A dalsi uz not so good news

The world may never go back to how it was after this monster El Niño | New Scientist
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2592450-the-world-may-never-go-back-to-how-it-was-after-this-monster-el-nino/

This El Niño is forecast to end around June next year after smashing all records, but its impacts could persist indefinitely in some parts of the world
By Michael Le Page
8 October 2026

The current El Niño is already the strongest on record and is forecast to get even stronger, peaking around November or December. Though it should be over by June next year, the effects of this monster event will continue to be felt long after that.

“I expect that this super El Niño event will drive multiple climate regime shifts like we’ve seen after past super El Niño events,” says hurricane specialist Jeff Masters. “Regime shifts tend to cause considerable trouble – significant disruptions to ecosystems and to the humans that depend on them.”

For instance, this El Niño is expected to lead to a devastating drought in the Amazon that could kill off some of the remaining areas of rainforest. This would release huge quantities of carbon dioxide and also make the whole region permanently drier, because much of the rainfall in rainforests comes from the water evaporating from trees.

The most ambitious ideas to save the world from El Niño
El Niños occur when warm water that has built up in the western Pacific spills east across the equator, making the surface of the eastern Pacific warmer than usual. An El Niño is said to be happening when the sea-surface temperature in one region along the equator is 0.5°C above average; at the time of writing, it is 3.4°C and climbing.

One reason why El Niños end is that the warm water that spreads across the Pacific slowly disperses. Some of it flows away from the equator and the water also cools as it transfers vast amounts of heat to the atmosphere, which leads to a sudden jump in global surface temperatures.

This year’s average temperature is on track to tie with 2024’s at around 1.6°C above the pre-industrial level, and 2027 is expected to reach 1.7°C or more. The next year could be a bit cooler if a La Niña makes the Pacific soak up more heat than usual, but we are on the brink of permanently crossing the 1.5°C threshold we were meant to avoid.

What happens below the surface of the Pacific also plays a key role in bringing about the end of El Niños. For instance, the arrival of warm water in the eastern Pacific triggers gigantic underwater waves known as Rossby waves that travel westwards. When these hit the continental shelf in the western Pacific months later, they bounce back eastwards in the form of cold, faster-moving Kelvin waves. These thin the layer of warm water in the eastern Pacific when they arrive several weeks later, helping deeper, colder water reach the surface and bring the El Niño to an end.

“Many different processes are involved in the onset, maturation and demise of El Niño events,” says Michael McPhaden at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

When will the El Niño end?
The combined forecasts of computer models suggest that this El Niño will be over by June next year, but individual models vary. Some suggest it could persist well into the northern hemisphere’s summer.

We can’t predict with any certainty how this event will end, says McPhaden. The 1997 El Niño ended with a bang, with sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific plummeting by 8°C in a month, followed by a strong, long-lasting La Niña. But the next strong El Niño in 2015 faded gradually and was followed by a weak, short La Niña.

“So, at this point, it is difficult to know precisely how the current El Niño will wind down,” says McPhaden. “Nature loves to confound us with new wrinkles in the epic saga of El Niño, so be prepared for surprises.”

What is certain is that the effects of this event will persist after it ends. Some will be temporary. For instance, the Indian Ocean can become warmer after El Niños – on top of the warming due to global heating – leading to floods in some nearby regions. Some of the worst floods in the Yangtze river occurred in the summer of 1998, after the El Niño that ended in May.

The biggest concern is that the current El Niño could lead to changes that last decades or more. Last year, Jong-Seong Kug at Seoul National University in South Korea and his colleagues published a study showing that the combination of extreme El Niños and global warming can produce climate regime shifts.

After the 2015 super El Niño, there was a sudden increase in sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico that has persisted ever since. The El Niño wasn’t the only factor involved, says Kug, but it contributed to this jump.

The even-stronger El Niño now under way is more likely to trigger such shifts. “We are experiencing a very strong El Niño event,” says Kug. “Based on our study, such an extreme event could substantially increase the likelihood that various components of the Earth system are pushed toward, or even across, regime-shift thresholds.”

In other words, in some parts of the world, the climate will never go back to how it was. “Our civilisation is adapted to the climate of the 20th century, and it is costly and disruptive to be forced to deal with sudden climate regime shifts,” says Masters.

From the agricultural sector to high schools, France is at its wit's end.
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2026/10/11/du-monde-agricole-aux-lycees-la-france-a-bout-de-nerfs_6791233_823448.html

Hit by drought, which has ravaged crops, but also by rising hydrocarbon prices that are driving up the cost of fuel and fertilizers, many farms are threatened.

The National Federation of Farmers' Unions (FNSEA), the main farmers' union, estimates losses at €10 billion. According to Bertrand Venteau, president of the Rural Coordination, "We're seeing losses of 30% across all models, and up to 70% for some ." The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that 30,000 farms are "in urgent need of substantial aid . " "The very survival of French agriculture is at stake ," warns Arnaud Rousseau, president of the FNSEA. On Thursday, October 8, the government announced zero-interest cash loans in addition to releasing more than 10 million barrels of oil onto the market. But these measures will not be enough to save those already facing bankruptcy.

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The rate of the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) increase and global Ocean Heat Content (OHC) increase (mostly to deep into the uppermost 2000 meter layer) more than doubled starting in ~2017 and is related to the strong El Niño (EN) of 2015-2016. With the 2026-2027 EN looking like it will be stronger by a large margin, the inference is that this could lead to a sharp additional rise in the rate of global OHC increase and of the EEI around 2028. If that is the case then a larger average global 2 m height air temperature increase is already baked in unless we drastically and very rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and existing atmospheric concentrations.

The sharp increase and subsequent acceleration in global OHC starting in ~2017 is primarily driven by accelerating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the accumulation of Earth's excess thermal energy deep within the ocean layers. Because the world's oceans absorb more than 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, full-depth OHC acts as the primary indicator of global warming, experiencing less year-to-year fluctuation from temporary weather events than surface temperatures do.

Scientists point to several overlapping factors that explain the distinct surge around 2017:

1. The planet experienced one of the most powerful El Niño events on record between 2015 and 2016. During an El Niño, vast amounts of ocean heat are released into the atmosphere, causing atmospheric surface temperatures to spike. Once that cycle ended, the ocean surface cooled slightly, but the ongoing global energy imbalance meant the oceans immediately resumed absorbing massive amounts of heat. Instead of staying at the surface, this heat was mixed and stored deep into the 0–2000 meter layers.

2. According to findings published by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), the sharp spike in 2017 was not uniform across the planet. An unusually massive amount of thermal energy was deposited into the Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean, pushing full OHC to record-breaking thresholds—absorbing an extra 1.51 x 10^22 Joules compared to previous baselines.

3. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that 2017 saw atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations hit 405 parts per million (ppm), which was the highest in modern recorded history. Currently it is 427 to 429 ppm. As these gases trap more energy, Earth’s energy imbalance worsens, forcing the oceans to continually uptake greater quantities of heat at a much faster rate.

4. According to data tracked by NASA’s Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), the upper 200 meters of the ocean saw a pronounced acceleration in heat content right after 2017. This acceleration means that the ocean is warming more than twice as fast over the last decade compared to previous decades.

Because water has a much higher heat capacity than air (the oceans have a total heat capacity about 1,000 times that of the atmosphere) the oceans act as Earth's primary climate buffer.

In 2025, ocean heat content (OHC) set yet another consecutive record high, storing an immense volume of energy.

The oceans absorb about 90% of the EEI while EEI is accelerating. While the total amount of heat the ocean absorbs is skyrocketing - because the total EEI is accelerating - the 90% share is projected to remain relatively stable in the near future, though subtle shifts are possible.

The absolute velocity of heat absorption is accelerating. Due to rising greenhouse gases and declining global reflectivity (albedo) from melting ice and fewer marine clouds, the Earth's total energy imbalance has dramatically widened. 👉The rate of ocean warming has effectively quadrupled over the past four decades.👈

As the top layer of the ocean warms, it becomes less dense than the cold water beneath it, leading to increased stratification (layering). This makes it harder for the ocean to mix. If the warm surface layer cannot efficiently transport heat down into the deep ocean, the surface layer will heat up even faster. Over a long timeframe, this could decrease the ocean’s efficiency as a heat sink, leaving a slightly higher fraction of heat to remain in the atmosphere and accelerate land warming.

Large -scale ocean currents like the AMOC act as a conveyor belt that pushes heat into the deep ocean. Climate models indicate that as fresh meltwater from glaciers flows into the sea, the AMOC may weaken. A weaker conveyor belt alters regional heat uptake patterns and reduces how effectively the deep ocean stores excess energy.

While the ocean’s heat absorption remains high, its carbon dioxide absorption is a different story. The ocean absorbs about 25–30% of human-emitted CO2. However, warmer water physically holds less dissolved gas. Scientists have observed that the ocean’s carbon sink capacity is showing signs of weakening during extreme heat years. If the ocean absorbs less CO2, atmospheric CO2 will rise faster, widening the EEI and forcing the ocean to absorb even more heat.

More: https://ecco-group.org/ohc.htm

John Scheve - No one wants to say this but the...
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17zDTPumGv/

the Mediterranean and even the Bay of Biscay will soon be mostly dead marine biomes as well as enhanced catalysts for severe thunderstorms, torrential flooding rains, tornadoes, stronger mid latitude cyclones, heavier winter snowfall and even Medicanes in late summer.

Marine Heat Waves (MHWs) are becoming perpetual though annually oscillating in intensity and are generally amplifying year to year. The more sheltered and shallow the body of water the more rapid the heating in calm sunny conditions. When the uppermost ocean is highly stratified as it is increasingly, MHWs can intensify stunningly fast even in the open deep Pacific. The North Pacific marine heatwave which is worst in the NW Pacific now, has recently warmed at a staggering 1 to 2 degrees C per week under calm sunny conditions with sinking air under an atmospheric high pressure dome. These conditions are increasing over the oceans in tandem with MHWs in an amplifying mutual feedback.

Generally speaking, climate and marine feedbacks and mutual amplifications are kicking in with ferocious speed now as global atmospheric warming accelerates - both far faster than modeling predicted. Climate models ignore many feedbacks and amplifications and use linear extrapolations for others which has rendered them useless. Plus climate sensitivity is likely 2 to 3 times greater than modeled due to the accelerating Earth Energy Imbalance caused by our increasing greenhouse gas emissions and the surprising relative reduction of outgoing long wave energy from the upper atmosphere associated with cloud reduction and cloud dimming over warmer ocean surfaces and higher levels of water vapor (the most powerful greenhouse gas).

If we don’t find a way to stop the accelerating heat absorption of the world ocean we will not stop the trajectory towards extinction we are now in.

Image: Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) showing an SSTA for the date of + 5.2 degrees C (+ 9.4 degrees F) in the open Mediterranean Sea as of yesterday from earth.nullschool.net

2026 Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly - G. Foster, S. Rahmstorf
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL118804

The rise in global temperature has been widely considered to be quite steady for several decades since the 1970s. Recently, however, scientists have started to debate whether global warming has accelerated since then. It is difficult to be sure of that because of natural fluctuations in the warming rate, and so far no statistical significance (meaning 95% certainty) of an acceleration (increase in warming rate) has been demonstrated. In this study we subtract the estimated influence of El Niño events, volcanic eruptions and solar variations from the data, which makes the global temperature curve less variable, and it then shows a statistically significant acceleration of global warming since about the year 2015. Warming proceeding faster is not unexpected by climate models, but it is a cause of concern and shows how insufficient the efforts to slow and eventually stop global warming under the Paris Climate Accord have so far been.

Interesting interview with Earth scientist Bill McGuire.

One of the most concerning points he discusses is a new (as yet unreviewed) paper suggesting that current satellite observations aren't matching our understanding of Earth's energy imbalance. In other words, the planet appears to be warming faster than existing models can fully explain. As this paper has not yet been peer reviewed, these findings should be treated as provisional until they have undergone independent scientific scrutiny. If they do hold up, they suggest we could exceed 2°C of warming by around 2040, approach 3°C by around 2050, and continue rising thereafter, pushing Earth's climate towards temperatures not experienced for millions of years.

The video also explores the economic consequences of climate breakdown.

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the professionals who assess financial risk for banks, insurers and pension funds argue that many economic models are fundamentally underestimating climate risk. Their concern is that most financial institutions treat climate impacts as isolated events, rather than recognising that droughts, crop failures, floods, migration, conflict and supply chain disruption can cascade into one another, creating far greater economic damage than the sum of the individual parts.

Their warning is stark. Without immediate action to change course, severe climate impacts are not only plausible but could threaten future global prosperity.

To illustrate the scale of the disagreement, many mainstream economic models still rely on assumptions originating from a model published in 2000, which estimated climate change would reduce global GDP by only around 3% by 2100. By contrast, actuarial risk assessments, produced by people whose job is to price and underwrite multi billion dollar financial risks, warn of around a 15% reduction in global GDP by 2050, rising to as much as 50% by 2100. Some actuarial scenarios even suggest the possibility of widespread societal breakdown beginning around the 2040s, with catastrophic human consequences later this century.

It does make you wonder whether the old contrarian slogan, "We are the carbon they want to get rid of," has ended up applying in the opposite direction.

The Insurance Industry Predicts Mass Death: How Do We Live A Good Life?
https://youtu.be/9Q93ZE54yaE?is=q0M2JBIgKLEgw6ZZ&t=4m0

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/30/climate/hunga-tonga-volcano-eruption-methane

A volcano that erupted in the South Pacific in 2022 destroyed some of its own methane emissions, and scientists now think the chemistry behind it could become a new tool against one of the most potent planet-heating gases.

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption on 15 January 2022 was one of the most violent of modern times, hundreds of times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, with a sonic boom that circled the planet twice. New research published in Nature Communications found that it also cleaned up after itself.

Studying satellite data, scientists spotted a huge cloud of formaldehyde, a gas that forms when methane is broken down. "We found a huge cloud of formaldehyde that should normally not be there", said study author Maarten van Herpen. They tracked it for 10 days, and since formaldehyde lasts only a few hours, the methane destruction must have continued for over a week.

The eruption blasted enough salty water vapour into the stratosphere to fill around 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. Sunlight hitting that salty mixture appears to have produced chlorine, which reacted with methane and broke it down, the same process previously observed when Saharan dust blows over the Atlantic. The team estimates the eruption produced around 330,000 tons of methane, of which roughly 900 tons were destroyed each day.

Why it matters: methane is about 80 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide over 20 years and accounts for roughly a third of global warming. Because it is short-lived, cutting it could slow warming relatively quickly. The findings raise the possibility of injecting iron-based particles into the air over the ocean to mimic the effect.

Independent scientists are cautious. Pete Edwards of the University of York called the results interesting but "very difficult" to confirm, warning of "potential unintended consequences on climate, air pollution and ecosystem health". Emily Dowd of the University of Leeds said the chemistry still needs thorough testing in atmospheric models before anyone counts on it.

PAN_SPRCHA:

Trump posted that the UN just admitted climate change projections were “WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!” and declared victory over what he called 15 years of Democratic fearmongering. He has no idea what he’s talking about. Scientists who build climate models recently retired their most extreme worst-case scenario (called RCP8.5) because it assumed coal use would explode and no clean energy policies would ever be enacted. Turns out renewable energy got cheap fast and some countries actually did act. So the absolute doomsday end of the projection range got updated. The new projections still show roughly 3 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100.

Trump posted that the UN just... - Alt National Park Service
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1DWvf2WbKx/

Models are highly confident on a Blue Ocean Event this summer.
Reddit - The heart of the internet
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1rl7z9m/models_are_highly_confident_on_a_blue_ocean_event/

Flooded Futures: Understanding the Rising Threats and How We Prepare | Stefan Rahmstorf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtd8ZFWIFMA


Flooding has shaped human settlement for millennia—but the scale, speed and complexity of flood risk in the 21st century are unprecedented. In this opening keynote at the Holcim Foundation Forum 2025, climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf sets the scientific foundation for the Forum, outlining why flood risk is accelerating globally and why urgent, coordinated action is now unavoidable.

Rahmstorf presents the full spectrum of flooding—from coastal, riverine and pluvial flooding to groundwater and compound flood events—showing how multiple hazards increasingly coincide to create extreme impacts. Drawing on the latest climate science, he explains how rising sea levels, intensifying storms and shifting precipitation patterns are being amplified by urbanisation, land-use change and ageing infrastructure designed for past conditions.

A central focus of the talk is time. Rahmstorf challenges the audience to consider what we are planning for—and over what horizons—by examining projections for 2050 and 2100, the limits and strengths of flood models, and the growing role of real-time data, AI-driven analysis and historical records in improving preparedness.

The keynote also addresses the wider societal consequences of flooding, including cascading infrastructure failures, economic exposure, climate migration and the question of who ultimately pays for precautionary measures. Closing the talk, Rahmstorf frames the critical questions that will guide the Forum discussions, positioning the Retreat – Resist – Respond framework as essential for navigating an era of accelerating climate risk.

TADEAS:




Europe drove decarbonization of power supply but did not drive electrification. They're on the top left-hand side above the Americans, but not on the top right-hand side where the Chinese are to be found.

- The Germans and Italians shut down nuclear as an essential part of their politics of green modernization, but they agonizingly extended the protection for the coal sectors.
- They created a market for power supply through feed-in tariffs, then surrendered that market to the Chinese, and then slapped on protectionism anyway.
- They introduced the carbon pricing mechanism but took almost fifteen years to make it work. It now does work—carbon prices in Europe are at very significant levels, sometimes above one hundred euros per ton—but they were unprepared for the shock of delivering that particular price signal.
- Rather than focusing on new energy models, European politics and interest groups converged on the diesel, and the European car industry was milked as a source of dividends for its oligarchic investors. And they now complain about Chinese competition and demand protectionism.
- The Europeans were clearly at odds with both Russia and the US, and yet did nothing to develop strategic autonomy with regard to either of them.






On the left-hand side, the ramp-up you see: the formation period of this new synthesis of green governance in Europe through to the maximum level of investment in 2011 at $131 billion. And then you see, in the wake of the Eurozone crisis—which of course dramatically affected southern Europe, where unsurprisingly the investment in solar was particularly dramatic—as that crisis hits under the sign of austerity, the European push collapses. And this is the moment of China's overtaking.

CO2 can stimulate plant growth, but only when enough nitrogen is available—and that key ingredient has been seriously miscalculated. A new study finds that natural nitrogen fixation has been overestimated by about 50 percent in major climate models. This means the climate-cooling benefits of plant growth under high CO2 are smaller than expected. The result: a reduced buffer against climate change and more uncertainty in future projections.

Plants can’t absorb as much CO2 as climate models predicted | ScienceDaily
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/01/260104202809.htm

With the Atlantic hurricane season nearly over, a new champion has emerged in predicting both track and intensity of hurricanes: Google DeepMind.

"DeepMind outpaced even the gold-standard corrected consensus models as well as the National Hurricane Center’s official track forecasts this year.

The hurricane-specific model was introduced back in June and is trained on historical global weather data as well as information from global tropical cyclone records over the past 45 years.

The beauty of DeepMind and other similar data-driven, AI-based weather models is how much more quickly they produce a forecast compared to their traditional physics-based counterparts that require some of the most expensive and advanced supercomputers in the world. Beyond that, these “smart” models with their neural network architectures have the ability to learn from their mistakes and correct on-the-fly."

This Hurricane Season, Two Forecast Models Stand Out, but for Very Different Reasons
https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/this-hurricane-season-two-forecast

TUHO: btw

Praci Travise a Ranu muzete najit treba v prestiznich casacich z Nature Portfolio
Tady detekovaly mizinformace v nekolika milionech tweetu

Hierarchical machine learning models can identify stimuli of climate change misinformation on social media | Communications Earth & Environment
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01573-7

Tady zase detekovaly u think tanku financovanych fosilnim prumyslem

Computer-assisted classification of contrarian claims about climate change | Scientific Reports
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-01714-4

Nejaky starsi opacko

27 -- The evidence for climate change WITHOUT computer models or the IPCC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJ6Z04VJDco

TUHO: A k tehle knizce ma i pekne stranky koukam

Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast, a textbook for non-science major undergraduates, Blackwell-Wiley, 2006 with Second Edition 2011. The book is supplemented with a web page of =on-line interactive models which provide the basis for exercises in the book.

Climate and Carbon Cycle Models
https://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/