• úvod
  • témata
  • události
  • tržiště
  • diskuze
  • nástěnka
  • přihlásit
    registrace
    ztracené heslo?
    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective
    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."

    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. ... I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.

    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Europeans should learn to love the air-conditioner
    https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/06/18/europeans-should-learn-to-love-the-air-conditioner

    ❝ Americans and Europeans differ loudly on many issues, from health-care policy to gun-carrying etiquette. But a quieter division appears every summer when they visit each other’s continents. Europeans touring America complain that shops and restaurants are so frigidly air-conditioned as to require a jacket; step outside again and your glasses fog over. Yanks holidaying in Europe expect cool comfort, and grow surly on finding that many old-world buildings require them to sweat and bear it.

    The divide is rooted in both climate and culture. Long before General Electric began cooling using circulating chemicals, southern Europe was built to handle heat. In traditional houses, white paint and shaded courtyards keep things cool. Windows are thrown open and rooms aired in the mornings. Shutters keep out the midday sun, and siestas allow one to skip the hours when it is too hot to do much anyway. Europe’s southerners think coddled Americans don’t know how to cope with heat naturally. Northern Europe, meanwhile, is mostly spared the problem: June days can be cold enough for a Scandinavian knitted sweater. Flinty northern Protestants regard buying an air-conditioner for the year’s few scorchers as an expensive environmental sin.

    These days, climate change is putting such attitudes to the test. Europe is expecting a broiling summer, in part thanks to the El Niño weather event. As it is, heat contributes to around 175,000 deaths a year on the continent, the UN reckons. Yet Europeans who think first-world lifestyles are largely to blame for global warming may feel pangs of carbon guilt about equipping their houses with air-conditioning, or using it if they have it. They needn’t. The impressive build-out of renewable energy in Europe’s hottest places means that judiciously dialling down the temperature will not do much to melt the glaciers.

    Take Spain, where solar capacity has grown nearly tenfold in the past decade. Readers sweating it out in Seville can head to app.electricitymaps.com to reassure themselves: on June 10th a kilowatt-hour of Spanish electricity produced just 86 grams of CO2 equivalent. In the American state of Georgia the figure was 442. On a sunny summer day at noon, only about 10% of Spain’s electricity comes from fossil fuels; around half comes from solar. Portugal does just as well, and France better still, thanks to its dozens of nuclear reactors. Italy is a laggard, getting 30-40%of its electricity from gas. But its 224g of CO2 per kilowatt-hour is positively verdant next to much of America.

    Not all of Europe can congratulate itself. Poland remains heavily reliant on coal, making its electricity mix about as bad as America’s. Germany’s rash decision in 2011 to eliminate nuclear power left it dependent on coal and gas, producing three times as much CO2 per watt-hour as Spain. Britain, depending on the weather, falls between Italy and Iberia. There are also unexpected bright spots like Albania, which sometimes gets 100% of its electricity from hydroelectric dams. Latvia is the greenest of the Baltics, thanks to more solar power than you might expect.

    Climate morality aside, many on the old continent fret about how to pay for cranking up the aircon dial. Americans are roughly a third richer than Europeans, and to add insult to injury their household electricity costs about half as much. Even middle-class Europeans worry about a sudden bump in energy prices owing to an unexpected geopolitical crisis—say, a war in Iran.

    Yet European homes are smaller than American ones, and use about a third as much electricity on average. Moreover, the solar boom means that power is not just greener but cheaper on hot, sunny afternoons. Setting the dishwasher to run overnight (prices are generally highest around 9pm) can free up room in one’s budget to cool off the home before going to bed. Smart meters make this sort of demand-shifting easier. And astute governments offer funding to make old houses energy-efficient, which can pay for itself (provided they do not make the mistake of Italy’s “Superbonus” programme: failing to check that the renovations take place).

    The war in Iran has driven up fossil-fuel prices, but in parts of Europe (notably France and Spain) electricity bills have risen much less. That reflects smart policies. After the war in Ukraine many Europeans not only throttled their use of Russian gas, but reduced reliance on it in general. The countries that decarbonised fastest have reaped the greatest benefits. Voters might consider taking the revolutionary step of rewarding politicians who made good decisions. They are probably best equipped to bring Europe the vast expansion of power capacity it needs for the future.

    A chilling realisation

    To be sure, Europe faces an energy crunch. It must electrify industries to compete with China and expand its data centres, dwarfed by America’s, lest the artificial-intelligence revolution render it a vassal. That means better-connected electricity markets; France should let its reactors compete with Spanish solar farms. It means accelerating the build-up of battery storage, upgrading grids, and adding vastly more renewable energy. In this equation a bit more domestic air-conditioning is little more than a rounding error.

    For green politicians buffeted in recent years by falling support, a call to chill out in front of the AC may sound like surrender. That, however, is a script that ought to be flipped. It is precisely because climate-conscious governments have prodded Europe to quit fossil fuels that the continent’s electricity is becoming less harmful to the planet—and less expensive. As the world warms, Europe is heating up faster than any other region. Europeans poor and rich will be using more air conditioning, both to make lives more pleasant and in extreme cases to save them. Those who prefer to tough out the summer are free to do so. But the goal should be to make cheap, clean air-conditioning available to everyone. ❞
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    India’s population will still continue to grow from its current tally of 1.45bn: it takes time for fewer births to translate into fewer people overall. But the number of births is already down by a fifth from its peak in 2001. In Tamil Nadu 1,200 schools were closed last year for a lack of pupils to fill their classrooms. Those who do attend increasingly show up without any siblings. The government frets that India will get old before it gets rich—that the country is on a similar path to China, where the population has already peaked and is starting to fall. Some politicians are offering cash to encourage Indians to procreate. India’s demographic transition is the most striking example of a global trend. For it is no longer just wealthy places where families have few, or no, kids. Over two-thirds of all countries are now below the replacement rate. Middle-income ones like Brazil, Iran, Thailand and Turkey have been well below it for years. Poorer countries are steadily joining their ranks. Sri Lanka has a TFR of just 1.3; Tunisia’s is 1.6. Morocco has fallen below replacement rate. Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, may be close to that point. In many places birth rates are plunging despite marriage remaining near-universal and even though few women have formal jobs.

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/06/04/indias-surprise-baby-bust-is-a-warning-to-the-world

    pardon, nemám bez paywallu
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    R Hallam
    https://www.facebook.com/share/1Au28JyCiB/

    Four points on the "landmark" UK report on the elite's mass death project.

    1. If it is a "landmark" report which points to the destruction of the British economy, its way of life, and the very existence of the country at 4C, why does it get two small lines in the middle of the news section of the world's main "liberal" newspaper that sells the idea that facts are "sacred"? The point being the liberal elites exist to smooth the journey to mass death being prepared for us by the business elites.

    2. It's not the mean, stupid. What kills is the outlier. What we want to know is not that food production will go down by x% on average - we want to know that every 20 years an outlier probability is there will be destroyed crops two years running, leading to mass starvation of British people, from which they will not recover by the time the next outlier hits.

    3. The unit of analysis of the "UK" is also beyond stupid. What will happen in the UK does not depend upon what happens in the UK but in the whole world. When outliers happen in other areas - war, famine, social breakdown, the world economy will collapse and UK living standards will collapse. Meaning poor people will starve and revolutions will happen.

    4. The "climate" is not an event. So stopping pretending it is. It is not a matter of "if we get to 4C". It is a matter of if we get to 2C, feedbacks will send our kids to 3C and their kids to extinction at 4/5 and 6C. It's a ball rolling ever faster down the hill, not a bus stop.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Europe, epicenter of global warming, faces its own contradictions
    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2026/05/12/europe-epicenter-of-global-warming-faces-its-own-contradictions_6753360_23.html


    The war in the Middle East has highlighted Europe's double handicap. The EU is highly exposed not only to climate shocks but also to soaring energy prices; it imports 95% of its oil and nearly 90% of its gas. Renewable energy is making headway – providing 46% of electricity in 2024, compared to 28% from fossil fuels – but the real challenge now lies in the electrification of transportation, buildings and industry. This plan for the economy, which the Commission is set to unveil in June, could mark the start of this acceleration. Decarbonizing is no longer just a climate imperative: It is more than ever a matter of independence.

    Read more Subscribers only Will the war in Iran advance or hinder Europe's energy transition?
    Reducing emissions will not be enough; warming is already causing irreversible damage that will worsen. The EU must therefore take steps to better withstand shocks, but current climate adaptation policies are inadequate, according to the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change. These measures are reactive and fragmented, rather than preventive and systematic.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/05/09/iran-farms-thailand-food/

    A Thai rice farmer has decided that the rational response to the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is to leave 19 hectares of land empty. The Washington Post reports that Saithong Jamjai, 53, spent weeks calculating whether to plant again in central Thailand and reached the same answer each time: fuel, fertiliser, plastics and other inputs would cost at least $33,000, while the rice she expects to sell in August would bring in only $22,000. Her conclusion was blunt: “A confirmed loss”. So she is letting the land bake under the husks from last season.

    The mechanism carrying the war into Asian rice fields is urea, the nitrogen fertiliser that modern high-yield farming depends on. Iran’s destruction of gas infrastructure in the Gulf, combined with U.S. and Iranian efforts to choke the Strait of Hormuz, has blocked supplies of fuel and gas-linked fertiliser products from leaving the Middle East. According to Pranshi Goyal, senior analyst at CRU Group, 30 per cent of global urea supply has effectively been “wiped out”. Urea spot prices are up 40 per cent since February; weekly production in Iran has fallen from 182,000 to 63,000 metric tons, while Qatar and Bahrain have dropped to zero in the figures cited. China has restricted fertiliser exports to protect its own farmers, and Russia is seeing demand rise in a way that could strengthen its economy and aid its war in Ukraine.

    The Food and Agriculture Organization is warning that the shock is spreading through the global food system by calendar, not by geography alone. Speaking in Rome, FAO director general Dongyu Qu called the war “a disruption at the core of the global agrifood system”. FAO chief economist Maximo Torero said the worst effects are currently in Asia, where Thailand, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Australia are entering key sowing periods, but the crisis is “moving east to west and south to north”. Farmers are already skipping planting, reducing acreage, or cutting fertiliser use, which means lower yields later this year.

    The next pressure point is June, when India and Brazil, two of the world’s biggest agricultural producers, are expected to ramp up urea orders. If ships carrying urea are still not moving by then, Torero warns of “significant yield loss” across many countries, higher commodity prices, renewed inflation, and a hit to economic growth “very close to what happened in covid-19”. A likely super El Niño this year could add extreme heat and drought to the fertiliser shock, making the same planting decisions even riskier.

    Thailand’s official assurances are already colliding with shortages on the ground. The Commerce Ministry said in April that the country had 343,000 tons of urea, enough for the upcoming planting season. But the Post found fertiliser shops across Ayutthaya and Suphan Buri provinces out of urea for weeks. One wholesaler sent a truck to a marketplace used by large dealers and got nothing after four days. Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow says Thailand still has sufficient farming supplies, while also acknowledging that the country is competing against richer nations and has “not faced such a crisis before”. A Russian supply attempt is likely to fail because shipping disruptions mean the urea would take at least two months to arrive, too late for the current planting window.

    Thai farmers are being squeezed from both sides. Their costs are rising because fertiliser and fuel are scarce, while their expected income is falling because the Middle East, one of their major export markets, has effectively shut. The region accounted for 17 per cent of Thailand’s rice exports in 2025, with Iraq the largest single destination. Since the war began, rice shipments to the Gulf have stopped. Malaysia and the Philippines have absorbed some of the excess supply, but not enough, leaving a glut that keeps rice prices low just as input costs spike.

    The human consequences are already visible: farmers taking credit from local loan sharks, planting only part of their land, growing vegetables and fish for subsistence, considering day labour, and reporting anxiety, debt and depression. Pramote Charoensilp, president of the Thai Farmers and Agriculturists Association, says calls from villages now carry the same themes: debt, depression, desperation. His advice is painfully thin because the options are thin: “I ask them to try to keep going. Just to keep going”.

    Even a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would not immediately solve the problem. Goyal says cargo would still take one to two months to reach destinations and markets would need time to stabilise; the longer Middle Eastern production plants stay shut, the longer they will take to restart. “This problem builds in a nonlinear fashion”, she said. For farmers whose planting window is measured in days and weeks, a supply chain that recovers in months has already failed them.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    ‘We are talking about energy security for Europe’: Norway doubles down on oil and gas production | Norway | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/09/norway-oil-and-gas-production-shortages-middle-east-ukraine

    In case of any doubt about Norway’s commitment to maintain – and expand – its production of gas and oil offshore, the energy minister, Terje Aasland, has a pithy response: “We will develop, not dismantle, activity on our continental shelf.”

    This week, to the alarm of environmental campaigners, he announced that three gasfields off the country’s southern coast would reopen by the end of 2028 – nearly three decades after they closed – to meet a shortfall caused by the impact of the war in Ukraine and disruption to supplies from the Middle East.

    The decision will help keep gas and oil production at about the 2025 level – which has been stable for almost 20 years – and stay broadly the same for the rest of this decade. Norway has 97 offshore oilfields, three of which came on stream last year, and its Norwegian Offshore Directorate expects “100 and beyond” within the next two years, still producing at least the present level of 2m barrels of oil daily.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    AP

    Asian countries are burning more coal to keep power going as the war in the Middle East disrupts other fossil fuel supplies.

    https://x.com/i/status/2036344782222455282
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    US/Israel’s war on Iran is a disaster for environment

    War led to 5m tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in 2 weeks draining global carbon budget faster than 84 countries combined
    2.5m and 5.9m barrels of oil burned in attack on 4 oil storage facilities

    5m tonnes of CO2 emitted in just 14 days of US war on Iran, analysis finds | US-Israel war on Iran | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/21/middle-east-iran-conflict-environment-climate
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    opáčko 2022, oze v čr nechceme


    Energy crises must accelerate the fight against climate change
    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2026/03/21/energy-crises-must-accelerate-the-fight-against-climate-change_6751671_23.html

    Breaking free from dependence on fossil fuels is, beyond the climate benefits a crucial issue of national sovereignty and the only way to protect ourselves against geopolitical shocks, such as those caused by the war in the Middle East.

    The mistake would be to respond to this situation with broad subsidies for fossil fuels, as was done in 2022. At the time, the urgency justified massive price controls. Today, France no longer has the budgetary means, and Europe cannot afford to indefinitely subsidize its dependency.

    Every euro of public funding must be directed toward measures that structurally reduce fossil fuel consumption: thermal renovation of buildings, electrification of uses and support for low-carbon industrial sectors.

    Energy crises must accelerate the fight against climate change - JustPaste.it
    https://justpaste.it/i356c
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Will war in the Middle East accelerate the clean energy transition? | New Scientist
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2519862-will-war-in-the-middle-east-accelerate-the-clean-energy-transition/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: :))

    R Hallam
    https://www.facebook.com/share/16JmFNt4bU/

    Guardian fuckery continues.

    The mass death of billions is getting closer, but hey, "most people are unaware" says the ever innocent Guardian newspaper.

    Hmm... wonder why that might be?

    Maybe it's because its latest article on the biggest shit show in the history of humanity is nestled in the middle of other day's news - i.e., articles on reading being a good way to stop dementia, or an actor dying, and the Liverpool/Sunderland match.

    Maybe, just maybe, it's because the Guardian and the rest of the liberal media are so pathetically incapable of calling a spade a spade. What the fuck does "a hellish "hothouse" earth" actually mean? Let's look it up. Oh yes, in the appendix of Prof Tim Lenton's last report it says 2 billion deaths at 2C, coming along in the next 10 years or so. OH! okay. A bit more important than a cure for a disease, an actor's dying, and a football match.

    And last maybe just, really just maybe - if the Guardian really wanted to make people "aware" then well there are a hundred ways it could do it, but they would all involve risking the finances, status and privileges of the western liberal class - and well, that really would not do - at least not to save those brown and black people "over there" before "it" comes for us.

    Why do you think the Guardian supported liberal slave owners two hundred years ago?

    Some things never change.
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    British petroleum varuje ;)

    BP predicts higher oil and gas demand, suggesting world will not hit 2050 net zero target | BP | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/25/bp-oil-and-gas-clean-energy-ukraine-middle-east-tariffs
    Poptávka po ropě a plynu roste. Klimatické cíle jsou v ohrožení, varuje BP - Novinky
    https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/ekonomika-poptavka-po-rope-a-plynu-roste-klimaticke-cile-jsou-v-ohrozeni-varuje-bp-40540756

    Evropský cíl dosáhnout nulových emisí do roku 2050 je v ohrožení. Nejistota vyvolaná válkami a obchodními konflikty tlačí státy zpět k ropě a plynu, varuje britská energetická společnost BP. Důvodem jsou nejen konflikty na Ukrajině a Blízkém východě, ale také otřesy na světových trzích způsobené celní politikou amerického prezidenta Donalda Trumpa.

    Ve své nejnovější prognóze BP zdůrazňuje zpomalení přechodu na čistou energii, napsal britský list The Guardian. Konec využívání fosilních paliv je jedním z kroků k dosažení klimatické neutrality do roku 2050, na které se dohodly státy Evropské unie. Za 25 let tak mohou vypouštět jen tolik emisí, kolik planeta zvládne pohltit.

    Pozorně sledovaná výroční zpráva britského energetického kolosu nyní odhaduje, že světová spotřeba ropy by měla v roce 2050 dosáhnout 83 milionů barelů denně. To je zhruba o osm procent víc oproti předchozímu odhadu 77 milionů. V současné době se denní globální spotřeba ropy se pohybuje kolem 100 milionů barelů

    AI summary:
    BP is currently scaling back its green initiatives and pivoting back towards oil and gas production, having abandoned aggressive climate targets set in 2020, despite a recent announcement of its new strategy in March 2025 aiming to "reimagine energy for people and our planet". However, this new plan involves increased oil and gas output and has been met with criticism from climate activists and analysts who believe it undermines true decarbonization efforts.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Related

    Dams around the world hold so much water they've shifted Earth's poles, new research shows | Live Science
    https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/dams-around-the-world-hold-so-much-water-theyve-shifted-earths-poles-new-research-shows

    Scientists found that large dams hold so much water they redistribute mass around the globe, shifting the position of Earth's crust relative to the mantle, the planet's middle layer.

    Earth's mantle is gooey, and the crust forms a solid shell that can slide around on top of it. Weight on the crust that causes it to shift relative to the mantle also shifts the location of Earth's poles, the researchers said.
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    The SSP4 Conspiracy: How an Elite-Driven World of Inequality Became the Chosen Pathway
    While much of the academic and policy discussion has revolved around SSP1 (sustainability) and SSP2 (middle of the road), SSP4 has received disproportionately little attention in both research literature and official climate discussions. Despite its relative obscurity, SSP4 outlines one of the most plausible pathways to high climate mitigation — on par with SSP1 — while simultaneously envisioning an era of increasing inequality.

    The accelerating embrace of SSP4 — intentional or otherwise — reflects a world where elites secure their future in fortress enclaves while the majority grapple with worsening inequality, climate disruption, and eroding democratic norms. Behind the veneer of occasional sustainability pledges lies a growing apparatus of private security, AI-driven surveillance, and monopolized access to critical resources, all guarded by oligarchic governance structures. In this scenario, climate action is no longer a collective human endeavor; it is an exclusive contract between the ultra-wealthy and the technologies they command.
    https://sustainablesage.medium.com/the-ssp4-conspiracy-how-an-elite-driven-world-of-inequality-became-the-chosen-pathway-94e8ea12e0b1
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Milton se bouri. Clovek by rek, ze je to spis vyhled na Middle east...

    x.com
    https://x.com/LopezLehman/status/1843451871882813948?t=a8FDNaRw7AaWu8Ty21hgAA&s=19
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    YMLADRIS:

    jeho situational awareness ohledne elektriny

    (43) Page 84: To most, this seems completely out of the question. Some are betting on Middle Eastern autocracies, who have been going around offering boundless power and giant clusters to get their rulers a seat at the AGI-table.

    But it’s totally possible to do this in the United States: we have abundant natural gas.

    (44) Page 85: We’re going to drive the AGI datacenters to the Middle East, under the thumb of brutal, capricious autocrats. I’d prefer clean energy too—but this is simply too important for US national security. We will need a new level of determination to make this happen. The power constraint can, must, and will be solved.

    The clusters can be built in the US, and we have to get our act together to make sure it happens in the US. American national security must come first, before the allure of free-flowing Middle Eastern cash, arcane regulation, or even, yes, admirable climate commitments. We face a real system competition— can the requisite industrial mobilization only be done in “topdown” autocracies? If American business is unshackled, America can build like none other (at least in red states). Being willing to use natural gas, or at the very least a broad-based deregulatory agenda—NEPA exemptions, fixing FERC and transmission permitting at the federal level, overriding utility regulation, using federal authorities to unlock land and rights of way—is a national security priority.

    ale dal si mysli ze to ukradne CIna (US vlada nebude schopna rychle z toho udelat Manhattan project) a konci uvahou o svete kde se prejde od AGI k ASI behem roku.. (to uz asi bude jedno, zda v americe nebo v cine)

    (89) Conclusion: And so by 27/28, the endgame will be on. By 28/29 the intelligence explosion will be underway; by 2030, we will have summoned superintelligence, in all its power and might.

    For those of us who get the call to come along for the ride, it’ll be . . . stressful. But it will be our duty to serve the free world—and all of humanity. If we make it through and get to look back on those years, it will be the most important thing we ever did. And while whatever secure facility they find probably won’t have the pleasantries of today’s ridiculouslyovercomped-AI-researcher-lifestyle, it won’t be so bad. SF already feels like a peculiar AI-researcher-college-town; probably this won’t be so different. It’ll be the same weirdly-small circle sweating the scaling curves during the day and hanging out over the weekend, kibitzing over AGI and the lab-politics-of-the-day.

    Except, well—the stakes will be all too real.

    See you in the desert, friends.

    pardon za mirne/vetsi OT, ale ty grafy jak vzrusta teplota oceanu jsou porad dokola

    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    James Hansen, asi není třeba představovat, dnes zveřejnil, společně s 2 spoluautory, článek.
    Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations
    In this article, climate scientists James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, and Makiko Sato discuss the acceleration of global warming. They note that global temperature continues to rise, reaching 1.56°C above pre-industrial levels as of April 2024. The authors attribute this acceleration to the decline in human-made aerosols, particularly from the shipping industry, which previously had a cooling effect on the Earth.

    The reduction in aerosols, combined with the strong warming trend at middle latitudes and the switch from La Nina to El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, has led to a significant temperature jump in 2023-24. The authors emphasize the importance of accurately evaluating the impact of human-made aerosols on the climate, as it has implications for understanding climate sensitivity.

    They call for further research and modeling to better understand the complex interactions between aerosols, clouds, and the Earth's climate system. The authors also stress the need for continued monitoring of the Earth's radiation balance to improve our understanding of the factors driving global warming acceleration.
    Link
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Germany is a case study — perhaps the case study — of a Western middle power which made a strategic bet on a full embrace of interdependence and globalization in the late 20th century: it outsourced its security to the U.S., its export-led growth to China, and its energy needs to Russia. It is now finding itself excruciatingly vulnerable in an early 21st century characterized by great power competition and an increasing weaponization of interdependence by allies and adversaries alike. The war in Ukraine, which touches on almost every one of Germany’s bilateral, regional, and global interests, only accentuates its exposure. That this horrific conflict is taking place in the region that was part of the “Bloodlands” (the term coined by Yale historian Timothy Snyder), where Hitler and (to a lesser degree) Stalin murdered tens of millions of people is lost on few of my fellow citizens.

    For much of the three decades after German reunification in 1990, Berlin saw Moscow (as well as Beijing) as a reliable strategic partner in a two-way bargain: Germany would import cheap energy, and export good governance in much the way that Eastern Europe had been transformed through entry into NATO and the EU. Ultimately, German policymakers hoped, this would transform not only these countries’ economies but also their political systems. And they believed — in an attempt to reconfigure West Germany’s Cold War Ostpolitik for a united Germany in the middle of Europe — that NATO and the European Union could and should be encompassed in a pan-European security architecture that included Russia.

    The Kremlin, for its part, saw Germany as a friend, a partner, and as a strategic bridgehead into Europe — not least because it was importing roughly a third of its oil and gas from Russia. What the Germans called their “modernization partnership” with Moscow made for excellent business for a while; but in every other way, it proved to be a failure. Economic integration turned out to be strictly downstream, while many German businesses got burned by corruption and organized crime; political reform remained elusive.

    Putin’s war and European energy security: A German perspective on decoupling from Russian fossil fuels | Brookings
    https://www.brookings.edu/articles/putins-war-and-european-energy-security-a-german-perspective-on-decoupling-from-russian-fossil-fuels/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Risotto crisis: the fight to save Italy’s beloved dish from extinction | Rice | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/29/risotto-crisis-the-fight-to-save-italys-beloved-dish-from-extinction-aoe


    In 2022, the worst drought in 200 years hit the Po, Italy’s longest river. The waterway forms the lifeblood of a complex web of canals built between the Middle Ages and the 1800s, which serve as the paddy fields’ main source of irrigation. That year, Italy lost 26,000 hectares (64,000 acres) of rice fields, according to Ente Nazionale Risi, the national rice authority, and rice production dropped by more than 30%. Last year, the drought persisted and the crop from another 7,500 hectares of rice fields was lost.

    Today, rice farmers struggling to recover from the impact of the drought face an uncertain future. “The higher the temperatures, the more frequent and intense these extreme events will be,” says Marta Galvagno, a biometeorologist at the Environmental Protection Agency of Aosta Valley.

    Over the past two years, Ferraris, like other farmers in the area, has tried to diversify his crops to reduce the risks brought by the climate crisis. He has reduced the acreage dedicated to paddies and started to grow crops such as maize, that require less water.

    “The climate is changing and I am afraid there will be other droughts,” says Ferraris, whose farm lost about €150,000 [£129,000] in 2022. Rice remains his biggest crop, however. Recently, he has started monitoring snowfalls in the Alps and checking the water levels in Lake Maggiore every day. “It’s hard to sleep at night,” he says.

    Ferraris is particularly worried about the production of carnaroli classico, a refined rice variety. Thanks to its ability to resist high cooking temperatures and absorb flavours, carnaroli is considered the “king of risotto”, but it is also extremely delicate and vulnerable to changes in the climate.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Povedomi ekonomu nabira uvedomely trend

    ‘Something is not working’: Economists urge EU Commission to overhaul its models – Euractiv
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/something-is-not-working-economists-urge-eu-commission-to-overhaul-its-models/

    More than 200 economists called on the European Commission to overhaul the way it calculates its core economic forecasts and better integrate critical environmental factors into its baseline models in an open letter obtained exclusively by Euractiv on Thursday (15 February).
    ...
    At present, the Commission – and therefore the EU at large, the group of high-profile economists argued – still relies on models that are strictly informed by general-equilibrium principles that may fail to capture the impact of growing climate-related variables on countries’ economic performance, including increased headwinds of financial and economic instability.
    ...
    “I think there’s a growing realisation in the world of macroeconomics that something is not working,” he said.
    ...
    “We are in the middle of a climate crisis and need to act rather fast,” she said.

    Other independent experts contacted by Euractiv — none of whom were formerly aware of the letter — all supported the call for contemporary forecasting to include the lessons and principles of ecological economics.

    Doing this, they added, would improve models’ ability to accurately predict ‘standard’ economic metrics such as inflation and enhance their capacity to measure the environmental impact of government policies.

    “They don’t have the right input data [so they] will not get the right output data,” said Kristian Skånberg, an affiliated researcher at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI).

    “And as [environmental issues] are becoming increasingly important and there are repercussions from the climate and there are repercussions from shortages, [they] will affect inflation and … GDP,” he added.
    ...
    Heather Grabbe, a senior fellow at Bruegel think tank, noted that economic models “have long treated environmental impacts as externalities” and that the way they are constructed tends to create a bias against large-scale green investments.

    “Recent research on the macroeconomic impact of climate change and environmental degradation needs to be included in the models used by policymakers,” she said. “They need to include not only the costs of climate action but also the costs of inaction.”

    Stefan Sipka, head of the Sustainable Prosperity for Europe programme at the European Policy Centre (EPC) agreed that, when designing economic policies, leaders need to take into account the impact of climate change and other sustainability challenges.

    “I would say that our current approach to economics and related modelling is still based on old premises that don’t really take into consideration that we live in a world with limited resources,” he said.
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam