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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS:

    Jet stream: Is climate change causing more ‘blocking’ weather events? | Carbon Brief
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/jet-stream-is-climate-change-causing-more-blocking-weather-events

    “[Blocking] tends to be less persistent in the southern hemisphere as the westerly jets are stronger. Despite this, they do have some important impacts, such as over Australia, New Zealand and southern South America.”

    For example, blocking events were behind the record hot, dry weather that saw devastating bushfires during Australia’s 2019-20 summer, and a major drought in southeastern Brazil in 2014-15.

    ...

    Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking in CMIP5 and Future Changes in the Australia-New Zealand Sector
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL083264

    Climate models often do not simulate enough blocking events, though most research on this problem has focused on the Northern Hemisphere and less is known about the Southern Hemisphere. We survey 23 climate models and show that during winter some models simulate too many blocking events, while others simulate too few, whereas during summer, almost all models simulate too few events to the south of Australia. We also show that with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases we expect there to be less blocking, particularly to the south of Australia and over New Zealand during winter.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TADEAS: Tání Antarktidy a rozpad jejich jižního jet streamu není analogicky jako u nás?
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Množství kyslíku ve sladkovodních jezerech rychle klesá. Ohrožuje to vodní organismy i kvalitu pitné vody - Ekolist.cz
    https://ekolist.cz/cz/zpravodajstvi/zpravy/mnozstvi-kysliku-ve-sladkovodnich-jezerech-rychle-klesa.ohrozuje-to-vodni-organismy-i-kvalitu-pitne-vody

    Množství kyslíku ve sladkovodních jezerech mírného pásu po celém světě rychle klesá. Z velké části to způsobuje změna klimatu. Pokles kyslíku ve sladkovodních jezerech je výraznější než v oceánu a ohrožuje sladkovodní organismy i kvalitu pitné vody a ohrožuje existenci fauny a flory.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: to prijde hned jak prvni leto zamrzne evropa, nebal bych se
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHEFIK: co muze prijit jako prvni - chapu to tak, ze cca do 15 let roztaje na cast sezony sev. pol, to nejak razem zmeni atmosferickou dynamiku, pro nas to podle me bude znamenat nevypocitatelnost rocnich obdobi. jak to ovlivni ten AMOC nevim, ale zpomalovani toho AMOCu a jeho dusledku prichazej do hry az pozdeji
    ... proste druha pulka 21 stoleti, konvergence mnoha krizi, bude paradicka .)

    Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather | Nature Geoscience
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2234
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHEFIK: tak tu bilou plachtu zorganizuj prosimte, diky
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    tak ještě rozbor elektronickou tužkou. ten jíl, to bude zvětralina skalního podloží a v beskydech je flyš, to jsou pískovce, prachovce a jílovce. na jíl zvětrá jílovec, kterej v hloubce 4,0m p.t. bude mít charakter skalní horniny a namísto průlinové propustnosti, jako u zrnitých sedimentů, bude mít puklinovou propustnost. puklinová propustnost je obecně k zasakování nevhodná, protože do určítý hustoty puklin nemá odpovídající koeficient filtrace pro přívaly z pole. obávám se, požadovanej filtarční koef. by splnil hrubej štěrk bez výplně nebo slepenec. prostě no way
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    DZODZO: vsakování se dělá tak, že příval vody je potřeba někam pojmout a pak teprv mu umožnit vsak do horn. prostředí. takže tady by to obnášelo nějakou podzemní štěrkovou stěnu do hl. 4,0m pod terén o konkrétním objemu, který pokryje plošný splach z pole :-) protože pokud to nebude na příval kapacitně stačit, tak jsi nedosáhnul žádného výsledku
    ve středověku udělali val, aby jim to barák obteklo a pokud se jim přímo barák nezanesl pískem do úrovní oken, tak s tím byli spokojení
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    PALEONTOLOG: "A teprve pod ním se začíná voda vsakovat." - a nemohli by tam teda navrtat 4m odvodnovacie trubky pod ten jil kam by sa to zasakovalo?
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    DZODZO: 4 m jílu, opakuj si, 4 m jílu, 4 metry, to je 2x2
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    PALEONTOLOG: zbudovat tunku, luku alebo mokrad nie je ziadna valka, uz tu prebehlo hafo prikladov ako sa to da urobit a aky to ma pozitivny vplyv na krajinu, ale vsak nech si tam klidne zbuduju ten odtok, aby im ta voda rychlo odtiekla prec a potom sa budu cudovat, ze nemaju vodu v studni :)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: podle toho clanku je otepleni 4-7*C zpusobeny jen tim, ze led nebude odrazet slunecni paprsky... pokud je to tak, tak mitigace v podobe obrovsky bily plachty je to nejjednodussi co se da udelat, abysme zabranili nejvetsimu vymirani v historii lidstva .) Nepotrebujem ani geonengineering...
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: tak ja porad verim v kolektivni rozum a akceschopnost lidstva jako celku. Prostredky na zabraneni nejhorsimu mame, i kdyz nemusi bejt v souladu s dlouhodobou udrzitelnosti.

    Spis me zajma, co muze prijit jako prvni, driv nez se lidstvo mobilizuje
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Jsme zoufalí. Oteplí se o 4 stupně, z jihu nás čeká migrace, varují aktivisté - iDNES.cz
    https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/domaci/extinction-rebellion-alzbetko-a-veronika-holcnerova-aktiviste-zoufalstvi-migrace.A210531_101706_domaci_vov
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    DZODZO: to si to zasakování představuješ jak hurvínek válk
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHEFIK: asi GOJATLA: If we lose the Arctic, we will also lose the jet stream (video) as we know it, the troposphere will expand (video) causing droughts and fires on many continents, food production will be threatened, and we will be well on the way to a Hothouse Earth state in a 4-7°C [1] world of monster storms and mass extinctions. Eminent and world renowned researcher, James Lovelock, has been saying for over a decade that 6 billion people could perish by the end of the century.


    ...

    posledne jsem tu byl vyminuskovanej za to, ze jizni polokoule je z tohohle pohledu stabilnejsi, protoze to roztani na severi ma asi docela nevyzpytatelny nasledky. njn, perly svinim, misto abyste se chystali :))
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: mas nejaky summary implikaci? Naruseni golfskyho proudu, zamrzla evropa, stoupajici hladiny mori...

    Jsou to sice pravdepodobnostni dohady, ale bylo by fajn to videt nekde pohromade.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Zack Labe
    https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1399886692509573123?s=19

    Yikes! We are off to a record-breaking start to the sea ice melt season in the Laptev Sea (again) 🤪

    [This region is located in the Siberian #Arctic. Data from @NSIDC]

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Arctic heatwave ongoing. Temperatures are about +20°C (36°F) hotter than average for this time of year in Siberia.

    Very warm along the fringes of the Arctic sea ice. Melt season is off to a record breaking start in the Laptev Sea.

    https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1400000375386689536/photo/1
    https://t.co/yQ4NBA3GHy



    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Life after ethanol: are we prepared?
    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2853700898292464&id=2201724063490154

    Dr. Mike Bredeson
    Agroecologist- Ecdysis Foundation

    Most Midwestern farms depend on ethanol. Yet, many signs point toward a near future of fading ethanol demand. What will this mean for farm families and rural communities across the corn belt?
    It is time to take a close look at the future of the ethanol industry. If the situation is not addressed and solutions aren’t developed farmers could find themselves in a very dangerous farm crisis spurred by oversupply. Let’s start the conversation right now.

    How much corn we grow and what it is used for.

    In 2020, American farmers produced a staggering amount of corn – 14.2 billion bushels. If we threw every kernel into one pile it would tower over 4000 feet – a literal mountain of corn!

    What is all this grain used for? A small amount becomes food for humans. Quite a lot of corn is fed to cattle, chickens, and other livestock. However, the greatest portion (40%) of corn that we grow is fermented into ethanol, mixed with gasoline, and burned in cars.
    To help visualize the current importance of ethanol production to the American farmer let’s imagine all corn used for this purpose (36.8 million acres) planted in one field. The size of this field would be larger than the entire state of Iowa.

    How the corn ethanol industry became so large.

    The ethanol boom beginning in the mid-2000s stimulated a rural economy based on burning corn in vehicles. Rapid growth of the ethanol industry was a result of the push for US energy independence. At the time, war in the Middle East threatened global oil supplies.

    The Renewable Fuel Standards Act, and The Energy Independence and Security Act put into place by the G.W. Bush administration early in the Iraqi war paved the way for ethanol production as an alternative to fossil fuels. These new rules required oil refineries to purchase an increasing amount of ethanol every year between 2008 and 2022 to mix into gasoline. Corn farmers suddenly had a guaranteed market with predictable increases in the immediate future. As expected, corn and ethanol production increased rapidly to meet demand fixed by the US government.

    Factors pointing toward reduced ethanol demand.

    Until 2013 ethanol production kept pace with what was mandated in the fuel standards acts. However, since 2014 ethanol demand has fallen short and oil refineries have purchased far less than what was mandated.

    The Renewable Fuel Standards Act is set to expire in 2022, leaving the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to set annual refinery purchases of ethanol on a year-by-year basis. As demand has already undercut production goals set by the US government it is unlikely that the EPA will mandate oil refineries to purchase more ethanol. What is more, concerns over how corn production affects soil, air, and water quality casts further doubt on an ethanol-favorable standard set by the EPA.

    What is likely a greater threat to the future of ethanol is an unprecedented acceptance of electric vehicles. Many of the world’s largest car companies have electric models available and some, such as General Motors, have vowed to eliminate gasoline engine vehicles from their lineup by 2035, less than 15 years from now. By the same year, Californians will be unable to purchase new cars with gas engines.

    Vehicle companies are betting on a transformational shift in the automotive industry and the US government is backing this shift whole-heartedly. In the recently proposed infrastructure plan by the Biden administration more money is slated to be spent on electric vehicle infrastructure than on road and bridge repairs. As painful as it may be to recognize for corn producers, electric vehicles are the future of commuter transportation, and the shift is happening rapidly.

    Can new crops and new markets make up the difference?

    As ethanol demand fades and corn supply increases there will be a natural price correction where the cost of a bushel of corn falls. In response, one might recommend farmers simply switch to growing something different. However, we need to remember that corn for ethanol is grown on 36.8 million acres. What commodities are poised to make up for the massive difference?

    New industries, such as industrial hemp will undoubtedly replace corn on some acreage, but new commodities are slow to develop and normally supply a relatively small, niche market. A crop replacement will need to be used so widely that it rivals the historic every day use for ethanol (10% of gasoline use in nearly every car across America).

    Perhaps other food crops such as soybeans, wheat or oats will make up the Iowa-sized land area as we shift away from corn for ethanol. This scenario is unlikely for two reasons- 1) demand for existing commodities is already being met by farmers, and 2) substantial increases in their production would result in devaluation.

    We need solutions, soon.

    To prevent what could be a significant farm crisis from affecting our economy plans must be drawn to counter ethanol’s future. One suggestion is to replace cropland used for ethanol production with perennial grasslands for managed grazing or wildlife habitat. There are several reasons why this is an affordable, viable solution that is good for farmers.

    The federal government pays a mighty cost (more than $8 billion, annually) to help farmers afford crop insurance, protecting farms in case disaster strikes. In the current model, only about half of the government’s investment goes to helping farmers pay an insurance premium. The other half supports overhead costs of insurance providers. Eliminating the need to support crop insurance on 36.8 million acres frees up a substantial amount of money to be reallocated directly to farmers at a competitive rental price for converting annual cropland to perennial grasslands.

    As ethanol demand fades, producing commodities on fewer acres will prevent an oversupply, preserving and likely increasing the value of corn and other farm-grown goods. Environmental benefits of such a plan are too numerous to mention but include groundwater purification and recharge, carbon storage in soils, wildlife habitat, etc. These are all services freely provided by the environment, saving tax dollars in the long-term.

    The ethanol industry won’t disappear overnight, but with all signs pointing to a substantial reduction in ethanol demand we need to be proactive in developing plans to exit an agricultural industry dependent on ethanol and enter an agricultural age that will support farming communities. A plan to help landowners introduce grasslands might save the American farmer from facing a difficult future.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Meltwater pulse 1A refers to a period of rapid sea level increase after the last deglaciation. New research suggests that it was powered by melting ice from North America and Scandinavia, not Antarctica.
    “We hope that our study will help climate modelers and paleoscientists piece together the impact of this event, with clear parallels for understanding the impact of increasing melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet today,” said Pippa Whitehouse.

    An Ancient Meltwater Pulse Raised Sea Levels by 18 Meters - Eos
    https://fal.cn/3fOmU
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