ZAHRADKAR: lidem se to musí vysvětlovat na těch kuřatech. Já jsem snědl celé kuře ty máš hlad, v průměru jsme ale každý snědli půl kuřete.

Víme že v průměru bude extrémů přibývat, ale někde bude víceméně průměr, někde může být i "normálněji" a někde bude extrémně jinak.

nedá se říct, do které kategorie spadne střední evropa.
momentálně je tepleji, ale není sucho, takže lidi mají pocit že jde vlastně o pozitivní záležitost. Protože zrovna máme štěstí. Většina zpráv ovšem vyznívá jako: Určitě bude sucho a vedro......jenže ono být nemusí, můžou to schytat jinde. Pak se ovšem lidi z těch částí co postižené přestanou reagovat na nebezpečí protože když byli varováni minule tak to nevyšlo.

Jako když v roce 2019 Miroslav Trnka varoval že nás čekají dva možné scénáře, buď pokračující extrémní sucho nebo extrémní povodně. cituji
:Trnka, podle něhož by česká krajina potřebovala spoustu dnů jemného vytrvalého deště s malou intenzitou. „Aby krajina vodu vstřebávala........... Ale to je v našem klimatickém pásmu nemyslitelné.“ Spíš naopak, jestli Česku něco hrozí, tak to jsou spíš extrémní srážky.

jenže ono se stalo přesně to, byla spousta dní jemného deště a situace se srovnala.

Pak nemají být lidi odmítavý k předpovědím.

The question resurfaced in the 1970s, when scientists reached consensus that fossil-fuel emissions were putting Earth at risk of dangerous warming. At that time, historians answered that any climatic influence would be undetectable. They gathered at conferences, published three collections of papers in 1980 alone, and studiously avoided any tinge of determinism. Their most senior member, French historian Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie, was famous for his studies of everyday life among early modern peasants. In the 1960s, Ladurie showed scientists how to use historical documents such as harvest records to track climatic variations. Yet Ladurie saw no point in trying to follow the causal chain any further; it seemed to him improbable if not impossible that historians would ever detect long-term societal consequences of climatic variations. Most other historians followed Ladurie’s lead, assuming that the modernization of agriculture and the globalization of trade had insulated humans from the vagaries of climate.

Then, about 20 years ago, several historians noticed that the spatial resolution of climate models had increased approximately fourfold, which meant that it was now possible to detect correlations between specific historical events and dips and rises in regional temperatures and precipitation. Carefully comparing historical documents to model output, a couple of them ventured to make bold claims, with the boldest one coming in a weighty book by military historian Geoffrey Parker. He argued that unusually cold weather and poor harvests exacerbated—but did “not cause,” he was careful to add—the spate of wars and revolutions in Europe and other parts of the world in the 17th century. States were able to cope, he argued, according to their ability to manage their populations and centralize governance. Parker’s message was clear: climate change could lead to the total breakdown of social order.

What’s Next for Histories of Climate Change | Los Angeles Review of Books
https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/whats-next-for-histories-of-climate-change/

2024 Ruminating on soil carbon: Applying current understanding to inform grazing management
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.17223

Among options for atmospheric CO2 removal, sequestering soil organic carbon (SOC) via improved grazing management is a rare opportunity because it is scalable across millions of globally grazed acres, low cost, and has high technical potential. Decades of scientific research on grazing and SOC has failed to form a cohesive understanding of how grazing management affects SOC stocks and their distribution between particulate (POM) and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM)—characterized by different formation and stabilization pathways—across different climatic contexts. As we increasingly look to grazing management for SOC sequestration on grazinglands to bolster our climate change mitigation efforts, we need a clear and collective understanding of grazing management's impact on pathways of SOC change to inform on-the-ground management decisions. We set out to review the effects of grazing management on SOC through a unified plant ecophysiology and soil biogeochemistry conceptual framework, where elements such as productivity, input quality, soil mineral capacity, and climate variables such as aridity co-govern SOC accumulation and distribution into POM and MAOM. To maximize applicability to grazingland managers, we discuss how common management levers that drive overall grazing pattern, including timing, intensity, duration, and frequency can be used to optimize mechanistic pathways of SOC sequestration. We discuss important research needs and measurement challenges, and highlight how our conceptual framework can inform more robust research with greater applicability for maximizing the use of grazing management to sequester SOC.