nekdo random na redditu se snazi rozebrat dynamiku mezi ruznymi klimatology
SS: We Study Climate Change. We Can’t Explain What We’re Seeing. - Gavin Schmidt (Head of GISS) and Zeke Hausfather (Berkeley Earth)
This "opinion" piece in today's NYT is basically a position statement from the Moderate faction in Climate Science. Schmidt and Hausfather are the "serious science" voices in that faction. As opposed to people like Michael Mann who pushes "hopium" and has stated that he views "doomism" as a "mental illness".
It's significant both for what it says and for what it doesn't say.
What it says that's important:
"The earth has been exceptionally warm of late, with every month from June 2023 until this past September breaking records."
"It has been considerably hotter even than climate scientists expected."
"Average temperatures during the past 12 months have also been above the goal set by the Paris climate agreement: to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels."
-translation: We are now above +1.5°C, WAY sooner than the Moderates thought it was going to happen.
"the unusual jump in global temperatures starting in mid-2023 appears to be higher than our models predicted (even as they generally remain within the expected range)."
-translation: The temperatures are GENERALLY within "the expected range" of the Moderate General Climate Models BUT at the HIGH END of the models. Meaning "Climate Sensitivity" to 2XCO2 is probably higher than they thought.
"While there have been many partial hypotheses — new low-sulfur fuel standards for marine shipping, a volcanic eruption in 2022, lower Chinese aerosol emissions and El Niño perhaps behaving differently than in the recent past."
-translation: 4 years ago we COMPLETELY ignored James Hansen when he predicted up to +0.6°C of warming from the change in marine diesel. Zeke estimated only +0.06°C of warming would result from that change. We would rather DIE than admit Hansen was right, but NOTHING ELSE explains what's happened.
"we remain far from a consensus explanation even more than a year after we first noticed the anomalies. And that makes us uneasy."
-translation: We don't know what's going on and we're scared.
"Why is it taking so long for climate scientists to grapple with these questions?"
-translation: The theories and models of the Moderates aren't working is why BUT they cannot admit that the Alarmists might have been right all along. So now, they are spending a LOT of time trying out EVERY OTHER possible explanation.
"It turns out that we do not have systems in place to explore the significance of shorter-term phenomena in the climate in anything approaching real time. But we need them badly. It’s now time for government science agencies to provide more timely updates in response to the rapid changes in the climate."
-translation: We need MORE MONEY to build out a better climate monitoring system.
Which is what the rest of the piece is a plea for.
The graphs are interesting and give a good idea of just how much 2023 and 2024 have been OFF THE CHARTS bad.
clanek zde
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-heat-planet.html?unlocked_article_code=1.aU4.yUZL.WUVZeJCH6AiT&smid=re-share