nekdo random na redditu se snazi rozebrat dynamiku mezi ruznymi klimatology

SS: We Study Climate Change. We Can’t Explain What We’re Seeing. - Gavin Schmidt (Head of GISS) and Zeke Hausfather (Berkeley Earth)

This "opinion" piece in today's NYT is basically a position statement from the Moderate faction in Climate Science. Schmidt and Hausfather are the "serious science" voices in that faction. As opposed to people like Michael Mann who pushes "hopium" and has stated that he views "doomism" as a "mental illness".

It's significant both for what it says and for what it doesn't say.

What it says that's important:

"The earth has been exceptionally warm of late, with every month from June 2023 until this past September breaking records."

"It has been considerably hotter even than climate scientists expected."

"Average temperatures during the past 12 months have also been above the goal set by the Paris climate agreement: to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels."

-translation: We are now above +1.5°C, WAY sooner than the Moderates thought it was going to happen.

"the unusual jump in global temperatures starting in mid-2023 appears to be higher than our models predicted (even as they generally remain within the expected range)."

-translation: The temperatures are GENERALLY within "the expected range" of the Moderate General Climate Models BUT at the HIGH END of the models. Meaning "Climate Sensitivity" to 2XCO2 is probably higher than they thought.

"While there have been many partial hypotheses — new low-sulfur fuel standards for marine shipping, a volcanic eruption in 2022, lower Chinese aerosol emissions and El Niño perhaps behaving differently than in the recent past."

-translation: 4 years ago we COMPLETELY ignored James Hansen when he predicted up to +0.6°C of warming from the change in marine diesel. Zeke estimated only +0.06°C of warming would result from that change. We would rather DIE than admit Hansen was right, but NOTHING ELSE explains what's happened.

"we remain far from a consensus explanation even more than a year after we first noticed the anomalies. And that makes us uneasy."

-translation: We don't know what's going on and we're scared.

"Why is it taking so long for climate scientists to grapple with these questions?"

-translation: The theories and models of the Moderates aren't working is why BUT they cannot admit that the Alarmists might have been right all along. So now, they are spending a LOT of time trying out EVERY OTHER possible explanation.

"It turns out that we do not have systems in place to explore the significance of shorter-term phenomena in the climate in anything approaching real time. But we need them badly. It’s now time for government science agencies to provide more timely updates in response to the rapid changes in the climate."

-translation: We need MORE MONEY to build out a better climate monitoring system.

Which is what the rest of the piece is a plea for.

The graphs are interesting and give a good idea of just how much 2023 and 2024 have been OFF THE CHARTS bad.

clanek zde https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-heat-planet.html?unlocked_article_code=1.aU4.yUZL.WUVZeJCH6AiT&smid=re-share

GLOBETROTTER: Jo a ten Dan je politolog, ktery je ve skutecnosi predni svetovy expert na vytrhavani z kontextu. Vzdycky vytahne par cisel, ktery prekrouti a opentli to historkama, ze skutecni odbornici jsou nuzaci, kteri vsechny jenom strasi. Ostatne kdysi mu to prineslo i nepekny assesment od panelu pro vedeckou necestnost, ktery ovsem Lomborg s pomoci svych spojencu v politicie zametl pod koberec a bohuzel nakonec setreni vyznelo do ztracena.
Ethics panel attacks environment book | Nature
https://www.nature.com/articles/421201a

Vysla o nem i pekmna knizka Lomborg Deception na Yale University Press

The Lomborg Deception
https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300171280/the-lomborg-deception/

Ostatne pekna databaze Lomborgovych omylu je napriklad i zde:
Lomborg Errors
http://lomborg-errors.dk/

Obvykly zpusob Lomborgovi prace:



viz
RealClimate: Bjørn Lomborg, just a scientist with a different opinion?
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/08/bjorn-lomborg-just-a-scientist-with-a-different-opinion/

Moc bych se nedivil, kdyby byl financovanej fosilnim prumyslem, nejaky naznaky v tomhle smeru existujou. Ale vetsina zdroju je neverejnych, takze tezko rict.

Exclusive: Bjorn Lomborg Think Tank Funder Revealed As Billionaire Republican 'Vulture Capitalist' Paul Singer - DeSmog
https://www.desmog.com/2015/02/05/exclusive-bjorn-lomborg-think-tank-funder-revealed-billionaire-republican-vulture-capitalist-paul-singer/

Bjorn Lomborg and the mysterious millions
https://theecologist.org/2014/jun/26/bjorn-lomborg-and-mysterious-millions

To je naprostej idiot

Be Wary What You Wish For: Trump 2.0 Will Retract Climate Laws - CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2024/07/12/be-wary-what-you-wish-for-trump-2-0-will-retract-climate-laws/

Another Trump administration would revise nearly every forward-looking Biden-Harris administration action, including breakthrough legislation to mitigate the effects of the climate crisis. The Sierra Club warns that “everything from rules to curb hazardous air pollutants to programs that help make cleaner and more energy-efficient purchases affordable would be on the chopping block” if Trump 2.0 becomes a reality.

