Back in the year 2000, the IEA divined that by 2010, liquid fuel production worldwide would reach 95.8 million barrels per day (mbpd). The actual 2010 number was 87.1 mbpd. The agency further forecast an average daily oil price of $28.25 per barrel (adjusted for inflation). The actual average daily price of oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 2010 was $79.61.
...
So, what made the IEA so sanguine about oil supply growth in the year 2000? It cited the revolution taking place in deepwater drilling technology which was expected to allow the extraction of oil supplies ample for the world's needs for decades to come. But, deepwater drilling has turned out to be more challenging than anticipated and has not produced the bounty the IEA imagined it would. This is not to say that it hasn't been a critical adjunct to world oil supplies. It's just that deepwater oil production hasn't been able both to make up for declines in production elsewhere AND grow supplies beyond that--something that has resulted in a bumpy plateau for world oil production (crude plus lease condensate) starting in 2005.

How Reliable is the IEA’s Oil Market Forecast?
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Reliable-is-the-IEAs-Oil-Market-Forecast.html

Seemorerocks: Energy
http://robinwestenra.blogspot.be/2013/05/energy.html

CHEMIK: myslel jsem to přesně jak píšeš, zásoby se tím defacto obnovujou, ale na to sme se ptali vyučujícího (rndr. slobodník) jestli to probíhá je v rentabilních číslech, načež odpověděl že ne

BIDAK: Paleontolog jen zminil, ze ropa je v geologickych vrstvach hodne mobilni, a tedy napr. uz vycerpane lozisko se muze casem obnovit, protoze porad bude fungovat jako past na ropu. Proste tam pomalu pritece odjinud. S tim ze i jinde vznikla z mrtvolek. Odhaduju, ze to psal pro doplneni, objasneni, jak se tam ta ropa ocitne. Ale mozna ze mu vkladam do klavesnice vlastni myslenky...

BIDAK: já reaguju na myšlenku doplňování ropy v r.pastech, na marginální původ těžený ropy, ale nevím, na co reaguješ ty :)
mimoto je to složitejší, záleží na procesech fosilizace

PALEONTOLOG: No tak každej kdo byl někdy na zkamenělinách tak ví, že vevnitř některejch zkamenělejch živočichů se občas najde kapka ropy.

hlavně je potřeba znát mechanismus akumulace ropy, v tzv. ropných pastech, kde migrací ropy ve vodní emulzi se v příhodných podmínkách se rozdělí a v nějaký kopulovitý ropný pasti zůstane ta lehčí fáze.. samo nejlehčí fází je plyn, po něm nějaká ta kapalná organika a pak až voda.... a doplňování ropy v ropných pastech zčásti probíhá, stejně jako "ropná voda" stále migruje porézními sedimenty..
ale osobně na ten abiotickej původ ropy nevěřím,

SCHWEPZ: Platí neplatí. Zdá se, že spíš z dinosaurů. :o)

BIDAK: no a tak...zatím tedy platí, že ropa "vznikla z dinosaurů a přesliček" pod tlakem?

SCHWEPZ: Ale jo, mě už to jenom štve jak se to furt vrací.

MESK: BIDAK: díky za doplnění, nedal jsem to sem, jako zastánce této teorie, ale proto, že je to k tématu ,)

:: OSEL.CZ :: - Tichý pohřeb pohádky o ropném zlomu
http://www.osel.cz/index.php?clanek=6903

V Mexickom zálive postaví Shell najhlbší ropný vrt na svete | Firmy | ekonomika.sme.sk
http://ekonomika.sme.sk/c/6794308/v-mexickom-zalive-postavi-shell-najhlbsi-ropny-vrt-na-svete.html#ixzz2SsKJZe6W

E2E4: "It's absolutely true that we will never "run out" of oil--there will always be oil resources that are too expensive to produce that will stay in the ground--but since 2004 we have seen the undisputable evidence that affordable oil is slipping away from us, and that the rising price of oil has contributed to the stalling of the global economy. If the world could tolerate $300 a barrel, there might be no reason for concern about future oil supply. But it cannot. As the IEA's executive director recently noted, U.S. oil and gas prices need to go higher (through exports) to "avoid [the] shale boom turning to bust." But prices for refined products like gasoline and diesel are already near the upper limit for American consumers."

Mann also offers no data on tight oil production and price, but here are the key facts. In 2012, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. consumed about 18.5 million barrels a day (mb/d) of liquid fuels and produced about 11 mb/d. Only about 7 mb/d of that 11 was actual crude oil, and about 1 mb/d of that was from tight oil. The non-crude liquids the US produced have less energy content than crude, and some of it cannot be made into vehicular fuel.

One cannot easily make a case for incipient U.S. "energy independence" on the basis of 1 mb/d of new tight oil production. A host of dubious assumptions and data distortions underlie the recent energy independence forecasts which I will not delve into here, but I have examined and debunked most of the reports that Mann cites, including those from the IEA (here and here), Ed Morse at Citigroup (here and here), and Leonardo Maugeri.

Are Methane Hydrates Really Going to Change Geopolitics? - Technology - The Atlantic
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/print/2013/05/are-methane-hydrates-really-going-to-change-geopolitics/275275/