Pardon za délku, líbilo se mi na redditu, ještě jsem výrazně zkrátila :)

hyperobjects are a concept introduced by philosopher timothy morton to describe things so vast in scale, duration, or interconnectedness, existing through such vast expanses of space *and* time that they transcend the biological capabilities of human perception and comprehension. they are objects or phenomena that we interact with but cannot fully grasp due to their inherent complexity and distributed nature. hyperobjects include things like climate change, radioactive materials, global capitalism, or even the internet.

hyperobjects exist on such expansive spatial and temporal scales that they are quite literally everywhere and nowhere all at once. for example, you can experience the effects of climate change (like extreme weather), but you can never point to a single, tangible "climate change" because it is dispersed across the entire globe and throughout time. hyperobjects persist over timeframes that dwarf human lifespans. radioactive waste and climate change remain dangerous for thousand of years, potentially outlasting human civilization.

hyperobjects stick to you and are inescapable. you might try to avoid thinking about a hyperobject, but its presence infiltrates daily life like the slow creep of rising sea levels or the omnipresence microplastics in the air you breathe, the water you drink, and the soil your food is grown in.

hyperobjects exist not in isolation but in constant interaction with other objects and systems. for instance, the carbon cycle connects human industry, ecosystems, and atmospheric chemistry in ways that cannot be disentangled. hyperobjects are real, but they don’t appear fully at once. you can only perceive fragments of them through their effects (melting glaciers or sulfur dioxide in maritime shipping fuel) and through the models used to understand them (e.g., CMIP6).

hyperobjects push beyond what is called humanity’s epistemic horizon, the boundary of what we can conceptually process. they are too vast in both space and time, existing beyond the direct experience of one human lifespan. the geological timescales of climate change make it challenging to fully perceive its urgency or consequences. the causes and effects of hyperobjects are enmeshed in complex systems, making them harder to discern. global warming involves atmospheric chemistry, ocean currents, human behavior, economic systems and things we aren't even aware of. all of which often manifests indirectly, requiring abstract models, simulations, and data interpretation over time for us to engage with them meaningfully.

this sheer scale and complexity often leads to psychological overwhelm or cognitive dissonance, resulting in denial or inaction. humans often approach hyperobjects by breaking them into smaller, more manageable parts like focusing on reducing personal carbon footprints rather than addressing systemic industrial ecocide. even just recognizing a hyperobject requires collective action, interdisciplinary research, and systems-level thinking, again, over time. meaningfully addressing climate change would necessitate coordination between nations, localities, municipalities, industries, and individuals.

art, literature, and philosophy are further ways humans historically seem to engage with hyperobjects. perhaps the abstract, individual, hyperobject-like elements of art itself help to make hyperobjects themselves more relatable and comprehensible, even if only metaphorically. art can influence individuals as well as entire cultures.

COVID-19, UAPs (unidentified aerial phenomena also known as ''the phenomena''), and AI all exhibit hyperobject-like characteristics. Also consciousness.

nekdo random na redditu se snazi rozebrat dynamiku mezi ruznymi klimatology

SS: We Study Climate Change. We Can’t Explain What We’re Seeing. - Gavin Schmidt (Head of GISS) and Zeke Hausfather (Berkeley Earth)

This "opinion" piece in today's NYT is basically a position statement from the Moderate faction in Climate Science. Schmidt and Hausfather are the "serious science" voices in that faction. As opposed to people like Michael Mann who pushes "hopium" and has stated that he views "doomism" as a "mental illness".

It's significant both for what it says and for what it doesn't say.

What it says that's important:

"The earth has been exceptionally warm of late, with every month from June 2023 until this past September breaking records."

"It has been considerably hotter even than climate scientists expected."

"Average temperatures during the past 12 months have also been above the goal set by the Paris climate agreement: to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels."

-translation: We are now above +1.5°C, WAY sooner than the Moderates thought it was going to happen.

"the unusual jump in global temperatures starting in mid-2023 appears to be higher than our models predicted (even as they generally remain within the expected range)."

-translation: The temperatures are GENERALLY within "the expected range" of the Moderate General Climate Models BUT at the HIGH END of the models. Meaning "Climate Sensitivity" to 2XCO2 is probably higher than they thought.

"While there have been many partial hypotheses — new low-sulfur fuel standards for marine shipping, a volcanic eruption in 2022, lower Chinese aerosol emissions and El Niño perhaps behaving differently than in the recent past."

-translation: 4 years ago we COMPLETELY ignored James Hansen when he predicted up to +0.6°C of warming from the change in marine diesel. Zeke estimated only +0.06°C of warming would result from that change. We would rather DIE than admit Hansen was right, but NOTHING ELSE explains what's happened.

"we remain far from a consensus explanation even more than a year after we first noticed the anomalies. And that makes us uneasy."

-translation: We don't know what's going on and we're scared.

"Why is it taking so long for climate scientists to grapple with these questions?"

-translation: The theories and models of the Moderates aren't working is why BUT they cannot admit that the Alarmists might have been right all along. So now, they are spending a LOT of time trying out EVERY OTHER possible explanation.

"It turns out that we do not have systems in place to explore the significance of shorter-term phenomena in the climate in anything approaching real time. But we need them badly. It’s now time for government science agencies to provide more timely updates in response to the rapid changes in the climate."

-translation: We need MORE MONEY to build out a better climate monitoring system.

Which is what the rest of the piece is a plea for.

The graphs are interesting and give a good idea of just how much 2023 and 2024 have been OFF THE CHARTS bad.

clanek zde https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-heat-planet.html?unlocked_article_code=1.aU4.yUZL.WUVZeJCH6AiT&smid=re-share

Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year. Is nature’s carbon sink failing?
The sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into climate models – and could rapidly accelerate global heating

It begins each day at nightfall. As the light disappears, billions of zooplankton, crustaceans and other marine organisms rise to the ocean surface to feed on microscopic algae, returning to the depths at sunrise. The waste from this frenzy – Earth’s largest migration of creatures – sinks to the ocean floor, removing millions of tonnes of carbon from the atmosphere each year.

This activity is one of thousands of natural processes that regulate the Earth’s climate. Together, the planet’s oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks absorb about half of all human emissions.

But as the Earth heats up, scientists are increasingly concerned that those crucial processes are breaking down.

Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year. Is nature’s carbon sink failing? | Oceans | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/14/nature-carbon-sink-collapse-global-heating-models-emissions-targets-evidence-aoe?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

‘Oh my God, what is that?’: how the maelstrom under Greenland’s glaciers could slow future sea level rise | Glaciers | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/sep/06/how-the-maelstrom-under-greenlands-glaciers-could-slow-future-sea-level-rise

current models do not take account of a big possible factor: the huge mounds of ground rock that some glaciers pile up in front of them, blocking their paths and insulating them from ever hotter oceans. These could function as “speed bumps”, effectively slowing the impact of global heating. But the role this plays is unknown because researchers had never been able to scrutinise the hellish zone where mighty glaciers, rock and ocean meet.

TERMINUS: Studying Greenland’s Underwater Glacial Walls
https://ig.utexas.edu/terminus-studying-greenlands-underwater-glacial-walls/

MARSHUS: You know the #Atlantic is truly broken when models are forming tropical cyclones over the Sahara desert rather than the ocean.

Cant remember if I've ever seen solutions like this before. Remarkable!

#Tropics #HurricaneSeason

x.com
https://x.com/weatherman_aaa/status/1831454132445835341?s=19

Hybrid AI supercharges climate models

A machine-learning tool slashes the computing power needed to predict future climate and could help us be better prepared for extreme weather events. The tool, co-developed by Google, combines AI machine learning with conventional weather forecasting. It opens the door for faster forecasting that is less energy-intensive than existing tools, and better at predicting long-term forecasts than purely AI-based approaches. “The issue with pure machine-learning approaches is that you’re only ever training it on data it’s already seen,” says AI researcher Scott Hosking. “The climate is continuously changing, we’re going into the unknown, so our machine-learning models have to extrapolate into that unknown future.”

