PAN_SPRCHA: Ja tu problematiku zase nechci shazovat uplne, protoze je to major issue. Nicmene klimatickej breakdown spojenej s tim, ze presun k nizkouhlikovy ekonomice neprovedeme je mnohem vetsi issue.
Btw pokud se dobre kouakm, tak instalovana solarni kapacita v roce 2000 byla 0,8GW a minuly rok pres 800GW. To je tisicinasobny narust za 22 let. A cena za MWh za tu dobu klesla na desetinu. Aneb uspory z rozsahu a learning curve do tehle desivejch cisel trochu hazej vidle.

Installed solar energy capacity - Our World in Data
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/installed-solar-pv-capacity?yScale=log

TUHO: to je desitinásobek za deset let.....to je naprosto v pořádku. Ale studie mluví prakticky o tisícinásobku za 12 let

MAGUMI: No energii bude treba vyrobit a materialy vytezit. Neni zac :))

Executive summary – The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions – Analysis - IEA
https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary

PAN_SPRCHA: No zatim to vypada tak, ze cim vic miliard kusu poridis, tak tim levnejsi to bude.
Podle Our world in data - 1 MWh ze solaru v roce 2010 stala 378 dolaru. Pri instalovany kamapcite 50GW. O devet let pozdeji s instalovanou kapacitou 500 GW kolikrat narostla jeji cena? No klesla na petinu na 68 dolaru za MWh. Podobny i kdyz ne tak dramaticky pokles je videt u vetru. Ale i u bateriovych ulozist.

MAGUMI, NYRLEM: hoši hoši, než začnete rantovat na jakoukoliv studii, tak se aspoň obtěžujte přečíst ten stránkovej abstrakt.

Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity.
Roadmaps are developed and grid analyses are performed here for 145 countries to address these
problems. The roadmaps call for a 100% transition of all-purpose business-as-usual (BAU) energy to
wind-water-solar (WWS) energy, efficiency, and storage, ideally by 2035, but by no later than 2050, with
at least 80% by 2030. Grid stability analyses find that the countries, grouped into 24 regions, can exactly
match demand with 100% WWS supply and storage, from 2050–2052. Worldwide, WWS reduces end -use energy by 56.4%, private annual energy costs by 62.7% (from $17.8 to $6.6 trillion per year), and
social (private plus health plus climate) annual energy costs by 92.0% (from $83.2 to $6.6 trillion per
year) at a present-value cost of B$61.5 trillion. The mean payback times of the capital cost due to
energy- and social-cost savings are 5.5 and 0.8 years, respectively. WWS is estimated to create
28.4 million more long-term, full-time jobs than lost worldwide and may need only B0.17% and
B0.36% of world land for new footprint and spacing, respectively. Thus, WWS requires less energy,
costs less, and creates more jobs than BAU. Sensitivity test indicate the following. Increasing district
heating and cooling may reduce costs by allowing flexible loads to replace inflexible loads, thereby
replacing electricity storage and overgeneration with low-cost heat storage. A battery cost that is 50%
higher than in the base case increases mean overall energy costs by only 3.2 (0.03–14.5)%. Almost all
regions need fewer hours of load shifting than assumed in the base case, suggesting that actual load
shifting may be easier than assumed. Increasing the use of electricity for hydrogen fuel-cell-electric
vehicles instead of for battery-electric vehicles increases overall cost in most regions tested, due to the
greater efficiency of battery-electric vehicles, but decreases overall cost in some regions by improving
grid stability. Finally, shifting battery vehicle charging from day-night to mostly day charging reduces
cost in the regions tested; shifting to mostly night charging increases cost. Ninety-five percent of the
technologies needed to implement the plans proposed are already commercial

MAGUMI: Skoro všechny tyhle studie vezmou cenu jaké je teď za jeden kus...a pořídíme toho miliardu kusů. bez ohledu na to že v tu chvíli vytvoří převis poptávky nad nabídkou a raketový růst ceny všech komponent co k tomu patří.

JIMIQ: v roce 2035, o kterem se bavi jako o cili ta studie, tu nejsou nove jaderky, je tu temer odepsane uhli a podle momentalnich kalkulaci entso-e je tu taky vic nez 1000 hodin nedodavky, i kdyz zapocteme importy. Ono totiz, svete div se, se nikomu nevyplacelo investovat do obnovy zarizeni kvuli podpore OZE a energiewende a vsem v zime chybi klasicke zdroje, nejenom Cechum..

Řek bych, že hodně důležitá je taky lokalizace zdrojů. Tedy netahat vyprodukovanou elektřinu stovky kiláků.
Příklad: Pokud mám lampu veřejného osvětlení, která má vlastní solár/turbínu, tak je to OK, pokud je napájená solárem, kterej je 100 km daleko, tak špatný.

MAKROUSEK: Zemi úspěšně zastavujeme posledních pár tisíc let, ale najednou je to strašlivej problém, náhodou zrovna ve chvíli, kdy hrozí, že by sme to zastavěli něčím, co se ti nelíbí...

Mozna na case do toho trochu vic slapnout

Mark Jacobson and his colleagues at Stanford University have published a new study in the journal Energy & Environmental Science that claims 145 of the world’s nations could switch to 100% renewable energy in a few years using renewable energy technologies available today. They recommend the world make the switchover by 2035, but in no event later than 2050. Their goal is to have 80% operating on renewable energy by 2030.
...
The cost of making the changeover to 100% renewable energy would be a staggering $62 trillion. Wow! That is a ton of money, people. But here’s the thing. Jacobson and his team say the savings from switching the world to 100% renewable energy would be $11 trillion a year. In other words, the initial investment would be paid back in just 6 years! Many people have a hard time distinguishing between an investment and an expense. They tend to see that $62 trillion as an expense and ignore the payback.

Switching The World To Renewable Energy Will Cost $62 Trillion, But The Payback Would Take Just 6 Years - CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/09/06/switching-the-world-to-renewable-energy-will-cost-62-trillion-but-the-payback-would-take-just-6-years/