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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Safe and just Earth System Boundaries

    Abstract
    The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1,2,3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

    Safe and just Earth system boundaries | Nature
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06083-8
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    YMLADRIS: i na nyxu musíš fyzikům vysvětlit termohalinní cyklus, protože o něm vůbec netuší. zato velmi přesně vědí, že všechna energie se vyzáří zpět do vesmíru, takže šach-mat, oteplení není možný.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    Může se hodit TUHO (predplatny nemam)

    How Republicans Are Trying to Kill One of Biden's Most Successful Climate Programs

    Republicans are on the hunt for "the next Solyndra." But what does that mean?

    A brief history of Solyndra and the scandal that plagued the LPO

    Why Republicans—yes, the party of climate obstruction—started the LPO in 2005

    The “Valley of Death” problem that prevents much climate innovation

    How the LPO helped launch EVs and wind energy

    Why Republicans are going after a climate program they created two decades ago

    How Republicans Are Trying to Kill One of Biden's Most Successful Climate Programs
    https://www.distilled.earth/p/how-republicans-are-trying-to-kill
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TUHO: ad inzenyr s rovnicemi - ta Sabine Hossenfelder, fyzička co se (kromě jiných věcí) snaží mluvit o climate change, k tomuto psala, že z její zkušenosti drtivá většina vědců, kteří dodnes popírají klima, jsou bohužel fyzici. Vysvětluje si to tak, že jsou zpravidla supersmart a myslí si, že všechno ví nejlíp
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: People who write about climate change are accustomed to getting emails explaining why they are mistaken. The writer, often a retired engineer, sends a couple of pages of equations “proving” that adding carbon dioxide gas (CO2) to the atmosphere cannot cause global warming. Is there a simple physics model that shows in a transparent way how humanity’s emissions of gases do heat the planet? History offers an instructive approach to this question. When scientists attacked the problem, what mental obstacles did they encounter, and how were those overcome? Two centuries of effort, summarized below, concluded that greenhouse calculations require computer models far too complex to be understood intuitively—but simple, readily grasped observations show that the models’ conclusions are plausible.

    Intuitive models
    The struggle began in 1824 when Joseph Fourier, as a minor aside from his landmark contributions to the physics and mathematics of heat flow, published a speculation. He proposed (wrongly) that interplanetary space is inherently very cold, and he wondered why our Earth is not frozen. Perhaps our atmosphere retains heat like a blanket? He compared the air to a pane of glass covering a box: the glass lets sunlight in but stops heat (infrared) radiation from leaving. This would later be called the “greenhouse effect.” Not until 1909 did a physicist, Robert W. Wood, point out that the phrase is misleading; the main work of the glass in an actual greenhouse is to separate the warm air inside from the cold winds outside. Still, Fourier’s rudimentary model of the atmosphere raising Earth’s temperature by blocking outgoing infrared radiation sounded plausible.

    The idea got little traction. There was no actual evidence that Earth needed help in keeping warm, and anyway air seemed to be entirely transparent to radiation. But then geologists discovered the ice ages: a constant global temperature could no longer be taken for granted. Could an ice age be caused by a change in the composition of the atmosphere? John Tyndall decided to check that by devising an apparatus to measure the passage of infrared rays through gases. In 1859, he found that the main constituents of the atmosphere, nitrogen and oxygen, are indeed transparent—but water vapor, CO2, methane, and some other gases absorb infrared rays.

    How does that affect Earth’s climate? Tyndall, a superb science popularizer, came up with a simple model of the process that has never been bettered: “As a dam built across a river causes a local deepening of the stream, so our atmosphere, thrown as a barrier across the terrestrial [heat] rays, produces a local heightening of the temperature at the Earth’s surface.” A fine analogy—but understanding a process doesn’t signify much until you get numbers. How much would global temperature change if the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere changed?

    Calculating a number
    In 1896, after half a century of advances in infrared measurements, Svante Arrhenius attempted to quantify the greenhouse effect. He began with a short list of equations, the first real physics model. There was much to calculate. Adding CO2 at a given height in the atmosphere would absorb a certain amount of radiation and warm that level. But then the warmer air would hold more water vapor, itself a potent greenhouse gas. So that had to be calculated too. Arrhenius made a separate calculation for each band of latitude, noting that when the surface in northern latitudes grew warmer, it would retain less ice and snow, uncovering dark ocean and soil that would absorb additional heat. In the end, he spent a full year on pencil-and-paper computations. Yet it was a simple model; one modern microchip could do the calculation in a fraction of a second.

    Arrhenius announced that doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere should warm the planet something like 4 °C. That was obviously only a rough estimate, but the exact number did not seem to matter much. At the rate that humanity was burning coal, Arrhenius figured it would take thousands of years to double the CO2.

    Other scientists soon decided that Arrhenius’s estimate was worthless. They were right, for as we will see, he left out factors that are crucial for climate. But their main argument was a simple one that apparently refuted the greenhouse effect altogether. A basic laboratory measurement indicated that doubling the CO2 in the atmosphere could make no difference at all. For in the broad bands of the infrared spectrum where CO2 acts to absorb radiation, there was already enough of the gas in the atmosphere to make the air utterly opaque: that part of the infrared spectrum was “saturated.”

    So matters stood until 1956, when Gilbert Plass took a fresh look at the greenhouse question. The laboratory measurement of CO2 that supposedly refuted Arrhenius had been done at sea-level pressure. That seemed reasonable when everyone looked at the atmosphere from the bottom up, as if it indeed acted like a solid slab of glass. But if you looked down from space, you would see infrared radiation coming mostly from the thin air near the top of the atmosphere—air that was heated by absorbing radiation from below. Drawing on decades of progress in theory and spectroscopy, Plass knew that in this thin air, the bands of infrared absorption resolve into a thicket of individual lines. Adding CO2 would broaden the lines, and they would absorb more radiation. The place from which heat radiation finally escaped into space would migrate to a higher level. Everything below would get warmer, as in Tyndall’s analogy of a dam.

    Even with the new digital computers, it was a huge job to calculate the effect, layer by layer through the atmosphere and point by point across the spectrum. Plass could model only a one-dimensional column of air, a simpler physical model than Arrhenius’s even as it required much more computation. Plass found that doubling the CO2 in his model did raise the temperature by a few degrees down to ground level: the greenhouse question was revived. However, he had left out so many things (water vapor, for one) that everyone knew the question was not answered. Indeed, when Fritz Möller tried the calculation including water vapor, he got an unreasonable surface temperature rise of 10 °C or more.

    Complete calculations
    Syukuro Manabe took up the challenge. His equations included a crucial process that almost everyone had overlooked: convection. Heat rises from Earth’s surface not only in radiation but in columns of air and moisture, carried skyward, for example, in thunderstorms. That is what prevents Möller’s runaway surface heating. Manabe’s model was in a sense still simple, equations that could be written down on a couple of pages. But he meticulously fed it the details of the actual infrared absorption and humidity at 18 levels of the atmosphere. Calculating it all just for a one-dimensional column of air still needed a state-of-the-art computer. In 1967, working with a collaborator, Manabe produced a simulated atmospheric profile that looked pretty much like the real one. Then, like Arrhenius and Plass, he doubled the CO2 level in his simulated atmosphere and calculated the change in surface temperature—a number that would be called the climate “sensitivity.” It was roughly 2 °C. The calculation was impressive, convincing many scientists that greenhouse warming was worth looking into. Yet Manabe’s model was clearly too simple. In particular, like everyone else, Manabe had left out a feature of climate that profoundly affects radiation: clouds.

    Over the next decade, leaps in computer power enabled Manabe and his collaborators to clone their one-dimensional column thousands of times to wrap a globe in three dimensions, and to incorporate clouds and other essential climate features. To get the pattern of cloudiness, they had to calculate how the atmosphere exchanges moisture with simplified sea, land, and ice surfaces, and how rain or snow falls on the surfaces and evaporates or runs off in rivers, and more. Then there were the oceans, with their own circulation transporting vast amounts of heat from the tropics toward the poles. In the end, Manabe produced a simulated planet with trade winds, tropical rain bands, deserts, ice caps, and so forth in all the right places. Finally, a model complicated enough to look like the real world! Doubling the CO2 got, again, a sensitivity of roughly 2 °C.

    Humanity was now burning fossil fuels an order of magnitude faster than in Arrhenius’s day. Measurements of the CO2 level in the atmosphere revealed it was rising fast. A doubling was not a thousand years off, but likely before the end of the 21st century. National policies for energy production might need to be reconsidered.

    The U.S. President’s Science Adviser, geophysicist Frank Press, heard of the problem. In 1979, he turned to the nation’s traditional provider of trustworthy science advice: the National Academy of Sciences. The Academy duly convened a panel to conduct a study. The panel ploughed through publications on a variety of rudimentary models like Plass’s. They interviewed Manabe at length about his 2 °C finding. And they interviewed James Hansen, the author of the only other big climate model at that time, which computed a sensitivity of 4 °C. The panel found it very probable that doubling CO2 would seriously heat the planet. Splitting the difference between Manabe and Hansen, they estimated the sensitivity would be 3 °C give or take 50%, that is, 1.5–4.5 °C.

    The Academy panel judged well. The scientific consensus today still puts the most likely sensitivity at 3 °C (a climate of severe global disruption). The range of uncertainty was not narrowed until 2021, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change put the likely lower bound at 2 °C and the upper at 4 °C, although they could not rule out 5 °C (an unimaginable catastrophe). So there persists a disturbing uncertainty. The most advanced models, embodying orders of magnitude more features than Manabe’s, disagree among themselves. Climate is inextricably complicated. That raises a different and urgent question: can these models, far too elaborate to be grasped intuitively, be trusted at all?

    Verifying the number
    The first convincing answer came in 1985 from Vostok, Antarctica, where the Soviet Union drilled a hole kilometers deep into the ice cap. Tiny bubbles in the ice preserved ancient air with its CO2. The ratio of oxygen isotopes (18O/16O) in the ice measured the temperature of the clouds at the time the snow had fallen, for the warmer the air, the more of the heavier isotope got into the ice crystals. Analysis showed that through the coming and going of entire ice ages, temperature and CO2 had soared and plunged in lockstep. And the sensitivity? Doubled CO2 meant a temperature rise of … wait for it … 3 °C give or take 50%.

    In any field of science, when two utterly different approaches give you the same number, you can feel you are in touch with reality. Researchers took up the problem with other independent methods, working out ingenious ways to find temperature and CO2 in distant geological eras (for example, the density of pores in fossil leaves reflects the CO2 level of the air, as do carbon isotope ratios in carbonates precipitated in ancient soils, while oxygen isotope ratios in shells in seabed sediments vary with the ocean surface temperature, etc.). A variety of studies kept getting the same sensitivity. Meanwhile, other researchers used the actual warming of recent decades as a sort of natural experiment. They found that the patterns of heating measured deep in individual ocean basins neatly matched the patterns that computer models calculated for rising CO2. They found that the distribution of cloud types seen by satellites changed with warming much like the responses of computed clouds … and so forth.

    The most impressive feature of the ongoing natural experiment is rudimentary. If you superimpose the rising curve of CO2 since the 1950s on the rising curve of observed global temperature, you find an ominous match (the match is particularly precise if you assume that an exponential rise of CO2 should cause a linear rise of temperature—Arrhenius, for one, found this intuitively plausible). Extrapolate to doubled CO2, and the temperature rise is, yes, near 3 °C.

