Peak Oil/Coal and Uncertainty of Climate Change + Globalscenarios for climate change and peaking fossil reserves
Materiál ze semináře na Smith School of Business and Environment psaný z pozice řekněme mezí růstu a v jistých ohledech rozporující nereálnost predikcí IPCC, velmi relevantní, jehož obsah a sdělení nelze rozhodně šmahem odbýt.
Materiál v mnohém připomíná seminář, který proběhl loni na půdě Stockholm Resilience Centre (na téže půdě mimochodem vznikl rovněž článek Welcome to Anthropocene, o kterém nedávno psal Jan Hollan coby o žádoucím rámci pro komunikaci globálního klimatického chaosu), na němž vystoupili prof. Johana Rockströma, prof. Kjella Alekletta a Karl Hallding. Přesněji připomíná příspěvek Kjella Alekletta z Global Energy Systems Group, Uppsala University. Přednáška Peak Oil/Coal and Uncertainty of Climate Change Jima Murraye je ovšem zpracována výrazně podrobněji.
Odkaz na stockholmský seminář:
http://www.stockholmresilience.org/seminarandevents/stockholmseminars/previousseminars/2010/ss2010/scenariosoffundamentalglobalchallenges.5.3eea013f128a65019c280004553.html
Odkaz na přednášku James W. Murray ze School of Oceanography, University of Washington:
http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Jim-Murray-Presentation-Slides.pdf
- Oil and Coal Reserves are much less than assumed by the IPCC.
- Increased supply from other sources is neither scalable or timely.
- We know enough to see that Resource Limitation needs to at least be an IPCC Scenario - uncertainty about climate change must include uncertainty about the source of CO2.
- Conclusions: A slow-motion train wreck
1) Supply Limitation will be serious and soon!
Existing scenarios and energy policies are based on emissions - not supply
Production rate matters not size of reserves
2) Coal is thought of as a solution to energy needs –
This will be a disaster for climate change without CO2 sequestration.
Is CO2 sequestration realistic?
3) Energy will pass climate change as the hot button issue
We have to get our energy plan in order before we can move forward on climate change
4) Energy Supply Limitation will Buffer Economic Recovery.
Something like $300B/year taken out of the economy.
But for average household D = $169/month
5) Security Issue:
Seven nations control 75% of world’s oil exports. There will be shifts in global power and wealth
Once it is clear that oil production has peaked is there are reason to believe that exports will not be limited?