Jiri Jerabek

Co slibují německé strany ve volbách v energetice a klimatu? 🇩🇪💚⚡
Klimatickou neutralitu a rozvoj OZE chtějí všechny kromě AFD. EU ETS 2 a brzký konec uhlí podporuje také většina. Oživení jádra moc silné zastoupení nemá, analyzovat to chtějí CDU a hodně to chtějí AFD. Širší podporu má zrušení národní regulace týkající se budoucího zákazu vytápění plynem, či odsunutí zákazu spalováků. 3 strany navrhují omezení rycholosti na dálnícich.
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1) CDU/CSU
Klimatická neutralita do roku 2045 (ale hospodárněji, made in Germany a s nižší cenou energie)
Uhlí do roku 2038, případné urychlení nevylučují, ale podmiňují ekonomickou proveditelností.
Chtějí umožnit produkci spalovacích motorů na e-paliva i po 2035.
Chtějí prověřit technické a finanční možnosti obnovení provozu nedávno odstavených jaderných elektráren
Podporuji EU ETS2, ale výnosy se nemají přerozdělovat do zahraničí.
2) SPD
Klimatická neutralita do roku 2045.
Kompenzace pro nízkopříjmové skupiny a úpravy cen energií tak, aby dopady transformace nebyly neúnosné.
ETS 2: s jasnými kompenzacemi pro domácnosti.
Konec spalovacích motorů: 2035.
Jaderná energetika: Trvají na jejím definitivním ukončení.
Tempolimit: 130 km/h
3) Zelení
Usilují o odklon od uhlí už do roku 2030 a tvrdí, že reálná dekarbonizace průmyslu i dopravy může přijít dříve než 2045.
Podporují rychlejší a výraznější zavedení ETS 2 i vyšší uhlíkovou daň.
Konec spalovacích aut: 2035, ideálně by jej ještě uspíšili.
Jaderná energetika: Jasné odmítnutí.
Tempolimit: 130 km/h
4) FDP
Klimaneutralitu posunout na 2050
ETS 2: Podporují rozšíření obchodování s emisemi na dopravu a vytápění, preferují tento tržní nástroj před „zákazy a omezeními“
Konec spalovacích aut: Nesouhlasí s plošným zákazem
Jaderná energetika: chtějí výstabu jádra nové generace či fůzi
5) Levice
Požadují vracení výnosů z emisních povolenek přímo lidem (uhlíková dividenda).
Konec spalovacích aut: 2035, ale chtějí finanční podporu pro sociálně slabší,
Jaderná energetika: Jednoznačně proti návratu k jádru.
6) AfD
Odmítnutí klimatické politiky: Zpochybňují lidský vliv na změnu klimatu.
Stop „Energiewende“: Požadují posílení klasických zdrojů energie (uhlí, zemní plyn), otevřeně podporují také jadernou energetiku.
Konec spalovacích aut: Rezolutní nesouhlas - ohrožení automobilového průmyslu a svobody jednotlivce.
7) Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht
Klimatická politika nesmí nepřiměřeně zatěžovat nízkopříjmové domácnosti a pracující třídu. Chtějí státní kontrolu cen energií a odmítají růst nákladů na benzín či vytápění bez dostupné alternativy.
Považují jednostranné zaměření na obnovitelné zdroje a elektrifikaci za riskantní.
Jaderná energetika: proti
Emisní povolenky (ETS 2): Kritizují jejich dopad na domácnosti a považují jejich rozšíření za problematické.
BSW podporuje rozvoj energetických družstev a lokálních řešení, která zahrnují komunitní fotovoltaiku aj.

Lehce k programu AfD

The AfD Program:
- Withdrawal from the EU
- Exit the Euro (€)
- Reversal of the transformation to renewable energies
- Reversing the phase-out of coal and nuclear power
- Withdrawal from Nato
- Expel all foreigners (as Hitler's Germany planned and did)

This is the party Elon said will save Germany - unbelievable.