    In 1979, when the Academy panel made their estimate, the world was on track to reach doubled CO2 well before 2100. However, if nations adopt policies to fulfill the pledges they have made, we can arrest the rise a bit short of doubling—unless we have bad luck and, as some models find possible, the warming triggers a vicious cycle of additional greenhouse gas emissions.

    Climate models today explore hundreds of interacting processes in computer runs lasting weeks at teraflop rates. Nature does not allow a simple, transparent model for global warming. But we have something perhaps better: simple, transparent ways to show that we must take the models seriously.

    REFERENCES
    1.Key papers by Fourier, Tyndall, Arrhenius, Plass, Manabe, the National Academy “Charney” panel, Vostok researchers, and more are reprinted with commentary in D. Archer and R. T. Pierrehumbert (editors), The Warming Papers: The Scientific Foundation for the Climate Change Forecast (Wiley-Blackwell, Hoboken, NJ, 2011).

    2.For full history and references, see S. Weart, “Basic radiation calculations” and “Simple models of climate change” (American Institute of Physics, 2022)

    S. Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming, 2nd ed. (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 2008).
    Google Scholar
    3.A short history from another viewpoint is H. Le Treut et al, “Historical overview of climate change science,” in S. Solomon, et al. (editors), Climate Change 2007:The Physical Basis of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Cambridge University Press, New York, 2007), pp. 93–127, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/ar4_wg1_full_report-1.pdf.

    4.On matching CO2 and temperature curves, see J. Aber and S. V. Ollinger, “Simpler presentations of climate change,” Eos 103 (Sept. 13, 2022)
    5.For a college-level “simple” but reasonably complete model, see R. E. Benestad, “A mental picture of the greenhouse effect,” Theor. Appl. Climatol. 128, 679–688 (2017). All websites accessed Oct. 1, 2022.

    Spencer Weart published articles on solar physics in leading scientific journals and then turned to studying the history of science. From 1974 until his retirement in 2009, he was director of the Center for History of Physics at the American Institute of Physics. His publications include children’s science books, The Rise of Nuclear Fear, and The Discovery of Global Warming.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    People who write about climate change are accustomed to getting emails explaining why they are mistaken. The writer, often a retired engineer, sends a couple of pages of equations “proving” that adding carbon dioxide gas (CO2) to the atmosphere cannot cause global warming. Is there a simple physics model that shows in a transparent way how humanity’s emissions of gases do heat the planet? History offers an instructive approach to this question. When scientists attacked the problem, what mental obstacles did they encounter, and how were those overcome? Two centuries of effort, summarized below, concluded that greenhouse calculations require computer models far too complex to be understood intuitively—but simple, readily grasped observations show that the models’ conclusions are plausible.

    Are There Simple Models of Global Warming? | The Physics Teacher | AIP Publishing
    https://pubs.aip.org/aapt/pte/article-abstract/61/6/516/2908239/Are-There-Simple-Models-of-Global-Warming?redirectedFrom=fulltext
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    YMLADRIS: se smir s tim, ze siru do atmosfery nikdo zamerne vypoustet nebude, protoze maji informace o tom, co znamenaji kysely deste. jses jak kolovratek, zbytek WoT bez reakce
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    ZAHRADKAR: jj aktualne se mysli, ze presne tak to je. Dokud zijes v Bangladesi za dolar na den, tvuj system jako prioritu vidi mit 10 deti, protoze vis ze pulka z nich umre a priorita je predat geny dal. Jakmile zacnes zit v Bangladesi za XY dolaru za den, toto nutkani se snizi plus to souvisi s tim ze tvoji vice vzdelani spoluobcane umi zaridit aby ti neumrela vetsina deti.

    kdyz zijes vysoko, tvuj system (motivacni, behavioralni) se realizuje ruzne jinak - prace, sebevyjadreni, .. a uz to moc neni o te priorite predat geny dal. Je spousta lidi, kteri zamerne nechteji mit deti, spousta lidi kteri nechteji mit vic deti. Plus zijes pohodlne a mit 4 deti je hrozne narocne na tvoje pohodli

    Nevim zda zpet k tomu nutkani mit 4 deti se da nejak dobrovolne dostat za situace kdy lidi ziji blahobyt. Ale tak nevime, treba budou ty umele delohy, umele roboticke chuvy atd a populace se namnozi jak bude potreba. Podle myho videni pokles populace neni "jasnej existencialni risk"
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    SCHWEPZ: poskytla ti sociologie nejake hinty co by mohlo vest ke stabilizaci biosfery?
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TADEAS: to tak urcite je.

    ad nejde zpomalit "je to jen rozhodnuti" = ale lidsti akteri jsou taky je molekuly, ktere se dle fyzikalnich zakonu nekam setrvacne pohybuji. ze by AI spocitala zda to jde zpomalit jsem nemyslela jen vypocitat lepsi baterky na skladovani energie, ale prave jak to udelat, aby mohlo byt rozhodnuti jiny. my v nasi omezenosti nevime, v cem je problem: chybi lidem informace? pribeh? jina nez materialni zabava? jsou problem miliardari? nebo jak to teda je.

    ja to beru takhle

    - aktualne je techno-reseni hodne zasekly (oproti tomu kdyby se to jelo stylem manhattan project nebo moon landing). Tesla v dubnu publikovala Sustainable Energy for All Earth = nulovy zajem medii, nikoho to nezajima.
    https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3.pdf Nevim proc to tak je. Proc se nejede ten build build build

    Akteri

    - vedci = aktualizuji svoje grafy, pisou texty pro nerdy. Nema to dopad.
    - aktivisti = chteji ruzny veci podle svych pocitu (zavrit jaderne elektrarny, zavest degrowth, rikat pravdu, prestat jist maso, sazet stromy, zavest uhlikovou dan) Nema to dopad.
    - fosilni odpor = hybridni valka, zpochybnovani vseho
    - "filantropie" miliardaru = gates a jeho Breakthrough Energy a podobni
    - ? degrowth hnuti (asi spis jen takove uvahy)
    - politici = hlavne nenastvat volice

    potencialni mozne gamechangery

    1. AI = ze by se fakt namodelovalo neco, co se da delat, a investori by tomu uverili

    2. build projekt = neco jak v 50. letech komunisti presvedcili lidi, ze ma smysl postavit prehrady, zaridit bydleni pro miliony lidi, .. nebo Cina (v 1990 v cine zilo pod hranici internationalni chudoby 750 milionu lidi, ted je to 7 milionu lidi). Jako ze by lidstvo obsadil memplex "ma smysl budovat" (solary, vetrniky, AI, nuklearni energii, nuklearni fuzi, adaptaci krajiny...). Za myho zivota se dely napriklad dnes napro neuveritelne veci jako ze kdyz v obci chybela školka, postavily ji občani v "akci Z", protože proste se verilo ze je to dobra vec. Posun v imaginaci

    Co si myslim ze se ve skutecnostii stane: nic

    nejaky e/acc (aktivizovat lidi aby misto netflixu pracovali pracovali pracovali akcelerovali) nema sanci prorazit proti tem setrvacnym obrovskym energiim, ktere chteji predevsim status quo. Je to trochu jako feudalismus, kdy panovnik a vrchni slechta drzi nejvetsi profit (korporace, ktere ted maji nejvetsi profit) a udelaji vsechno, aby se ta rovnovaha nemenila. Jedina disruptivni oblast je ta digisfera, ale ta je jakasi nerealna, cely je to spis simulace

    Ale tak schweps se ptal jak je to s tou depopulaci, z jakeho pohledu je problem, proc musk tlaci na populaci atd., tak vysvetluju ten civilizacni build. je to to cemu rikas hypercivilizator a ano ma to Moloch vibes. Ale proste vynoruje se to na horizontu jako hnuti lidi, ktere unavuje bezesmyslnost jejich zivotu a preregulovanost (nesmi se nic delat z duvodu preventive precaution). Treba si neco fakt rozjedou, ale nevim, asi ne

