Extreme Sahel heatwave that hit highly vulnerable population at the end of Ramadan would not have occurred without climate change – World Weather Attributionhttps://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-sahel-heatwave-that-hit-highly-vulnerable-population-at-the-end-of-ramadan-would-not-have-occurred-without-climate-change/Extreme temperatures were reported across the Sahel, including in Senegal, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria and Chad. In many of these countries power cuts occurred during the heat episode, making it especially difficult for the population to cope with the extreme temperatures.
Heatwaves are arguably the deadliest type of extreme weather event and while the death toll is often underreported and not known until months after the event, a surge in hospital admissions and deaths were reported from the Gabriel Touré hospital in Bamako, Mali between 1-4 April (Bahati, 2024).
The hospital recorded 102 deaths over the four-day period, which is significantly more than expected – in April 2023, the hospital recorded 130 deaths over the entire month (JolibaFM, 2024). While statistics for the cause of death have not been reported, around half were over the age of 60, and the hospital reports that heat likely played a role in many of the deaths. Furthermore, up to 44 bodies were buried in one cemetery in Bamako on Friday 5 April after the weekly service (DW 2024).
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To estimate the influence that human-caused climate change has had on the extreme heat since the climate was 1.2°C cooler, we combine climate models with observations. Observations and models both show that heatwaves with the magnitude observed in March and April 2024 in the region would have been impossible to occur without the global warming of 1.2°C to date.