Novy data k AMOC collapse, vcetne pre-printu. Z cyklu #doomed

"We conclude that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation cannot be considered a low-probability event anymore." - Prof. Sybren Drijfhout et al.

x.com
https://x.com/ThierryAaron/status/1849842823954346187?t=XNLPa8bTOQZtPjDlQiJ3Sg&s=19

A cerstvy summary z guardianu

‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation | Oceans | The Guardian
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation

Nové hlášení od WWF - "Living Planet Report 2024"

Over the past 50 years (1970–2020), the average size of monitored wildlife populations has shrunk by 73%,
as measured by the Living Planet Index (LPI). This is based on almost 35,000 population trends and 5,495
species of amphibians, birds, fish, mammals and reptiles. Freshwater populations have suffered the heaviest
declines, falling by 85%, followed by terrestrial (69%) and marine populations (56%).

In the natural world, a number of tipping points are highly likely if current trends are left to continue, with
potentially catastrophic consequences. These include global tipping points that pose grave threats to
humanity and most species, and would damage Earth’s life-support systems and destabilize societies
everywhere.

Food production is one of the main
drivers of nature’s decline: it uses 40% of all habitable land, is
the leading cause of habitat loss, accounts for 70% of water
use and is responsible for over a quarter of greenhouse gas
emissions. The hidden costs of ill health and environmental
degradation in the current food system amount to US$10–15
trillion annually, representing 12% of global GDP in 2020

Globally, over half of GDP (55%) – or an estimated US$58
trillion – is moderately or highly dependent on nature and
its services. Yet our current economic system values nature
at close to zero, driving unsustainable natural resource
exploitation, environmental degradation and climate change.

Hlášení: https://wwflpr.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/2024-living-planet-report-a-system-in-peril.pdf
Exekutivní shrnutí: https://wwflpr.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/2024-lpr-executive-summary.pdf

Včera vyšel Ocean State Report 8 od Copernicusu

Copernicus Ocean State Report 8 Release | CMEMS
https://marine.copernicus.eu/news/copernicus-ocean-state-report-8-release
Summary PDF: https://marine.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/2024-09/CopernicusMarine_OSR8_Summary.pdf

DZODZO: tam je to taky zajímavý, období sucha bylo vždycky, ale poslední dvě zimy resp. jejich léta se nepředvedlo nijak moc ani období dešťů.

Tady je to krásně vidět na číslech:
Namibia Weather, Windhoek - Windhoek Yearly Rainfall Summary Reports
https://weather.namsearch.com/wdhrainsummary.php

ERGOSUM: sou i lepsi zdroje, ale jako summary co se stalo s lodni dopravou dobry

Study: Shipping’s Sulfur Cut Caused Worldwide Heat Wave
https://www.starconcord.com.sg/study-shippings-sulfur-cut-caused-worldwide-heat-wave/

TUHO: Tady kdyztak summary 30 let prace Rahmstorfa na tema. Relativne kratkej clanek, hodne dat, obrazku, srozumitelny pro vetsinu lidi

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has a major impact on climate, not just in the northern Atlantic but globally. Paleoclimatic data show it has been unstable in the past, leading to some of the most dramatic and abrupt climate shifts known. These instabilities are due to two different types of tipping points, one linked to amplifying feedbacks in the large-scale salt transport and the other in the convective mixing that drives the flow. These tipping points present a major risk of abrupt ocean circulation and climate shifts as we push our planet further out of the stable Holocene climate into uncharted waters.

Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point? | Oceanography
https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point

Executive summary – COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge – Analysis - IEA
https://www.iea.org/reports/cop28-tripling-renewable-capacity-pledge/executive-summary

Even if all countries were to fully implement their current ambitions, the world would fall 30% short of tripling global renewable capacity to over 11 000 GW by 2030. The current ambitions of advanced economies and of emerging and developing economies are not aligned with the COP28 pledge to triple global renewable power capacity by 2030, which is one of the key elements needed to get on track for the IEA’s pathway to achieving net zero emissions by mid-century and limiting warming to 1.5 °C. For advanced economies, the level of ambition needs to increase from a growth factor of 1.9 to 2.5. For emerging and developing economies, the growth factor should rise from 2.4 to 3.4.

The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history
Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history.