SCHWEPZ: vetrny turbiny prece zpusobily ten pozar v LA. predpovedeli to uz simpsonovi



Thousands protest at far-right AfD rally as German election campaign begins | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/afd-germany-election-alice-weidel-elon-musk-wind-turbines-b2677965.html

AfD would tear down all wind turbines – which she described as “windmills of shame” – if it came to power

TUHO: Hm, hodne smutny. AfD, ktera otevrene koketuje s neonacismem, je masivne podporovana Ruskem a Naomi Seibt je fosilni lobby podporovana jako tzv Anti-Greta, pozdjie taky aktivni v anti-vax scene. Smutnej vyvoj a nebezpecnej. Nemam z toho ani trochu dobrej pocit. Zatim to vypada, ze druhej mandat Trumpa bude jeste vetsi katastrofa nez ten prvni. A bohuzel nejen pro USA:

Elon Musk @elonmusk
Only the AfD can save Germany

@SeibtNaomi
🚨🇩🇪CHANCELLOR FRONTRUNNER SLAMS MUSK & MILEI❗️
The presumptive next chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) is horrified by the idea that Germany should follow Elon Musk’s and Javier Milei’s example.
He staunchly rejects a pro-freedom approach and refuses any discussion with the AfD.
Show more
...
x.com
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1869986946031988780

Climate crisis leaves European farmers vulnerable to far right, say campaigners | Europe | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/04/climate-crisis-europe-farmers-vulnerable-far-right

In recent years, farmers in western Europe have fought with increasing ferocity against policies to protect the planet that they say cost them too much. From the Netherlands, where the backlash has been strongest, to Belgium, France, Spain, Ireland, Germany and the UK, protests have led to convoys of tractors clogging roads and ports, farmer-led occupations of capital cities and even cows being herded into the offices of government ministers.

These movements have been fuelled by the genuine grievances of farmers, who say that the burden of paying more for their pollution is a step too far, after an energy crisis and pandemic left many struggling to make ends meet. They say they feel overburdened by rules and undervalued by city dwellers, who eat the food they grow without any interest in where it came from.

...

Richard Seymour, whose latest book, Disaster Nationalism, examines how the far-right is capitalising on economic shocks and climate chaos, small farmers reeling from the blows of globalisation, a changing climate, and high energy prices is part of a wider trend.

Seymour said: “For farmers there’s all of this resentment requiring a target. But many of the things that are causing the harm – globalisation, capitalism, climate change – are abstract; you can’t take climate change to court, you can’t shoot globalisation … But conspiracy theories and far-right narratives allow you to identify some specific individuals or groups – cultural Marxists, globalists, Muslims – who are doing you down, that is the appeal.”

“Downwardly mobile” farmers – those that have seen their living standards and social standing decline during their lifetimes – are particularly susceptible, according to Seymour. “The toxic feeling of failure, the feeling of being buffeted by these global forces, the feeling you have been abandoned, betrayed, when you traditionally had some sort of status, that is a toxic mix and that is where the far right comes in.”

Německo schválilo plány na výstavbu vodíkové sítě za přibližně 19 miliard eur, v přepočtu zhruba 459 miliard korun. Návrhy tamních provozovatelů přenosových soustav počítají s tím, že vodíková síť bude kompletně zprovozněna už do roku 2032. Projekt má zemi pomoci s dosažením klimatické neutrality do roku 2045.

Délka německé vodíkové sítě má dosahovat na 9 040 kilometrů a očekává se, že bude plně funkční již do osmi let. Má propojit i klíčová průmyslová centra včetně důležitých výrobců oceli, kteří v posledních letech pracují na dekarbonizaci své výroby, píše agentura Bloomberg.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-22/germany-approves-plans-for-19-billion-hydrogen-network?srnd=homepage-europe
Investice za půl bilionu. Německo schválilo plány na vybudování vodíkové sítě - iDNES.cz
https://www.idnes.cz/ekonomika/zahranicni/nemecko-vodik-infrastruktura-investice-sit-plynovod-naklady.A241023_131937_eko-zahranicni_jla

meanwhile:
x.com
https://x.com/GeoRebekah/status/1843380512020410673
Rebekah Jones
@GeoRebekah
Double, triple and quadruple checked it.

