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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    PER2: no ale tohle mereni je zpochybnovany ne?
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    globalna to nebude, u nas bolo tak do 30
    SEJDA
    SEJDA --- ---
    PER2: ja to pochopil tak, ze Michael E. Mann myslel globalni teplotu. Protoze jestli myslel lokalni teplotu, tak asi u nej v obyvaku ;)
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    PER2: ale celkom sranda ze v ten isty den :)
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    TUHO: fake news?

    The world record for the highest recorded temperature was 134 degrees on July 10, 1913, at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, according to Guinness World Records.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TUHO: 🍾 na klimato-thanatologii!
    MARSHUS
    MARSHUS --- ---
    SHEFIK: otevři to v browseru co normálně nepoužíváš a máš tam jeden článek zdarma.

    MARSHUS:

    We’re Right to Worry About Nightmare Climate Scenarios
    The economist Martin Weitzman got scientists and politicians to think about the worst-case outcomes of global warming. We’re seeing them happen right now.

    It’s hot out. It’s getting hotter. The climate memes practically write themselves: “Think this summer is hot? Consider it the coolest of the rest of the 21st century.”

    It’s these events—the extreme hot days, droughts, floods, and other weather phenomena made worse through climate change—that the late, great Martin Weitzman thought about when writing about the “fat tails” of climate change, including in our joint book, Climate Shock.

    Weitzman, who died two years ago this summer, got economists to think about just how bad the worst-case scenario of global warming could be. It’s not only about rising means, medians and averages of global temperatures, which themselves should have prompted the world to cut CO₂ decades ago. Climate change, he argued forcefully in a series of academic papers in the early 2000s, was a serious concern precisely because of what we don’t yet know and can’t quantify: the unknowns and unknowables.

    The “fat tails” here refer to the long, right tail of the bell curve depicting eventual global average warming due to a doubling of CO₂. Most scientists have been focused on what’s “likely,” as, in many ways, they should. But while it’s good to plan for what’s in store, insurance is all about the low-probability, high-impact event—the long right tail of potential nightmare scenarios.

    https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i00B1cB3xneU/v0/800x-1.png

    If all of that sounds theoretical and far off, it is. It was to Weitzman, too. He himself was much more worried about the present, and about extreme weather events and their impacts.

    Here’s a typical Weitzman thought experiment that came up on a walk we took near his home on a small marsh island in Gloucester, Massachusetts. What would happen if an intense hurricane hit Boston? A powerful storm making landfall along the Gulf coast was bad enough—people would lose their jobs, maybe even their lives. But Florida has seen hurricanes before and knows it will see them again. There are emergency plans in place. Highways have marked evacuation routes. In Boston, the consequences would be devastating. Nobody in New England, including Weitzman, was prepared for that.

    Thus, he focused on climate as an insurance problem. Cutting carbon now, he argued, was valuable not just because it lowered global average temperatures, but more so because it lowered the chance of catastrophic events.

    The math, however, did not yet support his intuition. Attribution science, the work of linking individual extreme weather events to climate change, was still a relatively new discipline in the early aughts. Hurricane scientists like Kerry Emanuel at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology were already warning about more intense, climate change-fueled hurricanes in the North Atlantic. But such events were simply too rare to draw definitive conclusions at the time.

    Weitzman instead focused on truly long-term extremes: the link between concentrations of CO₂ in the atmosphere and eventual average global temperatures. He showed mathematically how important it was to consider the worst possible outcome of unchecked climate change. Weitzman’s reasoning flipped the standard climate-economic script: the burden of proof was no longer on those arguing that extremes mattered, it was on those arguing that they don’t. Even the low probability of a true nightmare scenario dwarfed almost every other concern.

    In making this point, Weitzman took on two other key figures in climate economics. Yale economist William Nordhaus, who would go on to win a Nobel Prize for his work, had developed a model that showed how climate change warrants only an incremental approach, encapsulated by a relatively low carbon tax. Lord Nicholas Stern, meanwhile, argued for much stronger action. Weitzman thought Stern was right, but that he was “right for the wrong reasons.”

    Now it increasingly looks like Weitzman’s own mathematical argument might prove right for the wrong reasons. It may not be the link between CO₂ concentrations and temperatures playing out over decades and centuries that shows how the effect of climate extremes could overshadow all else. The droughts, floods and heatwaves sweeping across the globe show how climate is an insurance problem, right here, right now.

    Gernot Wagner writes the Risky Climate column for Bloomberg Green. He teaches at New York University and is the co-author, joint with Martin Weitzman, of “Climate Shock.” His book “Geoengineering: the Gamble” is out this fall. Follow him on Twitter: @GernotWagner. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: 130 degrees Fahrenheit recorded in Death Valley (54.4 degrees Celsius).

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/07/09/death-valley-record-high-temperature/
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Bouchejte sano!

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Last week’s shockingly high temperatures in the northwestern US and Canada were – and are – very frightening. Heat and the fires it caused killed hundreds of people, and are estimated to have killed a billion sea creatures. Daily temperature records were smashed by more than 5C (9F) in some places. In Lytton, British Columbia, the heat reached 49.6C (121F). The wildfires that consumed the town produced their own thunderstorms, alongside thousands of lightning strikes.

    An initial study shows human activity made this heat dome – in which a ridge of high pressure acts as a lid preventing warm air from escaping – at least 150 times more likely. The World Weather Attribution Group of scientists, who use computer climate models to assess global heating trends and extreme weather, have warned that last week exceeded even their worst-case scenarios. While it has long been recognised that the climate system has thresholds or tipping points beyond which humans stand to lose control of what happens, scientists did not hide their alarm that an usually cool part of the Pacific northwest had been turned into a furnace. One climatologist said the prospect opened up by the heat dome “blows my mind”.

    The Guardian view on the heat dome: burning through the models | Editorial | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/08/the-guardian-view-on-the-heat-dome-burning-through-the-models
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    MARSHUS: paywall :( nemuzes to sem zkopirovat?
    MARSHUS
    MARSHUS --- ---
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    PAD: s tema tepelnejma cerpadlama mi pripominas tenhle zkusebni projekt v anglii
    4,5km hlubokej vrt (2x - jeden bude vytapet biodomes a druhej bude elektrarna)
    https://youtu.be/o--vpET3e4g
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    David Barnden
    hlttps://twitter.com/dbarnden/status/1412928087302447105?s=19

    BREAKING: It is now officially Australian law that the Environment Minister has a duty to avoid causing personal injury and death to Australian children from carbon emissions when approving a coal extension project.

    Sharma by her litigation representative Sister Marie Brigid Arthur v Minister for the Environment (No 2) [2021] FCA 774
    https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/single/2021/2021fca0774
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Top @thejuicemedia clip on oil & gas company influence over govt agencies #BOM and #gisera. Draws on @jarrapin Bureau of Meteorology scoops (BOM playing down climate change)

    Honest Government Ad | We Make Everything Good Sh!t
    https://youtu.be/-uXo7wtGW7M
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Western North American extreme heat virtually impossible without human-caused climate change – World Weather Attribution
    https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/

    Za vlnou veder stojí lidé a oteplování, není pochyb, tvrdí vědci - Seznam Zprávy
    https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/za-vlnou-veder-stoji-lide-a-oteplovani-neni-pochyb-tvrdi-vedci-169278
    PAD
    PAD --- ---
    MASTODONT: Obavam se, ze s vanickou se vyleje i dite. Dovoz dreva pres ocean a jeho paleni v elektrarnach v UK nebo NL je samozrejme zvrhlost. Na druhou stranu soused ma kotel na peletky, ktere si vozi z cca 7km vzdalene pily, kde je vyrabi z odpadu z vyroby. IMHO je toto lepsi, nez palit plyn, ktery kudy tece, tudy unika a nakonec stejne vygeneruje CO2. O samovyrobe dreva na venkove ani nemluve, tam ta uhlikova stopa je oproti tomu "prumyslovemu" spalovani dreva zanedbatelna (tedy za predpokladu, ze se hospodari staraji o sve lesy rozume, coz plati jen u nekterych, ale zacina je k tomu tlacit i kurovec, takze bych to nevidel nejak cerne).

