Čísla a názory :)

Kdo je tu štamgast asi si vzpomenete že v době kdy byly predikce 4 stupně vzestupu globální teploty, tak v Postupimi si udělali neofiko konferenci na téma carrying capacity a vyšlo jim že planeta utáhne miliardu lidi. Ale nebyl to peer reviewed výsledek, tak se to považovalo od Shellnhubers za doomisticky výkřik a pod.

Nicméně teď tu vidím loňský článek, kde se k tomu názoru hlásí i Kevin Anderson a Johan rockstrom, ten teda přitvrdil

projects that in a 4˚C warmer world, “it’s difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that.”

Tak asi nějaký vývoj v modelování :)

Naopak protistrana - nordaus dostal v 2018 Nobelovku za svou práci na téma výhody climate change pro GDP. Optimální vidí 3.5 stupně

Mezitím jsou populární tipping pointy. Další ekonomové k tomu:

Dietz and friends came to the astounding conclusion that if all eight were tipped, the economic cost by 2100 would amount to an additional 1.4% of lost GDP on top of the roughly 8 to 12% that Nordhaus projected.

Už ten r/collapse asi číst nebudu

https://www.worldenergydata.org/when-idiot-savants-do-climate-economics/

snowball europe ,)

‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation | Oceans | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation

Could Insect Declines Lead To Social Collapse? | Aaron Bastani meets Dave Goulson
https://youtu.be/LR32Ns7zc6M?si=sLppufnn_mipQnxT


Insects are the creatures that act as a lubricant in the machine of life. From pollinating vital crops to managing organic waste on a continental scale, their critical role cannot be understated. The problem is that they are quite quickly disappearing.

Dave Goulson is a world-renowned entomologist and ecologist whose books have communicated the majesty of insects and arthropods whilst providing grave warning to us about their demise.

He sat down with Aaron to talk about dung beetles, wolves in Sussex and the critical lack of scientific expertise in government

Novy data k AMOC collapse, vcetne pre-printu. Z cyklu #doomed

"We conclude that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation cannot be considered a low-probability event anymore." - Prof. Sybren Drijfhout et al.

x.com
https://x.com/ThierryAaron/status/1849842823954346187?t=XNLPa8bTOQZtPjDlQiJ3Sg&s=19

A cerstvy summary z guardianu

‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation | Oceans | The Guardian
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation

Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year. Is nature’s carbon sink failing?
The sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into climate models – and could rapidly accelerate global heating

It begins each day at nightfall. As the light disappears, billions of zooplankton, crustaceans and other marine organisms rise to the ocean surface to feed on microscopic algae, returning to the depths at sunrise. The waste from this frenzy – Earth’s largest migration of creatures – sinks to the ocean floor, removing millions of tonnes of carbon from the atmosphere each year.

This activity is one of thousands of natural processes that regulate the Earth’s climate. Together, the planet’s oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks absorb about half of all human emissions.

But as the Earth heats up, scientists are increasingly concerned that those crucial processes are breaking down.

Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year. Is nature’s carbon sink failing? | Oceans | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/14/nature-carbon-sink-collapse-global-heating-models-emissions-targets-evidence-aoe?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

XCHAOS: collapse now and avoid the rush, jak rikal archdruid ,)

ale kapitani prumyslu veli accelerate now and don't think about collapse at all

TADEAS: Think globaly, collapse localy?

Just Collapse
https://justcollapse.org/

Just Collapse recognises the impossibility of a globally planned collapse, or degrowth, and instead advocates for localised social and ecological justice.

MARSHUS: "Projections say that the Doomsday Glacier and the Antarctic Ice Sheet’s collapse could occur within the next 200 years. Sure, not your problem, right? Well, your children and their children and their children would be very fucked. And possibly even you, depending on how quickly the acceleration occurs."

budoucí počasí
Florida-Sized ‘Doomsday Glacier’ Is Retreating Faster and Faster
Florida-Sized 'Doomsday Glacier' Is Retreating Faster and Faster
https://www.vice.com/en/article/doomsday-glacier-predictions-thwaites-antarctica/

The Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica has a very gloomy nickname: The Doomsday Glacier. It got its name from the fact that the collapse of this single enormous glacier, which is roughly the size of Florida, could raise sea levels by 65 cm. That could kick off a domino effect, causing the West Antarctic ice sheet to destabilize and eventually raising sea levels by an additional 3.3 m.

related

Is Humanity REALLY Heading for Population Collapse?! Aaron Bastani meets Paul Morland
https://youtu.be/9TusC0_h100?si=Xf5Wl52Kv_Qa3wrW


During 1960s, fears of planetary ‘overpopulation’ became widespread. And yet, in more recent years, an altogether different worry has emerged: future population decline. Fertility rates have fallen for decades - and in some places centuries - as humans live in cities, gender equality improves and access to birth control becomes widespread. But, according to some, if they fall too far, and too fast, the basis of the modern welfare state is in jeopardy - not to mention our entire economic order. Could falling birth rates, combined with increased life expectancy, even if not universal, really be as big a challenge in the 21st century as climate breakdown and runaway inequality? Or is this just another moral panic with no basis in fact?

To discuss all of that Aaron Bastani is joined by Dr Paul Morland, a demographer whose latest book is titled “No One Left”. Dr Morland’s previous books include “The Human Tide” and “Tomorrow’s People: The Future of Humanity in Ten Numbers

Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣
@rahmstorf
Important preprint: https://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1

1. The authors identified where the #AMOC tipping point is in a state-of-the-art climate model.
2. They identified what are observable & robust precursor signs before tipping in the model.
3. They looked for such warning signs in real ocean data.
4. They found signs that the AMOC tipping point will likely be crossed around mid-century.

Note that the tipping point is where the AMOC collapse starts; it will then take decades to a century until it’s complete.

They found that the critical place to look for warning signs is in the South Atlantic at the latitude 34 South (the tip of South Africa). I first suggested this in a 1996 paper based on theoretical considerations.

Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse
https://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1

TADEAS:

I've Been Sentenced to 5 Years in Prison - Here's Why
https://rogerhallam.com/5-years-in-prison/

My 'crime'?

Giving a talk on civil disobedience as an effective, evidence-based method for stopping the elite from putting enough carbon in the atmosphere to send us to extinction.

I have given hundreds of similar speeches encouraging nonviolent action and have never been arrested for it. This time I was an advisor to the M25 motorway disruption, recommending the action to go ahead to wake up the British public to societal collapse.

I was not part of the planning or action itself.

Jema možná znáte díky jeho publikaci Deep Adaptation, nebo novější knize Breaking Together. Před pár dny vyšlo toto video/dokument.
TV documentary on collapse readiness
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtNIJRbErvE

collapse as usual


Farmer confidence at an all-time low, NFU data reveals | The Grocer
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/sourcing/farmer-confidence-at-an-all-time-low-nfu-data-reveals/691014.article

with 82% of 797 respondents saying their farm businesses had suffered fairly negatively (52%) or very negatively (30%), with mixed farms, arable farms and dairy farms taking the biggest hits.

The survey was taken in November and December 2023 and with the months of rain that have followed it is likely results would be “even worse”, the NFU said.

It is calling for the government to recognise the extraordinary nature of what has been the wettest 18 months since 1836.

Farm business profitability had also decreased, with 65% of respondents saying profits are declining or their business may not survive.

“These figures paint a really stark picture,” said NFU president Tom Bradshaw. “Confidence has collapsed after months of devastating flooding, unsustainably high production costs and low market returns, and against a backdrop of reduced farm support as we transition to a new Domestic Agriculture Policy and associated farm support.”