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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. ... I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: related

    Antarctica just saw fastest glacier collapse ever recorded
    Antarctica’s Hektoria Glacier lost nearly half its ice in just 2 months after lifting off a flat seabed and shattering apart
    Such events could accelerate global sea level rise much faster than predicted

    Antarctica just saw the fastest glacier collapse ever recorded | ScienceDaily
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/02/260226042454.htm
    TADEAS
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    Suicide (Paperback) – JUST RELEASED – Revolution in the 21st Century
    https://rev21.earth/product/suicide/

    From a cell in Wayland Prison, Roger Hallam—farmer, researcher, and co-founder of Just Stop Oil—delivers a searing indictment of a legal system that punishes those who resist, while protecting those who destroy. In July 2024, Hallam was dragged from a British courtroom for refusing to stay silent about the climate crisis. For “conspiracy to cause a public nuisance,” he was sentenced to five years in prison, the harshest punishment for civil disobedience in the UK in modern British history. The case made front-page news and drew global outcry.

    Suicide is part memoir, part political reckoning. Drawing on Hallam’s award-winning research and experience representing himself in four Crown Court trials, it lays bare the moral and legal failures of a society sleepwalking into catastrophe. From climate science and the right of necessity, to the collapse of democratic norms and the illusions of secular reason, this is a radical call to rethink justice, truth, and duty in the face of extinction.
    TADEAS
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    A New Calculation of Global Trends. Are we Close to Collapse?
    https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/a-new-calculation-of-global-trends

    Here, Berndt Warm describes an update based on the “World3” model, directly based on the German case and on the idea that motor vehicles are a “proxy” for the whole economic system.

    Warm’s main result is shown at the beginning of this post. The world’s industrial system appears to be at the peak, while the global decline of population is expected to start around 2030. Don’t take this, or any other model-based scenarios, as prophecies; they are extrapolations of the existing data based on reasonable assumptions.

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    IEA, NO PROGRESS ON COAL CONSUMPTION TO 2030

    International Energy Agency, Coal 2025.

    2030 World coal consumption 55% higher than 2000, and the same as 2020.

    China 2030 projected same as 2020.

    China's big 2020 jump is maintained

    World headed for climatic biospere collapse fast.

    https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/113a8274-500c-4684-951f-947d25bef3c9/Coal2025.pdf

    FB-IMG-1771415699915
    TADEAS
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    R Hallam

    Isn't this also treason - only publish a "partial" version of a report of the greatest ever threat to the UK state? Again - just saying - obviously people will say in 2026 calling it treason is bonkers, but then in 2036 won't people be saying it's bonkers that anyone cannot see that it is treason?
    "On that, the UK’s Joint Intelligence Committee, on which heads of MI5 and MI6 sit, would surely agree. Last month, a partial version of its national security assessment of global biodiversity loss was published, and it came with a stark warning: some ecosystems will start to collapse “by 2030 or sooner”, posing an immediate threat to national security, prosperity, food systems and public health. There won’t be enough water for people to drink or food to eat; livelihoods will be lost; displacement and migration will accelerate, and geopolitical competition for resources will intensify."

    Biodiversity collapse threatens UK security, intelligence chiefs warn | Biodiversity | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jan/20/biodiversity-collapse-threatens-uk-security-intelligence-chiefs-warn
    TADEAS
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    Governments must fix ‘faulty radar’ in economic climate models as storm approaches, scientists warn - Carbon Tracker Initiative
    https://carbontracker.org/governments-must-fix-faulty-radar-in-economic-climate-models-as-storm-approaches-scientists-warn/

    Flawed economic models mean climate crisis could crash global economy, experts warn | Green economy | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/05/flawed-economic-models-mean-climate-crisis-could-crash-global-economy-experts-warn



    This report by the Carbon Tracker Initiative and the University of Exeter makes clear that the economic modeling currently employed by many governments, regulators, and financial managers greatly underestimates the potential impacts of climate change. What this means is that we are speeding towards Armageddon while wearing rose-tinted glasses.

    - - - - - - - - - -

    "Flawed economic models mean the accelerating impact of the climate crisis could lead to a global financial crash, experts warn.

