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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."

    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
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    +2
    V zimě se svět popere o něco, co je neviditelné, ale zásadní a není toho dostatek. Jde o zemní plyn, píše Bloomberg — ČT24 — Česká televize
    https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/ekonomika/3376774-v-zime-se-svet-popere-o-neco-co-je-neviditelne-ale-zasadni-a-neni-toho-dostatek

    klidnější počasí omezilo produkci elektřiny z větrných turbín a stárnoucí evropské jaderné elektrárny se postupně odstavují z provozu nebo jsou náchylnější k výpadkům. To zvyšuje důležitost plynu. Není divu, že jeho ceny za poslední rok stouply o téměř pět set procent a obchodují se blízko rekordních hodnot.

    Tento prudký růst donutil některé výrobce hnojiv v Evropě omezit výrobu a očekává se, že další je budou následovat. Hrozí tak, že stoupnou náklady zemědělcům, což potenciálně zvýší ceny potravin. V Británii již vysoké ceny energií donutily několik dodavatelů ukončit činnost.

    Očekává se, že ceny zemního plynu dále porostou po celém světě i v případě, že chladné počasí na severní polokouli bude takové, jak je pro toto období běžné. Energetické firmy a politici se modlí za mírné teploty, protože na zvýšení dodávek je příliš pozdě.

    Výhled růstu energetických nákladů ve spojení s napjatou situací v dodavatelských řetězcích a cenami potravin na nejvyšší úrovni za deset let by mohly vyvolat u více centrálních bankéřů pochybnosti o tom, zda růst inflace je přechodný, jak nyní doufají. Obchodníci budou pečlivě rozebírat každou předpověď počasí zveřejněnou od nynějška až do prosince.

    Dovozci zkapalněného zemního plynu (LNG) v Asii nyní platí rekordní ceny pro toto roční období, aby si zajistili dodávky, a někteří se obracejí na „špinavější“ paliva, jako uhlí a topný olej, pro případ, že by dodávky nebyly dostatečné. To může ohrozit plány vlád na ambicióznější ekologické cíle, protože plyn při spalování vypouští přibližně o polovinu méně oxidu uhličitého než uhlí.

    TADEAS:
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +2
    ze serie apoka threadu, ala TADEAS ci TADEAS

    Thread by @JimBair62221006 on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1433829191405826052.html

    ...

    We have so, so many warnings from so many agencies, corporations & researchers that we simply can't afford to ignore them any longer.

    We begin with market intelligence analysis firms.

    Tridge a market intel firm operating in 40 countries, with clients including Deutsche Bank, FAO, the Singapore Food Agency, the Australian Dept of Agriculture & Water Services, Nestle & Unilever, recently issued the following stark warnings.

    "Due to extreme weather conditions, the agriculture supply chain is likely to experience continuous disruptions, leading to long-term price fluctuations in agricultural products across the world."

    "If this trend continues for the next few years, the global society will encounter the issue of “Survival,” unprecedented food shortage, & agflation”


    ...

    Peer reviewed research in turn points towards a long list of rapidly escalating, converging crises for food production, all exacerbated by climate change.

    One of the most off-cited changes to food systems arising from climate change involves shifting climatic zones, often cited specifically because it is incessantly & misleadingly used to argue that “We’ll be able to grow more food in northern regions!”

    In fact, adaptive crop migration has already been widespread, but “Expanding agriculture into new areas is extremely environmentally damaging, decreasing carbon storage, harming water quality, reducing wildlife habitat, and biodiversity”
    ...
    furthermore, our current climate change trajectory will lead us to a situation characterized by

    “more than a third of current global food production falling into conditions in which no food is produced today – that is, out of safe climatic space.”
    TADEAS
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    +2
    TADEAS, TADEAS:

    Na jihozápadě USA dochází voda. Přehrady jsou téměř prázdné — ČT24 — Česká televize
    https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/svet/3328430-v-kalifornii-dochazi-voda-prehrady-jsou-temer-prazdne#articlewithopenedgallery
    TADEAS
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    2 odpovědi+2
    v lidlu zdrazi veprovy


    This week’s update on the Western drought compared to one year ago, which ended up being the worst fire season on record. 53% of West now in extreme drought. 26% in exceptional. It’s alarming. https://t.co/qUbPHIkr1n






    TUHO:
    TADEAS:
    TADEAS
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    4 odpovědi
    TADEAS:

    Kai Heron
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1400799563292811267.html


    Brazil on drought alert, faces worst dry spell in 91 years | Successful Farming
    https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/update-2-brazil-on-drought-alert-faces-worst-dry-spell-in-91-years

    3 Big Things Today, June 2, 2021 | Successful Farming
    https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-june-2-2021

    The situation isn’t looking good. Already this year farmers from Canada to California have experienced droughts and the US’ soy growing states have been been hit hard. So guess what? The price of soy is rising.