Number of extra-tropical systems maintaining tropical storm wind speed and hurricane features through France and into Germany since 1851:

0.
Null.
Zéro.

By Thursday, that number will be 1.

20 let staré studie (níže), tedy dnes nepříliš relevatní, vzhledem k obrovskému posunu v klimatologii, ale jen pro kontext.
Těch faktorů je samozřejmě více, ale pakliže má člověk povědomí o tom jak planetární systémy fungují a jsou ovlivněny, tak je zkrátka realitou, že jakýkoliv extrém je dnes amplifikován globálním ohříváním - ať už mluvíme o síle nebo četnosti.

Ač se energetická bilance opravdu rozjela až v začátcích 21. století, tan surplus byl obrovský již na přelomu století


Summer Floods in Central Europe – Climate Change Track? (2005)

In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in
particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive
2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe.

Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas,
one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic
domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems
(land-cover changes – urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation),
and climate system.
The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus
potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate.

General acceleration of hydrological cycle in the warming world, observed already to
some extent and projected in the future to a larger extent, leads to the con-
clusion that intense summer precipitation events could be on the rise.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-004-4547-6


The central European floods of August 2002: Part 2 - Synoptic causes and considerations with respect to climatic change (2003)

The Elbe flood of August 2002 was caused by extreme rainfall in a large area. The associated
circulation pattern was rather typical of previous flood events both in recent years and in
the more distant past.

The model simulations consid ered suggest that their frequency might increase in the future.

According to Fricke and Kaminski (2001) an increase of days with extreme precipitation can
already be observed in the long station time-series of the Hohenpeissenberg Observatory
in southern Germany.

This seems to agree with the trends produced in simulations of anthropogenic climate change.

https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/32832/

:))

Fossil Fuel Companies Build Structures To Hide Methane Flaring From Satellites - CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2024/05/03/fossil-fuel-companies-build-structures-to-hide-methane-flaring-from-satellites/

According to a report in The Guardian, oil and gas equipment intended to cut methane emissions is preventing scientists from accurately detecting greenhouse gases and pollutants, a satellite image investigation has revealed. In the US, UK, Germany, and Norway, they have installed technology that could stop researchers from identifying methane, carbon dioxide emissions, and pollutants at industrial facilities that regularly employ flaring.

TUHO: “Our analysis shows that climate change will cause massive economic damages within the next 25 years in almost all countries around the world, also in highly-developed ones such as Germany, France and the United States,” says PIK scientist Leonie Wenz who led the study. ”These near-term damages are a result of our past emissions. We will need more adaptation efforts if we want to avoid at least some of them. And we have to cut down our emissions drastically and immediately – if not, economic losses will become even bigger in the second half of the century, amounting to up to 60% on global average by 2100. This clearly shows that protecting our climate is much cheaper than not doing so, and that is without even considering non-economic impacts such as loss of life or biodiversity.”

38 trillion dollars in damages each year: World economy already committed to income reduction of 19 % due to climate change — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/38-trillion-dollars-in-damages-each-year-world-economy-already-committed-to-income-reduction-of-19-due-to-climate-change

Ministers of Germany, Brazil, South Africa and Spain: why we need a global tax on billionaires | Svenja Schulze, Fernando Haddad, Enoch Godongwana, María Jesús Montero and Carlos Cuerpo | The Guardian...
https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2024/apr/25/ministers-of-germany-brazil-south-africa-and-spain-why-we-need-a-global-tax-on-billionaires

The renowned economist Gabriel Zucman sketched out how this might work. Currently, there are about 3,000 billionaires worldwide. The tax could be designed as a minimum levy equivalent to 2% of the wealth of the super-rich. It would not apply to billionaires who already contribute a fair share in income taxes. However, those who manage to avoid paying income tax would be obliged to contribute more towards the common good.

