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Roger Hallam (Extinction Rebellion) ke zprave:

Roger Hallam

The Crisis: Four States of Denial
… As the IPCC gives it latest report
The first state of denial is the one everyone is familiar with: that climate change does not exist or, if it does, it is not caused by humans. The vast majority of people are now over this denial (apart from some Republican voters in the US). There is such a thing as facts and, well, facts are facts.
The second state of denial is that we do not have to engage in an immediate and massive transformation of our economies and societies. There is the pretence for instance that 1.5C is still possible, and that we can stay under 2C by ambling down to “net zero” by 2050. We cannot. As Sir David King the former chief scientific advisor to the UK government has put it “what we do in the next 3-4 years will determine the future of humanity”. This is because the world is already over 500 ppm of CO2 equivalent (the combined effect of all greenhouse gases) and the amount of heat being trapped by the planet has doubled in the last 15 years: “There is no carbon budget left”. Or as Norman Loeb the lead researcher on the heat imbalance research project made clear, we are heading into ecological destruction of unimaginable proportions. The “climate industry” is in denial about this: the diplomats, the political parties, the NGOs, Fridays for a Future, establishment scientists, and the liberal elements in XR. However many individuals in these social networks privately understand the situation perfectly well, but generally only those that are retired speak about it publicly.
The third state of denial is that we can create this transformation without mass and high level civil resistance. There is massive denial about this even in the supposedly radical elements of the environmental movement. Hence the false compassion that says “you don’t have to get arrested”. The whole of the Left is in denial about this – where is Black Lives Matters, where is the feminist movement, where is the labour movement? They all have the quaint humanist delusion, rooted in their “Enlightenment” philosophy, that nature something separate from society. That’s why Guardian articles only talk about sea level rise, temperature rises, and methane release but hardly ever talk about the secondary social effects of mass slaughter and rape, or genocide and fascism. Covid did not manage to break the denial but climate collapse surely will. The only thing that puts us in the ballpark of effective change given we have no time is economic disruption (closing of ports, motorways, pipelines etc) and/or the mass occupation of the centre of state capitals. Dressing up in costumes, going to ghostly international conferences, and moaning on social media, with all due respect, is just another displacement activity at this stage in the game.
The fourth state of denial is that the present political system will respond in time to this civil resistance. It will not. Only a political revolution will result in the World War Two transformation we now need. This is not a political statement but a sociological one – conventional political regimes have limits on how fast they can change. And political revolutions will inevitably happen once populations, probably later this decade, come face to face with the truly horrific depth of the fiscal crises and systemic breakdowns we face – given that civilisational collapse is now locked in for large parts of the world. They will demand the removal and prosecution of the political class “who knew all along but did nothing” and institute new political regimes: in other words, there will be revolutions. With a bit of luck they will be nonviolent and involve the institutionalisation of citizens assemblies in northern Europe, Canada and Australia. The US and southern Europe are more likely to descend into civil war, fascistic authoritarianism, and/or social collapse as a secondary effect of hundreds of millions of refugees fleeing from the depopulating sub tropics in an attempt to escape mass starvation and the deadly threat of wet bulb temperatures – Central America, the Middle East, India, and Africa, South West Asia.
This is where we are in 2021. The “crucial decade” was 2010-20, as we were told at the time, not the 2020’s. The 2020’s will be the decade of consequences. Like the people who understood the real nature of the Nazi project in the 1930’s and took in the Jews during World War Two, those that overcome these states of denial, and act in response to the real nature of the world today, are not predominately part of either the Left or Right, or of a particular religious or cultural group. What they have in common is what Tim Snyder, author of “Black Earth, Holocaust as History and Warning” calls “self knowledge”: the personality structure that is able to overcome the pressure to conform to the herd, and the ethical inability to stand by as society descends into evil.
In the next two to three years the prevention of humanity’s greatest hell of rape, slaughter, and starvation will depend on whether this small group of people around the world go into active and unlimited nonviolent resistance against the carbon regimes. These people already know who they are.
Email ring2021@protonmail.com to engage in civil resistance.

A teda predevsim:

AR6 Climate Change 2021:

The Physical Science Basis
The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report addresses the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science, and combining multiple lines of evidence from paleoclimate, observations, process understanding, and global and regional climate simulations.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

Odborníci se už dříve shodli, že klíčovou hranicí ve změnách klimatu je oteplení o 1,5 stupně Celsia ve srovnání s předindustriálním obdobím. Při respektování nejambicióznějšího plánu, který zahrnuje naprosté zastavení jakýchkoliv emisí CO2 a razantní snížení všech ostatních emisí, překonáme tuto teplotní hranici zhruba za 20 let. Teplota se nejprve přehoupne přes hranici oteplení o 1,6 stupně Celsia a poté ke konci století bude klesat na 1,4 stupně Celsia ve srovnání s dobou před průmyslovou revolucí, uvádí zpráva IPCC. Celosvětově se již oteplilo o 1,2 stupně Celsia a lidstvo kritickou hranici nejspíš překoná zhruba o deset let dříve, než vědci původně odhadovali. Panel OSN novou zprávou apeluje na politiky i firmy, aby razantně změnili svůj přístup k výrobě a pojetí ekonomiky, které jsou hlavní příčinou globálního oteplování.
Bez lidského přičinění by velmi pravděpodobně nenastal žádný z extrémních klimatických jevů posledních let, jako jsou vlny veder na souši i na moři, sucha nebo záplavy. „Je velmi pravděpodobné, že epizody s vydatnými srážkami budou ve většině regionů s dalším globálním oteplováním intenzivnější a častější,“ uvádí se ve zprávě.

Člověk způsobuje globální oteplování, vlny veder i povodně, popisuje nová zpráva IPCC — ČT24 — Česká televize
https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/veda/3352272-clovek-zpusobuje-globalni-oteplovani-katastrofalni-vlny-veden-i-povodne-popisuje-nova

„Zpráva uvádí, že je nezpochybnitelné, že lidská činnost oteplila atmosféru, oceány i souši a že toto oteplování bude pokračovat dokud budeme do atmosféry vypouštět skleníkové plyny. Je velmi těžké si představit, že by jakýkoliv důvěryhodný vědec toto zpochybňoval,“ řekl pro britskou BBC profesor Tim Palmer z Oxfordské univerzity k nové zprávě o klimatické změně Mezivládního panelu pro změnu klimatu OSN

Nová zpráva OSN potvrzuje dramatický rozsah klimatické krize a vyzývá ke koordinované reakci – A2larm
https://a2larm.cz/2021/08/nova-zprava-osn-potvrzuje-dramaticky-rozsah-klimaticke-krize-a-vyzyva-ke-koordinovane-reakci/

Jessica Tierney
@leafwax
The @IPCC_CH report will be released in the early AM tonight. I helped author it, and tomorrow I'll tweet about some of the findings re: #drought which was one of the things I worked on. In the meantime, it's worthwhile knowing a few things about the process
1/ IPCC authors like myself do not get paid! We volunteer. It's a three year commitment and it becomes a deep part of your life. Why do we do it? Because we care about making sure the world knows about what has happened and what will happen if we don't cut emissions.
2/ The text in the IPCC report went through two rounds of public peer review, during which time anyone (I mean anyone!) could read the draft and submit comments. The authors have to respond to *every* comment (there are thousands). #accountability
3/ The IPCC report doesn't have "new" data. Everything in the report is already published in the scientific literature. The report is an "assessment", which means it synthesizes what is out there and decides how well we understand what has happened/will happen
4/ As you'll see tomorrow, the report has a lot of parts. Let's break them down. The meat of the report is made up of 12 chapters and an Atlas. Each chapter has a dozen or so main authors and a list of contributing authors. Let me explain the authorship thing...
5/ The Coordinating Lead Authors (listed first) do what their name implies, they coordinate the production of the chapter, take on a lot of extra admin-style work, and are ultimately responsible for meeting deadlines
6/ The Lead Authors (like me) do a lot of the writing and figure making. In some cases we are responsible for entire subsections within the chapter. We get help though from the Contributing Authors, who we might ask to draft up a paragraph or two about a specific topic
7/ Contributing Authors are not officially part of the IPCC process (drafting, reviewing, etc) but are folks in the community who are specialists and helped by contributing some text or sometimes a figure
8/ Back to the "parts". One step up from the full report is the Technical Summary, which is what it sounds like, a detailed summary of the full report.
9/ Two steps up from the full report is the Summary for Policymakers, which is probably what you will read tomorrow. This is an even more concise summary, and it has to be approved by governments line by line, which is what has been happening in the last two weeks.
10/ So in order of shortest to longest, it goes Summary for Policymakers -> Technical Summary -> Full Report. Don't be afraid to read stuff in the full report! There is good stuff that for brevity didn't make it to the top docs!
11/ Finally, because people are asking about impacts and mitigation, know that the report released tomorrow is just the Working Group I (WGI) report, "The Physical Science Basis". Impacts and mitigation are in WGII and WGIII respectively which are coming out next year
12/ Hope that helps explain things some! Tomorrow there will be a lot of science to digest. fin/

TUHO: A ceska media pokryti asi takhle (cest vyjimce CT24):

“​​It is unequivocal.” Those stark three words are the first in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s new report. The climate crisis is unequivocally caused by human activities and is unequivocally affecting every corner of the planet’s land, air and sea already.

The report, produced by hundreds of the world’s top scientists and signed off by all the world’s governments, concludes that it could get far worse if the slim chance remaining to avert heating above 1.5C is not immediately grasped.

Climate crisis ‘unequivocally’ caused by human activities, says IPCC report | Climate change | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/09/climate-crisis-unequivocally-caused-by-human-activities-says-ipcc-report

TADEAS: Tak na mnoha mistech jihu Italie hori uz ted, takove ty male plaminky, ktere jenom cekaji, na trosku vetsi sucho ..
Fire Map - NASA | LANCE | FIRMS
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:2021-08-08..2021-08-09;l:country-outline;@-14.1,4.9,3z

ups, koukam, ze uz dneska…

tak zejtra prvni varka AR6, tesite se? :)

Three Siberian villages have been evacuated & dozens of homes lost as the region of Yakutia has already set another annual fire emissions record: 505 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent

Germany produces 996 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent in one year

TADEAS: Planetyard...

not in my backyard

Italy and Spain are next: brutal heatwave with near +46 °C will be baking southern Europe as a massive heat dome parks over the Mediterranean as we head into mid-August
https://www.severe-weather.eu/europe-weather/heat-dome-mediterranean-extreme-heatwave-italy-spain-mk/