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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: zrovna sira je zajimava, protoze v lodni doprave mam za to ze probehlo vyrazny odsireni, coz je jeden z tech aerosol masking efektu, tj. odsirujeme, podobne jako budeme elektrifikovat, ale to vede ke zvyseni teploty
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TUHO: IPCC is like Stephensonova romanova zapletka (ruzny narody a skupiny chteji a nechteji strilet siru do ovzdusi) is legit

    The report says that solar geoengineering “may also introduce novel risks for international collaboration and peace”. It continues:

    “Conflicting temperature preferences between countries may lead to counter-geoengineering measures, such as deliberate release of warming agents or destruction of deployment equipment. Game-theoretic models and laboratory experiments indicate a powerful actor or group with a higher preference for SRM may use [aerosol release] to cool the planet beyond what is socially optimal.”
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    Troska opatrneho optimizmu
    We WILL Fix Climate Change!
    https://youtu.be/LxgMdjyw8uw


    Je tam zminena i CR v souvislosti s decouplingem :)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Amy Westervelt
    https://twitter.com/amywestervelt/status/1511029205605093376?s=19

    Sorry but I must note that it seems incredibly problematic that the IPCC chair was previously Exxon's economist, and one of the two Coordinating Lead Authors of the cross-sector chapter is a senior staffer of Saudi Aramco, and the review ed for the energy chapter works for Chevron.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Amy Westerwelt
    https://twitter.com/amywestervelt/status/1511002018185244676?s=19

    I wrote about this @guardian previously, but fossil fuel influence in the IPCC is a huge issue that pretty much gets ignored at the release of every report:

    Our climate solutions are failing - and Big Oil’s fingerprints are all over them | Amy Westervelt | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/07/climate-solutions-big-oil-ipcc-report
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHEFIK: ja ti to vecer rozepisu .]

    jen bych proste podotknul, ze ve svete 2.5-3 stupne, se zmeni opravdu hodne a populace pujde dolu.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    SHEFIK: jeste jsem zapomnel dodat, ze pokud se opravdu bavime o tom regenerativnim pristupu skrze pastvy, tak vysledky studii z USA jsou o 20-30% mensi produkce. pokud to vztahnu globalne na pesimisticky scenar, tak tretina populace upadne do hladomoru, nebo musim plochy na zemi pro pestovani rozsirit o 30%

    a to slo o studii, kde puda, lokace atd. byla vhodna na regenerativni pastvu. nejsem odbornik, ale predpokladam, ze ne vsude je tenhle pristup mozny, pripadne rozdily produkce mohou byt hlubsi
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    PETER_PAN: mohl bys rozvyst jak by to konkretneji vypadalo, pripadne link? jde o regenerativni pristup skrze pastvy co tu Tadeas evangelizuje?

    ... moc mi to nejde do hlavy, pac mame nejakej pristup intenzivniho zemedelstvi, tzn. dnesni pristup by mel byt ten ktery dostane maximumum z plochy (za co nejmene nakladu; pomijim taky dlouhodoby horizont a vycerpavani pudy). pokud pujdeme zpet ke zviratum, tzn, zvirata budou muset resit 'plevel', sazeni, sklizeni a nejakou maintenance (pesticidy, herbicidy atd.)

    .. pritom pokud uvazuju samotna zvirata, napr. dobytek pro orbu (o konich moc nevim), mam na produkci jednoho kg ziveho masa 15.000 litru vody a vzhledem k tomu, ze to zvire pak neporazim (minimalne ne po dobu kdy bude fungovat). urcite to nebude 1 traktor : 1 vul

    ... u dobytka musim zohlednit produkci metanu a co2 (opet by bylo fajn srovnani fosil vs. zvirata, co produkuji sklenikove plyny celorocne)

    ... a pak posledni, nemene vyznamna vec a tou je plocha:
    a) musim je denne krmit - zelenou pici treba 40-60 kg denne (prosim o opravu pokud spatne interpretuju, zdrojovy link nize), budu potrebovat vyrazne vetsi plochy nez dosud
    b) predpokladam, ze na zasety plose je nechat past nemuzu
    c) predpokladam, ze pri orani pomoci zvirat nedosahnu stejne presnosti seti (male vzdalenosti), jako s traktorem, tedy hektarova produkce mi bude klesat
    d) nemohu je nechat past v zime, tzn. pres leto musi byt vyrazne vetsi nadprodukce pro udrzbu tehle novych zvirat oproti soucasnemu intenzivnimu zemedelstvi

    je to fyzicky vubec proveditelne, abychom si udrzeli alespon ten objem potravy co aktualne mame a nepribyvalo hladomoru? treba se pletu, ale imho tohle neni cesta kupredu.

    (https://www.zootechnika.cz/clanky/chov-skotu/krmiva-a-krmeni-skotu/zaklady-vyzivy-skotu.html)

    TADEAS: to diky tve osvete chapu a chapu, ze tohle davalo smysl, kdyz nas bylo na planete 100.000, ale pro 8 miliard?

    mj. to chlazeni, mrazeni, suseni a transport jako output budes muset resit stejne, v ramci soucasne civilizace / kulturniho nastaveni vetsiny populace.

    jinak sustainable nitrogen uz jsem linkoval
    Clean Hydrogen as A Major Enabler for Making Carbon-Free Ammonia and Fertilizers - The European Files
    https://www.europeanfiles.eu/climate/clean-hydrogen-as-a-major-enabler-for-making-carbon-free-ammonia-and-fertilizers
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    FB-IMG-1649146799881
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Bill McKibben

    Basic IPCC formula, in order
    1) build massive amounts of (now cheap) sun and wind
    2) Electrify everything to run on it
    3) Conservation and efficiency
    4) Research the hell out of the last hard stuff (planes, cement, etc)
    5) Stop cutting down trees for cows (or anything else)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHEFIK: nevim, nemluvim o moralnim ani idealnim :)

    proste pokud nebudes mit diesel a soucastky do stroju, tak zacnes masivne vyuzivat zvirata (a lidi), protoze to je zpusob, jakym v ekosystemu smerujes energii. neindustrialni zemedelstvi je zalozeny na transformacich skrz houby, mikroby, rostliny, zvirata...

    ta ciste synteticka/neekosystemova cesta je mozna v principu.

    oddelit se od fosilnich zdroju zahrnuje i synteticky hnojiva, pesticidy, nejen energii do stroju (vyuzivanejch, ne nutne, ale vetsinove, k destrukci pudy).

    a to nezahrnuje vsechno to chlazeni, mrazeni, suseni, zprocesovani, transport, etc.
    PETER_PAN
    PETER_PAN --- ---
    SHEFIK: Veris, ze jsme aktualne schopni nahradit diesel v ekosystemu zviraty, aniz by to melo dopad na objem rocni produkce?
    Absolune bez problemu, na skale cca 15-20 let transformace a v dusledku za velmi nizkou cenu.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Summary novyho IPCC reportu… Jak sesekat emise? Imho nejdulezitejsi dokument nasi geneerace. Tak cteme ,))

    https://twitter.com/gernotwagner/status/1511002088670736385?s=21
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: konflikt moralnich idealu X reality soucasne udrzitelnosti

    Idealni moralni reseni neni v dosahu a nebude dokud nedobehne transformace energetiky

    Veris, ze jsme aktualne schopni nahradit diesel v ekosystemu zviraty, aniz by to melo dopad na objem rocni produkce? (Naklady by sly nahoru urcite predpokladam, pac obhospodarovat jedno zvire je casove narocnejsi nez traktor)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    fight of the century:

    klima ochranci - konec dieselu!
    klima ochranci - konec vyuzivani zvirat!

    nicmene realita je, ze konec dieselu znamena vyssi miru vyuzivani zvirat -v ekosystemu-. so sad ,)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    domino / stress test

    Farmers on the Brink - Doomberg
    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink?s=r

    The tempest caused by the European energy disaster has merged with the hurricane of consequences flowing from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, forming the genesis of a generational crisis in food that will leave few unaffected. While we’ve been warning about just such a scenario for some time, after spending the past two weeks traveling across the US Midwest and conferring with our contacts in the agricultural sector, even we are a little spooked by what we’ve learned. In a financial crash, the correlation between all asset classes converges to one. The coming crash in global food supply will be driven by a similar phenomenon across virtually every input into farming – they are all spiking to historic highs simultaneously, supply availability is diminishing across the spectrum, and the time to reverse the worst of the upcoming consequences is rapidly running short.

    Other than that, things are great.

    We begin with the price of fertilizer, which has been soaring to record highs across the globe. Key sources of nitrogen, potassium, and phosphorous – important inputs into soil fertility, crop yield, and plant maintenance – have all gone vertical. Ammonia is derived directly from natural gas, and the price of natural gas outside of the US has gone vertical. It's no surprise that the price of ammonia has tripled over the past twelve months. Belarus is the third-largest supplier of potash in the world and its state-owned miner, Belaruskali, declared force majeure after sanctions were imposed by the US and Europe. The number two supplier of potash globally? Russia. Perhaps front-running the Russian move on Ukraine, China halted phosphate exports last fall in an effort to ensure adequate domestic supply

    ...

    Glyphosate is effectively little more than an elegantly modified fertilizer, containing both phosphorous and nitrogen. It is derived from similar starting materials – including ammonia – and, as such, its price has soared amid chronic supply shortages. This has caused the price of other herbicides to rise as farmers desperately seek substitutes

    ...

    Diesel is another significant input into farming, and it too is facing a global supply crunch. Javier Blas, an energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg: global diesel consumption surged to a fresh all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2021. The boom reflects the lopsided Covid economic recovery, with transportation demand spiking to ease supply-chain messes.

    European refineries have struggled to match this revival in demand. One key reason is pricey natural gas. Refineries use gas to produce hydrogen, which they then use to remove sulphur from diesel. The spike in gas prices in late 2021 made that process prohibitively expensive, cutting diesel output.”

    ...

    As expensive as it is to fuel the field equipment needed to farm, keeping them operational at all is becoming an ever-growing challenge. The same chip shortage constraining automobile production has struck the farming equipment industry, making new equipment and spare parts harder to come by.

    ...

    the US exits the winter of 2021-2022 with concerningly low levels of propane inventory, well-below typical averages for this time of year: What does propane supply have to do with farming? Grain drying
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Tak doufam, ze se sem zacnou sypat vytahy z nove zpravy IPCC
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    „Nová zpráva Mezivládního panelu pro změnu klimatu je výčtem nedodržených klimatických slibů. Je to spis plný hanby, zaznamenávající prázdné sliby, které nás pevně usazují na cestu ke světu, ve kterém se nedá žít,“ uvedl generální tajemník OSN António Guterres
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    FB-IMG-1649099596243
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    not unrelated

    Úřady práce se hroutí. Řeší dopady energetické krize i uprchlíky – A2larm
    https://a2larm.cz/2022/04/urady-prace-se-hrouti-resi-dopady-energeticke-krize-i-uprchliky/
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    "Věda mluví jasně. Abychom udrželi limit 1,5 stupně oteplení dohodnutý v Paříži živý, musíme v tomto desetiletí snížit globální emise o 45 procent.
    Současné klimatické závazky by ale znamenaly 14procentní nárůst. A většina hlavních znečišťovatelů ani nepodniká kroky potřebné ke splnění i těch nedostatečných slibů."
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam