TADEAS: : algoritmicky modely nikdy nepostihnou veskerej chaos sveta. To by musely bejt tak komplexni, jako svet samotnej. Lidstvo bude jeste prekvapeny

Komentar k nedavnemu IEA reportu o vzacnych kovech potrebnych pro dekarbonizaci"

It doesn’t have to be this way, and here are three reasons why:

The IEA itself highlights that “recycling relieves the pressure on primary supply,” and that recycled copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt from spent batteries could reduce combined primary supply requirements by approximately 10% by 2040;
Research that Earthworks recently published, prepared by the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology Sydney, shows much more optimistic results of 25-55% potential demand reduction through increased recycling of nickel, cobalt, lithium, and copper from EV batteries alone;
Recycling has the potential to be a major source of jobs, as EV and other batteries capable of being recycled increase in production. This job can and must be done with the strictest labor and safety laws.
Other strategies, such as public and collective transportation solutions, have significant potential to reduce demand for metals used in electric vehicle batteries. It’s not enough to move from one type of “take-make-waste” extraction-based linear economy; to comprehensively address the climate crisis the world writ large (but especially wealthy and/or Western countries) must commit to fundamentally reshaping our approach to consumption. Specifically, this means moving towards what the UK-based NGO War on Want calls a circular economy, not just for minerals but for all resources and goods, and eventually a circular society, “in which not only waste is minimised, but consumption itself is questioned.” We must no longer assume the planet can handle infinite growth and production.


https://www.earthworks.org/blog/whats-missing-from-the-new-iea-report-on-mining-and-the-renewable-energy-transition/

Belgium has been hit by floods for the second time in just over a week.
The provinces of Namur and Walloon Brabant southeast of the capital city Brussels were among the worst hit, after thunderstorms and heavy rain reached the country on Saturday.

Severe Flooding Carries Cars and Leaves Heavy Damage in Dinant, Belgium
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCiN6rdEHZY


Drought adds to Belgian farmers' coronavirus misery | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belgium-drought-idUSKBN2351I7

Herrington, 39, says she undertook the update (available on the KPMG website and credited to its publisher, the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology) independently “out of pure curiosity about data accuracy”. Her findings were bleak: current data aligns well with the 1970s analysis that showed economic growth could end at the end of the current decade and collapse come about 10 years later (in worst case scenarios).

The timing of Herrington’s paper, as world economies grapple with the impact of the pandemic, is highly prescient as governments largely look to return economies to business-as-usual growth, despite loud warnings that continuing economic growth is incompatible with sustainability.

Earlier this year, in a paper titled Beyond Growth, the analyst wrote plainly: “Amidst global slowdown and risks of depressed future growth potential from climate change, social unrest, and geopolitical instability, to name a few, responsible leaders face the possibility that growth will be limited in the future. And only a fool keeps chasing an impossibility.”

Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction | Climate change | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/25/gaya-herrington-mit-study-the-limits-to-growth

Extreme weather takes climate change models ‘off the scale’
https://www.ft.com/content/9a647a51-ede8-480e-ba78-cbf14ad878b7

Extreme weather takes climate change models ‘off the scale’
Scientists say the shifting pattern of the jet stream is exacerbating the effects of climate change

...

Climate scientists say the severity of these events is simply “off scale” compared with what atmospheric models forecast — even when global warming is fully taken into account.

“I think I would be speaking for many climate scientists to say that we are a bit shocked at what we are seeing,” said Chris Rapley, professor of climate science at University College London. “There is a dramatic change in the frequency with which extreme [weather] events occur.” 

From the deadly flooding in Germany last week, to scorching heat in Canada, and a deluge in the Black Sea region, the pace and scale of catastrophic damage has been almost unimaginable, even for experts who have spent their lives studying it.

One driver behind many of these events is the shifting pattern of the jet stream, a fast-flowing band of air that governs weather in the Northern hemisphere. It is becoming slower and wavier, particularly in summer months.

...

This means heatwaves and drought (linked to high pressure systems) and flooding (linked to low pressure systems) both become more persistent.