    Ono je to vzdycky slozitejsi - kdyz maji lidi levne drevo k dispozici, tak zase (nekteri) zbytecne pretapi domy (znam takove, kteri se chlubi svymi 27C v obyvacich, protoze drevo maji "zdarma" - a to v nezateplenych domech). Na druhou stranu tolik vychvalovana tep. cerpadla jsou sice nasobne efektivnejsi, ale zalezi, jaka elektrina do nich tece. (Super kombinace mi v tomto ohledu prijde FVE + TC + akumulacni nadrz.) Kdyz vidim ta cerpadla kolem novych domu a zaroven vidavam plne vagony kurovcoveho dreva na vyvoz buhvikam (Polsko, Cina, atp), tak mi to neprijde jako rozumny. My Cinanum drevo, oni nam elektrokomponenty vyrobene z uhelne (prevazne) energie. Je to cele proste blbe...
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    A new study found that carbonate rock mounds on the ocean floor host communities of microbes that actively consume methane, a greenhouse gas that is particularly potent if released into the atmosphere.
    The researchers found that rock-inhabiting microbes consumed methane 50 times faster than microbes that live in sediment.
    These microbes therefore play a crucial role in regulating the Earth’s temperature by consuming methane before it travels up into the water column and into the atmosphere.

    Seafloor microbes hoover up methane, keeping global warming in check
    https://news.mongabay.com/2021/07/seafloor-microbes-hoover-up-methane-keeping-global-warming-in-check
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model | Scientific Reports
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-90138-1
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Studies add to concern about climate tipping
    https://phys.org/news/2021-07-climate.amp

    In the first study, the authors show in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model how the mid-latitude wind systems over Europe and North America has a probability to tip between different types of behavior (or different regimes, as climate scientists say) depending on the strength of an El Niño. In other words, the climate phenomenon El Niño—during which heat builds up in the surface layers of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—determines whether the mid-latitude wind system in the U.S.A. will be more or less likely to shift abruptly between one regime and another.

    Such probabilistic climate tipping complicates prediction, which is generally based on the assumption that climate systems change gradually in a more predictable manner. The findings, - co-authored with Stéphane Vannitsem and Jonathan Demaeyer from the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium and published in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, thus explain why the patterns of precipitation and temperature during and after an El Niño have been difficult to predict with accuracy up till now.

    ...

    The other result concerns rate-induced tipping. This kind of climate tipping takes place not because a certain threshold level is reached, like a CO2 level in the atmosphere, but rather because the rate of change is too fast for the system to evolve gradually.

    The study—co-authored with Stefano Pierini from the Parthenope University of Naples and published in Scientific Reports, finds rate-induced tipping in a simplified model of the wind-driven ocean circulation for the first time. In this model study, the Gulf Stream—which distributes heat to the North Atlantic and plays an important role in keeping the temperatures in Western Europe relatively mild—tips between regimes when CO2 is introduced at a rapid rate into the model

    Such a result is highly relevant as levels of CO2 in the atmosphere currently go up at an unprecedented rate. If the Gulf Stream eventually tips in this rate-induced manner, Western Europe could experience rather abrupt changes to its climate.

    "These results indicate that climate tipping is an imminent risk in the Earth System. Even the safe operating space of 1.5 or 2.0 degrees above present generally assumed by the IPCC might not be all that safe. According to the precautionary principle, we must consider abrupt and irreversible changes to the climate system as a real risk
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