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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    SMYSLOV
    SMYSLOV --- ---

    tento čtvrtek 9. listopadu od 19.30
    filmová premiéra participativního dokumentu
    Žalovat a chránit
    v Kapusu Hybernská
    vstup zdarma
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    New Study Warns of an Imminent Spike of Planetary Warming and Deepens Divides Among Climate Scientists - Inside Climate News
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02112023/study-warns-of-spike-of-warming-divides-climate-scientists/

    the research was controversial even before it was published, and it may widen the rifts in the climate science community and in the broader public conversation about the severity and imminence of climate impacts, with Hansen criticizing the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for underestimating future warming, while other researchers, including IPCC authors, lambasted the new study.

    The research suggests that an ongoing reduction of sulfuric air pollution particles called aerosols could send the global average annual temperature soaring beyond the targets of the Paris climate agreement much sooner than expected, which would sharply increase the challenges faced by countries working to limit harmful climate change under international agreements on an already treacherous geopolitical stage.

    ...

    Combining the the paleoclimate data with modeling and detailed observations from the last few decades, the team concluded that the world is in for a wild ride of climate impacts, including possible superstorms that could toss house-sized boulders to the top of seaside cliffs, radical changes to global rainfall patterns that would affect agriculture in densely populated regions and possibly several meters of sea level rise by 2100, as compared to the IPCC-projected range of .29 to 1.1 meters.

    ...

    Hansen’s new research about the relative strengths of those competing effects diverges from many other studies by suggesting the cooling effect has been underestimated so that as sulfur aerosols and their effects on clouds are reduced, temperature will increase more than expected.

    How clouds will change in the decades ahead, and their interaction with aerosols, remains the single greatest uncertainty in making accurate projections for future temperature increases, according to most climate scientists. Several key satellite instruments that could have helped answer that question never made it into orbit in the 1980s and 1990s, despite repeated requests, Hansen said.

    ...

    Schmidt said a new mission called PACE (short for Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem) could quickly reduce the uncertainties surrounding the effects of aerosols on the climate. That satellite should be in orbit within the coming year. Copernicus, the European Union climate change service, is also launching a new satellite, EarthCARE, also with the goal of measuring the relationship of aerosols, clouds and precipitation to how much of the sun’s radiation reaches Earth to drive global heating.

    Absent those data, the new study used a process of elimination to again show reductions in sulfur aerosols were triggering accelerated warming. Comparisons with past climate periods hold some of the clues, showing, for example, that reefs along the Yucatán Peninsula grew upward and shoreward in giant spurts over the course of just a few decades, about 100,000 years ago during the late Eemian geological era. That, Hansen said, is another warning sign that parts of Earth’s climate system, and particularly ice sheets and ice shelves, are more sensitive to warming than we think.

    “The IPCC system doesn’t acknowledge the degree to which the aerosol forcing will affect the climate in the next few decades, probably more than anything else,” Simons said. “We hope we’re wrong.”
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: ty kráso, klouboučky už letí

    decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TUHO: to jsou pohadky na dobrou noc (našemu druhu)?

    Navigating Cascading Planetary Boundaries: A Framework to Secure the Future

    Anthropocene Under Dark Skies: The Compounding Effects of Nuclear Winter and Overstepped Planetary Boundaries

    Is Climate Change Ungovernable?
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    hansen

    2023 Global warming in the pipeline
    https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889

    Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.

    TADEAS:
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    “The 1.5 degree limit is deader than a doornail, and the 2 degree limit can be rescued only with the help of purposeful actions to effect Earth’s Energy Balance. We will need to cool off Earth to save our coastlines, coastal cities worldwide, and lowlands, while also addressing the other problems caused by global warming.”

    An Intimate Conversation with Leading Climate Scientists To Discuss New Research on Global Warming
    https://youtu.be/NXDWpBlPCY8?si=kfxCUkCh4FC0-MWG
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    20231104-222628
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    (a taky rok do kteryho kurzweill umistuje AGI)


    In early 2029, Earth will likely lock into breaching key warming threshold, scientists calculate | AP News
    https://apnews.com/article/warming-carbon-climate-change-too-late-943b4b34bff5110631c2e02f5cdf7d68

    In a little more than five years – sometime in early 2029 – the world will likely be unable to stay below the internationally agreed temperature limit for global warming if it continues to burn fossil fuels at its current rate, a new study says.

    The study moves three years closer the date when the world will eventually hit a critical climate threshold, which is an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since the 1800s.

    Beyond that temperature increase, the risks of catastrophes increase, as the world will likely lose most of its coral reefs, a key ice sheet could kick into irreversible melt, and water shortages, heat waves and death from extreme weather dramatically increase, according to an earlier United Nations scientific report.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Zajimavej typek pise o filozofii klimatickych modelu

    Eric Winsberg - Wikipedia
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Winsberg
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Elisabeth Lloyd: Robustness of Climate Models
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YczhQ_kXb_4
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The money men know the truth about planetary boundaries!
    https://youtu.be/X-FJvzgrM00?si=_114Mba29Zrenf-6
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Climate crisis talks resume on ‘loss and damage’ funding for poorest countries | Climate crisis | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/03/un-climate-crisis-talks-resume-loss-damage-funding-poorest-countries
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TUHO: jako že deep adaption goes mainstream, nebo nějaký novinky? Díky za případné tldr
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    The impending threat of climate calamity is forging a new breed of subnational statesmen from California guided by a political philosophy that could be called “planetary realism.”

    Their view departs from the old “realist” school of foreign policy that regards nation-states as the principal actors on the world stage engaged in an endless struggle against others in pursuit of securing their own national interests.

    Reality these days dictates that this new realism supplants the old when it comes to the convergence of critical common challenges that are beyond the scope of remedy by any one nation or bloc of nations. As the Earth’s biosphere cascades toward unlivable conditions, the security of each depends inextricably on the other.

    California’s Planetary Realism - NOEMA
    https://www.noemamag.com/californias-planetary-realism/?
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Klimatolog Stephen Schneider v dokumentu z roku 1981 mluvi o klimatickejch modelech

    Climate Change - Warming Warning - 1981
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVQgyn-zP18
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Zemědělství prý není pro mladé. Farmářská škola ale dokazuje, že o ekologické zemědělství zájem mají – A2larm
    https://a2larm.cz/2023/11/zemedelstvi-pry-neni-pro-mlade-farmarska-skola-ale-dokazuje-ze-o-ekologicke-zemedelstvi-zajem-maji/
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Hele a tady bozi summary na historie klimatologie od americkeho historika a fyzika Spencer Wearta. Jak jsme prisli na to, ze se ohriva - a jak jsme si zavreli cestu, k tomu abysme se vyhnuli nebezpecny klimaticky zmene. Tyve dneska to na me nejak dopada... Cistu si tu historii takhle v kontextu, je tak strasne depresivni.

    By the late 1970s global temperatures had begun to rise again. Since the late 1950s some climate scientists had been predicting that an unprecedented global warming would become apparent around the year 2000. Their worries finally caught wide public attention in the summer of 1988, the hottest on record till then. Computer modeler James Hansen made headlines when he told a Congressional hearing and journalists that greenhouse warming was almost certainly underway. And a major international meeting of scientists in Toronto called on governments to undertake active steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

    The response was vehement. Corporations and individuals who opposed all government regulation began to spend millions of dollars on lobbying, advertising, and "reports" that mimicked scientific publications, striving to convince the public that there was no problem at all. Environmental groups, less wealthy but more enthusiastic, helped politicize the issue with urgent cries of alarm. The many scientific uncertainties, and the sheer complexity of climate, made room for limitless debate over what actions, if any, governments should take.
    ...

    If every nation met its target, what would they achieve? The science remained stubbornly imprecise, for the global climate system is a tangle of many interacting influences. Scientists did know that without stronger and prolonged efforts we were likely to get a rise to 2.5°C or more. That would be a desperately wounded world, where it would be difficult to sustain a civilization that was anywhere prosperous and peaceful. And we would face a small but real risk of triggering unstoppable heating, to a point where it would be difficult to sustain any civilization at all.

    Future diplomacy would have to press urgently for stronger pledges and see that they were fulfilled. The world’s climate experts explained that we had delayed action for so long that we could now avoid grave harm only if global emissions did not just level off, but began to plunge by the year 2030. The policies set during the decade of the 2020s would determine the state of the planet’s climate for thousands of years to come. Fortunately, the expense of making the necessary changes in our economic and social systems would be far less than the cost of allowing climate change to continue, and would bring numerous other benefits. Ever more people and organizations saw that the work was in their own interest and began to undertake it.


    Introduction - Summary
    https://history.aip.org/climate/summary.htm
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: ale teda je to strasny cteni, uplne se z nej svira zaludek
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Sbornik o existencnich rizicich - vystup konference ze Stanfordu. Prispevek tam ma i kral historie klimatologie Paul N. Edwards (na strane 133)

    Is Climate Change Ungovernable?
    Abstract: This paper reviews the potential for catastrophic, civilization-threatening climate change
    within the next 2-3 centuries if climate sensitivity is on the high end of IPCC estimates and the
    thresholds of various tipping points are crossed. I argue that empirical evidence supports a
    substantial likelihood of future climate policy reversals by major emitters, resulting in continuing
    accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. On high-end sensitivity estimates, Paris
    Agreement pledges to date are insufficient even if fully implemented. Policy is always reversible,
    and major reversals have already occurred. Climate denialism and misdirection can, and probably
    will, be amplified by artificial intelligence and social media. Finally, the focus on international
    governance mechanisms obscures the many levels of jurisdiction that must be engaged for strong
    climate policy to take effect. The paper concludes that while renewable energy progress presents a
    hopeful note, chances are high that current structu

    Intersections, Reinforcements, Cascades
    Proceedings of the 2023 Stanford Existential Risks Conference

    https://stacks.stanford.edu/file/druid:pn116pv4512/Intersections%2C%20Reinforcements%2C%20Cascades_Proceedings%20of%20the%202023%20Stanford%20Existential%20Risks%20Conference.pdf#page=133
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam