bububu

Climate change increased wind speeds for every 2024 Atlantic hurricane: Analysis | Climate Central
https://www.climatecentral.org/report/2024-hurricane-attribution

Key findings:
- All eleven hurricanes in 2024 (as of November 10) intensified by 9-28 mph during the record-breaking ocean warmth of the 2024 hurricane season, strengthening over waters made as much as 2.5°F warmer because of climate change.
- Climate change made elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tracks of 2024 hurricanes up to 800 times more likely.
- Human-warmed ocean temperatures made major hurricanes Helene and Milton even stronger, adding 16 mph and 23 mph, respectively.

snowball europe ,)

‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation | Oceans | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation

Novy data k AMOC collapse, vcetne pre-printu. Z cyklu #doomed

"We conclude that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation cannot be considered a low-probability event anymore." - Prof. Sybren Drijfhout et al.

x.com
https://x.com/ThierryAaron/status/1849842823954346187?t=XNLPa8bTOQZtPjDlQiJ3Sg&s=19

A cerstvy summary z guardianu

‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation | Oceans | The Guardian
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation

Modely zda se nezvladaji realitu zmen..

A somewhat unexpected situation is unfolding in the Atlantic as Oscar has rapidly intensified into a hurricane, exceeding all expectations. This represents an incredibly rare model failure. Hurricane warnings are now in effect for the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas.

x.com
https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1847709795656036764?t=dh9GRFqZ799i13CXfmP4uQ&s=19

počasí

Ex-Hurricane Kirk: Potential Severe Impact for Western Europe this week
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/hurricane-season-2024-forecast-major-storm-kirk-north-atlantic-uk-france-mk/

North Atlantic hurricane season 2024 is particularly busy with tropical systems this month, with multiple systems ongoing. One system caught our attention as it turned towards Europe—a major hurricane Kirk. It is forecast to accelerate across the North Atlantic and become an intense post-tropical storm, impacting France, the northwestern tip of Spain, and the UK.

MARSHUS: You know the #Atlantic is truly broken when models are forming tropical cyclones over the Sahara desert rather than the ocean.

Cant remember if I've ever seen solutions like this before. Remarkable!

#Tropics #HurricaneSeason

x.com
https://x.com/weatherman_aaa/status/1831454132445835341?s=19

Scientists have been warning of the rapidly declining North Atlantic salmon population for years, which in Norway has shrunk from more than a million in the early 1980s to about 500,000, a drop largely linked to the climate crisis. Now, the latest figures show Atlantic salmon stocks are at a historic low. Experts say the species is at imminent threat from salmon farming, which has led to escapes (including of sick fish), a dramatic rise in sea lice, and could result in wild salmon being replaced entirely by a hybrid species.

‘Like doomsday’: why have salmon deserted Norway’s rivers – and will they ever return? | Norway | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/29/like-doomsday-why-have-salmon-deserted-norway-rivers-and-will-they-ever-return

Byl jednou jeden chaos, epizoda prvni. Tesim se na dalsi predpovedi pocasi i klimaticke modely.

Nečekaně rychlé ochlazování Atlantského oceánu zaskočilo vědce. Netuší, proč se to děje – VTM.cz
https://vtm.zive.cz/clanky/necekane-rychle-ochlazovani-atlantskeho-oceanu-zaskocilo-vedce-netusi-proc-se-to-deje/sc-870-a-229862/default.aspx

Po více než rok trvajícím období, kdy teploty oceánů dosáhly rekordních výšin, nyní vědci pozorují v Atlantském oceánu nečekaný a rychlý pokles teplot. Tato změna je velice výrazná a nikdo si není jistý tím, co přesně ji způsobuje. Fenomén, který někteří odborníci označují jako „Atlantic Niña“, je překvapivý, protože přišel mnohem rychleji, než se očekávalo.

Ještě na počátku června byly teploty ve velké části Atlantiku o 1 až 3 °C vyšší než obvykle, přičemž některé oblasti byly dokonce až o 5 °C teplejší než průměr. V průběhu posledních tří měsíců ale došlo v rovníkové oblasti Atlantského oceánu k rekordně rychlému přechodu z horkých teplot na chladné.
...
Běžně dochází v průběhu roku k výkyvům teplot, ale současná situace se vymyká běžným vzorcům. Ochlazení může ovlivnit proudění vzduchu a oceánských proudů a vyvolat globální dopady, jako jsou změny v povětrnostních podmínkách či vliv na zemědělství v některých regionech.

Situace je zvlášť komplikovaná, protože přichází v době, kdy se očekává, že Tichý oceán přejde do fáze La Niña, což obvykle v některých částech světa přináší chladnější a sušší podmínky. Mohla by tak vzniknout dynamická a nevyzpytatelná situace, kdy oba hlavní oceány budou současně procházet významnými změnami teplot, což může zesílit jejich vliv na globální klima​.
...
Za poslední tři měsíce však teploty v této části Atlantiku klesly rychleji, než bylo kdy zaznamenáno (dle měření od roku 1982). Tak náhlý pokles je zarážející, protože se tentokrát neobjevily silné pasáty, které obvykle tento typ ochlazení způsobují. Franz Philip Tuchen z Univerzity v Miami na Floridě k tomu dodává: „Prošli jsme seznam možných mechanismů, ale zatím jsme nenalezli žádné uspokojivé vysvětlení.“

ZAHRADKAR: Na AMOC je jeden z top expertu Stephan Rahmstorf z Potsdamu. Mrkni na tuhle pulhodinovou prezentaci, shrnuje tam svuj cca 20let trvajici vyzkum v pulhodine

Tipping risk of the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation, AMOC. Keynote by Prof. Rahmstorf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHNNW8c_FaA


Konkretni projekce jsou v tomhle case (nejvetsi pruser pro Anglii a Skandivanii, s poklesem v zime az o 40 stupnu Celsia - s rychlosti 4 stupne za dekadu):

Tipping risk of the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation, AMOC. Keynote by Prof. Rahmstorf
https://youtu.be/ZHNNW8c_FaA?t=1726


Na rvoji otazku o kompenzaci odpovida tu (ano, na nejakych mistech to kompenzovat bude, ale je to takova tenka slupka na rozhrani mezi brutal ochlazenim kolem UK a Skandinavie a brutal oteplenim vsude mozne...) Jestli koukam dobre, tak je ale dobra sance, ze v ty slupce bysme zrovna mohli bejt my :D Aneb "aaalways look on the brighter side of life"

Tipping risk of the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation, AMOC. Keynote by Prof. Rahmstorf
https://youtu.be/ZHNNW8c_FaA?t=1807

Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣
@rahmstorf
Important preprint: https://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1

1. The authors identified where the #AMOC tipping point is in a state-of-the-art climate model.
2. They identified what are observable & robust precursor signs before tipping in the model.
3. They looked for such warning signs in real ocean data.
4. They found signs that the AMOC tipping point will likely be crossed around mid-century.

Note that the tipping point is where the AMOC collapse starts; it will then take decades to a century until it’s complete.

They found that the critical place to look for warning signs is in the South Atlantic at the latitude 34 South (the tip of South Africa). I first suggested this in a 1996 paper based on theoretical considerations.

Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse
https://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1

počasí

Beryl nears Caribbean as it becomes the earliest category 4 hurricane on record | Hurricanes | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/30/hurricane-beryl-earliest-category-4-on-record

It took Beryl only 42 hours to strengthen from a tropical depression to a major hurricane – a feat accomplished only six other times in Atlantic hurricane history, and with 1 September as the earliest date, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is now the earliest category 4 Atlantic hurricane on record, besting Hurricane Dennis, which became a category 4 storm on 8 July 2005, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry said.

“Beryl is an extremely dangerous and rare hurricane for this time of year in this area,” he said in a phone interview. “Unusual is an understatement. Beryl is already a historic hurricane and it hasn’t struck yet.”

TUHO: Tady kdyztak summary 30 let prace Rahmstorfa na tema. Relativne kratkej clanek, hodne dat, obrazku, srozumitelny pro vetsinu lidi

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has a major impact on climate, not just in the northern Atlantic but globally. Paleoclimatic data show it has been unstable in the past, leading to some of the most dramatic and abrupt climate shifts known. These instabilities are due to two different types of tipping points, one linked to amplifying feedbacks in the large-scale salt transport and the other in the convective mixing that drives the flow. These tipping points present a major risk of abrupt ocean circulation and climate shifts as we push our planet further out of the stable Holocene climate into uncharted waters.

Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point? | Oceanography
https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point

Prednaska Stefana Rahmstorfa o tipping pointech AMOC - Stefan je asi nejlepsi soucasnej expert na tema

Tipping risk of the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation, AMOC. Keynote by Prof. Rahmstorf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHNNW8c_FaA

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1787852180604817421

The ocean heat content in the Atlantic "Main Development Region" (MDR) is now about where it would typically be on July 21.
Ocean Heat Content
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/
This has already been a topic of casual/concerned conversation at #AMS36HURR.