2,000 years on computer models of the global climate, it found a slow decline can lead to a sudden collapse over less than 100 years, with calamitous consequences.

The paper said the results provided a “clear answer” about whether such an abrupt shift was possible: “This is bad news for the climate system and humanity as up till now one could think that Amoc tipping was only a theoretical concept and tipping would disappear as soon as the full climate system, with all its additional feedbacks, was considered.”

It also mapped some of the consequences of Amoc collapse. Sea levels in the Atlantic would rise by a metre in some regions, inundating many coastal cities. The wet and dry seasons in the Amazon would flip, potentially pushing the already weakened rainforest past its own tipping point. Temperatures around the world would fluctuate far more erratically. The southern hemisphere would become warmer. Europe would cool dramatically and have less rainfall. While this might sound appealing compared with the current heating trend, the changes would hit 10 times faster than now, making adaptation almost impossible.

...

“What surprised us was the rate at which tipping occurs,” said the paper’s lead author, René van Westen, of Utrecht University. “It will be devastating.”

He said there was not yet enough data to say whether this would occur in the next year or in the coming century, but when it happens, the changes are irreversible on human timescales.

In the meantime, the direction of travel is undoubtedly in an alarming direction.

“We are moving towards it. That is kind of scary,” van Westen said

Česká republika je průmyslovým státem s bohatou tradicí sahající až do časů Rakouska-Uherska. Zdejší průmysl se mohl rozvíjet především díky dostatku energie původem z místních uhelných nalezišť. Za posledních 150 let tak u nás byly vytěženy miliardy tun tohoto paliva, které velkou měrou přispělo k naší prosperitě.

Odvrácenou stranou této mince je skutečnost, že spalováním uhlí měníme složení atmosféry, což způsobuje změnu klimatu, která v důsledku ohrožuje přežití mnoha rostlinných i živočišných druhů, včetně člověka. Do budoucna je tedy nezbytné obejít se bez tohoto důležitého zdroje. Co to bude znamenat pro naši ekonomiku, jejíž energetická náročnost je jedna z nejvyšších v rámci EU?

Naše budoucí konkurenceschopnost závisí na energetických úsporách | Obnovitelně
https://www.obnovitelne.cz/clanek/2982/nase-budouci-konkurenceschopnost-zavisi-na-energetickych-usporach

L4MA: fake, pardon. neni to pravda, ale mohla by byt. :)

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