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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: lip bych to nerek. A protoze vesmir v dusledku nenamodelujes, pac kazdej model je urcity zjednoduseni komplexity, muzeme tak akorat delat high-level odhady pro statisticky vyznamny parametry.

    ...ktery prestavaj platit pri dosazeni jakohokoliv tipping pointu daneho systemu :) ...pro ktery navic ani nemame historicke data a nevime jak se bude system chovat dal a jestli se vyznamnost parametru nezmeni.

    Jinak systemova teorie rika, ze system (resp. model systemu) je jakakoliv definovana skupina parametru, kterou chceme sledovat. Vstupy a vystupy vicemene redukujeme na interakci se systemem, ale ne jako vlastni system podlehajici zmenam.

    ...

    Zahrnout vse do systemu realnyho sveta, kde vse interaguje se vsim je vicemene zacarovanej kruh (aktualne v case i nespocitatelnej) a klima se mezitim odporouci. Je proste nutna mira nejakeho zjednoduseni.

    To co je nejprinosnejsi, je nezanaset do zjednodusenejch modelu parametry, ktery nejsou dulezity/relevantni (alespon ne v danej moment/skale/prostoru) nebo z pohledu logiky veci irelevantni (Nordhaus - vztah HDPxTeplota). Na tehle jednoduchejch modelech uz se da pak iterativne stavet a ucit se je komponovat do nejakyho holistickyho celku i presto, ze to nebude perfektni ekvilibrium, ale konstantne suboptimum. Nicmene i priroda jede konstante v suboptimech, lokalne (prostorove i casove) dokonce i v extremech a i tak umoznuje/umoznila dlouhodobe podminky zivota na zemi.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: jinak imho jsme zatim nedospeli k dostatecne obecnymu ramci pro tyhle studie samotny - pak to konci vyrokama jako 'social context rather than the merits of any one particular management regime', ze vlastne nelze urcit, 'cim to je', situace je prilis fluidni, atp :)

    ... coz je vysledek prilis reduktivniho, malo komplexsniho pohledu. museli by, a to strasne nechtej, asi, prijmout tu integritu tech socialnich, financnich, biologickejch, klimatickejch procesu - a mit metriky a analyticky nastroje pro vsechny z nich, protoze svete div se, fakt nejsou oddelitelny. takze nejaky konstatovani o nejasnosti, socialnim kontextu, atp. jsou vyjadrenim limitu toho jak tu problematiku vubec zkoumame.

    zakladni 'objekt zkoumani' je 'system', sestavajici se ze svejch lidskejch socialnich, financnich, energeticko-materialovejch aspektu, z biologickejch a klimatickejch aspektu. pro analyzu toho, kdo/kteri managuji system je potreba identifikovat, v jakem operuji paradigmatu, tj. identifikovat jejich pracovni teorii a jeji koncepty - ktere se vztauji ke vsem aspektum toho systemu. potom vzit ty nejlepsi metriky co mame ze sve vlastni teorie celeho systemu [teorie paradigmatů managementu, teorie ekosystemu (vc. pudy), teorie klimatu] a mapovat dusledky tech ruznych managementů na ostatni prvky systemu.



    'There is an important difference between arguing that good adaptive management can improve soil quality and increase soil organic matter – and concluding that it offers the solution to our climate crisis.'

    rika se, ze ten problem tkvi prave v tom -managementu- ... konkretni techniky a praktiky [tj. napr. 'adaptive grazing', ne 'management', jak chybne pisou] jsou podrazene tomu managementu, jehoz zasadni komponent je praktika toho, jakym zpusobem si system nastavuje sve seberegulacni procesy
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHEFIK: ja fakt nevim. jedna z veci, u kterejch se fakt snazim proniknout do hloubky je interakce pudy, bylozravcu a lidi ...

    ten text toho prehledu je dobrej, ale

    'overgrazing – defined here as grazing at stocking densities higher than the land can support'

    a

    'Where soils are over-grazed, reducing the grazing pressure – including by removing the animals altogether if necessary until the vegetation recovers – can help'

    prekonana definice/teorie - 'overgrazing' nesouvisi s pocty zvirat, ale casem

    ad 'here defined' - zajimavy, ze to definujou, misto aby to definovali opet jako jeden specifickej pristup, resp. koncept prislusici nejaky [v dusledcich degenerativni] teorii pastvy - ie kde je studie srovnavajici dusledky aplikace techle teorii?



    ad 'The Savory Institute hides the very detailed description of the specific practices involved behind a paywall' - lol, muzou si to koupit na amazonu - prirucka s explicitnima popisama vseho a pracovni sesity k tomu :D je to min za paywallem nez kazdej druhej vedeckej clanek, kterejma se to tam hemzi

    ....

    ramcove souhlas:

    it is clear is that the extremely ambitious claims its proponents make are dangerously misleading. The Institute claims that widespread application of its methods would lead to quite massive removals of carbon from the atmosphere – some 500 billion tonnes over 40 years. This would be enough, as it says,125,126,127 to ‘reverse climate change’ since about 555 billion tonnes carbon (or 2035 tonnes CO2) have been released into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution. The Nordborg review128dismantles this claim extremely effectively and its conclusions are worth summarising here. First, Nordborg points out that the sequestration rate of 2.5 t C/ha/yr is substantially higher than all other peer-reviewed estimates (see Section 3.5 below). Second, the amount of grassland to which this is applied, 5 billion hectares, is considerably greater than most estimates of the area of grasslands that can be defined even loosely as grazing lands – Nordborg cites the estimate provided in the IPCC’s 2000 report on land use change, of 3.5 billion hectares.129,130 Third, it is vanishingly unlikely that this constant high sequestration rate could be maintained for 40 years since the rate of accrual diminishes over time as soils approach carbon equilibrium. Finally, Savory does not take into account the significant increases in methane and nitrous oxide that would result from higher livestock numbers.In many ways, the regenerative approach and its variants can also be seen as a socialmovement, appealing to people who are dissatisfied with conventional practices. Those attracted are often unusually motivated by considerations that go beyond the monetary, and tend to embrace the nuanced approach that is required. Emphasis is placed on community support, knowledge exchange, peer to peer learning and the replacement of inputs with knowledge.131,132,133,134 While these motivations are clearly laudable, their effectiveness serves to underline the importance of the social context ather than the merits of any one particular management regime. Regenerative grazing, applied well and by motivated farmers, could well benefit soils, build organic carbon matter and as such perhaps help sequester some carbon. However the overall gains are likely to be modest, are not exclusive to rotational practices, and will be time limited – and the problem of the other greenhouse gases, methane and nitrous oxide – do not go away. There is an important difference between arguing that good adaptive management can improve soil quality and increase soil organic matter – and concluding that it offers the solution to our climate crisis.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TUHO: asi nemam motivaci to cist momentalne, ta studie co odkazuje viz dole shefik je zajimava, tu jsem se jal studovat :) az udelam zas par kolecek a na neco prijdu, dam report .)

    ja bych si hrozne pral, aby tyhle lidi meli k dispozici skutecnej produkcni ekosystme a byli nuceny delat ty kratkodoby a dlouhodoby management rozhodnuti, aby fakt vstoupili do hry :)
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TADEAS:
    "unless I've missed something" - neco si nasel? Ja nemam moc silu prochazet ty zdroje, ktery tam daval. Ale Mobiot obvykle dela svoje domaci ukoly vetsinou docela poctive.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: ted si jejsem jistej, ty s nim souhlasis?

    Imho je nejpodstatnejsi tohle


    ix. Claims about carbon storage in pasture have been hugely exaggerated and tend to rely on junk science. This study found no case of pasture absorbing more than 60% of the greenhouse gases the livestock produce: the system doesn’t even wash its own face.
    https://t.co/vqL2Bl8IiM


    Ale nic z toho co rika porad nevylucuje, ze dobytek neni soucasti celkovyho mixu reseni. Pro me je zasadni co sem videl v Carbon cowboys, kdy dobytek zabranuje desertifikaci (cimz udrzuje biodiverzitu/vodu v krajine) a pri nejakym rozumnym managementu ty hranice 'pouste' muze i posunovat
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    Spotify
    https://open.spotify.com/show/1PLGK5tF4WiPUq83yIQQVI?si=qVQQbT7_TKmNgOXFk8K0Dw

    Obnovitelne.cz má podcast, ještě jsem neslyšel, ale třeba někoho zaujme
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Kdybyste meli chvili, poprosil bych o vyplneni kratkeho dotazniku o klikma dezinformacich. DIk

    O čem se málo mluví v klimatických dezinformacích
    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1jo9nUjRrbV00IOkwz7Rm7STB94vMXlghyPQw9dc70rE/edit
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    to nemuzeme dopustit!

    People in US and UK face huge financial hit if fossil fuels lose value, study shows | Fossil fuels | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/26/people-in-us-and-uk-face-huge-financial-hit-if-fossil-fuels-lose-value-study-shows
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    300 days of sandstorms a year by 2050

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    urodna mezopotamie

    Ninth sandstorm in less than two months shuts down much of Iraq | Iraq | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/24/ninth-sandstorm-in-less-than-two-months-shuts-down-much-of-iraq

    Iraq is ranked as one of the world’s five most vulnerable nations to climate change and desertification.