...

Mann is worried that current models do not reproduce the jet stream behaviour accurately. “This means they are underestimating the magnitude of the impact of climate change on extreme weather events,” he says.

“While the overall warming of the planet is pretty much in line with climate model predictions from decades ago, the rise in extreme weather events is exceeding the predictions,” Mann notes.

PER2: taky to muzes vest dal, za protrzeni prehrad muze clovek, protoze postavil prehrady. a kazda prehrada jednou skonci, bud managovane (vypustenim) nebo nemanagovane (vyschnutim, protrzenim). :)

co se tyce klima zmeny, ta je pricinou v tom smyslu, ze ty vykyvy jsou vetsi a proto snadno presahnou planovanou kapacitu infrastruktury.

v cine je pres 100.000 vodnich nadrzi a velka cast se stavela v 50. -70. letech (zivotnost byva kolem 50 let) skoro vesina jsou sypane hraze a na jejich udrzbu se davaj stejny prachy asi jako v cechach na cokoliv statniho, podle statistik za poslenich nekolik desetileti je v cine rocni sance na dam failure (0.088%) 4x vetsi nez prumerne ve svete (0.02%), kolem roku 2005 v cine kazdy rok selhalo cca 70 prehrad/hrazi, nevim jaky cisla maji ted

neni cela historie ciny zalozena na zaplavach a ze nejlepsi vudce bude ten, ktery vodu dokaze zkrotit? rekl bych ze na podfinancovany hraze bez penez na udrzbu a rozvoj obrovskych mest pod nima za poslednich par dekad si vedou porad docela dobre

ale urcite za vsechno muze zmena klimatu

TUHO: tohle je ilustrace hranic ekosystem/civilizace. civilizacni development je krehkej a neni rezilientni vuci ekosystemovejm procesum (obzvlast v ty dnesni variante jejich nadlimitniho vychylovani). tzn. rezilience spociva primarne v tech zivejch (biologickejch, vc. lidi) potazmo ekosystemovejch strukturach. jakejkoliv development je systemove videno sekundarni vuci ekosystemu (a jeho managementu). jako maj infrastruktury svoji urcitou hybnost a cas potrebnej k transformaci (pokud ma byt udrzena kontinuita), tak to je podobne i v rovine ekosystemu. ekosystemove, pokud ekosystem podrazujeme narokum civilizace je v ekosystemu jistej dluh, kdy primarni regenerace ekosystemovejch vazeb trva nejakejch 5-10-20 let (horni hranice vc. kulturni zmeny, updatu instituci, lidskyho vedeni, atp.).

Kolapsy hrazi v Cine po masivnich zaplavach

Dam Collapse In China • China Dam Collapse • China Dam Collapse 2021 [Two dams in China collapse]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7JJyPB4SaE

Reforma naopak přináší významnou změnu pro sektory dopravy a budov, kde hrozí přenést náklady za emise plošně na obyvatele. Emise z dopravy a budov spadaly dosud pod tzv. nařízení o sdílení úsilí a podléhaly tak závazným emisním cílům jednotlivých členských států. Komise ale navzdory kritice ze strany nevládních organizací navrhla vytvořit pro tyto sektory nový systém obchodování s emisními povolenkami, jehož důsledkem bude nejspíš zvýšení cen pohonných hmot a vytápění. Opatření tak plošně dopadne na všechny.

Přenášení nákladů na domácnosti současně s ponecháním výše zmíněných úlev pro významné průmyslové znečišťovatele je nepochopitelným selháním předloženého návrhu. Evropská komise se pokusila vyvážit jej návrhem nového sociálního fondu, který by měl část emisních povolenek přetavit v příspěvky pro nejvýrazněji zasažené rodiny a obyvatele. Ani tento fond ale pravděpodobně nebude pro nízkopříjmové domácnosti dostatečnou kompenzací.

https://a2larm.cz/2021/07/nova-evropska-klimaticka-legislativa-pokulhava-daleko-za-realitou-klimaticke-krize/