THERIDANE:
http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/log2015.html
nejvyssi pravdepodobnost uspesneho startu maji Delta 2 a Sojuz-FG (ale nevim, jestli to jsou vhodne nosice)
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SPACE LAUNCH REPORT
ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS
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by Ed Kyle as of December 29, 2015
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Top active space launch vehicles ranked by their predicted
orbital success rate*. Failures include incorrect orbits.
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Vehicle Successes/Tries Realzd Pred Consc. Last Dates
Rate Rate* Succes Fail
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Delta 2 151 153 .99 .98 98 1/17/97 1989-
Soyuz-FG 44 44 1.00 .98 44 None 2001-
Soyuz-U 753 773x .97 .97 16 8/24/11 1973-
Atlas 5 59 60 .98 .97 50 6/15/07 2002-
CZ-2D 26 26 1.00 .96 26 None 1992-
Ariane 5-ECA 52 53 .98 .96 52 12/11/02 2002-
Delta 4M(+) 22 22 1.00 .96 22 None 2002-
CZ-4(A/B/C) 45 46 .98 .96 11 12/9/13 1988-
CZ-3B/3C 44 46 .97 .94 32 8/31/09 1996-
CZ-2(C)(/SD/SM) 43 45 .96 .94 9 08/18/11 1974-
H-2A 28 29 .97 .94 23 11/29/03 2001-
CZ-2F(T1) 11 11 1.00 .92 11 None 1999-
Minotaur 1 11 11 1.00 .92 11 None 2000-
Soyuz FG/Fregat 10 10 1.00 .92 10 None 2003-
Dnepr 21 22 .95 .92 15 7/26/06 1999-
PSLV 30 32 .94 .91 28 9/29/97 1993-
CZ-3/3A 34 37 .92 .90 24 8/18/96 1984-
Rokot/Briz/K(M) 23 25 .92 .89 9 02/01/11 1994-
Proton-M/Briz-M 77 86 .90 .89 4 10/21/14 2001-
Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat 14 15# .93 .88 12 5/21/09 2006-
Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 20 22 .91 .88 6 08/22/14 2006-
Falcon 9 v1.1 13 14 .93 .88 0 06/28/15 2013-
Soyuz 2-1b 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 2008-
Pegasus (H/XL) 37 42 .88 .86 28 11/4/96 1991-
Vega 5 5xx 1.00 .86 5 None 2012-
Ariane 5ES 5 5 1.00 .86 5 None 2008-
H-2B 5 5 1.00 .86 5 None 2009-
Soyuz-U/Fregat 4 4 1.00 .83 4 None 2000-
Minotaur 4/5 4 4++ 1.00 .83 4 None 2010-
Zenit 3F/FregatSB 3 3 1.00 .80 3 None 2011-
Strela 3 3 1.00 .80 3 None 2003-
Delta IV-H 7 8 .88 .80 7 12/21/04 2004-
Soyuz 2-1a 7 8# .88 .80 2 04/28/15 2004-
Zenit 2(M/SB) 30 38 .78 .77 7 9/9/98 1985-
Shtil' 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 1998-
Kuaizhou 2 2 1.00 .75 1 None 2013-
Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB 5 6 .83 .75 5(B) 4/28/08 2008-
Antares 4 5 .80 .71 0 10/28/14 2013-
Angara A5 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2014-
CZ-6 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2005-
Epsilon 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2013-
Falcon 9 FT 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2015-
CZ-11 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2015-
Shavit(-1,-2) 7 10 .70 .67 3 9/6/04 1988-
Taurus (XL) 6 9 .67 .64 0 3/4/11 1994-
Safir 5 8 .63 .60(C) 1 9/2/12 2008-
Soyuz 2-1v 1 2 .50 .50 0 12/05/15 2013-
GSLV 4 9 .44 .45 2 12/25/10 2001-
Proton-M/DM-03 1 3 .33 .40 1 7/2/13 2010-
Volna 0 1 .00 .33 0 6/21/05 2005-
Super Strypi 0 1 .00 .33 0 11/4/15 2015-
Unha (TD-2) 1 4% .25 .33 1 4/12/12 2006-
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* First level Bayesian estimate of mean predicted probability
of success for next launch attempt (k+1)/(n+2) where k is the
number of successful events and n is the number of trials.
# Does not include one successful suborbital Soyuz 2-1a test
flight performed in 2004.
++Does not include two successful suborbital Minotaur 4 Lite
flights in 2010-11.
x Does not include Soyuz-U/Soyuz T-10-1 pre-launch fire that
resulted in escape tower firing saving crew, but destroying
launch vehicle on 9-26-1983. Note that 10 additional
Soyuz-U launches with Ikar or Fregat upper stages (all
successful) are cataloged separately.
xx Does not include successful 2-11-15 suborbital flight with
IXV reentry demonstrator.
% Includes 2006 failure thought to be a two-stage suborbital
test launch attempt.
(A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of
damage suffered during launch phase.
(B) Amos-3 inserted in orbit with 1,500 km short perigee and
0.7 deg unplanned inclination. Amos 3 reportedly lost two
to three years of 18 year design life.
(C) Assumes that two unsuccessful, unreported Safir launch
attempts occurred during 2012.
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