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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."

    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +2
    Arctic Climate Collapse! This time it's REALLY flipped!!
    https://youtu.be/LrS4PKDln0E?si=za6QYaol7wHREGSk


    The Arctic region has been a massive store of carbon for thousands of years. Now it's warming between 3 and 7 times faster than the global average and that carbon is escaping into our atmosphere. The latest research suggests that more than a third of it is now a net emitter!
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    XCHAOS: mas pravdu, na Spano by to melo asi malej vliv dle projekci, mirny ochlazeni severozapadniho cipu Spanelska.

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    T Nyman
    https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tomi-nyman-0738b8_we-can-stabilize-our-climate-we-know-how-activity-7248577753078222848-4o4l

    My top three denialist waking events are, and expected timing:
    - AMOC tipping
    (-25 € trillion GDP impact in Europe and US East coast, 2037-2064)
    - Thwaites glacier collapse
    (- 5-10 € trillion GDP impact, 2025-2030)
    - Hurricane, cat 3-5, in Europe
    (- 100-200 billion GDP impact, 2025-2030)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +2
    R hallam

    In case you have not noticed, the next big "shock" on the "climate" after the recent admission of going over 1.5C, is going to be the final confirmation that massive ice melt is now locked in for the Antarctic - and 5 metres of sea level rise in the next century is now the main scenario. Of course it will be some time before it is spelt out as clearly as that.

    Reading "climate science" is a bit like looking at statements from some authoritarian state. You have to attend to each word to get that hint that things are a lot worse than they actually are. So much worse in fact that civilisation is now going to collapse. Of course, that is pure speculation!

    https://buff.ly/42b30R4
    https://buff.ly/424b2Ln
    Octopus DNA reveals that Antarctic ice sheet collapse is "close" - Earth.com
    https://buff.ly/4h5BUi8
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    CHOSIE:

    R Hallam
    https://www.facebook.com/share/17r115zhSw/


    Here is James Hansen's great piece on the natural science of the elite's emission of carbon, and not great piece on the social science of the elite's emission of carbon.

    Let's start with social science law number one. Power resides in sovereign states, not global courts. Even if global courts say that what the elites are doing is illegal, nothing will change.

    Social science law number two. States only fundamentally change - change their regimes - when there is material resistance from their populations - national strikes and mass occupations of the streets for several weeks or months. The only effective way to create structural political change in the time we have left is through this civil resistance - in comparison with alternative ineffective methods (voting, lobbying, legal challenge).

    This is a historical no brainer. It has happened hundreds of times over the past two hundred years - most recently in Bangladesh. The primary reason why it is not happening is because of the scientifically illiterate and irrational attachment of the Western liberal and administrative classes to means of change which simply do not work - have not worked for 30 years - and will not work in the future. Because entrenched power does not respond to such methods. Only when the young realise they are being duped by those who continually mislead them, will they do what they always do to create regime change - go on the streets and stay there.

    I have been saying this for 10 years now. Not because I have a particular ideological attachment to civil resistance or public disruption any more than those that report of climate breakdown want ecological collapse to happen. It is simply about what is real.

    Social science law number three is that the liberal class never moves in time. And that is why you end up having full blown revolutions. But of course no one wants to talk about that. Not yet. But it will come, as surely as an apple dropping to the ground. It's Newtonian determinism.
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    1 odpověď+3
    Researchers point out that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is now weaker than at any other time in the past 1,000 years.

    “Our results show the Atlantic overturning circulation is likely to become a third weaker than it was 70 years ago at 2°C of global warming,” says the research team.

    “This would bring big changes to the climate and ecosystems, including faster warming in the southern hemisphere, harsher winters in Europe, and weakening of the northern hemisphere’s tropical monsoons.”

    Think about that for a second. A weaker ocean current could mean colder winters in Europe and shifts in rainfall patterns that affect millions of people. It’s not just about the ocean; it’s about our daily lives.

    Climate projections have suggested the Atlantic overturning circulation will weaken by about 30% by 2060. But hold on — that’s without considering all that extra meltwater.

    “The Greenland ice sheet will continue melting over the coming century, possibly raising global sea level by about 4 inches,” the study notes.

    “If this additional meltwater is included in climate projections, the overturning circulation will weaken faster. It could be 30% weaker by 2040. That’s 20 years earlier than initially projected.”
    https://www.earth.com/news/collapse-of-main-atlantic-ocean-circulaton-current-amoc-is-already-happening/
    Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation driven by subarctic freshening since the mid-twentieth century | Nature Geoscience
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01568-1
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    -1
    TUHO: AMOC collapse chápu jako konec Evropy, ale ne nutně že US a China přestanou pálit fosil. Naopak když se jim trochu ochladí ..

    Takže ta PPM hodnota je vlastně zajímavý hard limit nezávislý na globální teplote. Tak jsem to myslela
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    1 odpověď+1
    Čísla a názory :)

    Kdo je tu štamgast asi si vzpomenete že v době kdy byly predikce 4 stupně vzestupu globální teploty, tak v Postupimi si udělali neofiko konferenci na téma carrying capacity a vyšlo jim že planeta utáhne miliardu lidi. Ale nebyl to peer reviewed výsledek, tak se to považovalo od Shellnhubers za doomisticky výkřik a pod.

    Nicméně teď tu vidím loňský článek, kde se k tomu názoru hlásí i Kevin Anderson a Johan rockstrom, ten teda přitvrdil

    projects that in a 4˚C warmer world, “it’s difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that.”

    Tak asi nějaký vývoj v modelování :)

    Naopak protistrana - nordaus dostal v 2018 Nobelovku za svou práci na téma výhody climate change pro GDP. Optimální vidí 3.5 stupně

    Mezitím jsou populární tipping pointy. Další ekonomové k tomu:

    Dietz and friends came to the astounding conclusion that if all eight were tipped, the economic cost by 2100 would amount to an additional 1.4% of lost GDP on top of the roughly 8 to 12% that Nordhaus projected.

    Už ten r/collapse asi číst nebudu

    https://www.worldenergydata.org/when-idiot-savants-do-climate-economics/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    1 odpověď+2
    snowball europe ,)

    ‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation | Oceans | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +3
    Could Insect Declines Lead To Social Collapse? | Aaron Bastani meets Dave Goulson
    https://youtu.be/LR32Ns7zc6M?si=sLppufnn_mipQnxT


    Insects are the creatures that act as a lubricant in the machine of life. From pollinating vital crops to managing organic waste on a continental scale, their critical role cannot be understated. The problem is that they are quite quickly disappearing.

    Dave Goulson is a world-renowned entomologist and ecologist whose books have communicated the majesty of insects and arthropods whilst providing grave warning to us about their demise.

    He sat down with Aaron to talk about dung beetles, wolves in Sussex and the critical lack of scientific expertise in government
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    1 odpověď+2
    Novy data k AMOC collapse, vcetne pre-printu. Z cyklu #doomed

    "We conclude that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation cannot be considered a low-probability event anymore." - Prof. Sybren Drijfhout et al.

    x.com
    https://x.com/ThierryAaron/status/1849842823954346187?t=XNLPa8bTOQZtPjDlQiJ3Sg&s=19

    A cerstvy summary z guardianu

    ‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation | Oceans | The Guardian
    https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    1 odpověď+10
    Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year. Is nature’s carbon sink failing?
    The sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into climate models – and could rapidly accelerate global heating

    It begins each day at nightfall. As the light disappears, billions of zooplankton, crustaceans and other marine organisms rise to the ocean surface to feed on microscopic algae, returning to the depths at sunrise. The waste from this frenzy – Earth’s largest migration of creatures – sinks to the ocean floor, removing millions of tonnes of carbon from the atmosphere each year.

    This activity is one of thousands of natural processes that regulate the Earth’s climate. Together, the planet’s oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks absorb about half of all human emissions.

    But as the Earth heats up, scientists are increasingly concerned that those crucial processes are breaking down.

    Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year. Is nature’s carbon sink failing? | Oceans | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/14/nature-carbon-sink-collapse-global-heating-models-emissions-targets-evidence-aoe?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    1 odpověď+1
    XCHAOS: collapse now and avoid the rush, jak rikal archdruid ,)

    ale kapitani prumyslu veli accelerate now and don't think about collapse at all
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    2 odpovědi+2
    TADEAS: Think globaly, collapse localy?
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    1 odpověď+4
    Just Collapse
    https://justcollapse.org/

    Just Collapse recognises the impossibility of a globally planned collapse, or degrowth, and instead advocates for localised social and ecological justice.
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    +2
    MARSHUS: "Projections say that the Doomsday Glacier and the Antarctic Ice Sheet’s collapse could occur within the next 200 years. Sure, not your problem, right? Well, your children and their children and their children would be very fucked. And possibly even you, depending on how quickly the acceleration occurs."
    MARSHUS
    MARSHUS --- ---
    2 odpovědi+4
    budoucí počasí
    Florida-Sized ‘Doomsday Glacier’ Is Retreating Faster and Faster
    Florida-Sized 'Doomsday Glacier' Is Retreating Faster and Faster
    https://www.vice.com/en/article/doomsday-glacier-predictions-thwaites-antarctica/

    The Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica has a very gloomy nickname: The Doomsday Glacier. It got its name from the fact that the collapse of this single enormous glacier, which is roughly the size of Florida, could raise sea levels by 65 cm. That could kick off a domino effect, causing the West Antarctic ice sheet to destabilize and eventually raising sea levels by an additional 3.3 m.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    1 odpověď+1
    related

    Is Humanity REALLY Heading for Population Collapse?! Aaron Bastani meets Paul Morland
    https://youtu.be/9TusC0_h100?si=Xf5Wl52Kv_Qa3wrW


    During 1960s, fears of planetary ‘overpopulation’ became widespread. And yet, in more recent years, an altogether different worry has emerged: future population decline. Fertility rates have fallen for decades - and in some places centuries - as humans live in cities, gender equality improves and access to birth control becomes widespread. But, according to some, if they fall too far, and too fast, the basis of the modern welfare state is in jeopardy - not to mention our entire economic order. Could falling birth rates, combined with increased life expectancy, even if not universal, really be as big a challenge in the 21st century as climate breakdown and runaway inequality? Or is this just another moral panic with no basis in fact?

    To discuss all of that Aaron Bastani is joined by Dr Paul Morland, a demographer whose latest book is titled “No One Left”. Dr Morland’s previous books include “The Human Tide” and “Tomorrow’s People: The Future of Humanity in Ten Numbers
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    +3
    Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣
    @rahmstorf
    Important preprint: https://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1

    1. The authors identified where the #AMOC tipping point is in a state-of-the-art climate model.
    2. They identified what are observable & robust precursor signs before tipping in the model.
    3. They looked for such warning signs in real ocean data.
    4. They found signs that the AMOC tipping point will likely be crossed around mid-century.

    Note that the tipping point is where the AMOC collapse starts; it will then take decades to a century until it’s complete.

    They found that the critical place to look for warning signs is in the South Atlantic at the latitude 34 South (the tip of South Africa). I first suggested this in a 1996 paper based on theoretical considerations.

    Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse
    https://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    1 odpověď+3
    Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse
    https://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1
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