...

Trump: The former president said, “In my opinion, you have a thing called weather, and you go up, and you go down. If you look into the 1920s, they were talking about a global freezing, okay? In other words, the globe was going to freeze.’”
...
Trump: “The global warming hoax, it just never ends,” he said, also referring to the climate crisis as “nonexistent” and “created by the Chinese.”
...
Trump: Trump has called renewable energy “a scam business.” His campaign asserts that, under the Trump administration, “without sacrificing any economic gains, American energy became cleaner than ever before.”
...
Trump: “I hate wind,” Trump told the executives over a meal of chopped steak at his Mar-a-Lago Club and resort in Florida. “The windmills (sic) aren’t working, the most expensive form of energy ever.”
...
Trump: “And we have other things that are also no good. It’s called the Green New Deal — I call it the Green New Hoax

Atd.

PER2: nejen Indie

Phoenix Is Facing a Deadly Hurricane Katrina of Heat Spurred by Climate Change - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-29/phoenix-is-facing-a-deadly-hurricane-katrina-of-heat-spurred-by-climate-change

nicméně Tadeasuv komentář platí.

Elon Musk was inspired to revolutionize the auto industry to help save the planet from climate change. This week, his rocket company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., may have done more to fight climate change than all the Teslas on the road.

Michael R. Bloomberg: SpaceX Launch Opens New Front In Climate Fight - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-07/michael-r-bloomberg-methane-tracking-satellite-s-powerful-potential?srnd=prognosis&;embedded-checkout=true

The public debate on climate policies and decarbonisation measures is undergoing significant changes in the European Union. Public opinion in Member States across the EU is influenced by a number of interrelated challenges - be it rising energy prices, the need to ensure energy security, or the demand for rapid implementation of measures under the European Green Deal. The clash between economic interests and environmental objectives has become a central issue across the EU and represents a major challenge to public acceptance of the forthcoming economic transformation.

Clash of Perspectives: Analyzing the Climate Debates in CEE+ Region before the 2024 Election - Association for International Affairs
https://www.amo.cz/en/climate-team/clash-of-perspectives-analyzing-the-climate-debates-in-cee-region-before-the-2024-election/

Climate crisis calls for U-turn in EU’s economic governance – EURACTIV.com
https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/opinion/climate-crisis-calls-for-u-turn-in-eus-economic-governance/

Already 50 years ago, Dutch politician Sicco Mansholt, who was at the time the European Commissioner for Agriculture, wrote to the President of the European Commission a legacy letter, in light of the findings of the Club of Rome “Limits to growth” report.

He wrote that a fundamentally different policy needs to be pursued to prevent the world from ‘breaking down’ and that the economy should no longer be aiming at maximising GDP growth per capita.

He called for giving priority to food production; reducing material goods, compensated for by increasing immaterial goods (education, intellectual development, use of free time, access to culture); prolonging the life-span of ‘capital goods’ (which we today call ending programmed obsolescence, ensuring goods and products can be repaired, re-used, then recycled in a circular economy); avoiding the production of ‘non-essential’ products (today, private jets and SUVs are on the spotlight for their huge environmental impact and their uselessness); and combating pollution and the depletion of natural resources.

...

Investors will refrain from putting their savings in certain countries or regions, making access to finance more difficult for countries most exposed to extreme weather events.

...

But as recently stressed by Mario Draghi, no single country can curb climate change on its own: “Just as the euro cannot be stable if large parts of the monetary union are failing, climate change cannot be solved by Germany reducing its carbon emissions faster than Italy.”

...

1) Include the ‘Do No Significant Harm to climate and environment’ principle as an assessment criterion for investments and reforms committed by member states.

(2) Include an obligation for national governments to integrate a socially just and time-bound reduction of fossil fuel subsidies in their fiscal-structural plans.

(3) Require Member States to use Green Budgeting tools when presenting their national budgets to the EU.

(4) Require that national fiscal-structural plans include an assessment of the national investment gap to achieve climate, environment and social goals, and make sure that debt and deficit reduction does not jeopardise their realization.

And of course (5) Make sure the rules don’t prioritise growth at the expense of climate and environment.

CR prekvapuje

Embodied carbon: Addressing now the hidden carbon cost of our buildings – EURACTIV.com
https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/opinion/embodied-carbon-addressing-now-the-hidden-carbon-cost-of-our-buildings/

Germany has recently tied whole life carbon limit values to receiving public subsidies for new buildings, while Spain, Ireland, and Czechia are developing the data infrastructure necessary for benchmarking and informing future building regulation.

But it’s at the EU level that serious action must be taken to save the Paris climate goals using the policy tools we already have.

Farmers on frontline as Dutch divided by war on nitrogen pollution
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/25/farmers-on-frontline-as-dutch-divided-by-war-on-nitrogen-pollution

Nitrogen compound emissions are a big matter in this small, packed country, becoming the dominant political issue over the course of a four-year crisis. Among other impacts, the crisis has hampered crucial housebuilding, because builders need nitrogen permits from a limited supply to cover construction emissions. The crisis has polarised social opinion, spurring the rise of a new rural populist movement and mobilising environmentalists who are desperately concerned about the state of wild habitats.

Novej rozhovor Davida Wallace-Wellse s Gretou Thunberg

It seems like the world is getting more and more grim every day. The concentration of CO₂ is now higher in the atmosphere and causing more and more extreme weather.
But there are also positive things that have changed. We have more people now who are mobilized and who are in the climate movement, in the fight for the climate and social justice.
So I guess that’s a good thing. But we have to be able to zoom out and see that we are still moving in the wrong direction. The things that people said back then that they were going to do, they still haven’t done, which proves, or which shows us, that it was just empty promises and really not taking it seriously, unfortunately.

...

Global temperature is still increasing. Governments and corporations are still financing and investing in fossil fuels. We are still expanding fossil fuel infrastructure all over the world. We are still expanding on Indigenous land, violating basic human rights.

Four or five years ago, you were really emphasizing that we need to listen to the scientists. Is that still sufficient?

No, of course not. In the beginning — well, “in the beginning” — people have been campaigning about this for decades. But when I began, I said we need to listen to the scientists because people were still treating the climate crisis as something debatable. And now — at least in the discourse — we’ve kind of settled that. It is a crisis. Even scientists and even heads of state are saying that this is an emergency.

Even C.E.O.s.

Yeah, exactly. They’re saying it. And they’re saying that they’re listening to the science. But they’re obviously not. So where do we go from there? We also have to listen to the people who are actually living in the climate crisis, living on the front lines. That’s something that’s become more and more relevant for me.

Opinion | Greta Thunberg: ‘The World Is Getting More Grim by the Day’ - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/opinion/greta-thunberg-climate-change.html

A statement by Prof. Dr. Niko Paech on the Last Generation. Please spread this wide and wide!

"Climate change is the greatest threat human civilization has ever faced." Unfortunately, we are experiencing that the German government -- notably contrary to its own declarations and corresponding resolutions -- is not fulfilling its responsibility in this regard. Even the Federal Constitutional Court recently established that. And currently, the most important environmental association, the BUND, is filing a lawsuit against the federal government because it violates current climate protection laws. Various social movements have become active to tackle the life-threatening abuse. Anyway, protest forms an integral part of the spectrum of democratic and rule of law opinion. But in this case, a moment of special proportion is added: Never has humanity been in greater danger. Based on this, the actions of the "uprising of the last generation" are quite mild, even compared to the riots of earlier demonstrations around the late 60s or within the framework of the anti-AKW movement in the 70s and 80s.

The uprising of the last generation does not dare to impose radical or new goals to a majority of the population or the federal government, but invokes a social consensus regarding overdue climate protection measures. This will not only reveal a deficit in enforcement, but protects the rule of law. Because a rule of law, on its basis and by its rules decisions -- in this case, of vital importance! -- be caught, which subsequently have no significance because their implementation is delayed or suspended by the relevant authorities, robs them of their own legitimacy. In the long term, trust in the rule of law and parliamentary democracy will thus be destroyed. So: this is about more than climate protection, namely, it is also about the integrity of the political system. "

Teacher Dr. Niko Paech.

Taky rok 2019, 4 scenare pro geopolitiku dekarbonizujiciho sveta

This opinion article offers insights into the geopolitics of the ongoing global energy transition. In doing so, it draws heavily on a workshop in Berlin in late 2018, and a subsequent paper in the journal Nature. Four scenarios are presented. First, the “Big Green Deal” offers a positive story of the future, under the assumption that there will be a multilateral approach to tackling climate change. Second, “Dirty Nationalism” explores the fallout of nations choosing to turn inward and pursue a short-term, protectionist, and self-interested agenda. Third, “Technology Breakthrough” illustrates how a technological leap forward could lead to a great power rivalry and distinct regional energy blocs. Finally, “Muddling On” investigates the outcome of an energy transition that reflect business as usual. By comparing and contrasting the different scenarios, the article highlights the potential winners and losers of the different scenarios, and the geopolitical consequences. It also sketches the implications for policy, theory, and scenario thinking more broadly.

https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.625