    ...

    As the climate crisis escalates, it’s not hard to imagine droughts hitting Brazil and the US simultaneously, devastating corn and soy yields, and sending food prices spiralling upwards.

    Recall that the Arab Spring was in part initiated by rising food prices – by a crisis in labour's reproduction within the circuits of capital – to get a sense of where this can go.

    That’s one thread we can pull on. One series of tentacular relations. There are others. One is that the drought has reduced Brazil’s hydropower capacity to such an extent that the country is importing natural gas to cover the deficit. -- https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brazils-Worst-Drought-In-91-Years-Is-Good-News-For-LNG.amp.html

    That’s more carbon produced in transnational shipping and logistics, more GHGs burned, more global heating, more droughts, more food insecurity. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is trying to create a favourable regulative environment for the fossil fuel industry.

    Another thread is that this drought has been worsened by the very process that made Brazil one of the world’s largest producers of corn and soy in the first place: aggressive deforestation and the forceful removal of Indigenous peoples and wildlife.

    Rainforests *create* precipitation. Rainforest loss means less rain, means lower crop yields, means a crisis in labour’s reproduction, a crisis in profitability for capital, soaring food insecurity, potential social upheavals, and so on. Elliptical.
    TADEAS
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    Global food prices post biggest jump in decade
    https://amp.ft.com/content/8b5f4b4d-cbf8-4269-af2c-c94063197bbb

    Global food prices have surged by the biggest margin in a decade, as one closely watched index jumped 40 per cent in May, heightening fears that the inflation initially stoked by pandemic disruption was accelerating.

    ...

    The world’s consumer price inflation for food has already jumped 6.3 per cent in 2020, up from 4.6 per cent in 2019, according to the FAO as the pandemic played havoc with global supply chains, affecting the production and distribution of food. South America, with 21 per cent food price inflation, Africa and South Asia with 12 per cent and Oceania with 8 per cent were among the most affected regions.

    The latest jump in food commodity prices reflected China’s soaring appetite for grain and soyabeans is adding to upward pressure on prices, along with a severe drought in Brazil and growing demand for vegetable oil for biodiesel, said analysts.
    SHEFIK
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    TUHO: myslim ze hlubsi diskuze by byla zajmava, ale sem uz to nepatri :)
    TADEAS
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    TADEAS:

    Opinion | A 50-Year Farm Bill - The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05berry.html
    TADEAS
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    U.S.-Sponsored Big Agriculture Is Leading to Ecological Collapse
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/17/big-industrialized-agriculture-climate-change-earth-systems-ecological-collapse-policy/

    Industrial agriculture simplifies ecosystems, rendering us more vulnerable to threats. Transformative policies will be required to pull us back from the edge. As a start, the United States could set an example for the Global North with a 50-year farm bill.

    The bill would promote ecosystem diversification and increased resilience by reducing acreage of annual grain crops from 70 percent to 10 percent or less of all cropland while scaling up perennial crops to 80 percent of farmland. The remaining 10 percent would be allocated to other crops, including a diverse array of locally produced vegetables and fruits. Soil and water-conserving perennial varieties of rice, wheat, legumes, and other food-grain crops—which are now being developed—could serve as components of diverse, perennial, multispecies communities of food crops that replicate how nature functions. The bill would promote a transition to smaller, more diverse farm operations as agricultural diversification will work most effectively not on vast, uniform acreages but as mosaics made up of many modest-sized farms.

    ...

    As Candide stresses, it is vital to move away from abstract, monocultural arguments proposing business-as-usual as the best practice for all toward more practical work in more locally attuned, diversified agricultures that respect limits—both ecological and human. It is time to scale down agriculture and enhance our resilience to coming disruptions. The transitions will not be easy. We do not yet live in the best of all worlds, but things can be otherwise than as they are. We will need new agricultures and new policies to support them abroad and at home. Let us cultivate our gardens.
    TUHO
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    TUHO: The world’s total, direct energy sector subsidies – including those to
    fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear power – are estimated to have been at least USD 634 billion in 2017. These were dominated by subsidies to fossil fuels, which account for around 70% (USD 447 billion) of the total. Subsidies to renewable power generation technologies account for around
    20 % of total energy sector subsidies (USD 128 billion), biofuels for about 6 % (USD 38 billion) and nuclear for at least 3 % (USD 21 billion).
    TUHO
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    2 odpovědi+1
    In 2017, the costs of unpriced externalities and the direct subsidies for fossil fuels (USD 3.1
    trillion) exceeded subsidies for renewable energy by a factor of 19.

    https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Apr/IRENA_Energy_subsidies_2020.pdf
    TUHO
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    1 odpověď+1
    TUHO: aneb "we are fucking fucked"

    since Paris, $3 trillion have been lent to the coal and oil & gas industry since the Paris Agreement was signed, of which $750 billion in the last year alone. The quantum of capital that's been lent by banks like JP Morgan Chase has gone up. It hasn't gone down. It's gone up. Our own research shows that fossil fuel companies have raised nearly 10 times more capital than renewable energy companies in the last decade or so through public markets in the form of IPOs.
    TUHO
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    1 odpověď
    TUHO: Yes. It is the proven financial consequences of our research that was crucial. There was just such ignorance and cynicism among investors of coal, oil and gas companies. Regulators were not on top of their game and investors weren't understanding the risks. So we thought, let's change mindsets. Let's get regulators understanding the systemic risks of climate change. And let's get the shareholders of these companies thinking about what they could be doing better.
    TUHO
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    3 odpovědi+2
    In the late 90s and early 2000s, with my good friend and co-founder Nick Robins, we started asking simple questions: What happens if Exxon and Shell and all the other companies were to burn all their reserves? How much would that increase atmospheric CO2? And how much would the planet warm by? After years of looking, we just couldn't find anybody who had done that research. So we pulled the analysis together ourselves.

    In essence, we found that there's enough proven reserves already in the world today to take us way past four degrees of warming – and one and a half degrees is the threshold the science tells us we shouldn't exceed. So, this “unburnable carbon” creates what we call “stranded assets”. We describe it as a carbon bubble, a massive overhang of unusable fossil fuels, that has financial consequences for financial regulators and for investors.

    We’re Living Through A Carbon Bubble—Here’s What We Can Do About It
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashoka/2021/03/26/were-living-through-a-carbon-bubble--heres-what-we-can-do-about-it/?sh=3b94da581b62
    TUHO
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    1 odpověď+1
    Carbon bubble?

    - Already in 2011, the world has used over a third of its 50-year carbon budget of 886GtCO2, leaving 565GtCO2

    - All of the proven reserves owned by private and public companies and governments are equivalent to 2,795 GtCO2

    - Fossil fuel reserves owned by the top 100 listed coal and top 100 listed oil and gas companies represent total emissions of 745GtCO2

    - Only 20% of the total reserves can be burned unabated, leaving up to 80% of assets technically unburnable

    Unburnable Carbon: Are the World's Financial Markets Carrying a Carbon Bubble? - Carbon Tracker Initiative
    https://carbontracker.org/reports/carbon-bubble/
    TADEAS
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    +1
    TUHO: mimo to je otazka, jak by stabilita klimatu a stav ekosystemu mely byt ustavne zakotveny, coz by se odrwzelo i v roli techle instituci. a vpastne nevim, jakej vztah ma parizska dohoda k ustave? je ji nadrazena jako nejaka mezinarodni smlouva?
    TUHO
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    2 odpovědi+3
    SHEFIK: Ne, takovejch dokuemntu nejsou tisice. IPCC je globalni autorita, ktera sdruzuje vedce z celyho sveta, ktery delaj obri resersi soucasnyho vedeckyho poznani a venuje tisice clovekohodin nejlepsich mozku sveta, aby zmackla doporuceni do par srozumitelnejch stran pro policymakery.

    Pokud to policymakeri nejsou schopny udelat, tak je to znamka uplne bazalni pohrdani vedou, ci neorientace a ignorance. Coz jsou vlastnosti, ktery mi prijde, ze jsou mezi ekonomomama dost rozsireny .]]

    Ad kralovna: ekonomie je plna totalniho axiomatickyho bullshitu, ktery si vymysleli gentlemani u sklenky whisky, zatimco je obskakovalo sluzebnictvo. Pulka jejich teorii je nekonzistentni matematicky, druha je vyvracena antropologii a etnografii. Ale ekonomove zhusta ostatni vedy nectou, takze o tom nevi a tak spokojene vymejvaj mozky dalsim a dalsim generacim nebohejch studentu ekonomie .]]

    Jinak o problematice vycislovani mas samozrjeme pravdu, nicmene treba takovej neoklasickej mainstream to resi elegantne - tvari se, ze vycislit jdou a tim to hasne .]]

    Ad optimum: problem je, ze neexistuje nic jako jedno "optimum". Pri nejlepsi snaze muzem mluvit o multidimenzionalni krajine, kde jsou rozesety lokalni optima v zavislosti na ruznejch cilech a potrebach, politickejch preferencich, technologickejch moznostech, klimatickejch a ekosytemovejch vlivech etc.
    SHEFIK
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    Ono my to optimum ve vysledku nasledujeme, ale ta cesta jeho neustala konvergence a divergence - viz stridani politickejch stran (nebo bankeru x aktivistu). Pri odzoomovani ale lidstvo koreluje s nejakou optimalizacni krivkou, v nekterych castech sveta rychleji, v nekterych pomaleji.

    Tenhle stret nazoru, expertiz, specializace atd. je ale pro dlouhodobe dosahovani toho optima zadouci.
    SHEFIK
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    1 odpověď
    TUHO: rozumim kam miris. problem je, ze takovejch dokumentu sou tisice. Prob by meli vsichni cist zrovna tenhle a ne jinej? Tady si asi muzeme poplacat po zadech, ze argument zname, ale ze nekdo neco nevi, ho nedela negramotnym. Predpokladam, ze taky nevis vsecko

    Co se tyka wanabe kralovny, to neni zadna poza. Nas zivot je uzce spojenej s tim, jak dokazeme sami sebe nasytit /maaslowova hierarchie potreb/, a proto ten opernej bod je v ekonomii. Ten problem, na kterej narazis je imho jinde - ze nektery veci se velmi spatne vycislujou, jelikoz sou bud komplexni/multifaktorialni a jejich vliv tezko modelovatelnej, nebo moc fuzzy. Proto se jako prvni zahrnou vzdycky ty nejsnaze vycislitelny faktory. Proto mame levici a pravici a pak ruzny nazorovy podskupiny, eko frakce zelenejch... nikdo neumi oojmout veskerou komplexitu naseho sveta.

    Bejt vsecko snadno vycislitelny a modelovatelny, nemusime se ridit nazory a dojmy, ale muzeme velmi snadno nasledovat optimum.
    TUHO
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    +1
    TUHO: Jo a ten dokument je btw tady (a ackoliv filmarsky je dementni, tak jsou tam dobry rozhovory .)

    https://vimeo.com/ondemand/symbioticearthhv
    TUHO
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    2 odpovědi
    SHEFIK: No, tak pokud jses na strategicky pozici, ktera ovlivnuje fungovani celyho hospodarstvi, tak bys mel mit aspon elementarni zaklady stezejnich disciplin. Nejde o to, a bejt klimatolog, ale ty vole bejt aspon schopnej precist si "IPCC report for policymakers", coz je par desitek stran napsany tak, ze je pochopi kazdej.
    Ale ja myslim, ze tohle je systematickej bias, kterej plyne z ekonomickejch teorii a hlavne celyho toho kretenskyho etosu wannabe kralovny spolecenskejch ved. Kdyz sledujes vyjadreni ekonomu, jsou konzistentne zcela naprosto mimo misu, s totalni ignoranci neekonomickycho vedeni. Jako trochu se to pomalu meni, ale jinak je to hruza a dle myho "trained incompetence" jak to hezky popsala v jednom dokumentu Lynn Margulis.
    SHEFIK
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    TUHO: neni to spis o case, ktery tematu venujes, nebo ses schopnej venovat? cas je limitovanej. odsuzovanej nekoho za to, ze nema prehled ve vsem mi prijde dost omezeny. je to jak rikat detem, ze sou hloupy, protoze jim neni jasny to co tobe. raketovej inzenyr asi nebude mit nikdy cas zkoumat, jaky procesy fungujou na arktide a entomolg bude tezko expertem na ekonomicky rizeni statu.
    TUHO
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    DNF
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    TUHO: Mno, to je jeden z duvodu, proc si uz dlouho myslim, ze lidstvo vyhynout musi: protoze vetsina elit jsou psychopati co toho nahledu nejsou schopni, tak trochu pro spolecnost menecenni jedinci.
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam