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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS, SHEFIK: nejsem moc zorientovan, ale prijde mi zajimavej pojem state capacity, prijd emi to interpretacne nosnejsi nez napr demokracie, kapitalismus.

    State Capacity in Historical Political Economy: What, How, Why, and Why Not? – Broadstreet
    https://broadstreet.blog/2022/05/02/state-capacity-in-historical-political-economy-what-how-why-and-why-not/

    State capacity: a useful concept or meaningless pablum? – Broadstreet
    https://broadstreet.blog/2021/04/12/state-capacity-a-useful-concept-or-meaningless-pablum/
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    YMLADRIS: nemyslim, ze by se demokracie tolik zmenila. V demokracii jsou nejaky mechanismy soukromyho vlastnictvi, kdy stat nemuze rozhodovat o cizim majetku. Ta zmena kdy sahnes na tyhle prostredky znamena (docasny) konec demokracie. Stavas se centralne rizenym statem podlehajicim jedinemu vedeni (vpodstate totalitou s nadeji, ze tvuj vojensky vudce ma trochu rozumu). Jak psal tadeas - jsou na to nouzovy valecny stavy, kdy si pak panove nahore mohou delat co chteji, vcetne vysati hdp k jednomu ucelu.

    Proto biden zkousel napr. tohle k politickymu vyhednavani: https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/07/20/climate-emergency-biden-consequences-00046885

    Jenze valka (podrizeni ekonomiky jednomu ucelu) vycerpava. Nejde jen o to, ze cast hdp nekam alokujes, ale ze svoji neefektivitou (protoze neadresujes potreby spolecnosti jako takove) vlastne snizuje zivotni uroven tvych obyvatel na roky dopredu (vcetne nejake konkurencni vyhody oproti ostatnim statum).

    A pak je tu jeste posledni strana mince, kdyz tohle 'nasilny prevzeti moci' provedes, a nestihes za volebni obdobi zmenit svet (klima za 4 roky z pohledu jedne zeme dost tezko), tak je to vpodstate politicka sebevrazda pro tebe i tvoji stranu a vytvoris tolik radikalizace, ze se pak do vlady dostanou na dlouhe obdobi uplne protichudne smery, ktere vsechnu tu diktatorakou dobrotu rychle smazou :)

    ...v ramci demokracie to bude vzdycky o uvedomnelych volicich a nejakem rozumnem planu transition, ktery snizuje dopad na nizkoprijmove (vice socialisticky), pripadne da trhu cas na reorganizaci (vice kapitalisticky)
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    SHEFIK: rozumím. Změnila se demokracie. Ale jak? Je to teď víc demokratické než v 1945? Nebo míň? Co se stalo, že státy nemůžou ani vybírat vsechny daně, natož nařídit carbon tax, zatímco před sto lety (by) mohly? Proč mohly více regulovat kapitalismus?
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: The livestock industry has fought back with a massive public relations campaign, seeking to persuade people that pasture-fed meat helps reduce global heating by storing carbon in the soil. Yet, despite the many claims, there is no empirical evidence that carbon storage in pastures can even compensate for grazing’s current account emissions, let alone address the capital debt. Just as the oil industry tried to convince us that CO2 was good for the planet on the grounds that it’s “plant food”, the ranching industry has sought to sow doubt and confusion about its vast environmental impacts.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: Ranching’s capital account is always in debt, because wild ecosystems store more carbon than the fields and pastures that have taken their place. These debts can be enormous. A study of carbon opportunity costs published in Nature found that, while the global average cost of soybeans is 17kg of carbon dioxide for each kilogram of protein, the average carbon opportunity cost of a kilogram of beef protein is an astounding 1,250kg. Another paper calculates that if we all shifted to a plant-based diet, the carbon drawn down from the atmosphere by recovering ecosystems would be equivalent to the world’s fossil fuel emissions from the previous 16 years.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    zdroj kterej cituje proti holistic managementu

    This commentary summarizes the evidence supporting holistic management (HM) and intensive rotational grazing (IRG) to demonstrate the extent to which Sherren and coauthors (2012) have overstated their policy endorsement of HM for rangeland application. Five major points are presented – distinction between HM and IRG, insufficient evaluation of the contradictory evidence, limitations of the experimental approach, additional costs associated with IRG, and heterogeneous capabilities and goals of graziers’ to manage intensive strategies – to justify why this policy endorsement is ill-advised. The vast majority of experimental evidence does not support claims of enhanced ecological benefits in IRG compared to other grazing strategies, including the capacity to increase storage of soil organic carbon.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308521X13001480
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    monbiot proti regenerativni pastve

    Perhaps the most important of all environmental issues is land use. Every hectare of land we use for extractive industries is a hectare that can’t support wild forests, savannahs, wetlands, natural grasslands and other crucial ecosystems. And farming swallows far more land than any other human activity.

    What are the world’s most damaging farm products? You might be amazed by the answer: organic, pasture-fed beef and lamb. I realise this is a shocking claim. Of all the statements in my new book, Regenesis, it has triggered the greatest rage. But I’m not trying to wind people up. I’m trying to represent the facts. Let me explain

    The most damaging farm products? Organic, pasture-fed beef and lamb | Food | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/16/most-damaging-farm-products-organic-pasture-fed-beef-lamb
    INK_FLO
    INK_FLO --- ---
    TADEAS: o víkendu v Birminghamu bylo fakt na chcípnutí (vedlejší efekt byl, že jsem omylem na hlavním nádraží v komatu po x-hodinách v buse aktivoval alarm, ale naštěstí se stihl v nastalé panice vypařit :-)), po 2 hodinách pěšky přes centrum nezchladila ani druhá ledová sprcha, po cestě jsem přemýšlel, že snad skočím do všudypřítomných kanálů...se zavřeným oknem se nedá spát, s otevřeným taky ne kvůli hluku, do toho všude smrad odpadků, Summerfield Park polouschlej a žlutej...
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Weather tracker: drought declared in England after driest July since 1935 | Environment | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/15/weather-tracker-drought-declared-in-england-after-driest-july-since-1935
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Survival that night was a very tight race, & savagely simple. People who started early & moved fast had some chance of winning. People who started late or hesitated for any reason had no chance at all. Action paid. Contemplation did not. TADEAS
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    thought leadership
    or not

    vc. typicky misleading obrazku skotu na totalne vymlaceny 'louce' [shifting baselines anyone?]

    England must reduce meat intake to avoid climate breakdown, says food tsar | Food | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/16/england-must-reduce-meat-dairy-intake-says-henry-dimbleby
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    panda pandu myje

    Covid-19 Is Just the Beginning of the War on Viruses
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-14/covid-polio-monkeypox-langya-are-a-warning-on-disease-spread-l6t9zxqj

    Zoonotic spillover — when diseases jump between animals and humans — will happen more and more frequently as habitats are changed by global warming
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    There is a curious phenomenon that results from the relatively brief window of time a single human lifetime provides: we perceive the current state of the natural world as “normal”.

    This is known as the Shifting Baseline Syndrome.

    https://twitter.com/bidetmarxman/status/1559191234899415040/photo/1
    https://t.co/cv8TmrGs0A

    20220816-223958

    20220816-224015

    20220816-224020

    20220816-224049

    20220816-224052
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    TADEAS: z toho clanku co jsi linkoval treba:

    The decision has yet to be formally adopted by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s cabinet and would likely require a vote in Parliament. Some details are still under discussion, three senior government officials said. A cabinet decision would also need to wait on the outcome of an assessment of Germany’s energy needs that will be concluded in the coming weeks but which the officials said was a foregone conclusion.

    Still, while a formal decision could be weeks off, the government believes two key conditions allowing a temporary extension of the life of the three remaining plants, now expected to close on Dec. 31, have been met: Germany is facing a likely shortage of gas and letting the reactors operate longer poses no safety concern, the officials said.

    “The reactors are safe until Dec. 31, and obviously they will remain safe also after Dec. 31,” a senior official said.

    Extending the life of the three plants beyond their current closing date is no panacea for Germany’s looming energy bottleneck this winter. The country is mainly missing natural gas, which is used primarily for heating and manufacturing.

    Yet by allowing the plants, which together account for around 6% of the country’s electricity production, to stay online, Berlin would remove the need to replace them with gas- or coal-powered plants, allowing gas to be used in areas where it can’t be replaced by other fuels.


    neni to jiste, neni nic schvalene jeste ... problem je, ze nemaji dalsi palivo objednany, takze by dojizdeli na tom, ktery maji ted, plus pravidena desetileta udrzba uz se u tehlech elektraren nedelala asi 13 let (pac se planovalo, ze se zavrou), pokud by je chteli jen nechat dojet s tim, co ted maji a dozdimat palivo, co maji, asi no problem, pokud by je chteli nejak dal vyuzivat, byla by nutna odstavka nekolikamesicni a udrzba a hodne penez ...
    s tim, ze to nemci chteli odstavit hlavne kvuli bezpecnosti je to celkem funny situace
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Fotky: Nejdelší řeka Francie nikdy netekla tak pomalu - Seznam Zprávy
    https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/zahranicni-fotky-nejdelsi-reka-francie-nikdy-netekla-tak-pomalu-211607

    Varování z jižní Evropy: Tohle sucho je jiné. Je to rozjetý vlak i alarm pro vás - Seznam Zprávy
    https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/rozhovory-tohle-sucho-je-jine-je-to-rozjety-vlak-i-alarm-pro-vas-rika-italsky-hydrolog-210950
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    PER2: nesleduju, napis vic
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    TADEAS: k tomuhle jsou nekde potvrzeny zpravy nebo je to porad dokola sirena fama? nic neni potvrzenyho a schvalenyho
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    P Carter
    https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1559436384812773376?s=19

    EUROPE MAXIMUM HEAT HIGHLY DAMAGING at 1.5°C
    IPCC AR6. At global 1.5°C TXx max up to 3°C, puts crop yields at risk.

    At 1.5°C city populations at high risk, with added heat island. 2022 EU mega-disaster at 1.1°C

    20220816-221054
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    kvuli klimatu ne

    Německo otočilo. Jaderné elektrárny pojedou dál - Novinky.cz
    https://www.novinky.cz/ekonomika/clanek/nemecko-otocilo-a-neodstavi-sve-posledni-tri-jaderne-elektrarny-40405935

    "Německo kvůli energetické krizi neodstaví své poslední tři jaderné elektrárny a nechá je prozatím v provozu i po konci letošního roku, kdy Berlín zastavení výroby energie z jádra plánoval. V úterý to napsal list The Wall Street Journal, který se odvolává na tři nejmenované německé vládní představitele. "


    Germany to Keep Last Three Nuclear-Power Plants Running in Policy U-Turn - WSJ
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-to-keep-last-three-nuclear-power-plants-running-in-policy-u-turn-11660661914

    "BERLIN—Germany plans to postpone the closure of the country’s last three nuclear power plants as it braces for a possible shortage of energy this winter after Russia throttled gas supplies to the country, said German government officials."
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: ad 'neciti se ohrozeni proto, ze mame globalni svet, lidem na tak vysokych pozicich je vicemene jedno, kde ziji. neni pro ne nejak klicovy "chranit uzemi".'

    tohle bych vubec neprecenoval. ano, nekterych lidi se tohle tyka, napr. si cilene buduji nejake hybridni multistatni identity a nejsou co se tyce sveho zivota a osobniho bohatstvi prilis zavisli na nejakem konkretnim statu. ale tohle podle me taky predpoklada, ze nejsou prilis vysoko v zadnem statnim celku, protoze jakmile jsou dostatecne velci, krizi si cestu se statnimi organizacemi a ty po nich vyzaduji nejake formy kooperace a loajality... musk, bezos, atp. si nemuzou dovolit cokoliv, krizi si cesty s mnoha vojenskymi a prumyslovymi zajmy, jejich bohatstvi je odvisle/garantovane nejakym statem, jeho vojenskym aparatem atd. ... spis je to docela tesne provazane. ... nemluve pak o rusku, cine, brazilii...
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    YMLADRIS: tohle neni o kapitalismu, tohle je o demokracii. Tenkrat byla taky nejaka forma "kapitalismu" nez zacla valka...

    YMLADRIS: ne, to by se zatrhnout melo, ale pravne je to predpokladam tezky, jinak by to uz bylo davno vyreseny. Priznam se ze do tehle veci tolik nevidim
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: tam zalezi, co se s temi penezmi deje. pokud si je korporace nekde uleje a neinvestuje je, napr. ceka na repatriaci zisku do zeme puvodu, nebo neco podobnyho, tak to je problem. pokud je reinvestuje, tak ty penize neco delaji a pak je otazka, jestli delaj neco planetarne smysluplnyho, napr stabilizace klimatu a regenerace ekosystemu :) ... pokud by ty zisky musely zdanit, pouze by stat dostal prilezitost investovat nebo darovat takto ziskane penize na neco, co stat povazuje za vhodne. (a jako uprimne, kdo povazuje stat za dobreho investora/redistributora)
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam