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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    A window of opportunity for methane to slip by nature's filters -- ScienceDaily
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/07/220728143017.htm

    In a new study, just published in Communications Earth and Environment, Stranne and colleagues from Stockholm University and Linnaeus University have combined a new model of the biological behaviour and vertical movements of this microbial filter with existing models of seafloor sediments' physical behaviour. The physical parts of the model include processes such as how cracks form and methane can move up thorough the sediment after methane hydrates melt.

    Christian Stranne explains: "Imagine that the amount of methane rising through the sediment suddenly increases, as might happen if methane hydrate begins to melt faster. It can take decades for the filter to adjust itself to consume methane at the new rate. Our new study shows that during the time that the filter is not reestablished, substantial methane can leak past the filter, and into the ocean water."

    Despite this "window of opportunity," methane from melting hydrates that reaches the seawater faces further methane-destroying processes. These processes make it nearly impossible for substantial methane from methane hydrate melting to reach the atmosphere. However, methods as demonstrated in this study can be applied to other regions where seafloor-released methane is much shallower and is more likely to reach the atmosphere, such as the Arctic continental shelves, according to Christian Stranne.

    "Methane hydrates are a massive storehouse of carbon, so it remains important to understand how they interact with ocean changes, and potentially, the atmosphere, over long and, in the case of our study, rather short timescales. We now know that there is indeed a possible process for melting methane hydrates to temporarily bypass what was previously thought to be a strong filter in the sediment," says Christian Stranne.

    The warming rate is, however, of great importance: "Our results suggest that if our oceans warm at a pace significantly lower than 1 °C per 100 years, the filter can keep up with the pace and remain highly efficient. Unfortunately, we see higher warming rates than that in some of our oceans."
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    KEB: "Vzdání se benzínu a nafty by mělo efekt pouze v případě, že by Evropská unie nadále nakupovala ropu a následně ji skladovala v nádržích. To by se týkalo i plynu a černého uhlí.".

    No ano. Ideální by bylo právě koupit ty zásoby v té formě, že by rovnou zůstaly nevytěžené pod zemí. Což se ale dělá blbě, protože to se může tvářit kdekdo, že chce být placený za to, že netěží ropu či uhlí, že jo :-) (protože se blbě dokazuje, že sice má, ale netěží)

    Tyhle moudra opomíjejí jednu věc: to, jak budou vypadat Evropa, budou nakonec otrocky napodobovat rozvojové země. Různé zkresleně, dříve nebo později. Ale napodobovat to budou. A zrovna napodobení elektromobility nakonec poptávku po ropě sníží a poptávku po lokálních zdrojích elektřiny z OZE zvýší. Takže kroky, co děláme v Evropě, je nutné hodnotit nejen z hlediska jejich přímého dopadu - ale i z hlediska toho, že budou nejspíš napodobovány (a to někdy i slepě)
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    TADEAS: jak znám naše chrabré úředníky, tak v srpnu šalamounsky na těch 19° nastavěj klimatizaci, aby měli splněnou vyhlášku :-)
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    Špičkový německý ekonom Sinn tvrdí: Evropská unie bez spalovacích aut emise CO2 nesníží - Ekonomický deník
    https://ekonomickydenik.cz/spickovy-nemecky-ekonom-sinn-tvrdi-evropska-unie-bez-spalovacich-aut-emise-co2-nesnizi/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    kvuli klimatu ale ne

    EU se dohodla, jak sníží spotřebu ruského plynu. Například ve veřejných budovách se bude méně topit | Hospodářské noviny (HN.cz)
    https://archiv.hn.cz/c1-67097240-eu-se-dohodla-jak-snizi-spotrebu-ruskeho-plynu-kompromis-umoznily-vyjimky

    to spojeni, ze klimaticka destabilizace je primo spojena s provozovanim civilizacni energeticky infrastruktury proste nejde pochopit
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    YMLADRIS: no pravdepodobne bysme ted mluvili nemecky/rusky?
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    uvazuju, jak by se svet vyvijel jinak, kdyby zamorske kolonie, co vyhlasily samostatnost, navzdy zustaly zemedelskou zemi, tj v USA by nebyla ropa

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    It’s official, 5% of new cars sold in the US are electric! Why is this number important? Once new technologies take up 5% of the market, the product becomes more mainstream, and demand grows at a faster rate.
    “[T]he US joined Europe and China — collectively the three largest car markets — in moving beyond the 5% tipping point. If the US follows the trend established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by the end of 2025. That would be a year or two ahead of most major forecasts.”
    The is great news! With the popularity of EVs on the rise, we can soon leave gas-powered vehicles behind.

    Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-09/us-electric-car-sales-reach-key-milestone
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    L4MA: opakuj po me

    the fascists are going to win the elections
    they're going to have us building walls
    they're going to send your children off to slaughter in war
    enter that
    despair
    that self-contempt
    that confusion
    that feeling of being lost

    TADEAS
    L4MA
    L4MA --- ---
    TADEAS: bez "Nazi Germany holocaust jews" by to nebylo vonco... :D
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    Střílet síru do atmosféry je levné
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    don't feel doomish, but roger this hallam


    Roger Hallam
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1553133892860878848.html

    It is a week since the highest temperatures in thousands of years hit the UK.

    It is now an objective reality that this civilisation will collapse at some point in the early 2030s. Long tail possibilities are the late 2020’s and the late 2030’s on the other side.

    Why? Forget global averages 1.5C, 2C – that’s all political distraction. What will bring down the system is physical and biological HARD STOPS and the compounding secondary effects cascading through the system.

    These are objective. Like putting a bullet through someone’s brain. They die. They have nothing to do with social predictions – i.e. complex systems. This is Newtonian cause and effect.

    The key is to look at extreme weather events over the next 20 years. The most important stats are the progressions of the recent past projected into the near future. Record high temperatures are going up by approximately .5C a year e.g. 2019 – 38C 2022 40C in the UK.

    We can do a linear projection therefore that the UK will hit up to 45C heat by 2030 and 50C by 2040 – this is the cool temperate zone scenario.

    Project that onto the warm temperate areas where it is now 45C to 50C (Portugal 47C, Scilly 49C), and we can project up to 55C by 2030 and 60C by 2040. In tropical areas where the present limit is around 55C at present we are looking at 60C by 2030 and 65C by 2040.

    Of course there are good reasons to argue that the yearly average increases will be exponential, not linear, particularly as the #Arctic ice will be melted in the summer around 2030/35 according to peer reviewed papers. These then are conservative projections.

    Moving up the normal distribution curve, let’s say each zone will experience 30 plus days of temperatures around 5C less than the record high temperature each year.

    Okay go and do the maths on the following hard stops – these have come from news stories over the past few weeks:

    - You cannot fly a plane at temperatures over 48C
    - You die within 6 hours at humid temperatures of 50C
    - Major rivers dry up at 40C – (think transport routes)
    - Internet centres cannot function over 35C
    - Roads, runways, railway tracks and wiring melt at 40C
    - Most food crops cannot grow and die at temperatures over 30C

    Add in other predictions from the past few years:

    - Vietnam will be periodically 90% under water within decades (think rice production)
    - Indian wheat production will be 30% down by 2030
    - The US costal property price bubble will burst at some point in the mid to late 2020s
    - 20% of Australian forest on average will burn down by 2040
    - 30% of London houses will be subsiding by mid century
    - Lakes in the US West will be empty by the late 2020’s
    - The Amazon will pass the 20-25% cut down tipping point into collapse within the next 10 years
    - 20% plus, the US western regions will be burning each year by the mid 2030s.

    Some of these predictions are messy and certainty fetish scientists, co-opted by the system, will find holes in them like holocaust deniers find holes in the assessment that 6 million jews died in Nazi Germany (maybe it was 5.5?).

    These lines of argument have nothing to do with clear cool risk analysis and everything to do with another determinism: the psychological literature shows that most people cannot accept what they do not like.

    By the 2030’s this civilisation will be gone, in the sense that regimes in the tropics will have collapsed, and those in warm and cold temperate zones will have become either right wing or left wing state socialist enterprises.

    This state socialism has nothing to do with politics – it is what happens in societies facing existential breakdown.


    Carbon rationing and then rationing of everything else is inevitable. Functional regimes will be putting all their surplus resources into geo engineering. Disfunctional ones will be collapsing into various cults of nihilism and thus disintegration.

    If there is a future, it will now be post-nature. That is a future where the whole geo-physical system is controlled by human technologies – just as happened with agriculture systems over the past half century. We are prisoners of our technologies.


    There is a research job here for some people to collect all the predictions and do projections in a more systematic way – get in touch with me if you can do this.

    The absolute imperative now is #CivilResistance to ensure that the transition to what comes next is democratic and egalitarian rather than fascist and genocidal.

    If we fail, our young people will experience terrible deaths before they reach middle age. Face your responsibilities at this time.
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    Las Vegas, NM declares emergency, with less than 50 days of clean water supply left
    Wildfires earlier this year contaminated the city's only water supply.

    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    TADEAS: tohle mi pripomnelo starej dokument, kde se bavili s potapecema, co se potapeli treba pred 60 lety a dnes, ze se to neda absolutne porovnat, ze to co je dnes ve vode, je spis poust, ale kdyz tam prijede turista, tak je z toho nadsenej jak je to krasny, pac nema tuseni jak to vypadalo driv ...

    imho timhle: "Shifting Baseline Syndrome" trpime uplne vsichni ....
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    #positive

    Sorry, mesic stary, ale hodnota btc he plus minus stejna

    S poklesem ceny Bitcoinu klesla o 36 % i spotřeba elektřiny pro jeho těžbu | Svět hardware
    https://www.svethardware.cz/s-poklesem-ceny-bitcoinu-klesla-o-36-i-spotreba-elektriny-pro-jeho-tezbu/58038

    Výše uvedená čísla jsou pochopitelně odhady a studie předpokládá, že nynější odběr je někde mezi 5,74 a 17,99 GW, oněch 10,31 GW je pak nejpravděpodobnější odhad.

    Když si to spočítáme, vychází to i po tomto výrazném pádu na roční odběr 90,34 TWh, což překračuje spotřebu celé ČR. Pokud bychom to měli přepočítat na osobní elektromobily, pak by to bylo zhruba 30 milionů vozů (tedy osobní vozový park 5 ČR).
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Are You Suffering From Shifting Baseline Syndrome?  | Earth.Org
    https://earth.org/shifting-baseline-syndrome/

    On an individual level, SBS has increased our tolerance to environmental degradation, including wildlife population decline, increased pollution and loss of natural habitats. This is because people will evaluate the severity of environmental degradation by referencing it back to their own cognitive baseline. In the UK, George Monbiot summarises the state of conservation, saying, “conservation in this country has become indistinguishable from destruction because what we’re conserving is an ecocidal system of sheep ranching. Sheep eat everything, and as a result, there’s no birds, no insects. We’ve lost almost everything, and yet we regard that as normal and natural.” In the UK people are actively conserving ecologically desolate ecosystems as they have no reference to past British wilderness.

    At a societal level, this unawareness of past environmental conditions or current rates of degradation has implications for policymakers. For example, in the UK, the Environment Act of 1995 (the original legislation for National Parks was introduced in 1949) revised the legislation stating the statutory purpose for National Parks. Their main goal is to ‘conserve and enhance the natural beauty, wildlife and cultural heritage’. Those who introduced this legislation originally had a perception of ‘natural beauty, wildlife, and cultural heritage’, and so current National Park conservation practise is driven by a static perception, despite itself studying a subject of constant dynamism. When National Parks were originally established they were characterised by traditional agriculture. While this may seem insignificant the inclusion of ‘cultural heritage’ protects agriculture as part of the landscape, despite its environmental impact. Therefore the conservation approach in these areas can be described as unambitious as they maintain what is simply there or set targets that are not inclusive of historical data and trends. However, people are satisfied because the landscape looks the same as when the legislation was introduced
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Carl Sagan testifying before Congress in 1985 on climate change
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp-WiNXH6hI
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: In a 1993 study on Soviet climate science, US scientists found that “the Soviets were among the leaders […] in the 1960s” in developing theoretical models of complex systems such as atmospheric circulation (Ellingson et al. 1993, p. I-4). In the early 1970s, US-Geographer Paul E. Lydolph (Lydolph, 1971, p. 637) concluded that climatology “has been developed to such a degree in the Soviet Union that it warrants a special study” and estimating that “perhaps half of the climatological literature published in the world” was “written by Soviet climatologists”. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, Soviet climatologists’ achievements in general climatology, radiation, heat balance and agroclimatology made them attractive partners in international collaborations, such as the 1972 bilateral US-USSR agreement on scientific cooperation in environmental protection (Doose 2021). Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, their expertise did not keep pace with international climate science, and they somewhat disappeared from the global climate science scene, as witnessed by the rejection of their methodology in the first assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in 1990. They only started to regain ground in the early 2000s.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: Jeste neco kontextu ke klimatickym modelum, studene valce a Sovetskemu svazu

    Climate models are what governments, experts and societies base their decisions on future climate action on. To show how different models were used to explain climatic changes and to project future climates before the emergence of a global consensus on the validity of general circulation models, this article focuses on the attempt of Soviet climatologists and their government to push for their climate model to be acknowledged by the international climate science community. It argues that Soviet climate sciences as well as their interpretations of the climate of the twenty-first century were products of the Cold War, and that the systematic lack of access to high-speed computers forced Soviet climatologists to use simpler climate reconstructions as analogues, with far-reaching consequences for climate sciences in post-Soviet Russia. By juxtaposing the history of Soviet climate modelling with the early history of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, which rejected the Soviet model, the article sheds light on the relationship of science and politics. The findings are based on archival and print material as well as on interviews.

    Modelling the future: climate change research in Russia during the late Cold War and beyond, 1970s–2000 | SpringerLink
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-022-03315-0
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