    The environment ministry has warned that over the next two decades Iraq could endure an average of 272 days of sandstorms a year, rising to above 300 by 2050.

    Iraq’s previous two sandstorms sent nearly 10,000 people to hospital with respiratory problems and killed one person.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    jsem zvedav kam se posunul ,)

    Monbiot
    https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1529704654099165185?s=19

    It’s publication day! In researching Regenesis, I found hope where hope seemed absent. I stumbled across astonishing stories and unimagined possibilities. I pieced together what I see as a plausible future for humanity and the wonderful life with which we share this planet.

    Regenesis
    https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/317/317018/regenesis/9780241447642.html
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Antonio Guterres
    https://twitter.com/antonioguterres/status/1529428314531708929?s=19

    My message to graduates as they embark on their professional careers:

    Don’t work for climate-wreckers.

    Use your talents to drive us towards a renewable future.

    We all have a responsibility not to squander our skills, but to use them in a responsible and constructive way.
    https://twitter.com/antonioguterres/status/1529428314531708929/video/1
    https://t.co/qPwZuQyN8o
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    nejaky relativne dobry zpravy. rychly prirustek biomassy po pozarech v australii. chapu-li to spravne, tak uvilnenej uhlik uz by mel byt zpatky v biomase?

    Here, we analyzed space-borne optical, thermal, and microwave images to assess changes in the structure and function of vegetation using four vegetation indices (VIs), leaf area index (LAI), solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), gross primary production (GPP), and aboveground biomass (AGB). We found that all eight variables show large losses in 2019, driven by fires and climate (drought and high temperature), but large gains in 2020, resulting from the high resilience of most trees to fire and rapid growth of understory vegetation under wet condition in 2020. In 2019, the forest area has an AGB loss of 0.20 Pg C, which is ~15% of the pre-fire AGB. Attribution analyses showed that both fire and climate (prior and co-occurring severe drought and record high temperatures) are responsible for the AGB loss in 2019, approximately 0.09 Pg C (fire) and 0.11 Pg C (climate), respectively. In 2020, the forest area has a total AGB gain of 0.26 Pg C, composed of 0.22 Pg C from fire-affected forest area and 0.04 Pg C from fire-unaffected forest area. Fire-adapted Eucalyptus forests and above-average annual precipitation in 2020 brought by a moderate La Niña drove the recovery of vegetation cover, productivity, and AGB.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0034425722002012
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    SHEFIK: organické carbon capture podporuju asi všichni, ideální by mi přišla renesance dřeva jako stavebního materiálu. Ale jsem skeptický k industriálnímu carbon capture. Kapacita by se musela zvýšit spíš milionkrát, než tisíckrát...
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Sidetopic - population degrowth expected

    Subscribe to read | Financial Times
    https://www.ft.com/content/8244af52-26ba-4676-961a-c57f1d4892e8

    Growing complacency about COVID-19 and politicization of the pandemic response will cost lives as the world is hit by new waves of the virus in the coming months, Pfizer’s chief executive has warned.

    Albert Bourla said people were growing “tired” of the measures introduced to slow the spread of the virus, while “politicians want to claim victory.” Compliance with authorities’ requests for people to get booster shots would fall even among those who are already vaccinated, he predicted.

    This, combined with waning immunity from previous infections and vaccinations, is likely to lead to “constant waves” of COVID variants and deaths, he said.
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    iba taka perlicka, mapa poziarov v US

    National Fire Situational Awareness
    https://maps.nwcg.gov/sa/#/%3F/%3F/34.3557/-102.9812/7
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Mgr. Petr Štěpánek, Ph.D., Klimatická změna v České republice
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6Z14tEKga8
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    How China Plans to Win the Future of Energy
    https://youtu.be/b1LQSezKxnA
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Bohuzel pro me paywall

    Farmers in England are starting to bury a charcoal-like material in their fields to see if it could offer a new large-scale way of putting the brakes on climate change.
    Biochar is the carbon-rich material left over from burning wood and other biomass at high temperatures in an oxygen-free environment. Most of its use today is at the small scale, such as gardeners using it as a fertiliser.

    Carbon capture: Farmers in the UK will bury burnt wood in fields to capture CO2 | New Scientist
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2321288-farmers-in-england-will-bury-burnt-wood-in-fields-to-capture-co2/
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