The argument behind such tax is straightforward: we need to enhance the ability of our tax systems to fulfil the principle of fairness, such that contributions are in line with the capacity to pay. Persisting loopholes in the system imply that high-net-worth individuals can minimise their income taxes. Global billionaires pay only the equivalent of up to 0.5% of their wealth in personal income tax. It is crucial to ensure that our tax systems provide certainty, raise sufficient revenues, and treat all of our citizens fairly.

UK facing food shortages and price rises after extreme weather | Farming | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/16/uk-facing-food-shortages-and-price-rises-after-extreme-weather

The UK faces food shortages and price rises as extreme weather linked to climate breakdown causes low yields on farms locally and abroad.

Record rainfall has meant farmers in many parts of the UK have been unable to plant crops such as potatoes, wheat and vegetables during the key spring season. Crops that have been planted are of poor quality, with some rotting in the ground.

The persistent wet weather has also meant a high mortality rate for lambs on the UK’s hills, while some dairy cows have been unable to be turned out on to grass, meaning they will produce less milk.

Agricultural groups have said the UK will be more reliant on imports, but similarly wet conditions in European countries such as France and Germany, as well as drought in Morocco, could mean there is less food to import. Economists have warned this could cause food inflation to rise, meaning higher prices at supermarkets.

Tom Bradshaw, the president of the National Farmers’ Union, said markets had “collapsed” as farmers fail to produce food in the punishing conditions. He said: “We’re going to be importing a lot more product this year.”

...

France is experiencing the poorest start to its wheat-growing season since 2020 amid cold wet weather, while production of fruit and vegetables in Morocco is being affected by drought. Morocco’s second-largest reservoir has dried up, meaning irrigating crops will be difficult.

Amber Sawyer, an analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said last year almost a third of the UK’s tomatoes, and more than two-thirds of its raspberries and brussels sprouts, came from Morocco.

“As climate change worsens, the threat to our food supply chains – both at home and overseas – will grow,” Sawyer said.

Germany is a case study — perhaps the case study — of a Western middle power which made a strategic bet on a full embrace of interdependence and globalization in the late 20th century: it outsourced its security to the U.S., its export-led growth to China, and its energy needs to Russia. It is now finding itself excruciatingly vulnerable in an early 21st century characterized by great power competition and an increasing weaponization of interdependence by allies and adversaries alike. The war in Ukraine, which touches on almost every one of Germany’s bilateral, regional, and global interests, only accentuates its exposure. That this horrific conflict is taking place in the region that was part of the “Bloodlands” (the term coined by Yale historian Timothy Snyder), where Hitler and (to a lesser degree) Stalin murdered tens of millions of people is lost on few of my fellow citizens.

For much of the three decades after German reunification in 1990, Berlin saw Moscow (as well as Beijing) as a reliable strategic partner in a two-way bargain: Germany would import cheap energy, and export good governance in much the way that Eastern Europe had been transformed through entry into NATO and the EU. Ultimately, German policymakers hoped, this would transform not only these countries’ economies but also their political systems. And they believed — in an attempt to reconfigure West Germany’s Cold War Ostpolitik for a united Germany in the middle of Europe — that NATO and the European Union could and should be encompassed in a pan-European security architecture that included Russia.

The Kremlin, for its part, saw Germany as a friend, a partner, and as a strategic bridgehead into Europe — not least because it was importing roughly a third of its oil and gas from Russia. What the Germans called their “modernization partnership” with Moscow made for excellent business for a while; but in every other way, it proved to be a failure. Economic integration turned out to be strictly downstream, while many German businesses got burned by corruption and organized crime; political reform remained elusive.

Putin’s war and European energy security: A German perspective on decoupling from Russian fossil fuels | Brookings
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/putins-war-and-european-energy-security-a-german-perspective-on-decoupling-from-russian-fossil-fuels/