• úvod
  • témata
  • události
  • tržiště
  • diskuze
  • nástěnka
  • přihlásit
    registrace
    ztracené heslo?
    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    dobře dík. to je ta lepší varianta (dá se to předvídat, jen lidi na to prozatím kašlou). bála jsem se že to jsou nějaké novoty typu že během velmi krátké doby se zformuje cosi kdesi z ničeho a pak to spadne všechno najednou
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    YMLADRIS: Mimochodem koalice konzervativcu s far-right klima-popiraci z Vox ropzustili emergency unit, kterou zalozila pro tyhle pripady minula levicova vlada. Pry to bylo plytvani prostredky...

    The regional president of Valencia, the conservative Carlos Mazón, has been forced to defend his decision to eliminate the Valencia Emergency Unit (UVE) on the grounds that it was inefficient.
    The UVE was created by the previous, left-wing government, in order to respond to weather-related emergencies such as flooding or wildfires. On taking office last year, Mr Mazón immediately got rid of it, with his People’s Party (PP) describing the agency as “a shady outfit”.

    Timing of Spain flood alert under scrutiny as blame game rages
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyx75ppr79o
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    TUHO: takže spousta těch Španělů vlastně přišla o život ve snaze zachránit svoje auta... (facepalm)
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    DESMOND: abiogeneze kyslíku díky elektrickému potenciálu minerálů na mořském dně, jasně, ale ono je to dost marginální. žije díky tomu u dna život, ale na atmosféru to asi velký dopad nemá.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: A quick analysis following the floods in Spain found that the climate emergency made the extreme rainfall about 12% more intense and twice as likely. Despite this, in Paiporta, where at least 62 people have died, the mayor said floods were not common and “people are not afraid”. But the changing climate is making once-rare events more common.

    Record-breaking events such as these complicate preparedness – how do you communicate the extreme danger of something someone has never experienced before?

    We saw this play out recently after Hurricane Helene made landfall. More than 200 people died in floods in the inland southern Appalachians region of the US. Despite warnings of “catastrophic and life-threatening” flooding ahead of the disaster, people were still caught out when disaster struck, and many could not appreciate how extreme the downpours were going to be.

    However, in Spain, people were only warned as it was happening. Warnings were not sent until many people were already trapped in flooded houses or in underground car parks, trying to move their cars to higher ground.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    YMLADRIS: Clanek od zakladatelky World Weather Attribution (asi jste v posledni dobe slyseli casto o rychlych atribucnich studiich, kdy v podstate tahle grupa v pripade extremnich udalosti spusti klimatickej model a porovna vysledky atmosfery s / bez klima zmeny a potom zjisti, jak tedy k nim pridala / ubrala)

    “As we’ve seen in Spain, forecasting is not enough. The warnings, when they finally came, did not include vital information on where to evacuate to and how.”

    Why did so many die in Spain? Because Europe still hasn’t accepted the realities of extreme weather | Friederike Otto | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/04/spain-deaths-europe-realities-extreme-weather-flooding
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    PER2:
    YMLADRIS: něco vzdáleně podobného se stalo vloni nebo předloni nebo kdy v Německu, i tam se diskutovalo o přiměřenosti a včasnosti výstrahy, ale počet obětí na životě byl přeci jen menší. Tohle bylo rozsahem zřejmě bezprecedentní a nikdo zřejmě nepředpokládal, že vůbec může spadnout tolik vody najednou. To souvisí s tím, že do teplejšího vzduchu se prostě víc té vody vejde a vrstva teplejšího vzduchu je teď větší i v mírném pásmu. Dřív jsme podobné scény znali třeba z tropů, ale tam jsou na to lidé zvyklí jako na poměrně stálý jev, který očekávají a my jsme zase zvyklí na záběry tropických lijáků ve zprávách jako na folklór.

    Největší kontroverze se týká toho, že neaktivovali nový výstražný systém, který tam samozřejmě mají. Kazilo by to kšeft, zavřely by se restaurace, a tak. Tak prostě někdo risknul, že to bude jenom normální silný déšť a že holt lidi trochu zmoknou. Nechtěl spojit svoje jméno s "falešným poplachem" a tak nevyhlásil poplach, který by falešný nebyl a určitě by pár životů zachránil (zřejmě to chtělo nechat auta tam kde jsou - což je další scénář, které se pravicový politik bojí, protože jeho voliči jsou lidé v autech, ne lidi mimo auta).
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Climate Extremes (Full Documentary)
    https://youtu.be/U8pLrRkqbb0?si=1jQQTsB4eEjAzcad
    DESMOND
    DESMOND --- ---
    SHEFIK: Díky, díky! :) O oceánech toto vím, ale u grafů oteplení za poslední dva roky Johan říkal, že nevědí proč se povrchová teplota ohřála tak skokově.
    + Zároveň se říkalo, že při vyšší teplotě hrozí okyselení, které zabije právě řasy pohlcující CO2, což bude velký špatný.
    + Jsem zachytil jinou novější zprávu, že ale našli něco, co produkuje kyslík (pohlcuje CO2?) asi nezávisle na světle ve větších hloubkách. Ale nevím, jaký je poslední konsenzus vývoje všech těchto efektů, nebo jestli se prostě ještě neví, co oceán udělá.
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    YMLADRIS: dlouhodoba obdobi klidu a miru te proste ukolebaji....
    Local authorities have been criticised for failing to issue timely warnings about the potential dangers of the storm.

    Valencia’s government has admitted it only sent out text messages warning residents of the catastrophe eight hours after floods were first reported and 10 hours after AEMET issued a warning about “extreme danger” in the region.

    This brief message sent just after 8pm on Tuesday came too late for many who were already trapped in their homes, in shops or in their cars on the streets as the deadly flooding hit.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    zkoumali jste, jestli tam nemaji CHMU (valencie), nebo ta potopa ma takovy charakter, ze ani CHMU nepomuze, nebo cim to je, ze je tolik obeti?
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Fears of ‘mass grave’ in Valencia as storms batter Majorca & 5,000 more troops deployed
    https://youtu.be/tL9Q_cZxSMY?t=258&si=jGF01ohrKSae3uhG


    Wars, famines, droughts, floods
    Hurricanes, heat waves, murders, thugs
    Chaos, refugees, stress, disease
    Extinction, disaster, I-P-C-C

    TADEAS
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    Disaster Nationalism: The Downfall of Liberal Civilization | Verso Books
    https://www.versobooks.com/products/3147-disaster-nationalism
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Climate crisis leaves European farmers vulnerable to far right, say campaigners | Europe | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/04/climate-crisis-europe-farmers-vulnerable-far-right

    In recent years, farmers in western Europe have fought with increasing ferocity against policies to protect the planet that they say cost them too much. From the Netherlands, where the backlash has been strongest, to Belgium, France, Spain, Ireland, Germany and the UK, protests have led to convoys of tractors clogging roads and ports, farmer-led occupations of capital cities and even cows being herded into the offices of government ministers.

    These movements have been fuelled by the genuine grievances of farmers, who say that the burden of paying more for their pollution is a step too far, after an energy crisis and pandemic left many struggling to make ends meet. They say they feel overburdened by rules and undervalued by city dwellers, who eat the food they grow without any interest in where it came from.

    ...

    Richard Seymour, whose latest book, Disaster Nationalism, examines how the far-right is capitalising on economic shocks and climate chaos, small farmers reeling from the blows of globalisation, a changing climate, and high energy prices is part of a wider trend.

    Seymour said: “For farmers there’s all of this resentment requiring a target. But many of the things that are causing the harm – globalisation, capitalism, climate change – are abstract; you can’t take climate change to court, you can’t shoot globalisation … But conspiracy theories and far-right narratives allow you to identify some specific individuals or groups – cultural Marxists, globalists, Muslims – who are doing you down, that is the appeal.”

    “Downwardly mobile” farmers – those that have seen their living standards and social standing decline during their lifetimes – are particularly susceptible, according to Seymour. “The toxic feeling of failure, the feeling of being buffeted by these global forces, the feeling you have been abandoned, betrayed, when you traditionally had some sort of status, that is a toxic mix and that is where the far right comes in.”
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    Iceland could get solar power from space in 2030 | Space
    https://www.space.com/iceland-space-based-solar-power
    Island průkopníkem. Za šest let chce z vesmíru posílat solární energii na Zemi - iDNES.cz
    https://www.idnes.cz/technet/vesmir/island-solarni-energie-obnovitelne-zdroje-vesmir.A241104_192718_zahranicni_vajo
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    PER2: tak snad ji stihnou postavit.

    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    lets build a wall!

    'Doomsday' Antarctic glacier melting faster than expected, fueling calls for geoengineering
    https://phys.org/news/2024-11-doomsday-antarctic-glacier-faster-fueling.html

    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    SHEFIK: k hranici 2*C dle carbonbrief a IPCC:

    - The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.

    - In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052.

    ...

    Podle AI standford modelu pak kolem 2060 s 80% pravdepodobnosti

    AI predicts global warming will exceed 1.5 degrees in 2030s | Stanford Report
    https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/01/ai-predicts-global-warming-will-exceed-1-5-degrees-2030s
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    DESMOND: tak co se tyka hranice 1,5*C, vypada to podle projekci, ze bude prekrocena (global mean temperature) uz v 2025:

    Dashboard & forecast
    Current levels of warming | Climate Dashboard
    https://climate.metoffice.cloud/current_warming.html

    Coz neznamena, ze to bude trvale (i kdyz imho neni duvod, proc by mela klesat, La nina evidentne uz moc ochlazeni neprinasi a emise rostou)

    Podle WMO je likelihood 80%, ze se tak stane v pristich 5ti letech (opet temporarily)

    Global temperature is likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial level temporarily in next 5 years
    https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/global-temperature-likely-exceed-15degc-above-pre-industrial-level-temporarily-next-5-years
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    DESMOND: vetsina energie se uklada do oceanu, je to nejen carbon sink, ale i heat sink... diky stabilizaci tepla skrze oceany se na planete vubec mohl vytvorit zivot.
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam