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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    GOJATLA: Dawkins rika ze ai nas nezachrání? tento bod mi není jasný

    co se týče otroceni pro AI. může to být tak velký průlom jako když se z jednobuněčného života stal mnohobuněčný. jako buňka v organismu si dost možná taky pripadas jako otrok q raději by sis někde sám plaval nezavisle v oceánu

    všechno to záleží jakou bude mít reward funkci a ano, to nemůžeme vědět, takže určitě je to děsivý
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    GOJATLA: myslím, že to je hledají smyslu a vyššího principu, který jen má zakrýt, že svět je vlastně soubor náhodných dějů které jsou tak dlouho proti sobě až se vytvoří jakási rovnováha
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    YMLADRIS: Chápu to tak, že prostředí a život se vzájemně ovlivňovali tak, aby mohlo dojít ke vzniku inteligentního života. Jinak bychom tu nebyli (antropický princip, ne antropocentrický, sorry). Nic to neříká o tom, jaké podmínky si tu zařídíme do budoucna, takže bych řekl, že pravdu má Dawkins a AI nás nezachrání :-(
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    GOJATLA: ja bych nerek, ze si cilene zivot udrzuje optimalni podminky, ale spis, ze to jinak byt nemuze. pokud by se tak nestalo, tak dojde k vymirani a cely proces zacina na novo... (podobne jako slaby antropicky princip)

    evoluce neni nic cileneho, a presto jeji mechanismy vedou k uzasne optimalizaci vsech zivych procesu, protoze pokud neni neco optimalni, ma to nizsi sanci prezit, a pokud neprezije, nemuze dal dochazet k evoluci :)

    ...a zeme sice neni organismus, ale je soucasti ekosystemu techto organismu

    to, ze se zeme "samoreguluje" bych spis vysvetlil skrze Sobecky gen - je tu vic resources, (a podobne jako u firem), pride ziva bunka, ktera ty resources umi vyuzit a vynutit si rozmnozenim docasnou prevahu nad ostatnimi organismy (na konkretnim prikladu - rostliny a stromy zacnou co2 vice vyuzivat, pokud jim v tom neco jineho, jako prilisne teplo nezabrani). z pohledu zeme to pak vypada, ze se zeme "sama" udrzuje.

    a vpodstate to tak je, i neni :)

    ...a dodam, ze tyhle procesy maji samozrejme ruznou casovou linii a setrvacnost...
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    GOJATLA: optimální podmínky pro co přesně? o zánik života se imo ted nehraje. jak se obecně v tom definuje, co je optimální pro život? je operování homo sapiens optimální pro život?
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    SHEFIK: Zajímavé, hledal jsem, jak to vlastně s tou Gaiou je. Teorie, že Země je jeden velký superorganismus a že živé organismy mění své prostředí, je všeobecně přijatá, ale neříká se jí Gaia, ale Earth system science.

    Na původní teorii vědcům vadí, že se jí nadšeně chopilo hnutí New Age a dál tvrzení, že život si cíleně udržuje optimální podmínky. Výkon Slunce pomalu roste, ale životu se podařilo udržet stálou teplotu snižováním obsahu CO2. Podle Lovelocka to není náhoda, ale vlastnost Gaii, která se udržuje v homeostáze. To se nelíbí neodarwinistům, třeba Dawkinsovi, podle nich organismy takovou schopnost mít nemůžou.
    Řekl bych, že to je další ukázka antropocentrického principu a nevím, co je na tom tak sporného.

    No nejlepší na tom je, že Lovelock se své teorie drží a domnívá se, že život má skutečně zájem na tom se udržet a globální oteplování zastaví. Naději vkládá do AI. To se podle mě nestihne a navíc by pak zřejmě lidstvo skončilo v roli otroků. Nevím, proč nefandí radši XR. Ale máme šanci se brzy dozvědět, jak to vlasntě je.



    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: nez bych to precet, tak roztajou ledovce :( takze diky za ty vytahy...

    TADEAS: "Traditional neoDarwinists hold this to be impossible in theory."

    tohle mi nejde pres srdce, proc by to neodarwinismus popiral? pokud nejaky organismus nici zivotni podminky sveho okoli, tak sam zemre - evolucne slepa ulicka. pokud nici okoli ostatnich organismu, take driv nebo pozdeji zemre, protoze nemuze benefitovat z jejich lifecyclu a driv nebo pozdeji vycerpa sve vlastni jednostranne resources. obecne, kdyby to neodarwinismus popiral, tak nevznikne nic jineho nez prvok, protoze zivocichove jsou symbiozou bunek - tedy podporujici se navzajem v preziti. muzeme tomu rikat agregovane symbioza, v detailu spolceni sobeckych genu, ale je to porad jedno a to same a nic z toho neodarwinismus, pokud vim nepopira ani na biologicky, ani na kulturni urovni

    TADEAS: ono to tam speje, jenze na vyvoj k internetu jsme meli desitky tisic neohranicenych let. na planetary scale sebeorganizaci jsme dostali deadline .)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Is the way cattle are grazed the key to saving America's threatened prairies? | Environment | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/.../could-grazing-be-the-key-to-saving-the-uss-endangered-grasslands-aoe
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    jsem nevedel, ze s ohnem bojujou vezni... ktery maj ted covid lockdow


    USA 2020: As California enters another dangerous fire season, the COVID-19 pandemic has depleted the ranks of prison inmate fire crews that are a key component of the state’s efforts to battle out-of-control wildfires. @70sBachchan
    https://t.co/IBuHSlEAWB https://t.co/jzcVM2Bx7m


    COVID-19 depleting ranks of California inmate fire camps | The Sacramento Bee
    https://amp.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article243977827.html

    California’s incarcerated firefighters have for decades been the state’s primary firefighting “hand crews,” and the shortage has officials scrambling to come up with replacement firefighters in a dry season that is shaping up to be among the most extreme in years. The state is hunting for bulldozer crews and enlisting teams that normally clear brush as replacements.

    Inmate crews are among the first on the scene at fires large and small across the state. Name a major wildfire in recent years — from the devastating wine country and Thomas fires in 2017 to the massive Carr and Camp fires the following year — and inmates were there, on the ground cutting fire breaks around evacuated homes.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    This seminal work achieves the fusion of materialistic, bottom-up, reductionist science, with top-down holistic synthesis. It is the one valid scientific approach that can provide the basis for resolving questions of correct distributions of resources to achieve biospheric homeostasis.

    It 'defeats' the scientific claims of both neodarwinism and atheism (e.g. as represented by Richard Dawkins), and in so doing, opens the way for the harmonisation of social and political organisation with the biosphere. It furthermore functions as the cornerstone of the foundation for integrating the balkanised and corporatised academy (all STEM-HUM domains). (The rest of the foundation for this integration is also complete, and will be disclosed in forthcoming literature and knowledge-integration tooling.)

    Constitutions will now be redrawn, so that the state, at all levels, is regenerated as the administration of land, water, energy, and other resources, as Commons, functioning as layers in a local-global open network that self-organises towards global biospheric homeostasis.

    The Gaian Platform
    https://neuroplastic.github.io/Gaian_Platform.html
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    2019 Making Evolutionary Sense of Gaia
    Making Evolutionary Sense of Gaia - PubMed
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31155421/

    The Gaia hypothesis in a strong and frequently criticized form assumes that global homeostatic mechanisms have evolved by natural selection favoring the maintenance of conditions suitable for life. Traditional neoDarwinists hold this to be impossible in theory. But the hypothesis does make sense if one treats the clade that comprises the biological component of Gaia as an individual and allows differential persistence - as well as differential reproduction - to be an outcome of evolution by natural selection. Recent developments in theoretical and experimental evolutionary biology may justify both maneuvers.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    klima, kryptokonstituce

    The open web in the implementation of real adaptation to climate change - Myles Byrne
    https://neuroplastic.github.io/climate_social_contract_2020.html

    To ethically respond to the climate crisis at all, the GenX, Millenial, & GenZ generations have to act as one, and route around nation-states and the institutional framework built around them.

    The basics of this collective action have been described as ‘WWII with everyone on the same side’. The basics of what this entails are obvious, and will not be surprising to anyone who has been paying adequate attention to our collective situation:

    universal conscription into global service
    rapid universal cessation of further carbon extraction
    rapid universal sequestration of carbon
    universal redistribution of resources on a global scale to effect 1–3

    How these basics are to be implemented is non-obvious, and is the focus of this document.

    It is natural to assume that some form of global political institution has to be planned, organised, and ratified through a legal process, in order to implement these steps. However, the combinatorial explosion of the negative synergies we face, and the logistics and mobilisation required in steps 1–4, have already defeated conventional institutions.

    A defensible path to implementation would require a system enabling continual, integrated, iterative adaptations across local-global scales. Such a system already exists, in full technical implementation, in the form of the global internet and open web.

    The first step on the path to implementation of real adaptation to climate change is to transfer the legal status of humans, from that of being the subjects of nation-states, to being autonomous agents in a formally open web.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The biological basis for world government in the context of climate change
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1214863776354308096.html


    Nation-states have been captured by interests interpreting the global situation as one of zero-sum survival, following the same lines of instinctual reaction which precipitated WWII.

    The scope of these reactive interests is to survive what they perceive as the collapse of human civilisation, and the subsequent global holocaust, bottleneck, or Jackpot, in which several billion humans lose all human rights and are de facto 'deniably' murdered.

    Apart from its abject moral and ethical failure, this interpretation of the situation is counterfactual. The bottleneck we face is one of planetary homeostasis and habitability:

    "In the Gaian bottleneck model, the maintenance of planetary habitability is associated with an unusually rapid evolution of biological regulation of surface volatiles ..."

    "If life emerges on a planet, it only rarely evolves quickly enough to regulate greenhouse gases and albedo, thereby maintaining surface temperatures compatible with liquid water and habitability."

    If we fail to meet this challenge, which is the goal of the methods described herein, the Earth most likely fails as a life-bearing planet, full stop.

    The alternative is to interpret the biological function of humanity not in the terms of selfish genes, but as an evolutionary mechanism designed to both trigger and manage the transition of the planetary biome to self-managing homeostasis.

    Human capacity to adapt to climate change now requires the translation of the adaptational mechanisms of evolutionary biology to planetary scale.
    Humanity's rapid proliferation, extraction of carbon into the atmosphere, development of a single integrated global network, and use of this network to recapture carbon, may be the very mechanism by which this translation occurs.

    Suspiciously just in time, the major work of translating evolutionary biology to planetary scale has been recently completed. The essential forms and functions of a sustainable human civilisation do not have to be built, but already exist as the open web.

    In that it recapitulates evolutionary biology as a medium that allows for continual integrated adaptations across local-global scales, the open web itself is the essential form and function of sustainable human civilisation.

    A corollary is that the apparent reversal of the net from an open system with utopian promise, into a dystopian one of mass surveillance, results from misinterpretating the web as subordinated to national sovereignty, when in fact it is organically super-ordinal to it.

    This is demonstrated in both the dissolution of the political classes in the informational flows of the net, and in the blocking of the open web by nations devolving to authoritarianism.

    In this context, the metaphor of the internet as a planetary neural net that has grown over older social systems, in the same way the neocortex grew over the brainstem, cerebellum, and limbic system, is now formally concrete.

    The neocortex and evolution of the nervous system enabled organisms to dematerialise physical conflicts into symbolic social behaviors.

    This enabled social-political systems to perform these functions at geographic scales, which in turn has enabled the open web to perform them now at the global scale.

    In the 21st century, then, humanity only makes evolutionary and ecological sense as a nascent, distributed global brain, serving the self-regulation of the biosphere as a whole.

    The open web must now be literally understood as a globally distributed social superorganism akin to physarum polycephalum, scaled up from the microbial to the global.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    2018 Selection for Gaia across Multiple Scales
    https://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/fulltext/S0169-5347(18)30118-6

    Recently postulated mechanisms and models can help explain the enduring ‘Gaia’ puzzle of environmental regulation mediated by life. Natural selection can produce nutrient recycling at local scales and regulation of heterogeneous environmental variables at ecosystem scales. However, global-scale environmental regulation involves a temporal and spatial decoupling of effects from actors that makes conventional evolutionary explanations problematic. Instead, global regulation can emerge by a process of ‘sequential selection’ in which systems that destabilize their environment are short-lived and result in extinctions and reorganizations until a stable attractor is found. Such persistence-enhancing properties can in turn increase the likelihood of acquiring further persistence-enhancing properties through ‘selection by survival alone’. Thus, Earth system feedbacks provide a filter for persistent combinations of macroevolutionary innovations.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    gaian bottleneck

    The Case for a Gaian Bottleneck: The Biology of Habitability - PubMed
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26789354/

    Here, we present an alternative Gaian bottleneck explanation: If life emerges on a planet, it only rarely evolves quickly enough to regulate greenhouse gases and albedo, thereby maintaining surface temperatures compatible with liquid water and habitability. Such a Gaian bottleneck suggests that (i) extinction is the cosmic default for most life that has ever emerged on the surfaces of wet rocky planets in the Universe and (ii) rocky planets need to be inhabited to remain habitable. In the Gaian bottleneck model, the maintenance of planetary habitability is a property more associated with an unusually rapid evolution of biological regulation of surface volatiles than with the luminosity and distance to the host star
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    In Melbourne in 2010 I asked Schellnhuber: “you said in Copenhagen last year that @+4C the world would have a carrying capacity of just one billion people, but that this was something you hadn’t told Angela Merkel - why not?” He replied “some truths are too hard to tell”. https://twitter.com/SafeClimate/status/1292540222580772865?s=19

    ...

    He says he was misquoted "What I said is, if global warming is not in any way mitigated, and we go into a six or eight degrees warmer world, then our planet will probably only be able to support a billion people." https://t.co/QNl3AjzLYs


    ...

    The misquote Schellnhuber is correcting is that he was *advocating* for a reduction in population to one billion. When he spoke at the Four Degrees Conf in Melbourne in 2010 a man with a noose threatened him based on this. I was there — HS stood by his one billion @+4C estimate. https://twitter.com/SafeClimate/status/1292536188104933376?s=19
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    Tadeáš už to sem dával, ale opakování neuškodí...

    Blue Ocean Event
    https://www.scientistswarning.org/wiki/blue-ocean-event/

    What is a Blue Ocean Event (BOE)?
    One of the big questions about global heating is when — or if — the Arctic will be ice-free each summer. Scientists, such as Paul Beckwith, have recently come to refer to this as a blue ocean event (video). As Arctic sea ice gets thinner and thinner, a blue ocean event looks more imminent every year.

    What is the Arctic Death Spiral?
    The “Arctic Death Spiral” refers to a scientific chart generated from satellite data in order to visually depict the disappearance of Arctic ice since 1979. According to Skeptical Science, the first Death Spiral graphic is visually striking and clearly shows the loss of sea ice in all seasons. The circle (spiral) graph is stunning. It even provides a tidy disappearing point for when months start hitting zero. However, we cannot let this happen.

    If we lose the Arctic, we will also lose the jet stream (video) as we know it, the troposphere will expand (video) causing droughts and fires on many continents, food production will be threatened, and we will be well on the way to a Hothouse Earth state in a 4-7°C [1] world of monster storms and mass extinctions. Eminent and world renowned researcher, James Lovelock, has been saying for over a decade that 6 billion people could perish by the end of the century.