    Recovery would be far harder than after the 2008 financial crash, they said, as “we can’t bail out the Earth like we did the banks”.

    As the world speeds towards 2C of global heating, the risks of extreme weather disasters and climate tipping points are increasing fast. But current economic models used by governments and financial institutions entirely miss such shocks, the researchers said, instead forecasting that steady economic growth will be slowed only by gradually rising average temperatures. This is because the models assume the future will behave like the past, despite the burning of fossil fuels pushing the climate system into uncharted territory.

    Tipping points, such as the collapse of critical Atlantic currents or the Greenland ice sheet, would have global consequences for society. Some are thought to be at, or very close to, their tipping points but the timing is difficult to predict. Combined extreme weather disasters could wipe out national economies, the researchers, from the University of Exeter and financial thinktank Carbon Tracker Initiative, said.

    Their report concludes governments, regulators and financial managers must pay far more attention to these high impact but lower likelihood risks, because avoiding irreversible outcomes by cutting carbon emissions is far cheaper than trying to cope with them.

    “We’re not dealing with manageable economic adjustments,” said Dr Jesse Abrams, at the University of Exeter. “The climate scientists we surveyed were unambiguous: current economic models can’t capture what matters most – the cascading failures and compounding shocks that define climate risk in a warmer world – and could undermine the very foundations of economic growth.”

    “For financial institutions and policymakers, it’s a fundamental misreading of the risks we face,” he said. “We are thinking about something like a 2008 [crash], but one we can’t recover from as well. Once we have ecosystem breakdown or climate breakdown, we can’t bail out the Earth like we did the banks.”

    Mark Campanale, CEO of Carbon Tracker, said: “The net result of flawed economic advice is widespread complacency amongst investors and policymakers. There’s a tendency in certain government departments to trivialise the impacts of climate on the economy so as to avoid making difficult choices today. This is a big problem – the consequences of delay are catastrophic.”

    Hetal Patel, at Phoenix Group, which manages about £300bn of long-term investments for its customers, said: “Underestimating physical risk doesn’t just distort investment decisions, it underplays the real‑world consequences that will ultimately affect society as a whole.”

    Actuaries predicted in 2025 that the global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 from catastrophic climate shocks, far higher than previously estimated.

    The new report drew on expert judgments from 68 climate scientists from research institutions and government agencies in the UK, US, China and nine other countries. A key finding was that while economic modelling traditionally links climate damages to changes in average temperatures, societies and markets suffer most from extremes, such as heatwaves, floods and droughts.

    Another finding was that GDP can mask the full cost of climate damage by failing to account for deaths and ill health, social disruption and degraded ecosystems. GDP can actually increase after disasters owing to spending on recovery, the researchers added.

    They said that rather than waiting for perfect models of risk, greater emphasis should be placed on extremes, not just central estimates, and on the vulnerability of the entire financial system. Investors should also speed up the move away from fossil fuels as a fiduciary duty to avoid large future losses, said Campanale.

    Current economic models can give estimates of losses that look precise but which the scientists said were wildly optimistic. “Some are saying we’ll have a 10% GDP loss at between 3C and 4C degrees [of global heating], but the physical climate scientists are saying the economy and society will cease to function as we know it. That’s a big mismatch,” Abrams said.

    Laurie Laybourn, at the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, said: “We are currently living through a paradigm shift in the speed, scale and severity of risks driven by the climate-nature crisis. Yet many regulations and government actions are dangerously out of touch with reality.” - Damian Carrington
    TADEAS
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    Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapseand national security - A national security assessment

    Nature security assessment on global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security - GOV.UK
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nature-security-assessment-on-global-biodiversity-loss-ecosystem-collapse-and-national-security

    This assessment is an analysis of how global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse could affect UK national security.

    It shows how environmental degradation can disrupt food, water, health and supply chains, and trigger wider geopolitical instability. It identifies 6 ecosystems of strategic importance for the UK and explores how their decline could drive cascading global impacts.

    This assessment, which was developed by analysts and experts across HM Government, supports long-term resilience planning. Publishing the assessment highlights opportunities for innovation, green finance and global partnerships that can drive growth while safeguarding the ecosystems that underpin our collective security and prosperity.
    TADEAS
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    BOREC: collapse is the solution
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: aneb naznaky klimatickeho povstani, pro mainstream levicova anarchie.


    We can no longer afford the rich.
    We can initiate the end of the imperial lifestyle.
    We can stop the plundering of the Earth.
    In the greed for energy, the Earth is being drained, sucked dry, burned, abused, razed, raped, and destroyed. Entire regions are rendered uninhabitable by the heat. They simply burn up. Or habitats disappear beneath the waves during floods or due to rising sea levels.
    Shutting down fossil fuel power plants is a task that can be accomplished by hand. Have courage.
    We know we must interrupt this destruction. We know we are not alone. Don't give up hope for a world where life has space, not the greed for money, power, and destruction.

    ...

    Last year, the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere rose to 423.9 parts per million, a value that surpasses all previous records. At the same time, climate scientists agree that the massive transatlantic ocean currents will collapse sooner or later due to global warming. This collapse of ocean currents, which has so far afforded the North a mild climate, is only one part of the catastrophe that awaits us. The extent of this devastation is simply ignored, abstracted, and discussed at global climate conferences until the scale of the destruction disappears into tables and declarations of intent.
    But the insatiable hunger for energy is eating its way through the Earth's crust and our lives, among other things to feed artificial intelligence, which then spouts stereotypes and absurdities, confusing, disorienting, and/or manipulating us. Meanwhile, with each new "learning" of the AI ​​using previous data, language, expression, and vitality are increasingly reduced, mutilated, and limited.

    ...

    We don't claim to know the way out. But we do know we must stop this destruction. Hedonism can no longer hold us captive once we've tasted the sweat of fear that spreads when there's no way out. No going forward, no going back. Only the horror of where we, as humanity, have ended up. When the question falls back on us, what did you actually do to prevent what was coming? You saw it coming, the survivors, the next generations, ask us. Please don't bring up the political parties. Please don't bring up the brown-shirted alternatives in pinstriped suits and dresses. And not the Greens or the Left either. Don't bring up the economy, whose free market will supposedly solve the problem. Economics and politics deal with death every day. With dictatorships and butchers. Their concerns vanish into thin air when it comes to satisfying our energy needs, for example. Russia is still supplying gas to Europe via Nord Stream 1. And the US wants Venezuela's oil. That's why military attacks are now taking place. And fracked gas arrives by ship from all over the world. Currently, 79% comes from the USA! Fracking is extremely environmentally damaging in its production. Even during extraction, a methane loss of 6 to 10 percent is assumed, which further warms the atmosphere.

    95% of the gas burned in Germany is imported. At climate summits, only tactical lip service is forthcoming because the oil-producing countries are not interested in climate protection but in money. Because the major cities base their policies on money and growth, lobbyists in Europe are being handed the end of the combustion engine phase-out.

    For example, the German Minister of Economic Affairs, Katharina Reiche, was State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Transport, a lobbyist for the Association of Municipal Enterprises (VKM), and a manager at the E.ON subsidiary Westenergie. Minister Reiche presents herself as a supporter of hydrogen but primarily relies on natural gas. She intends to issue tenders for additional gas-fired power plants with a capacity of 10 gigawatts, which are to be connected to the grid by 2031, corresponding to approximately 25 new power plants. 20 billion euros are earmarked for these new gas-fired power plants.

    Reiche would prefer to postpone Germany's climate neutrality target from 2045 to 2050 anyway.

    The main culprits behind human-induced climate destruction are not those who suffer the most, those who pay with their health and their lives. The people of the Global South are already paying the highest price. The countries of the Global North, and soon China among others, are deciding the fate of everyone. China, as a communist, racist, and patriarchal dictatorship, can use "rare earth elements" to blackmail countries that don't toe the line, gradually weaving countries, cultures, and political systems into the cocoon of this new dictatorial world power. Over 85% of the world's refined "rare earth elements" come from China. And it is the rich who are the problem. It is the super-rich who are setting the world ablaze. In the East, in the West, in the South, and in the North. Sixty percent of the super-rich's investments worldwide go into gas and oil. And around 300 super-rich countries emit more CO₂ than the 110 poorest countries in the world. These criminals know it. They don't care. Their greed for even more wealth and power sets the standard by which everyone else follows
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    AMOC collapse would like a word
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Are we on the Edge of Collapse? Impressive Data from a Recalibration of World3
    https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/are-we-on-the-edge-of-collapse-impressive

    According to this model, the collapse of industrial production should start next year. Agricultural collapse will be at about the same time. Population should start collapsing a few years later, and pollution will reach a peak around 2080 at levels some three times higher than the current ones. If this is a good prediction, we are in for a rough ride, a VERY rough ride.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.13442

    IOM_NUKSO
    IOM_NUKSO --- ---
    TADEAS: ode mne to chce subscribe, tak kdyz tak tady
    Acrucial system of ocean currents may be on course to collapse. This country just declared it a national security threat
    https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/15/climate/iceland-warming-current-amoc-collapse-threat

    In September, Iceland’s National Security Council designated the current’s potential collapse as a national security risk, marking the first time a climate impact has received this designation in the country.
    TADEAS
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    TADEAS
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    OIL/GAS EXPANSION UP 33% SINCE 2021

    Urgewald (German NGO) Companies spent US $60.3 billion annually on exploration over the past 3 years.

    The top explorer is China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) with US $6.6 billion, a year. This is no peak. It's global collapse of the human population and life on Earth.

    https://gogel.org/sites/default/files/2025-11/Urgewald_PR_GOGEL-2025.pdf

    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    Sucha v Teheránu: městu dochází voda, nádrž Amír Kabír je vyschlá - iDNES.cz
    https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/zahranicni/teheran-sucho-nadrz-voda-amir-kabir.A251103_090842_zahranicni_jhr

    Drought, sand storms and evacuations: how Iran’s climate crisis gets ignored
    https://theconversation.com/drought-sand-storms-and-evacuations-how-irans-climate-crisis-gets-ignored-266725

    Teherán, který má více než deset milionů obyvatel, leží u úbočí pohoří Alborz. Obyvatelé hlavního města spotřebují za den zhruba tři miliony metrů krychlových vody. Z důvodu úspor přerušila správa Teheránu v posledních dnech v několika částech města dodávky vody, informovala dále média. Stávalo se tak často i v létě. „Situace s nedostatkem vody je daleko vážnější, než jak o ní dnes mluvíme,“ řekl íránský prezident Masúd Pezeškján. Vyzval proto občany, aby vodou neplýtvali.

    Zkraje tohoto měsíce pak Pezeškján prohlásil, že Írán nemá na výběr a bude muset hlavní město „přestěhovat“. V prohlášení, které časopis Time popisuje jako „vzácné přiznání vlastního selhání“, prezident také slíbil v přepočtu milion dolarů komukoliv, kdo přijde s řešením této krize.

    Její rozměry jsou viditelné i z vesmíru a na satelitních snímcích. Téměř úplně už například „zmizelo“ Urmijské jezero, které ještě před pár desítkami let bývalo největším jezerem na celém Blízkém východě, a poušť se stává i z bývalých mokřadů na severozápadě země.

    Vodu letos v létě úřady odepřely například bazénům a mluví se o plánu zastavit veškerou novou výstavbu na dva roky. Časté byly letos i výpadky vody v domácnostech. Podle deníku New York Times odvolávajícího se na výpovědi místních trvaly v některých čtvrtích hlavního města i 48 hodin. Úřady také musely snižovat tlak v potrubích, což způsobovalo nedostupnost vody ve vyšších patrech budov.

    S úbytkem vody v krajině také roste riziko vzniku nebezpečných pouštních bouří, které mohou uvěznit doma i miliony lidí či poslat tisíce do nemocnice s respiračními problémy.

    How Iran’s water crisis could spark collapse
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtcTG8-qzbA
    TADEAS
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    Goliath's Curse: Climate, Inequality, and Societal Collapse | Luke Kemp
    https://youtu.be/K1le5Sj7Qp4?si=YPqB36jJrqKTqzC6


    As soon as inequality in resources tipped over into inequality in power, Goliath-like states and empires, with vast bureaucracies and militaries like our own, began carving up and dominating the globe.

    What brought them down? Compounding inequality and concentrations of power, says Luke Kemp, research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge.

    According to Kemp — nicknamed "Dr. Doom" by some of his colleagues — we now live in a single, global Goliath. In this talk, recorded at BESI on September 30, 2025, Kemp explore the ways growth-obsessed, extractive institutions like the fossil fuel industry, Big Tech, and military-industrial complexes rule our world and produce new ways of annihilating our species, from climate change to nuclear war.
    TADEAS
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    Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections - IOPscience
    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b

    One author said: "We found that (on our current policy trajectory) the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so." AMOC collapse would then follow by 50-100 years.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Toplist pro priznivce checklistu. Od pohledu uz budem nejmin za tretinou, lokalni stastlivci budou mit za chvili bingo

    Top 40 Impacts of Climate Change

    1. Acid rain
    2. Algae blooms
    3. Ash & smoke
    4. Bees dying & pollination loss
    5. Climate refugees & migration
    6. Coral bleaching
    7. Crop failures
    8. Deforestation
    9. Desertification
    10. Disease, pandemics (plants & animals)
    11. Droughts
    12. Drying up of lakes, rivers, wells, springs
    13. Earth axis shift
    14. Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanoes
    15. Extreme cold
    16. Financial/bank/stock collapse
    17. Fires
    18. Floods
    19. Food & water riots
    20. Hazardous, smoke-filled & polluted air
    21. Heat waves: frequency, power, duration
    22. Hunger, famine & starvation
    23. Infrastructure collapse
    24. Melting Antarctic & Greenland land ice
    25. Melting Arctic & Antarctic sea ice / Blue Ocean Event
    26. Melting glaciers (drinking water crisis)
    27. Methane bomb (Siberian permafrost methane & Clathrates from ESAS)
    28. Nuclear plant meltdown
    29. Ocean acidification & deoxygenation
    30. Ozone layer depletion
    31. Permafrost thaw
    32. Price instability & inflation
    33. Reanimated bacteria/viruses
    34. Sea level rise (e.g. Thwaites glacier)
    35. Shutdown of AMOC, SMOC
    36. Species extinction (100+/day)
    37. Storms — more frequent, power, duration
    38. Supply chain & transportation collapse
    39. Unemployment & poverty
    40. War, extremism, fascism & terrorism

    Top 40 Impacts of Climate Change – Watching the World Go Bye
    https://climatecasino.net/2021/10/top-40-impacts-of-climate-change/
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    “New research explores climate change and the limits of human progress…

    "The deeper problem, he argues, lies in the complexity of civilization itself—a global industrial society that has grown both unsustainably expensive and dangerously vulnerable to the environmental stresses that accompany climate change."

    "A lot of people confuse pessimism with nihilism, apathy and despair," Scranton said. "But pessimism is actually about recognizing our limits, letting go of unrealistic goals, finding solidarity in the fact of human suffering and doing what you can now, not in some utopian future."

    "Modern pessimism emerged as a skeptical critique of early Enlightenment hubris, but it has roots in ancient wisdom from Sophocles to the Bhagavad Gita. Both the history of philosophy and modern insights from psychology show that pessimism is not only an effective way to deal with big problems, but a healthy approach to the unpredictability of circumstance, especially in fraught and difficult times."

    In "Impasse," Scranton examines the "myth of progress"—how cultures have navigated societal collapse, failures in climate change communication, political extremism and "the end of the world as we know it"—ultimately concluding that the situation does not seem to be comprehensible within progressive modernity.

    "Pessimism is fundamentally about recognizing and living within natural human limits,” Scranton writes. “It’s about recognizing that suffering is inevitable but not unbearable. It’s about learning to die and learning to live with death. And finally, it’s about committing to a radical and paradoxical hope: the hope that life might be worth living after the end of the world."

    https://phys.org/news/2025-09-explores-climate-limits-human.html
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds | Oceans | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse-critical-atlantic-current-amoc-no-longer-low-likelihood-study
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam