TADEAS: to je dobrý peklo, když si uvědomíš, jaká masa vody to je...

TADEAS: bambilionty startup se stejnym cilem .. mozna to tentokrat vyjde .. mozna az za 5 let ;)

TADEAS: realclimate se k tomu taky rozepsali:

RealClimate: New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/02/new-study-suggests-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-amoc-is-on-tipping-course/

The new study by van Westen et al. is a major advance in AMOC stability science, coming from what I consider the world’s leading research hub for AMOC stability studies, in Utrecht/Holland.
...
The paper results from a major computational effort, based on running a state-of-the-art climate model (the CESM model with horizontal resolution 1° for the ocean/sea ice and 2° for the atmosphere/land component) for 4,400 model years. This took 6 months to run on 1,024 cores at the Dutch national supercomputing facility, the largest system in the Netherlands in terms of high-performance computing.
...
Now this tipping point has been demonstrated for the first time in a state-of-the-art global coupled climate model, crushing the hope that with more model detail and resolution some feedback might prevent an AMOC collapse.
...
“their estimate of the tipping point (2025 to 2095, 95% confidence level) could be accurate.”
...
Most models even have the wrong sign of this important diagnostic, which determines whether the feedback on Atlantic salinity is stabilising or destabilising, and this model bias is a key reason why in my view the IPCC has so far underestimated the risk of an AMOC collapse by relying on these biased climate models.
...
They show how particularly northern Europe from Britain to Scandinavia would suffer devastating impacts, such as a cooling of winter temperatures by between 10 °C and 30 °C occurring within a century, leading to a completely different climate within a decade or two, in line with paleoclimatic evidence about abrupt ocean circulation changes.
...
Given the impacts, the risk of an AMOC collapse is something to be avoided at all cost. As I’ve said before: the issue is not whether we’re sure this is going to happen. The issue is that we need to rule this out at 99.9 % probability. Once we have a definite warning signal it will be too late to do anything about it, given the inertia in the system.
...
...
In the reactions to the paper, I see some misunderstand this as an unrealistic model scenario for the future. It is not. This type of experiment is not a future projection at all, but rather done to trace the equilibrium stability curve (that’s the quasi-equlibrium approach mentioned above). In order to trace the equlibrium response, the freshwater input must be ramped up extremely slowly, which is why this experiment uses so much computer time. After the model’s tipping point was found in this way, it was used to identify precursors that could warn us before reaching the tipping point, so-called “early warning signals”. Then, the scientists turned to reanalysis data (observations-based products, shown in Fig. 6 of the paper) to check for an early warning signal. The headline conclusion that the AMOC is „on tipping course“ is based on these data.

In other words: it’s observational data from the South Atlantic which suggest the AMOC is on tipping course. Not the model simulation, which is just there to get a better understanding of which early warning signals work, and why.

TADEAS:

Oceánské proudy zřejmě opravdu mohou zastavit a „zmrazit“ Evropu - Seznam Zprávy
https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/zahranicni-oceanske-proudy-zrejme-opravdu-mohou-zastavit-a-zmrazit-evropu-245520

HOWKING: pššt

MARSHUS: novonormálie :)

R Kubala

Dneska trochu analytičtější článek. Přečetl jsem za vás poslední dvě studie od Ember sledující vývoj na trhu s elektřinou a ukazuje se, že uhlí i plyn jsou v Evropě na značném ústupu. Alespoň teda ve výrobě elektřiny. Naopak slunce a vítr trhají rekordy

👉 Článek "Evropa využívá čím dál méně elektřiny z fosilních paliv. Stačit to ale nebude" najdete zde:


Evropa využívá čím dál méně elektřiny z fosilních paliv. Stačit to ale nebude
https://denikreferendum.cz/clanek/36070-evropa-vyuziva-cim-dal-mene-elektriny-z-fosilnich-paliv-stacit-to-ale-nebude

Data pro Evropu ukazují, že:
👉 S koncem uhlí jsme přesně v polovině

👉 Uhlí ve výrobě elektřiny pokleslo meziročně o 26 %, plyn o 15 %

👉 Emise ze sektoru energetiky klesly o 19 %, což je víc než za covidu

👉Vítr poprvé překonal plyn. Z větru jsme v Evropě vyrobili 19 % elektřiny, z plynu 18 %

👉 Klíčový je výrazný nárůst solární a větrné energie. Druhým faktorem bylo snížení spotřeby energie zapříčiněné energetickou krizí

👉 Německo snížilo emise o rekordních 21 %

👉 Dokonce uhelný gigant Polsko se odklání od uhlí. Pomalu, ale jistě

👉 Nic z toho stačit nebude ke zvládnutí klimatické krizi

Carbon offsets aren't a good climate change solution, my research shows.
https://slate.com/technology/2024/02/carbon-offsets-california-fire-neutral-shipping-climate-change.html

the promise of using trees to counteract carbon emissions is, unfortunately, undermined by those same emissions. The warmer world we’ve created by burning fossil fuels is one where wildfires are more frequent and intense, drought is more prevalent, and forest disease more virulent. Climate change has supercharged these natural, tree-killing processes, leading to an unfortunate irony: The very forests we often depend on as offsets are under threat and increasingly endangered by climate change itself.

Nowhere is this more apparent than California’s offset program, a multibillion-dollar market that allows the state’s major polluters to offset some of their emissions instead of reducing the amount of carbon they put into the air in the first place. More than 80 percent of the program’s offsets derive from protecting trees from being cut down—but there’s more than just chain saws threatening those trees.

...

Called the buffer pool, it’s a reserve of credits set aside to compensate for losses due to wildfires or other unforeseen events. Each time a forest enrolls in the program, roughly 15 to 20 percent of the credits it generates go into the pool. Anytime there is a fire, it’s the responsibility of this collectively funded insurance pool to step in and cover any carbon losses. Basically: The offsets come with some backup offsets.

Although this may seem to be a straightforward and savvy idea on paper, I work for a nonprofit called CarbonPlan, which has spent nearly four years studying how the buffer pool actually plays out in the real world. Our research has shown the pool to be far too shallow. Large fires have burned through at least six forests participating in California’s offset program, including the massive Bootleg Fire in 2021, which blazed through a large offset project in southern Oregon and triggered air quality alerts as far away as New York City. In three of those cases, the damage from wildfire has been so severe that the offset project was canceled altogether.

TADEAS:

on course

2024 Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189

"kind of scary"

Atlantic Ocean circulation nearing ‘devastating’ tipping point, study finds | Oceans | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/09/atlantic-ocean-circulation-nearing-devastating-tipping-point-study-finds

new paper, published in Science Advances, has broken new ground by looking for warning signs in the salinity levels at the southern extent of the Atlantic Ocean between Cape Town and Buenos Aires. Simulating changes over a period of 2,000 years on computer models of the global climate, it found a slow decline can lead to a sudden collapse over less than 100 years, with calamitous consequences.

The paper said the results provided a “clear answer” about whether such an abrupt shift was possible: “This is bad news for the climate system and humanity as up till now one could think that Amoc tipping was only a theoretical concept and tipping would disappear as soon as the full climate system, with all its additional feedbacks, was considered.”

It also mapped some of the consequences of Amoc collapse. Sea levels in the Atlantic would rise by a metre in some regions, inundating many coastal cities. The wet and dry seasons in the Amazon would flip, potentially pushing the already weakened rainforest past its own tipping point. Temperatures around the world would fluctuate far more erratically. The southern hemisphere would become warmer. Europe would cool dramatically and have less rainfall. While this might sound appealing compared with the current heating trend, the changes would hit 10 times faster than now, making adaptation almost impossible.

...

“What surprised us was the rate at which tipping occurs,” said the paper’s lead author, René van Westen, of Utrecht University. “It will be devastating.”

He said there was not yet enough data to say whether this would occur in the next year or in the coming century, but when it happens, the changes are irreversible on human timescales.

In the meantime, the direction of travel is undoubtedly in an alarming direction.

“We are moving towards it. That is kind of scary,” van Westen said