Researchers have used deep learning to model more precisely than ever before how ice crystals form in the atmosphere. Their paper, published this week in PNAS, hints at the potential to significantly increase the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting.

The researchers used deep learning to predict how atoms and molecules behave. First, models were trained on small-scale simulations of 64 water molecules to help them predict how electrons in atoms interact. The models then replicated those interactions on a larger scale, with more atoms and molecules. It’s this ability to precisely simulate electron interactions that allowed the team to accurately predict physical and chemical behavior.

“The properties of matter emerge from how electrons behave,” says Pablo Piaggi, a research fellow at Princeton University and the lead author on the study. “Simulating explicitly what happens at that level is a way to capture much more rich physical phenomena.”

Deep learning can almost perfectly predict how ice forms | MIT Technology Review
https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/08/11/1057623/deep-learning-predicts-ice-formation/

3 Grad mehr | oekom verlag
https://www.oekom.de/buch/3-grad-mehr-9783962383695

Eine kleine Rezension zum Buch "3 Grad mehr. Ein Blick in die drohende Heißzeit und wie uns die Natur helfen kann, sie zu verhindern" - gUG Umweltschutz und Lebenshilfe
https://www.umweltschutz-und-lebenshilfe.de/eine-kleine-rezension-zum-buch-3-grad-mehr-ein-blick-in-die-drohende-heisszeit-und-wie-uns-die-natur-helfen-kann-sie-zu-verhindern/

The book describes relentlessly what an emerging 3 degree warmer world looks like. It describes the resulting weather, biodiversity, agriculture, the consequences of flight and economic risks. But it also describes many nature-based solutions as to how a 3 degree warmer world could still be prevented.

In the "Call to Action" the book deals with (possible) social coexistence in Germany, as well as with possible solutions, financing possibilities and the power of civil society.
The editor of the book, Klaus Wiegandt, writes on page 289 under the title: “People have to know what to expect! Solution approaches, their affordability and the power of civil society”:

“In this world, where we will be dealing with a radicalization of weather patterns and with temperatures that can even be up to 6 degrees higher on average over land areas, we have to reckon with serious consequences for global agriculture, with massive damage to global infrastructure and significant impairment or even destruction of large ecosystems.
The majority of people will be affected by unprecedented restrictions on their living and survival conditions, countless will lose their lives. South of the Sahara uninhabitable regions will arise and millions of people will be forced to migrate, as "climate refugees" they will mainly target Europe. Unlike today, the Mediterranean region will not be a new home for them, increasing dryness and drought will also lead to desertification there”.

At the same time, the climate crisis is causing a massive biodiversity crisis. Particularly interesting are passages in the work on the flight of many species (flora & fauna) to the (cooler) north or to (cooler) heights:

“In the UK, of nearly 330 animal species being studied, 275 have migrated north at a rate of 14 to 25 kilometers per decade. These include representatives of a wide variety of animal groups, from mammals, birds and fish to spiders, butterflies, dragonflies and centipedes. Within a few decades, the poleward boundaries of their ranges have shifted northward by up to 60 kilometers” (p. 32).

And: "Since 1970, the average temperatures in the Swiss Alps have risen by 0.36 degrees Celsius per decade, at the same time the upper limit of the occurrence of various animal species has moved uphill by 47 to a maximum of 91 meters per decade. The plants are 17 to 40 meters. However, because the isotherms have shifted by up to 71 meters, these significant changes in most plant and animal species are insufficient to keep pace with rising temperatures (pp. 33-34).

Or the so-called “postponed phenologies” can be read in the book:

“For Bavaria, these long-term records show that the hazel blossom was 23 days earlier as a result of the rising temperatures between 1961 and 20210 (…). Of course, these shifts, which can be observed all over the world, have a significant impact on the world of organisms that depend on certain processes in nature being synchronized in time. This ensures that predators meet their prey and that young animals hatch or are born when they find optimal food in nature. Plants need to flower when their pollinators are active, when parasites meet their hosts at the right time (p. 50).

Rarely has a book about the climate crisis been so motivating to act now, to become active, to change something, maybe to prevent something, or at least to adapt structures to the climate catastrophe.

Stefan Rahmstorf writes (p. 30) on a 3 degree warmer world: “I am not sure whether the reasonably civilized coexistence of people as we know it will continue under these conditions. I personally consider a 3 degree world to be an existential threat to human civilization

TADEAS:
Koyaanisqatsi - Ending Scene (Best Quality)
https://youtu.be/OacVy8_nJi0

The drought across Europe is drying up rivers, killing fish and shriveling crops
https://www.npr.org/2022/08/12/1117130528/the-drought-across-europe-is-drying-up-rivers-killing-fish-and-shriveling-crops

TADEAS: implications remain poorly understood

the fascists are going to win the elections
they're going to have us building walls
they're going to send your children off to slaughter in war
enter that
despair
that self-contempt
that confusion
that feeling of being lost

Rockstrom
https://twitter.com/jrockstrom/status/1558069813964070912?s=19

We have, until yesterday morning, warned of the 3-times faster warming of the Arctic, compared to the Planet. Now we have to make a correction. It is 4 times faster (7 times faster on Svalbard). Implications remain poorly understood.

Arctic warming 4 times faster than rest of planet: Climate study | Climate News | Al Jazeera
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/11/arctic-warming-four-times-faster-than-rest-of-earth-study

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 | Communications Earth & Environment
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3

hansen

WolfeNotes.com » Jim Hansen Calls Out Climate Impacts Of Biden’s “Inflation Reduction Act” Deal
http://www.wolfenotes.com/2022/08/jim-hansen-calls-out-climate-impacts-of-bidens-inflation-reduction-act-deal/

By now, I’m sure you’ve all read or heard about the significant climate policy victories embedded in the Biden “Inflation Reduction Act” and how it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions – the models estimate – by up to 44%.

I’m not technically competent to critique the models that generated these estimates of emissions reductions, but I have basic quantitative skills and experience in how laws get implemented. Without going into detail, based on a cursory review, I can say that key assumptions of those models are absurd. To name just 4:

1) the carbon capture and sequestration technology is not feasible;

2) the huge rate of increase in renewable power capacity installation is unrealistic; (read the below caveats):

3) there is no guarantee that renewable power capacity displaces carbon sources of power, especially given technical integration of renewables and gas fired power.

I’ve call it “magical thinking”.

There likely will be growth in GHG emissions given projected economic growth, projected huge increases in energy demand (especially from electrification), continued promotion of leasing and development of fossil reserves, and investment and expansion of fossil and other GHG generating infrastructure in the bill (and the prior infrastructure bill).

It’s even worse than Sanders blasted. He didn’t mention huge subsidies to carbon capture, nuclear power, agriculture, “biofuels”, “sustainable aviation fuel”, logging, mining, pipelines, and electric power lines, among others.

4) I think “forest management” logging policies deeply undermine, if not wipe out, the assumed forest carbon sequestration assumptions. Logging is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.

In addition to inherent limitations of modeling, I’m also highly skeptical of the ability of modelers to understand laws and policy and how they are implemented in the real world.

...

When considering priorities suggested by the billions of dollars in the bill, keep in mind that this is a 10 year plan, so divide by 10: e.g. the $370 billion for renewable energy is just $37 billion/year. Compare that to the $800+ billion or so spent on the military, per year

kind of related

bordelle