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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Alexander Ač, Ph.D.
    30 min ·
    Keď som pred viac ako 10 rokmi diskutoval s kolegom lesníkom situáciu so smrekmi v našich zemepisných šírkach, tvrdil som, že v krátkom čase (v nadchádzajúcich desaťročiach) to má väčšina smrekov spočítané.
    Nepochodil som. Jeden z argumentov bol, že smreky majú vysokú genofondovú variabilitu a (preto aj) pomerne vysokú prispôsobivosť na lokálne klimatické podmienky. Dúfam, že teraz by som už pochodil...
    Fotka zachytáva uschnuté smreky v Národnom parku Harz v Nemecku, ktoré usychajú následkom vysokých teplôt, sucha, a lykožrúta. Ďalší vplyv, ktorý vo zvýšenej miere poškodzuje (nielen monokultúrne) lesy sú rozsiahle veterné kalamity.

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    2020 Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6

    Among Hart’s arguments, the self-destruction hypothesis especially needs to be rediscussed at a deeper level. Self-destruction following environmental degradation is becoming more and more an alarming possibility. While violent events, such as global war or natural catastrophic events, are of immediate concern to everyone, a relatively slow consumption of the planetary resources may be not perceived as strongly as a mortal danger for the human civilisation. Modern societies are in fact driven by Economy, and, without giving here a well detailed definition of “economical society”, we may agree that such a kind of society privileges the interest of its components with less or no concern for the whole ecosystem that hosts them (for more details see29 for a review on Ecological Economics and its criticisms to mainstream Economics). Clear examples of the consequences of this type of societies are the international agreements about Climate Change. The Paris climate agreement30,31 is in fact, just the last example of a weak agreement due to its strong subordination to the economic interests of the single individual countries. In contraposition to this type of society we may have to redefine a different model of society, a “cultural society”, that in some way privileges the interest of the ecosystem above the individual interest of its components, but eventually in accordance with the overall communal interest. This consideration suggests a statistical explanation of Fermi paradox: even if intelligent life forms were very common (in agreement with the mediocrity principle in one of its version32: “there is nothing special about the solar system and the planet Earth”) only very few civilisations would be able to reach a sufficient technological level so as to spread in their own solar system before collapsing due to resource consumption.

    We are aware that several objections can be raised against this argument and we discuss below the one that we believe to be the most important. The main objection is that we do not know anything about extraterrestrial life. Consequently, we do not know the role that a hypothetical intelligence plays in the ecosystem of the planet. For example not necessarily the planet needs trees (or the equivalent of trees) for its ecosystem. Furthermore the intelligent form of life could be itself the analogous of our trees, so avoiding the problem of the “deforestation” (or its analogous). But if we assume that we are not an exception (mediocrity principle) then independently of the structure of the alien ecosystem, the intelligent life form would exploit every kind of resources, from rocks to organic resources (animal/vegetal/etc), evolving towards a critical situation. Even if we are at the beginning of the extrasolar planetology, we have strong indications that Earth-like planets have the volume magnitude of the order of our planet. In other words, the resources that alien civilisations have at their disposal are, as order of magnitude, the same for all of them, including ourselves. Furthermore the mean time to reach the Dyson limit as derived in Eq. 6 depends only on the ratio between final and initial value of T and therefore would be independent of the size of the planet, if we assume as a proxy for T energy consumption (which scales with the size of the planet), producing a rather general result which can be extended to other civilisations. Along this line of thinking, if we are an exception in the Universe we have a high probability to collapse or become extinct, while if we assume the mediocrity principle we are led to conclude that very few civilisations are able to reach a sufficient technological level so as to spread in their own solar system before the consumption of their planet’s resources triggers a catastrophic population collapse. The mediocrity principle has been questioned (see for example Kukla33 for a critical discussion about it) but on the other hand the idea that the humankind is in some way “special” in the universe has historically been challenged several times. Starting with the idea of the Earth at the centre of the universe (geocentrism), then of the solar system as centre of the universe (Heliocentrism) and finally our galaxy as centre of the universe. All these beliefs have been denied by the facts. Our discussion, being focused on the resource consumption, shows that whether we assume the mediocrity principle or our “uniqueness” as an intelligent species in the universe, the conclusion does not change. Giving a very broad meaning to the concept of cultural civilisation as a civilisation not strongly ruled by economy, we suggest for avoiding collapse34 that only civilisations capable of such a switch from an economical society to a sort of “cultural” society in a timely manner, may survive. This discussion leads us to the conclusion that, even assuming the mediocrity principle, the answer to “Where is everybody?” could be a lugubrious “(almost) everyone is dead
    YEETKA
    YEETKA --- ---
    TUHO:
    o téhle závislosti se na úrovni eu parlamentu diskutovalo už od prvních zpráv o možném šíření covidu..
    na Číně jsme závislí prakticky ve všem.. nightmare
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    pomahat a chranit klimaticky kolaps

    Libich se proto snažil vytipovat několik míst, kde by zhruba tři stovky účastníků mohly rozbalit své stany. V té době se o akce ve Staňkovicích začali zajímat policisté. Na dvojici mužů v uniformách narazil na dvoře obecního úřadu místostarosta Zdeněk Kutřín (Občané pro Staňkovice).

    „Ptali se, jestli budeme něco pořádat. S Klimakempem jsem si to ale tehdy ještě nespojil, to až později. Nevěděl jsem, že to starosta řeší,“ upřesnil přísedící.

    Policejní bojkot ekologické akce? Staňkovice kvůli ‚nežádoucím osobám‘‎ odmítly hostit Klimakemp | iROZHLAS - spolehlivé zprávy
    https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/klimakemp-policie-stankovice-limity-akce_2008170600_kno
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Peatlands cover just a few percent of the global land area but they store almost one-quarter of all soil carbon and so play a crucial role in regulating the climate. My colleagues and I have just produced the most accurate map yet of the world’s peatlands – their depth, and how much greenhouse gas they have stored. We found that global warming will soon mean that these peatlands start emitting more carbon than they store.

    We mapped the world's frozen peatlands – what we found was very worrying
    https://theconversation.com/...ed-the-worlds-frozen-peatlands-what-we-found-was-very-worrying-144235
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Almost 40 percent of the crops across the state of Iowa have been severely hit by a violent, hurricane-force derecho on Monday, Aug 10th. About 2 million customers were without power. The path of derecho across the Midwest was nearly 770 miles (1200 km) long and lasted around 14 hours across several states. Several fatalities were also reported by falling trees.

    Destructive hurricane-force derecho hit Midwest, US - Iowa damage size of nearly 70% of Ireland
    https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/derecho-midwest-united-states-mk
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TUHO: anebo muzes prejit na regenerativni produkci obilovin [ TADEAS @ Klimaticka zmena // OK, doomer ] a pak neklesa vynos timhle brutalnim zpusobem, protoze svete div se, funkcni ekosystem si dusik poskytuje sam.

    pak je tu do budoucna varianta vyrabet amoniak v reverznich palivovejch clancich:

    Ammonia—a renewable fuel made from sun, air, and water—could power the globe without carbon | Science | AAAS
    https://www.sciencemag.org/...renewable-fuel-made-sun-air-and-water-could-power-globe-without-carbon

    az pak poresime levnej/renewable vodik https://phys.org/news/2020-07-harvesting-hydrogen-nanogardens.amp muzem jit cestou syntetickejch bilkovin (single cell protein) a vyprdnout se na degradaci ekosystemu .) TADEAS TADEAS
    PAD
    PAD --- ---
    České zelené švejkování | Hospodářské noviny (iHNed.cz)
    https://ekonom.cz/c1-66801610-ceske-zelene-svejkovani
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    PETER_PAN: Zajimavy, dik!
    PETER_PAN
    PETER_PAN --- ---
    TUHO: Rozjet vyrobu dusicnanu amonneho prakticky ze vzduchu (viz. zde: [ PETER_PAN @ 3. světová válka aneb kam náš svět směřuje? Status: 2020 ] ) je otazka jednotek mesicu - kdyz to bude problem narodni/potravinove bezpecnosti.

    Dusik i kyslik si navic muzeme generovat nejen frakcni destilaci, ale i membranovou separaci (skalovatelne od jednotek litru za minutu az po tisice).

    Amoniak se v evrope pokud vim stale vyrabi.

    Oxidace amoniaku musi jit rozjet v nejakem "valecnem" rezimu v jednotkach mesicu. Jak mas oxid dusičitý, tak ten s peroxidem vodiku da kyselinu dusicnou. Ta se neutralizuje dalsim molarnim ekvivalentem amoniaku a je pak ochladit a krystalizovat. Pak se do toho prida vapenec/dolomit a je hotovo. Bez reziduji, necistot, tezkych kovu a toho vseho co bylo v hnojivejch v 70. letech za komancu.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Lehce sice ot, ale myslim, ze stejne stoji za precteni ...


    Potravinová produkce podle něj může být ohrožena i u nás: „Zhruba 60 procent výnosu u obilovin je dáno minerálním hnojením, zvláště dusíkem. Když toto hnojení přerušíte, máte o 60 procent výnosu méně. Takže jen přerušení dodávky hnojiv se rovná hladomor ze dne na den.“
    „A to se může velmi snadno stát. Když dojde k promoření nějakého velkého provozu v továrně, tak vznikne nedostatek hnojiv. Spousta továren je v Číně, takže jsme na ní závislí. Proto by Evropská unie měl přehodnotit politiku přesouvání výrob do Číny,“ nabádá Hejcman.

    Stačí, když továrny přestanou dodávat hnojiva, a máme v Česku hladomor ze dne na den, varuje expert | Plus
    https://plus.rozhlas.cz/...varny-prestanou-dodavat-hnojiva-a-mame-v-cesku-hladomor-ze-dne-na-8269305
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    PETER_PAN: no, mě ani nejde o to jestli je to 20,25,nebo 30%. Mě jde o to, že to zakládá na dohadech. Odhaduju, že tohle ubere tolik, tohle by mohlo ubrat tolik a vyjde mi tohle. Oproti tomu postavím reálně změřená čísla a opět zas dostanu nějaké odhad a dojem.
    PETER_PAN
    PETER_PAN --- ---
    LINKOS: Hele v te zime je to proste min nez tech 25% co v leta. Verim ze budou existovat oblasti se specifickou distribuci oblacnosti (nizka, stredni, vysoka) a bude to relativne OK.
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    XCHAOS: obtěžoval ses otevřít ten odkaz kde byli REÁLNÉ výkony? Ne jakože kdyby svítilo, jakože kdyby to, a kdyby to...
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    LINKOS: Právě, že vím: max. výkon bude skutečně poloviční, ale taky po zhruba poloviční dobu. Ovšem pouze za předpokladu jasných slunečních dní, který uprostřed zimy, hmm, nebývá zrovna moc často splněn.

    Suma sumárum: fotovoltaika je cool, ale ne v zimě. Uvažovat se dá o věcech, jako sezónní průmysl, který by vyráběl jen v létě, aby se přebytky elektrické energie využily. Já si umím představit _hodně_ jinou civilizaci, než je ta dnešní, to si nemysli. Ale problém je prostě topná sezóna. Pokud nechceme jaderné elektrárny, potřebuje místo nich sezóní úložiště...
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    LINKOS: tady to [ FLEXXO @ Klimaticka zmena // OK, doomer ] trochu rozebiral a ja jsem na to odpovedel, ze podle realnejch dat z nejakejch dvou fve (nekolik MW) v jiznich cech je ta produkce listopad-leden cca na desetine, pripadne muzu dosehnat tabulku za poslednich cca 10 let, ten tvuj priklad je z nejaky simulace.
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    XCHAOS: tak když ani nevíš kolik to dá, jak můžeš dělat nějaký závěry
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The Climate & Ecological Emergency Bill | Extinction Rebellion UK
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPhAwYV0vM4
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    LINKOS: takhle, o nutnosti zastavení (letního) exportu elektřiny z uhlí se nebudu hádat. Ale vzhledem k volnému trhu s elektřinou v EU je to těžké. Polostátnímu ČEZu mohla vláda snad něco nařídit, ale odprodaným elektrárnám těžko. Leda snad zdražit povolenky na těžbu uhlí...

    Fotovoltaika v zimě ale rozhodně nevystačí, bohužel. Stačí se podívat na jakékoliv statistiky, ten rozdíl je dramatický.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    Arctic ice loss is worrying, but the giant stirring in the South could be even worse
    https://theconversation.com/...rrying-but-the-giant-stirring-in-the-south-could-be-even-worse-119822

    Almost all (around 93%) of the extra heat human activities have caused to accumulate on Earth since the Industrial Revolution lies within the ocean. And a large majority of this has been taken into the depths of the Southern Ocean. It is thought that this effect could delay the start of significant warming over much of Antarctica for a century or more.

    However, the Antarctic ice sheet has a weak underbelly. In some places the ice sheet sits on ground that is below sea level. This puts the ice sheet in direct contact with warm ocean waters that are very effective at melting ice and destabilising the ice sheet.

    Scientists have long been worried about the potential weakness of ice in West Antarctica because of its deep interface with the ocean. This concern was flagged in the first report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) way back in 1990, although it was also thought that substantial ice loss from Antarctica wouldn’t be seen this century. Since 1992 satellites have been monitoring the status of the Antarctic ice sheet and we now know that not only is ice loss already underway, it is also vanishing at an accelerating rate.

    The latest estimates indicate that 25% of the West Antarctic ice sheet is now unstable, and that Antarctic ice loss has increased five-fold over the past 25 years. These are remarkable numbers, bearing in mind that more than 4 metres of global sea-level rise are locked up in the West Antarctic alone.
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