Google AI predicts long-term climate trends and weather — in minutes
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02391-9

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9

Using our new range of pCO2 values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity,
resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively. These values are significantly higher than
IPCC global warming estimations, consistent or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models, and
consistent with other proxy-based estimates.

Pre-industrial CO2 level = 280ppm, doubling tedy je 560ppm
Momentální hladina CO2 ~425ppm (CO2eq ~520ppm)

RCP8.5 scénář odhaduje 560ppm v roce ~2052
RCP6 scénář v roce ~2070
RCP4.5 stabilizaci těsně pod 560ppm

Nutno dodat, že tyto scénáře nepočítají s:
- vyčerpáním zdrojů = lepší scénář (jsem názoru, že nemáme dostatek finančně/technologicky/energeticky dostupných fosilních paliv, abychom se do konce století drželi RCP8.5)
- pozitivními zpětnými vazbamy a body zvratu/zlomu = horší scénář (IPCC podceňuje, nebo vůbec nepočítá s mnoha zpětnými vazbami a body zvratu/zlomu, které by mimo naši kontrolu začali CO2 (CO2eq) emitovat)

YMLADRIS: tohle se vyresi do par let trhem

Napr nize.

Performance and energy efficiency: a new AI chip for edge computing - Hello Future Orange
https://hellofuture.orange.com/en/iot-new-energy-efficient-chips-could-expand-the-scope-of-artificial-intelligence-in-edge-computing/

- An innovative chip architecture that can run on 44 times less energy than the graphics processors used for AI.

Nebo skrze breakdown LLM modelu na spefializovane modely

AI energy consumption: Can we produce efficient models?
https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/ai-energy-consumption-can-we-produce-efficient-models/45920/

- The study shows that by opting for other types of models or by adjusting models, AI energy consumption can be reduced by 70-80% during the training and deployment phase, with only a 1% or less decrease in performance.

Spis me zajma jak dopadne btc. Nekde uz tezbu regulujou, nekde se nevyplaci, ale trzni greed porad umoznuje preziti, za vzrustajici energy...

Tak schvalne

Google builds an AI model that can predict future weather catastrophes | Live Science
https://www.livescience.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/google-builds-ai-model-seeds-that-can-predict-future-weather-catastrophes

SEEDS produces prediction models from physical measurements collected by weather agencies. In particular, it looks at the relationships between the potential energy unit per mass of Earth's gravity field in the mid-troposphere and sea level pressure — two common measures used in forecasting.

TUHO: In this video I summarize the main pieces of evidence that we have which show that climate change is caused by humans. This is most important that we know in which frequency range carbon dioxide absorbs light, we know that the carbon dioxide ratio in the atmosphere has been increasing, we know that the Ph-value of the oceans has been decreasing, the ratio of carbon isotopes in the atmosphere has been changing, and the stratosphere has been cooling, which was one of the key predictions of climate models from the 1960s.

Tenth consecutive monthly heat record alarms and confounds climate scientists | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/global/2024/apr/09/tenth-consecutive-monthly-heat-record-alarms-confounds-climate-scientists

Global surface temperatures in March were 0.1C higher than the previous record for the month, set in 2016, and 1.68C higher than the pre-industrial average, according to data released on Tuesday by the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

This is the 10th consecutive monthly record in a warming phase that has shattered all previous records. Over the past 12 months, average global temperatures have been 1.58C above pre-industrial levels.

This, at least temporarily, exceeds the 1.5C benchmark set as a target in the Paris climate agreement but that landmark deal will not be considered breached unless this trend continues on a decadal scale.

The UK Met Office previously predicted the 1.5C goal could be surpassed over the period of a year and other leading climate monitoring organisations said the current levels of heating remain within the bounds anticipated by computer models.