    Takze budeme cekat, posilat si grafy, a pak US zacne strilet siru do stratosfery aby "zachranilo planetu"
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: ad "relevantni modely, ze opravdu je mozne zpomalit civilizaci"

    muze se zdat, ze civilizaci nejde zpomalit, ale to je spis dusledek rozhodnuti nezpomalit (z obvious duvodu, je to kratkodobe nevyhodne) a impaktu soucasnych zpusobu vyroby a spotreby. z toho systemoveho pohledu vychazi spis to, ze rust vede k vycerpani zdroju a tim k poklesu civilizacni aktivity. ta vlna peaku populace, poklesu populace a pak zase pozdejsi mensi narust s tim souvisi.

    cili heavy weight civilization-buildery by mely spis zajimat modely jak je mozne nebyt v tom modernizacnim projektiku zpomalen dusledky teto cinnosti, jelikoz ta cinnost je vazana na ekosystemove i neekosystemove zdroje planety... tzn. "zpomaleni" (kolaps, pomoc!) je celkem jiste, pokud nedojde k zasadnimu decouplingu bud v te "zelene" nebo te mimo-planetarni verzi :)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    World’s renewable energy capacity grew at record pace in 2023 | Renewable energy | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/11/worlds-renewable-energy-capacity-grew-at-record-pace-in-2023
    ZAHRADKAR
    ZAHRADKAR --- ---
    YMLADRIS: a neni to zpusobene tim,ze inteligentnejsi a vzdelanejsi rodice maji mene nebo zadne deti? Jen hypoteza, data po ruce nemam..
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    pro zajimavot:

    - "The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption was truly extraordinary in that it injected about 300 billion pounds of water into the normally dry stratosphere, which is just an absolutely incredible amount of water from a single event,"
    - "Some material reached the lower mesosphere, more than 30 miles above the Earth's surface, altitudes never recorded from a volcanic eruption. Previous studies found that the eruption increased water vapor in the stratosphere by 10% worldwide, with even higher concentrations in some areas of the Southern Hemisphere."
    - The extra water vapor also had a cooling effect in the stratosphere, leading to a change in circulation, which drove decreases in ozone in the southern hemisphere and an increase of ozone over the tropics.
    - The researchers found that the peak decrease in ozone occurred in October, nine months after the eruption.
    - The eruption produced just over 192,000 flashes (made up of nearly 500,000 electrical pulses), peaking at 2,615 flashes per minute.
    - “It turns out, volcanic eruptions can create more extreme lightning than any other kind of storm on Earth.”
    - “The scale of these lightning rings blew our minds. We’ve never seen anything like that before, there’s nothing comparable in meteorological storms.
    - “It was like unearthing a dinosaur and seeing it walk around on four legs. Sort of takes your breath away,” Dr. Van Eaton said.

    Study examines how massive 2022 eruption changed stratosphere chemistry and dynamics
    https://phys.org/news/2023-11-massive-eruption-stratosphere-chemistry-dynamics.html
    Giant Eruption Plume from Tonga’s Volcano Produced Most Intense Lightning Rates Ever Detected | Sci.News
    https://www.sci.news/othersciences/geoscience/tongas-hunga-volcano-eruption-plume-lightning-12024.html
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    YMLADRIS: zije se v doomismu, protoze establishment ani soukroma sfera nevzali jako celek hrozby spojeny s klimatem skutecne vazne.
    idealni by v pripade muska bylo, kdyby nebyl far-right-climate-change-denier :-,D
    kam na tohle chodis?? :)))
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    YMLADRIS: problem neni sehnat inzenyry, problem je sehnat levne inzenyry.

    A to opravdu neni pripad Muska nebo Bezose, protoze ti by byli schopni to zaplatit ale nechtej

    A to nejsem komous :) ale tahle nerovnost me vazne sere
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    SCHWEPZ: nejsem si jista, zda mas zajem o dalsi hovor :)

    e/acc = manifest technooptimismu popisoval napr koubsky zde, ale ja to posunuju trochu dal (oni nerikaji ze je jen chvile jeste zkouset neco udelat nez se to rozpadne, oni rikaji ze uz se hrozne dlouho zije v doomismu a ze je potreba BUILDING hnuti). ale cely je to spis twitter projekt, nez ze by se to nejak vyznamne manifestovalo v realite. muskovi je rozpad ekosystemu imho jasnej

    ad zlepsit skolstvi. no ono to skolstvi se tak nejak zlepsuje porad a porad z toho vychazi tento graf a to jde jen o to kolik lidi neumi cist. natozpak nejaka špičkovost. Mozna jsou nejake geneticke limity, takze skutecne potrebujes našukat 3mld lidi kdyz chces vic inzenyru

    to, ze je nejslabsi misto jeho projektu je kde sehnat lidi, to rikal opakovane. Ono totiz dostatecne vyspely clovek neni jen 10x efektivnejsi ale treba taky 50x a pritom to neumime nejak vynahradit (kooperace ve skupine 100 lidi funguje uplne jinak nez mezi osmi lidma)

    s tou zatezi na biosferu je mi to jasny. ale jak pisu. dokud nejsou nejaky relevantni modely, ze opravdu je mozne zpomalit civilizaci (jako aniz bys vybombardoval mesta nebo tak), tak je to (degrowth) takova teoreticka vec..

    Technologie a trhy vyřeší jakýkoli problém lidstva, tvrdí miliardář ze Silicon Valley v Manifestu technooptimismu
    https://denikn.cz/1275926/technologie-a-trhy-vyresi-jakykoli-problem-lidstva-tvrdi-miliardar-ze-silicon-valley-v-manifestu-technooptimismu/?cst=6ca1fb0365498a9bffd4cb3fe9cd7ad8f9b98c76f073bb8f00652c5fe95e71bf

    E/acc = efektivni acceleracionismus, ma to byt odpoved na EA = efektivni altruismus, coz je hnuti ktere se snazi vypocitat jak efektivne delat dobro, ale posledni dobou se bohuzel ci bohudik zameruje predevsim na zpomaleni AI (vnimaji to jako existencalni hrozbu).

    kdyby te E/acc zajimalo nejak vic (prozkoumat nepritele :)) tak tuhle byl u Lexe Beff Jezos (neplest s Jeffem bezosem)

    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    YMLADRIS: je to tak, Japonsko, Korea, ale ta DEMOGRAFICKÁ PAST, je hrozbou i pro Rusko...

    nevím co je e/acc ale sousloví "AKCELEROVAT CIVILIZACI NA MAX NEŽ VYPUKNOU PROBLÉMY" mě jednak děsí, druhak připomíná Thomasův theorém: Situace definována jako reálná, se stává reálnou ve svých důsledcích (sociologie tomu říká "sebenapľnující se proroctví). Takto se každopádně nedá uvažovat...pokud má "málo inženýru" (o čemž pochybuji), tak posílím školství a vědu a nepostupují tak, že "našukám" další tři miliardy lidí :D

    Nicméně...rozumím kam míříš, málo kvalifikovaných lidí. Takže než hrstka vyvolených tech-miliardářů odletí na Mars, tak aby k tomu bodu došli, potřebují ještě pár miliard navrch (což ZVÝŠÍ DEGRADACI BIOSFÉRY, tenké slupky života, která udržuje vše živé ve známém vesmíru).

    Tohle doporučuji každopádně:

    Faktomluva - Hans Rosling | Databáze knih
    https://www.databazeknih.cz/knihy/faktomluva-381703
    Hans Rosling - Wikipedia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Rosling
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam