But what if we climate scientists got the monster wrong? Because it seems like the biggest danger is not just the worsening impacts of the climate crisis, but the effectiveness of the fossil fuel industry in stopping action. So while the vast majority of our efforts have been on the science of the earth system, and the possibility of energy transitions, we have been outpaced and outflanked at every step by an industry laser-focused on maintaining its grip as the words largest energy source.
In fact, things are so bad, that it is only in 2023 that scientists realised that Exxon (now ExxonMobil)’s own climate research was more accurate in its warming predictions than publicly funded university science! The fossil fuel companies were investing in their own in-house climate science in the 1970s and 1980s, only to abandon these programs when they were utterly convinced of the warming trajectory. The scientists involved in these programs often believed the evidence they produced would sway the companies to abandon fossil fuels and to invest heavily in alternative energy sources. That was a fundamental mistake in understanding of corporate culture.
This is a crucial point to understand: fossil fuel companies are not energy companies. They are fossil fuel companies. They are tied, by their history, capabilities and culture, to fossil fuels. Their employees, going way back, are petroleum geoengineers, petroleum economists and traders. They grew up in households and programs where fossil fuels were the name of the game, and their entire social capital and sense of self, sense of purpose in their work, comes from the heritage of supplying fossil fuels to the world.
Climate in 2023: escalation and backlash, by Julia K. Steinberghttps://www.climatica.lamarea.com/climate-2023-julia-k-steinberg/