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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it
    TADEAS
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    1 odpověď+1
    gaian bottleneck

    The Case for a Gaian Bottleneck: The Biology of Habitability - PubMed
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26789354/

    Here, we present an alternative Gaian bottleneck explanation: If life emerges on a planet, it only rarely evolves quickly enough to regulate greenhouse gases and albedo, thereby maintaining surface temperatures compatible with liquid water and habitability. Such a Gaian bottleneck suggests that (i) extinction is the cosmic default for most life that has ever emerged on the surfaces of wet rocky planets in the Universe and (ii) rocky planets need to be inhabited to remain habitable. In the Gaian bottleneck model, the maintenance of planetary habitability is a property more associated with an unusually rapid evolution of biological regulation of surface volatiles than with the luminosity and distance to the host star
    TADEAS
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    In Melbourne in 2010 I asked Schellnhuber: “you said in Copenhagen last year that @+4C the world would have a carrying capacity of just one billion people, but that this was something you hadn’t told Angela Merkel - why not?” He replied “some truths are too hard to tell”. https://twitter.com/SafeClimate/status/1292540222580772865?s=19

    ...

    He says he was misquoted "What I said is, if global warming is not in any way mitigated, and we go into a six or eight degrees warmer world, then our planet will probably only be able to support a billion people." https://t.co/QNl3AjzLYs


    ...

    The misquote Schellnhuber is correcting is that he was *advocating* for a reduction in population to one billion. When he spoke at the Four Degrees Conf in Melbourne in 2010 a man with a noose threatened him based on this. I was there — HS stood by his one billion @+4C estimate. https://twitter.com/SafeClimate/status/1292536188104933376?s=19
    GOJATLA
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    1 odpověď+4
    Tadeáš už to sem dával, ale opakování neuškodí...

    Blue Ocean Event
    https://www.scientistswarning.org/wiki/blue-ocean-event/

    What is a Blue Ocean Event (BOE)?
    One of the big questions about global heating is when — or if — the Arctic will be ice-free each summer. Scientists, such as Paul Beckwith, have recently come to refer to this as a blue ocean event (video). As Arctic sea ice gets thinner and thinner, a blue ocean event looks more imminent every year.

    What is the Arctic Death Spiral?
    The “Arctic Death Spiral” refers to a scientific chart generated from satellite data in order to visually depict the disappearance of Arctic ice since 1979. According to Skeptical Science, the first Death Spiral graphic is visually striking and clearly shows the loss of sea ice in all seasons. The circle (spiral) graph is stunning. It even provides a tidy disappearing point for when months start hitting zero. However, we cannot let this happen.

    If we lose the Arctic, we will also lose the jet stream (video) as we know it, the troposphere will expand (video) causing droughts and fires on many continents, food production will be threatened, and we will be well on the way to a Hothouse Earth state in a 4-7°C [1] world of monster storms and mass extinctions. Eminent and world renowned researcher, James Lovelock, has been saying for over a decade that 6 billion people could perish by the end of the century.


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    TADEAS:

    Climate Stabilization: Lessons from the Corona Crisis — PIK Research Portal
    https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/climate-stabilization-lessons-from-the-corona-crisis

    The researchers conclude by proposing an intergenerational Climate Corona Contract informed by reason and the principle of social justice. Former PIK director and co-author Hans Joachim Schellnhuber explains: “Younger generations would agree to protect the elderly from COVID-19 by adhering to social distancing measures, while the older generations would push for measures to keep global warming in line with the Paris Agreement.” Thus, the researchers’ outlook is cautiously optimistic: The outpouring of generosity and new forms of social interactions in the wake of the pandemic show great potentials for cooperation towards the much needed stabilization of the global climate.
    TADEAS
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    Schellnhuber über Klima-Aktivisten: „Viele junge Menschen werden depressiv zurückbleiben“ - Politik - Tagesspiegel Mobil
    https://m.tagesspiegel.de/...sten-viele-junge-menschen-werden-depressiv-zurueckbleiben/25945936.html

    “The young climate activists, without being asked, take on the responsibility for the future of those who have established themselves in society and who shy away from this responsibility. It hurts me to say that, but in this struggle a lot of young people get frustrated, burned out and even left depressed. "

    ...

    The corona crisis is a test case for how seriously politicians take the even bigger climate crisis. “I would say that at least we have already won the battle for climate awareness, the decision-makers in Berlin and Brussels have not rolled backwards. We must now act decisively forward . "

    ...

    “Too many in this society, especially too many decision-makers in politics and business, practice a blatant denial of responsibility because they believe that there is no alternative to the self-chosen materialistic madness. The climate catastrophe is not only a consequence, but also a reflection of our way of life. "
    TADEAS
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    +1
    Klimawandel:  Klimaforscher Schellnhuber - "Das war meine Lebensleistung" - MOZ.de
    https://www.moz.de/amp/nachrichten/brandenburg/artikel-ansicht/dg/0/1/1806922/

    However, Schellnhuber has not yet achieved his goal of limiting global warming to a maximum of two degrees through a noticeable reduction in the burning of fossil fuels. "Politicians find it difficult to achieve long-term goals; they always look for short-term solutions," the scientist says. However, there is only a period of about ten years for suitable measures. "Technically, physically and even economically, we can still reach the limit," says Schellnhuber. "If we lose another decade, the train has probably left."

    This is similar to the current Corona crisis, he says. "If you had reacted a week earlier, tens of thousands of people would have been saved." And countries like the USA, Russia, Great Britain and Brazil are hit hardest. "Because they didn't take science seriously."

    "If nothing happens, global warming will be four to five degrees by the end of this century," warns the scientist. "From a geological point of view, that would be a journey back in time 30 million years ago, with devastating weather extremes and sea level rise." His son can still experience this, says Schellnhuber. "It is therefore our damned duty of our generation to stabilize the climate so that future generations can have a good life."
    TADEAS
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    1 odpověď
    Corona and the climate: a comparison of two emergencies
    https://www.cambridge.org/...parison-of-two-emergencies/AE382384C616E5707064066B5065DD4E/core-reader

    To summarize our four-step analysis, the COVID-19 outbreak helps us to formulate a contingency plan for the climate emergency that necessitates the following core elements: lower the probability of damage through mitigation; lower damages through adaptation; increase intervention time through science; and decrease reaction time via a social contract and improved governance of the global commons

    ...

    For both the corona crisis and climate change, despite uncertainties, science helps us to establish a diagnosis, prognosis and therapy. Yet it remains to be seen whether societies and governments around the world are willing to take up the challenge that climate change poses as vigorously as they are addressing coronavirus. In fact, it is a matter of intergenerational social justice. The Climate Corona Contract recognizes that, in the face of risks to which nobody is immune, a renewed commitment and related institutional mechanisms to safeguard the right to life are all the more essential. Experience is a hard teacher, but the lessons from the corona crisis should be taken forward to protect our planet and preserve it for future generations. The outbreak has brought to light the potential to transform some of the foundations of our society. This can serve systemic change, not just in the short term. In a time when ‘social distancing’ is the new norm, ‘new ways of coming together’ (Yong, 2020) are being ingenuously found. This renewed appreciation of our shared destiny may well help us to think in the long term about the very value of the only planet we have and our role therein
    TADEAS
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    In response to the extensive area of open water in July (typically sea ice covered), sea surface temperatures are warmer than average across the entire #Arctic Circle...

    [Graphic and methods from @dmidk: https://t.co/s3iuSDTkjo] https://t.co/gOd6atH4F

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    +1
    SHEFIK
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    PAD: jasne, podmacenou krajinu u dalnice nechceme, ale treba pod svahem mezi lany poli s nejakymi stromy... nechal bych to na odbornikach

    z toho co sepsal/citoval tuho mi jen prislo, ze bysme skoro meli palit vic destnych pralesu, protoze stromy odparuji moc vody .)
    PAD
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    1 odpověď
    SHEFIK: Presne! Z pohledu simulaci to urcite nema takovy vliv jako mraky z Atlantiku, ale lokalne to ma vliv ohromny. My mame mokrad a potok za domem, maly cyklus vody vidim kazdy vecer a rano, kdy si musim vzit gumaky, libi se to spouste kytek (a bouzel i slimaku a komaru a klistat) a lokalne mame vzdy o 1-2 stupne nizsi teplotu, nez pouhych 500 metru dal do kopce. I behem tech nejvetsich such se tady drzela voda (byvala tu i obecni studna). Ten mokrad to tolik neodpari za predpokladu, ze je prave hezky prorostly vegetaci. Navic ten maly cyklus. Ale chapu, ze nejaky maly mokrad na Vysocine je pod rozlisovaci schopnost CHMI:)
    --
    Ja ten jeho vzkaz ale cetl trochu jinak: Nepropadejme panice a nevrhneme se, jako za komunismu, tu k masove stavbe morkadu, jinde k masove stavbe prehrad. Jednejme s rozmyslem.
    SHEFIK
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    1 odpověď+2
    TUHO: ad mokrady imho taky zavadejici. ma pravdu, ze to neni jediny nastroj, ktery bychom meli pouzivat na zadrzeni vody v krajine, ale rozhodne sve misto ma. mokrad neni otevrena plocha, muze mit ruzny formy a naopak umoznuje prave v maximalni mozny mire prusaku vody do pudy. zaroven se kolem nej tvori spousta zivota, jak v horni vrstve, porostly rostlinama, tak i v tech spodnich vrstvach, nebo v okoli, kam mokrad pousti vodu

    napr. http://zitkrajinou.cz/voda-a-sucho/mokrad-zadrzi-krajine-vic-vody-nez-umele-nadrze/

    Mokřady pozitivně ovlivňují vodní režim v krajině. Jsou přirozenou zásobárnou vody a jsou specifickým prostředím pro různé druhy rostlin a živočichů. Jde o jeden z největších fondů genetické biodiverzity. Patří mezi největší biotopy s nejvyšší biologickou aktivitou, v tom se řadí hned za deštné pralesy a korálové útesy. Mokřady také zadržují a postupně uvolňují mnohem více vody než například uměle vytvořené nádrže. Například 10 m² mokřadů zadrží až 9 000 litrů vody.
    SHEFIK
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    TUHO: to s temi stromy je dost mimo. les samozrejme zadrzuje vodu, celorocne. i kdyz v kontextu jednoho stromu u chaty s malou okolni vlahou ten strom musi neco pit. a tedy relativne "vysousi" okoli. nicmene i zpevnuje pudu korenovym systemem, aby se puda nesesouvala, takze tech duvodu u stromu u staveni bude vic. prekvapuje me ze takovej zavadejici blabol vypusti nekdo z chmi

    k zadrzovani vody lesem viz napr. http://www.silvarium.cz/...snictvi-a-drevarstvi/voda-a-krajina-bez-lesa-neni-vody-agrobase-zpravodaj

    ale staci googlit dal

    na horach by bez lesa byla sucha krajina, kdo ma chatu u lesa, nebo v horach, vi moc dobre z vlastni zkusenosti
    TADEAS
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    TADEAS: ad blueocean event

    Virtually ice free (<1 million sq. Km) before 2028 would surprise me and after 2035 would also surprise me. Somewhere in the middle of that gets my best guesstimate - hence 2032.

    This is all - Climatologically speaking - almost instantaneously.
    https://twitter.com/rgatess/status/1295788497551478785?s=19
    TADEAS
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    +1
    Democrats Drop Demand To End Fossil Fuel Subsidies From Party Platform
    https://huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5f3c2907c5b6d8a9173f0268/

    The Democratic National Committee this week quietly dropped language calling for an end to fossil fuel subsidies and tax breaks from its party platform, HuffPost has learned.

    On July 27, officials added an amendment to the Manager’s Mark, a ledger of party demands voted on as one omnibus package, stating: “Democrats support eliminating tax breaks and subsidies for fossil fuels, and will fight to defend and extend tax incentives for energy efficiency and clean energy.”

    The amendment was approved. But the statement ― which reflects pledges presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, each made on the campaign trail ― disappeared from the final draft of the party platform circulated Monday.

    In an emailed statement, a DNC spokesperson said the amendment was “incorrectly included in the Manager’s Mark” and taken out “after the error was discovered.”
    TADEAS
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    Climate Change is Still Accelerating (Even If We Aren’t Talking About It) | Novara Media
    https://novaramedia.com/...8/climate-change-is-still-accelerating-even-if-we-arent-talking-about-it/

    The singular tragedy of global warming is not having insufficient information to act, but rather being entirely aware of the situation – with often worst case predictions coming to pass – and deciding to still turn things up a level. When the ledger for this century’s ‘excess deaths’ is determined, those most responsible for unnecessary suffering won’t be dictators, generals and ideologues, but media tycoons and politicians who denied the reality of climate warming or failed to act.

    What the coronavirus crisis has usefully demonstrated, however, is that behavioural change at the level of the individual is inadequate to deal with global warming, rising sea levels and declining crop yields. This has been confirmed by the fact that despite the spectre of empty motorways and a spectacular downturn in consumption, lockdown had a negligible impact on rising global temperatures. What’s more, decisive efforts by states around the world – from lockdown measures to building new healthcare capacity, and even redirecting production and labour to socially necessary areas – have saved the lives of millions. It is hard to acknowledge this while defending the motto of neoliberalism over the last four decades – that the market always knows best, and the state should just get out of the way.

    In a crisis, everyone becomes a socialist. The problem is that even now, the powerful can afford to ignore the greatest crisis of them all
    TUHO
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    2 odpovědi+1
    PAD: Diky za pastnuti, zajiamvej rozhovor!

    Vypichnu par veci...
    a] Vetsina srazek prichazi z oceanu, maly vodni cyklus je naprosto zanedbatelnej
    b] Mokrady jsou do velky miry kravina, protoze otevrena plocha vody zvysuje vypar (kdyz je voda zasakla v pude, tak je chranena a dyl vydrzi)
    c] Stromy odebiraj vodu ze zeme, kterou odparujou

    Proč myslíte, že u starých chalup zpravidla stojí velikánský strom?
    Aby mohli lidé odpočívat ve stínu?
    Určitě taky. Ale uvědomte si, že neměli hromosvody a s vysokým stromem riskovali zásah blesku. Vysazovali je proto, že jim vysoušely základy. Tehdy nebyly žádné izolace a kořenový systém odebíral vodu v okolí a bránil vzlínání vlhkosti.
    To je také odpověď na otázku, jak stromy zadržují vodu. Nijak. Naopak ji spotřebovávají. Když tady v 80. letech kvůli oxidům síry kompletně odešly Krušné a Jizerské hory, dělaly se studie a dlouhodobá pozorování odtoků. To běží dodnes, kdy jsou Krušné a Jizerské hory znova zalesněné. Dřív byly ty kopce úplně holé, bez jediného stromu. Jaký mělo podle vás zalesnění vliv na průtok v tocích?
    Žádný.
    ...
    Jak bychom tedy měli vodu zadržet, když ne mokřady?
    Zpomalením odtoku a zvýšením infiltrační (zasakovací) schopnosti půdy. To znamená: meandrovat toky a odstraňovat meliorace, aby voda z krajiny odtékala pomaleji a měla čas se vsáknout. Aby neodfrnkla do první vodoteče a tou do Německa. Druhá věc je, snažit se na zemědělské a lesnické půdě hospodařit tak, aby se v maximální možné míře omezil výpar, zpomalil odtok a snížilo riziko eroze.
    To jsou klíčové prvky, které mají ještě jednu výhodu: čím víc zpomalím odtok z krajiny, tím víc rozložím špičku povodňové události. Množství odteklé vody bude stejné, ale víc se rozloží v čase, takže křivka se zploští.
    Takže opatření v krajině, o kterých všichni mluví a máloco si pod tím představí, mají efekt. Jsou to remízky, průlehy, zmenšování půdních bloků, zpestřování krajiny, aby to nebyly ohromné monokultury. Čím pestřejší bude, tím líp. Včetně drobných prvků, jako jsou mokřady.
    ...
    Jsou dvě možnosti, jak zvýšit akumulaci vody. S povrchovou je to relativně nejsnazší: nádrže, stavba přehrad. Nebo to můžeme zkoušet řízenou umělou infiltrací, tedy nechat vodu uměle zasáknout do podzemí a tam mít soustavu jímacích studní, odkud by se čerpala a dala použít pro zásobování lidí pitnou vodou. Tento systém funguje u Káraného, kde jsou v lesích velké zasakovací pásy, čerpá se tam voda z Jizery, nechá se zasáknout a o kus dál je řada jímacích objektů, kde se zase čerpá.
    Tento systém je úžasný, funkční, navíc dochází k částečnému vyčištění vody z Jizery průchodem písčitým prostředím. Problém je, že na to potřebujete mít vhodné hydrogeologické podmínky, tedy štěrky, písky a prostředí pro jímání vody. Takových území v Česku moc není.
    ...
    Šetřit vodou? Jen to ne. Celá infrastruktura je budována na předpokládané objemy, ale hlavně stoková a kanalizační síť byla budovaná na určitý objem splašků. Čím víc se šetří, tím hůř se jim tam teče a tím obtížnější je čištění v čistírně odpadních vod.
    TADEAS
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    Climate crisis: Extreme weather means UK faces worst wheat yields in 40 years, farmers’ union says | The Independent
    https://www.independent.co.uk/...te-crisis-extreme-weather-uk-temperature-heat-farmers-a9678656.html
    TADEAS
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    +6
    YMLADRIS:

    If we are to have a chance of staying below 1.5C of warming, our emissions need to immediately start reducing rapidly towards zero and then on to negative figures. That’s a fact. And since we don’t have all the technical solutions we need to achieve that, we have to work with what we have at hand today. And this has to include stopping doing certain things. That’s also a fact. However, it’s a fact that most people refuse to accept. Just the thought of being in a crisis that we cannot buy, build or invest our way out of seems to create some kind of collective mental short circuit.

    This mix of ignorance, denial and unawareness is at the very heart of the problem. As it is now, we can have as many meetings and climate conferences as we want. They will not lead to sufficient changes, because the willingness to act and the level of awareness needed are still nowhere in sight. The only way forward is for society to start treating the crisis like a crisis.

    We still have the future in our own hands. But time is rapidly slipping through our fingers. We can still avoid the worst consequences. But to do that, we have to face the climate emergency and change our ways. And that is the uncomfortable truth we cannot escape.
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