The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history | Communications Earth & Environment
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01371-1

Russia in the Arctic—A Critical Examination
EUGENE RUMER, RICHARD SOKOLSKY, PAUL STRONSKI
Summary: Russia has big Arctic plans, but how they will be realized is uncertain. For the United States this will likely mean the return to a Cold War–like environment rather than a new chapter in great-power competition in the Arctic.

Russia in the Arctic—A Critical Examination - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/03/29/russia-in-arctic-critical-examination-pub-84181

summary zaveru copu - silnej push od usa, eu a dalsich statu na fossil fuel phase put. staty opec a rusko do toho brutal hazi vidle a snazi se vykoupit moznosti cca

Reducing emissions theoretically provides for several pathways, of which phase out of fossil fuels is just one. And in this case, “emissions” and “unabated” targets are essentially two forms of a “get out of jail card” to keep their fossil fuel production and use going.
The difference between an “emissions reduction” pathway and a “fossil fuel phase out” pathway is that major fossil fuel producers believe they can keep pumping oil and gas and digging coal while working on emissions reduction technologies like carbon capture, direct air capture and investing in offsets.
As we know, despite the time the technology has existed, carbon capture is still not deployable at even a fraction of what would be required. Saudi Arabia, for example, has just one functioning plant.
It’s catastrophically expensive, potentially costing $1 trillion a year according to researchers at the Oxford Smith School and doesn’t work very well, according to Climate Analytics. And CCS doesn’t even apply to oil use at all and it only has potential application to gas and coal in quite specific circumstances.

The key COP28 battle: emissions v fossil fuel phase out
https://unclimatesummit.org/the-key-cop28-battle-emissions-v-fossil-fuel-phase-out/

J Pecho
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10220618107397482&id=1678732617


Dosiahli sme planetárne "Points of No Return"?

Pred niekoľkými dňami vyšla veľmi zásadná správa - Globálne body zvratu (Global Tipping Points ---> Points of No Return; Global Systems Institute - GSI, University of Exeter). Podľa správy je 5 planetárnych systémov na pokraji veľmi rýchlych zmien, ktoré by sa dali nazvať tiež termínom "kolaps" (pre našu spoločnosť rozhodne nič pozitívne). Správa hodnotí celkovo 25 planetárnych systémov, ktoré môžu niekedy v budúcnosti dosiahnuť body zvratu.

Planetárne systémy blízko bodu zvratu:
👉kontinentálny ľadovec v Grónsku
👉kontinentálny ľadovec v západnej Antarktíde
👉hynutie tropických koralov (koralových útesov)
👉stabilita morskej cirkulácie v sev. Atlantiku (SGC)
👉topenie a rozpad permafrostu
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Čo je bod zvratu? Ide o zmenu, po ktorej sa celý systém dostane do nového stabilného stavu. Príklad ---> ak sa budete húpať na stoličke, dlho zostane celý systém stabilný a vždy sa vráti do základnej stabilnej, počiatočnej pozície. Ak však húpanie „preženiete“, celý systém sa vychýli z rovnováhy a nový stabilný stav sa doslova "presunie" na podlahu ---> čo samozrejme pocítite ako dosť bolestivý pád.
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⚠️10 najdôležitejších záverov správy:
1️⃣zmena klímy rýchlo posúva prírodné systémy k bodom zvratu - 5 planetárnych systémov je blízko tohto stavu
2️⃣ľudstvo stojí pre bodmi zvratu, s ktorými sa nikdy nestretlo
3️⃣dopady bodov zvratu budú mať pre súčasnú globalizovanú spoločnosť krajne negatívne účinky = nestabilita, vojnové konflikty, atď.
4️⃣zastaviť a zvrátiť zmeny, resp. minimalizovať pravdepodobnosť bodov zvratu, je možné, no vyžaduje by si to rýchle a globálne koordinované úsilie
5️⃣aj napriek globálnemu koordinovanému úsiliu sú niektoré body zvratu už nezvratné (a ich spustenie je len otázkou času)
6️⃣existujú aj tzv. pozitívne body zvratu, ktoré nám môžu pomôcť na ceste k udržateľnosti a stabilizácii globálneho klimatického systému
7️⃣jeden pozitívny bod zvratu môže pritom aktivizovať ďalší, čo môže urýchliť cestu a návrat k stabilite
8️⃣aby sme dosiahli pozitívne body zvratu, potrebujeme globálne koordinované úsilie, ktoré však bude rešpektovať globálnu rovnosť a spravodlivosť („equity & justice“)
9️⃣je treba však súčasne vyvinúť intenzívnejšie úsilie na to, aby sme globálnym bodom zvratu lepšie porozumeli, súčasne však už vieme dosť na to, aby sme dokázali adekvátne reagovať a začali pracovať na zmene
🔟dosiahnutie pozitívnych bodov zvratu bude predstavovať zmysluplnú a systémovú reakciu (a riešenie) na negatívne dopady kriticky nepriaznivých bodov zvratu
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✅️6 základných odporúčaní, ktoré správa uvádza:
1️⃣okamžité ukončenie spaľovania (využívania) fosílnych palív ako hlavnej príčiny akcelerujúcej zmeny klímy
2️⃣posilniť možnosti adaptácie a intenzívne podporovať fond Loss & damage (práve o ňom sa jedná na #COP28)
3️⃣doplniť planetárne body zvratov do plánov NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution = národné plány ako znižovať emisie skleníkových plynov a adaptovať sa na negatívne dopady zmena klímy)
4️⃣globálne koordinovať konkrétne aktivity, ktoré povedú k dosiahnutiu pozitívnych bodov zvratu (napr. rýchle ukončenie využívania fosílnych zdrojov)
5️⃣usporiadať globálnu konferenciu o planetárnych bodoch zvratu
6️⃣prehĺbiť naše znalosti o planetárnych bodoch zvratu (a ich potenciálnych dopadoch a ľudskú spoločnosť)
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⚠️Najdôležitejšie posolstvo správy ---> Ničnerobenie nás bude stáť veľmi veľa. Dilema, pred ktorou stojíme nie je o tom, či byť aktívni alebo pokračovať ako sme zvyknutí. Stojíme skôr pred voľbou, či urobiť maximum pre odvrátenie "kolapsu", alebo žiť v oveľa horšom a nebezpečnejšom svete, než poznáme dnes.
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Zdroj: https://global-tipping-points.org/summary-report/narrative-summary/ [Spracované: Fakty o zmene klímy, CZ]

Pekne vysvetlené ---> https://grist.org/climate-tipping-points-amazon-greenland-boreal-forest/

Zaujímavá diskusia k tejto téme ---> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFYE4CfeIj0&ab_channel=NewYorkTimesEvents

Hele a tady bozi summary na historie klimatologie od americkeho historika a fyzika Spencer Wearta. Jak jsme prisli na to, ze se ohriva - a jak jsme si zavreli cestu, k tomu abysme se vyhnuli nebezpecny klimaticky zmene. Tyve dneska to na me nejak dopada... Cistu si tu historii takhle v kontextu, je tak strasne depresivni.

By the late 1970s global temperatures had begun to rise again. Since the late 1950s some climate scientists had been predicting that an unprecedented global warming would become apparent around the year 2000. Their worries finally caught wide public attention in the summer of 1988, the hottest on record till then. Computer modeler James Hansen made headlines when he told a Congressional hearing and journalists that greenhouse warming was almost certainly underway. And a major international meeting of scientists in Toronto called on governments to undertake active steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The response was vehement. Corporations and individuals who opposed all government regulation began to spend millions of dollars on lobbying, advertising, and "reports" that mimicked scientific publications, striving to convince the public that there was no problem at all. Environmental groups, less wealthy but more enthusiastic, helped politicize the issue with urgent cries of alarm. The many scientific uncertainties, and the sheer complexity of climate, made room for limitless debate over what actions, if any, governments should take.
...

If every nation met its target, what would they achieve? The science remained stubbornly imprecise, for the global climate system is a tangle of many interacting influences. Scientists did know that without stronger and prolonged efforts we were likely to get a rise to 2.5°C or more. That would be a desperately wounded world, where it would be difficult to sustain a civilization that was anywhere prosperous and peaceful. And we would face a small but real risk of triggering unstoppable heating, to a point where it would be difficult to sustain any civilization at all.

Future diplomacy would have to press urgently for stronger pledges and see that they were fulfilled. The world’s climate experts explained that we had delayed action for so long that we could now avoid grave harm only if global emissions did not just level off, but began to plunge by the year 2030. The policies set during the decade of the 2020s would determine the state of the planet’s climate for thousands of years to come. Fortunately, the expense of making the necessary changes in our economic and social systems would be far less than the cost of allowing climate change to continue, and would bring numerous other benefits. Ever more people and organizations saw that the work was in their own interest and began to undertake it.

Introduction - Summary
https://history.aip.org/climate/summary.htm