    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    Climate Stabilization: Lessons from the Corona Crisis — PIK Research Portal
    https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/climate-stabilization-lessons-from-the-corona-crisis

    The researchers conclude by proposing an intergenerational Climate Corona Contract informed by reason and the principle of social justice. Former PIK director and co-author Hans Joachim Schellnhuber explains: “Younger generations would agree to protect the elderly from COVID-19 by adhering to social distancing measures, while the older generations would push for measures to keep global warming in line with the Paris Agreement.” Thus, the researchers’ outlook is cautiously optimistic: The outpouring of generosity and new forms of social interactions in the wake of the pandemic show great potentials for cooperation towards the much needed stabilization of the global climate.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Schellnhuber über Klima-Aktivisten: „Viele junge Menschen werden depressiv zurückbleiben“ - Politik - Tagesspiegel Mobil
    https://m.tagesspiegel.de/...sten-viele-junge-menschen-werden-depressiv-zurueckbleiben/25945936.html

    “The young climate activists, without being asked, take on the responsibility for the future of those who have established themselves in society and who shy away from this responsibility. It hurts me to say that, but in this struggle a lot of young people get frustrated, burned out and even left depressed. "

    ...

    The corona crisis is a test case for how seriously politicians take the even bigger climate crisis. “I would say that at least we have already won the battle for climate awareness, the decision-makers in Berlin and Brussels have not rolled backwards. We must now act decisively forward . "

    ...

    “Too many in this society, especially too many decision-makers in politics and business, practice a blatant denial of responsibility because they believe that there is no alternative to the self-chosen materialistic madness. The climate catastrophe is not only a consequence, but also a reflection of our way of life. "
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Klimawandel:  Klimaforscher Schellnhuber - "Das war meine Lebensleistung" - MOZ.de
    https://www.moz.de/amp/nachrichten/brandenburg/artikel-ansicht/dg/0/1/1806922/

    However, Schellnhuber has not yet achieved his goal of limiting global warming to a maximum of two degrees through a noticeable reduction in the burning of fossil fuels. "Politicians find it difficult to achieve long-term goals; they always look for short-term solutions," the scientist says. However, there is only a period of about ten years for suitable measures. "Technically, physically and even economically, we can still reach the limit," says Schellnhuber. "If we lose another decade, the train has probably left."

    This is similar to the current Corona crisis, he says. "If you had reacted a week earlier, tens of thousands of people would have been saved." And countries like the USA, Russia, Great Britain and Brazil are hit hardest. "Because they didn't take science seriously."

    "If nothing happens, global warming will be four to five degrees by the end of this century," warns the scientist. "From a geological point of view, that would be a journey back in time 30 million years ago, with devastating weather extremes and sea level rise." His son can still experience this, says Schellnhuber. "It is therefore our damned duty of our generation to stabilize the climate so that future generations can have a good life."
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Corona and the climate: a comparison of two emergencies
    https://www.cambridge.org/...parison-of-two-emergencies/AE382384C616E5707064066B5065DD4E/core-reader

    To summarize our four-step analysis, the COVID-19 outbreak helps us to formulate a contingency plan for the climate emergency that necessitates the following core elements: lower the probability of damage through mitigation; lower damages through adaptation; increase intervention time through science; and decrease reaction time via a social contract and improved governance of the global commons

    ...

    For both the corona crisis and climate change, despite uncertainties, science helps us to establish a diagnosis, prognosis and therapy. Yet it remains to be seen whether societies and governments around the world are willing to take up the challenge that climate change poses as vigorously as they are addressing coronavirus. In fact, it is a matter of intergenerational social justice. The Climate Corona Contract recognizes that, in the face of risks to which nobody is immune, a renewed commitment and related institutional mechanisms to safeguard the right to life are all the more essential. Experience is a hard teacher, but the lessons from the corona crisis should be taken forward to protect our planet and preserve it for future generations. The outbreak has brought to light the potential to transform some of the foundations of our society. This can serve systemic change, not just in the short term. In a time when ‘social distancing’ is the new norm, ‘new ways of coming together’ (Yong, 2020) are being ingenuously found. This renewed appreciation of our shared destiny may well help us to think in the long term about the very value of the only planet we have and our role therein
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    In response to the extensive area of open water in July (typically sea ice covered), sea surface temperatures are warmer than average across the entire #Arctic Circle...

    [Graphic and methods from @dmidk: https://t.co/s3iuSDTkjo] https://t.co/gOd6atH4F

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