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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    YMLADRIS: Jj, castej argument je, ze "dopady jsou uz tak ocividny, ze se nedaj ignorovat". A to si myslim, ze uplne tak nefunguje. Ty dopady totiz ukazujou na zmenu klimatu jenom skrze velmi komplikovanej aparat vedecky analyzy. Jinak je to izolovana katastroficka udalost, ktera tady byla vzdycky (a vzdycky bude). No a tim, jak je zkousnuti ty vedecky verze emocionalne narocny, tak ziskava na atraktivite narativ, ze to je vsechno vedeckej komplot, prefukovani a vlastne se nic tak dramatickyho nedeje. Za par let bude stejne doba ledova etc .]
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    YMLADRIS: Asi ne. Jen to trochu komplikuje tu představu, že na naše emise doplatí někdo jiný. Climate genocide není až tak projev sobectví, jako spíš další level popření, lidé neví co s tím, doufají, že se jich to nedotkne a třetí svět má prostě smůlu. Když na to upozorníš, tak vyvoláš jen vztek. Pocity viny ale nejsou na místě, ve skutečnosti jsme ale na cestě ke species suicide. Spravedlnost bude.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    GOJATLA: jak loni shorela ta australie, .. zpusobilo to obrat klimaticke politiky tam? nevim
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    Stuck in the Smoke as Billionaires Blast Off
    https://theintercept.com/2021/07/23/stuck-in-the-smoke-as-billionaires-blast-off/
    Naomi Klein

    ...something dramatic is changing in public perception: a dropping away of the fantasy of safety in the wealthier parts of the world, as well as the beginnings of cracks in the faith that money and technology will find solutions just in the nick of time.

    Climate inaction in the rich world was never really about denial. Belgians and Germans knew climate change was real; they just thought poorer countries would bear the brunt of it. And up until recently, they were right.

    In this summer of fires and floods, it appears to be dawning on many that even this sinister form of climate apartheid is likely an illusion for all but the ultrarich. As Nasheed said, and as the New York Times echoed in an ominous headline overlaid on a photograph of a burning building: “No one is safe.” We are all trapped in this crisis — whether under that relentless pall of smoke, or in a heat that hits like a physical wall, or under rains and winds that will not stop.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: : algoritmicky modely nikdy nepostihnou veskerej chaos sveta. To by musely bejt tak komplexni, jako svet samotnej. Lidstvo bude jeste prekvapeny
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Komentar k nedavnemu IEA reportu o vzacnych kovech potrebnych pro dekarbonizaci"

    It doesn’t have to be this way, and here are three reasons why:

    The IEA itself highlights that “recycling relieves the pressure on primary supply,” and that recycled copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt from spent batteries could reduce combined primary supply requirements by approximately 10% by 2040;
    Research that Earthworks recently published, prepared by the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology Sydney, shows much more optimistic results of 25-55% potential demand reduction through increased recycling of nickel, cobalt, lithium, and copper from EV batteries alone;
    Recycling has the potential to be a major source of jobs, as EV and other batteries capable of being recycled increase in production. This job can and must be done with the strictest labor and safety laws.
    Other strategies, such as public and collective transportation solutions, have significant potential to reduce demand for metals used in electric vehicle batteries. It’s not enough to move from one type of “take-make-waste” extraction-based linear economy; to comprehensively address the climate crisis the world writ large (but especially wealthy and/or Western countries) must commit to fundamentally reshaping our approach to consumption. Specifically, this means moving towards what the UK-based NGO War on Want calls a circular economy, not just for minerals but for all resources and goods, and eventually a circular society, “in which not only waste is minimised, but consumption itself is questioned.” We must no longer assume the planet can handle infinite growth and production.


    https://www.earthworks.org/blog/whats-missing-from-the-new-iea-report-on-mining-and-the-renewable-energy-transition/
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    TUHO: tak ono to souvisí, protože jedno vlhké jaro podle všeho nestačilo, aby se obnovila integrita půdy a holt se to zřejmě o to snadněji spláchlo. na většině míst jsou vidět přívaly bláta. (to město v Německu, které si na svém okraji kutalo obří jámu, to je kapitola sama pro sebe, to ani nespadá do kapitoly krimatická klize, to je poučka z obecného betonářství, že se vytěží hromada písku do betonu a pak se do té díry spláchne okolí :-)

    přívalové deště jsou i na pouštích, občas.. .akorát tam chybí půda, do které by se vsákly
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: A Belgie minuly rok

    Belgium is facing its driest May since the 19th century, with conditions that have stunted crop growth and cut yields in the agricultural province of West Flanders.
    The region’s governor Carl Decaluwe on Monday banned water pumping from streams running off the Yser river, after levels fell below 2.9 metres.
    “We had to do it because otherwise the damage would be irreparable,” Decaluwe said, adding a prolonged drought could cost the region “tens of millions” of euros in damages.
    “We haven’t seen such low water levels in 30 years, and we are experiencing the driest weeks in 120 years.”
    For farmers, who usually pump riverwater into their fields, the ban has left them waiting for rain.
    “Normally I get 50 to 60 tonnes of corn from an acre. But now we will have to be happy with only half of that - on the condition that it will start raining again,” Joel Van Coppenolle, a farmer from the town of Kaaskerke, said. As he spoke, he stood in fields where his corn seedlings are half their usual size, and the soil is cracked and dusty.

    Drought adds to Belgian farmers' coronavirus misery | Reuters
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belgium-drought-idUSKBN2351I7
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Belgium has been hit by floods for the second time in just over a week.
    The provinces of Namur and Walloon Brabant southeast of the capital city Brussels were among the worst hit, after thunderstorms and heavy rain reached the country on Saturday.

    Severe Flooding Carries Cars and Leaves Heavy Damage in Dinant, Belgium
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCiN6rdEHZY


    Drought adds to Belgian farmers' coronavirus misery | Reuters
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belgium-drought-idUSKBN2351I7
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Herrington, 39, says she undertook the update (available on the KPMG website and credited to its publisher, the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology) independently “out of pure curiosity about data accuracy”. Her findings were bleak: current data aligns well with the 1970s analysis that showed economic growth could end at the end of the current decade and collapse come about 10 years later (in worst case scenarios).

    The timing of Herrington’s paper, as world economies grapple with the impact of the pandemic, is highly prescient as governments largely look to return economies to business-as-usual growth, despite loud warnings that continuing economic growth is incompatible with sustainability.

    Earlier this year, in a paper titled Beyond Growth, the analyst wrote plainly: “Amidst global slowdown and risks of depressed future growth potential from climate change, social unrest, and geopolitical instability, to name a few, responsible leaders face the possibility that growth will be limited in the future. And only a fool keeps chasing an impossibility.”

    Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction | Climate change | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/25/gaya-herrington-mit-study-the-limits-to-growth
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Extreme weather takes climate change models ‘off the scale’
    https://www.ft.com/content/9a647a51-ede8-480e-ba78-cbf14ad878b7

    Extreme weather takes climate change models ‘off the scale’
    Scientists say the shifting pattern of the jet stream is exacerbating the effects of climate change

    ...

    Climate scientists say the severity of these events is simply “off scale” compared with what atmospheric models forecast — even when global warming is fully taken into account.

    “I think I would be speaking for many climate scientists to say that we are a bit shocked at what we are seeing,” said Chris Rapley, professor of climate science at University College London. “There is a dramatic change in the frequency with which extreme [weather] events occur.” 

    From the deadly flooding in Germany last week, to scorching heat in Canada, and a deluge in the Black Sea region, the pace and scale of catastrophic damage has been almost unimaginable, even for experts who have spent their lives studying it.

    One driver behind many of these events is the shifting pattern of the jet stream, a fast-flowing band of air that governs weather in the Northern hemisphere. It is becoming slower and wavier, particularly in summer months.

    ...

    This means heatwaves and drought (linked to high pressure systems) and flooding (linked to low pressure systems) both become more persistent.

    ...

    Mann is worried that current models do not reproduce the jet stream behaviour accurately. “This means they are underestimating the magnitude of the impact of climate change on extreme weather events,” he says.

    “While the overall warming of the planet is pretty much in line with climate model predictions from decades ago, the rise in extreme weather events is exceeding the predictions,” Mann notes.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    PER2: taky to muzes vest dal, za protrzeni prehrad muze clovek, protoze postavil prehrady. a kazda prehrada jednou skonci, bud managovane (vypustenim) nebo nemanagovane (vyschnutim, protrzenim). :)

    co se tyce klima zmeny, ta je pricinou v tom smyslu, ze ty vykyvy jsou vetsi a proto snadno presahnou planovanou kapacitu infrastruktury.
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    v cine je pres 100.000 vodnich nadrzi a velka cast se stavela v 50. -70. letech (zivotnost byva kolem 50 let) skoro vesina jsou sypane hraze a na jejich udrzbu se davaj stejny prachy asi jako v cechach na cokoliv statniho, podle statistik za poslenich nekolik desetileti je v cine rocni sance na dam failure (0.088%) 4x vetsi nez prumerne ve svete (0.02%), kolem roku 2005 v cine kazdy rok selhalo cca 70 prehrad/hrazi, nevim jaky cisla maji ted

    neni cela historie ciny zalozena na zaplavach a ze nejlepsi vudce bude ten, ktery vodu dokaze zkrotit? rekl bych ze na podfinancovany hraze bez penez na udrzbu a rozvoj obrovskych mest pod nima za poslednich par dekad si vedou porad docela dobre

    ale urcite za vsechno muze zmena klimatu
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    Postavili priehradu proti zaplavam, ale asi ju poddimenzovali, navrhli ju iba na pravidelne zaplavy kazdy rok ale nie na 1000-rocnu vodu
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TUHO: tohle je ilustrace hranic ekosystem/civilizace. civilizacni development je krehkej a neni rezilientni vuci ekosystemovejm procesum (obzvlast v ty dnesni variante jejich nadlimitniho vychylovani). tzn. rezilience spociva primarne v tech zivejch (biologickejch, vc. lidi) potazmo ekosystemovejch strukturach. jakejkoliv development je systemove videno sekundarni vuci ekosystemu (a jeho managementu). jako maj infrastruktury svoji urcitou hybnost a cas potrebnej k transformaci (pokud ma byt udrzena kontinuita), tak to je podobne i v rovine ekosystemu. ekosystemove, pokud ekosystem podrazujeme narokum civilizace je v ekosystemu jistej dluh, kdy primarni regenerace ekosystemovejch vazeb trva nejakejch 5-10-20 let (horni hranice vc. kulturni zmeny, updatu instituci, lidskyho vedeni, atp.).
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    PER2: ten pristup je mi jasnej :) spis sem zvedavej na ty dopady.

    Imho je udrzitelnejsi cesta odsolovani a rovnomerny zavlazovani, nez poroucet nebesum
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Kolapsy hrazi v Cine po masivnich zaplavach

    Dam Collapse In China • China Dam Collapse • China Dam Collapse 2021 [Two dams in China collapse]
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7JJyPB4SaE
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    SHEFIK: kdyz mas prachy, tak te nezajima, ze neco narusis, dulezity je, ze tvoje zeme ma vodu, na sousedy sere pes ;)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    PER2: mno, v dusledku se tim ale narusi prirozeny cykly, takze narusis rovnovahu tech ekosystemu, ktery prijdou o srazky. Pokud tohle nebude managovany globalne, tak v dusledku to muze zpusobit daleko rychlejsi krize, nez "plynuly" globalni oteplovani

    Scary
    MARSHUS
    MARSHUS --- ---
    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/07/24/three-degrees-of-global-warming-is-quite-plausible-and-truly-disastrous

    zase si muzete precist pravdepodobne jeden clanek bez paywallu, kdyz tak z browseru co nepouzivate. economist tuhle zalezitost informovane ignoroval dost dlouho, je dobre ze tyhle pacholci to zacinaji brat vazne.

    btw. kde tu mame auditko kolaps :/
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Reforma naopak přináší významnou změnu pro sektory dopravy a budov, kde hrozí přenést náklady za emise plošně na obyvatele. Emise z dopravy a budov spadaly dosud pod tzv. nařízení o sdílení úsilí a podléhaly tak závazným emisním cílům jednotlivých členských států. Komise ale navzdory kritice ze strany nevládních organizací navrhla vytvořit pro tyto sektory nový systém obchodování s emisními povolenkami, jehož důsledkem bude nejspíš zvýšení cen pohonných hmot a vytápění. Opatření tak plošně dopadne na všechny.

    Přenášení nákladů na domácnosti současně s ponecháním výše zmíněných úlev pro významné průmyslové znečišťovatele je nepochopitelným selháním předloženého návrhu. Evropská komise se pokusila vyvážit jej návrhem nového sociálního fondu, který by měl část emisních povolenek přetavit v příspěvky pro nejvýrazněji zasažené rodiny a obyvatele. Ani tento fond ale pravděpodobně nebude pro nízkopříjmové domácnosti dostatečnou kompenzací.

    https://a2larm.cz/2021/07/nova-evropska-klimaticka-legislativa-pokulhava-daleko-za-realitou-klimaticke-krize/
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