btw si zase trochu procitam ze stranky "the discovery of global warming" od spencera wearta (ta stranka je naprostej poklad, doporucuju vsem se zajmem o problematiku obcas si tam zabrouzdat)". Rok 1971
By 1971, the risks to climate were under vigorous discussion in the small community of climate scientists. When Budyko presided over a large meeting in Leningrad, a rare occasion when most of the leading American, Western European and Soviet experts all met together, he put the issue to them forcefully. At the conclusion of the conference, where the organizer would traditionally sum up with some bland remarks, "Instead of general words," Budyko recalled, "I presented in short form an idea which proved to be absolutely unacceptable to everybody: the idea that global warming is unavoidable... The result was a sensation. Everybody had very strong feelings, and extremely unfavorable... A few very prominent men said, first, that it was absolutely impossible to have any [effect] of man's activity on the climate... And absolutely impossible to predict any climate change."(78) It was not pleasant, Budyko later recalled, to present unconventional ideas and provoke negative feelings, but the risk to the planet seemed so grave that it was important to provoke scientists to study the question and find whether the ideas were valid.(79)
Budyko was not alone in his concerns. They were taken up in an influential report (the "SMIC report") as the consensus of a major scientific meeting held in Stockholm that same year, 1971. The experts concluded that there was a possibility that a mere 2% increase or decrease of solar radiation, helped by albedo feedback, could leave the planet either totally ice-free or totally frozen.(80*) Budyko, Sellers, and others pressed ahead, finding that under a variety of simple assumptions, any model that gave a good representation of the Earth's present climate looked unstable and could just as easily produce a radically different climate.(81*) In 1972, Budyko calculated that a mere few tenths of a percent increase in solar radiation input could melt the ice caps. More important still, changing the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would have an effect similar to changing the Sun's radiation. His model indicated that a 50% increase in CO2 would melt all the polar ice, whereas reduction of the gas by half "can lead to a complete glaciation of the Earth."
Budyko went on to note that any changes in CO2 caused by natural geological processes had been overtaken by human activity. At some time "comparatively soon (probably not later than a hundred years)... a substantial rise in air temperature will take place." He offered a crude estimate (which would turn out to be not far off) that by 2020 global temperature would rise 1°C and the Arctic Ocean's summer ice would be reduced by half.(82)Simple Models of Climatehttps://history.aip.org/climate/simple.htm#M_62_