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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
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    YMLADRIS: tak v dnesni situaci vse pozrala/pozere digitalizace, coz je ta vrstva umoznujici tu planetarni seberegulaci. v ni vznika novy model (modla:) planeta prichazi k sobe (planetarni vedomi)... inteligence ktere jsou nejak nativni tomu digitalnimu vypocetnimu pristoru v tom asi hrajou roli, ale porad jsou jen soucasti nejaky architektonickyho procesu tvorby ty planety ,) mozna .)

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    klima, kryptokonstituce

    The open web in the implementation of real adaptation to climate change - Myles Byrne
    https://neuroplastic.github.io/climate_social_contract_2020.html

    To ethically respond to the climate crisis at all, the GenX, Millenial, & GenZ generations have to act as one, and route around nation-states and the institutional framework built around them.

    The basics of this collective action have been described as ‘WWII with everyone on the same side’. The basics of what this entails are obvious, and will not be surprising to anyone who has been paying adequate attention to our collective situation:

    universal conscription into global service
    rapid universal cessation of further carbon extraction
    rapid universal sequestration of carbon
    universal redistribution of resources on a global scale to effect 1–3

    How these basics are to be implemented is non-obvious, and is the focus of this document.

    It is natural to assume that some form of global political institution has to be planned, organised, and ratified through a legal process, in order to implement these steps. However, the combinatorial explosion of the negative synergies we face, and the logistics and mobilisation required in steps 1–4, have already defeated conventional institutions.

    A defensible path to implementation would require a system enabling continual, integrated, iterative adaptations across local-global scales. Such a system already exists, in full technical implementation, in the form of the global internet and open web.

    The first step on the path to implementation of real adaptation to climate change is to transfer the legal status of humans, from that of being the subjects of nation-states, to being autonomous agents in a formally open web.
    TADEAS
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    The biological basis for world government in the context of climate change
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1214863776354308096.html


    Nation-states have been captured by interests interpreting the global situation as one of zero-sum survival, following the same lines of instinctual reaction which precipitated WWII.

    The scope of these reactive interests is to survive what they perceive as the collapse of human civilisation, and the subsequent global holocaust, bottleneck, or Jackpot, in which several billion humans lose all human rights and are de facto 'deniably' murdered.

    Apart from its abject moral and ethical failure, this interpretation of the situation is counterfactual. The bottleneck we face is one of planetary homeostasis and habitability:

    "In the Gaian bottleneck model, the maintenance of planetary habitability is associated with an unusually rapid evolution of biological regulation of surface volatiles ..."

    "If life emerges on a planet, it only rarely evolves quickly enough to regulate greenhouse gases and albedo, thereby maintaining surface temperatures compatible with liquid water and habitability."

    If we fail to meet this challenge, which is the goal of the methods described herein, the Earth most likely fails as a life-bearing planet, full stop.

    The alternative is to interpret the biological function of humanity not in the terms of selfish genes, but as an evolutionary mechanism designed to both trigger and manage the transition of the planetary biome to self-managing homeostasis.

    Human capacity to adapt to climate change now requires the translation of the adaptational mechanisms of evolutionary biology to planetary scale.
    Humanity's rapid proliferation, extraction of carbon into the atmosphere, development of a single integrated global network, and use of this network to recapture carbon, may be the very mechanism by which this translation occurs.

    Suspiciously just in time, the major work of translating evolutionary biology to planetary scale has been recently completed. The essential forms and functions of a sustainable human civilisation do not have to be built, but already exist as the open web.

    In that it recapitulates evolutionary biology as a medium that allows for continual integrated adaptations across local-global scales, the open web itself is the essential form and function of sustainable human civilisation.

    A corollary is that the apparent reversal of the net from an open system with utopian promise, into a dystopian one of mass surveillance, results from misinterpretating the web as subordinated to national sovereignty, when in fact it is organically super-ordinal to it.

    This is demonstrated in both the dissolution of the political classes in the informational flows of the net, and in the blocking of the open web by nations devolving to authoritarianism.

    In this context, the metaphor of the internet as a planetary neural net that has grown over older social systems, in the same way the neocortex grew over the brainstem, cerebellum, and limbic system, is now formally concrete.

    The neocortex and evolution of the nervous system enabled organisms to dematerialise physical conflicts into symbolic social behaviors.

    This enabled social-political systems to perform these functions at geographic scales, which in turn has enabled the open web to perform them now at the global scale.

    In the 21st century, then, humanity only makes evolutionary and ecological sense as a nascent, distributed global brain, serving the self-regulation of the biosphere as a whole.

    The open web must now be literally understood as a globally distributed social superorganism akin to physarum polycephalum, scaled up from the microbial to the global.
    TADEAS
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    2018 Selection for Gaia across Multiple Scales
    https://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/fulltext/S0169-5347(18)30118-6

    Recently postulated mechanisms and models can help explain the enduring ‘Gaia’ puzzle of environmental regulation mediated by life. Natural selection can produce nutrient recycling at local scales and regulation of heterogeneous environmental variables at ecosystem scales. However, global-scale environmental regulation involves a temporal and spatial decoupling of effects from actors that makes conventional evolutionary explanations problematic. Instead, global regulation can emerge by a process of ‘sequential selection’ in which systems that destabilize their environment are short-lived and result in extinctions and reorganizations until a stable attractor is found. Such persistence-enhancing properties can in turn increase the likelihood of acquiring further persistence-enhancing properties through ‘selection by survival alone’. Thus, Earth system feedbacks provide a filter for persistent combinations of macroevolutionary innovations.
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    gaian bottleneck

    The Case for a Gaian Bottleneck: The Biology of Habitability - PubMed
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26789354/

    Here, we present an alternative Gaian bottleneck explanation: If life emerges on a planet, it only rarely evolves quickly enough to regulate greenhouse gases and albedo, thereby maintaining surface temperatures compatible with liquid water and habitability. Such a Gaian bottleneck suggests that (i) extinction is the cosmic default for most life that has ever emerged on the surfaces of wet rocky planets in the Universe and (ii) rocky planets need to be inhabited to remain habitable. In the Gaian bottleneck model, the maintenance of planetary habitability is a property more associated with an unusually rapid evolution of biological regulation of surface volatiles than with the luminosity and distance to the host star
    TADEAS
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    In Melbourne in 2010 I asked Schellnhuber: “you said in Copenhagen last year that @+4C the world would have a carrying capacity of just one billion people, but that this was something you hadn’t told Angela Merkel - why not?” He replied “some truths are too hard to tell”. https://twitter.com/SafeClimate/status/1292540222580772865?s=19

    ...

    He says he was misquoted "What I said is, if global warming is not in any way mitigated, and we go into a six or eight degrees warmer world, then our planet will probably only be able to support a billion people." https://t.co/QNl3AjzLYs


    ...

    The misquote Schellnhuber is correcting is that he was *advocating* for a reduction in population to one billion. When he spoke at the Four Degrees Conf in Melbourne in 2010 a man with a noose threatened him based on this. I was there — HS stood by his one billion @+4C estimate. https://twitter.com/SafeClimate/status/1292536188104933376?s=19
    GOJATLA
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    Tadeáš už to sem dával, ale opakování neuškodí...

    Blue Ocean Event
    https://www.scientistswarning.org/wiki/blue-ocean-event/

    What is a Blue Ocean Event (BOE)?
    One of the big questions about global heating is when — or if — the Arctic will be ice-free each summer. Scientists, such as Paul Beckwith, have recently come to refer to this as a blue ocean event (video). As Arctic sea ice gets thinner and thinner, a blue ocean event looks more imminent every year.

    What is the Arctic Death Spiral?
    The “Arctic Death Spiral” refers to a scientific chart generated from satellite data in order to visually depict the disappearance of Arctic ice since 1979. According to Skeptical Science, the first Death Spiral graphic is visually striking and clearly shows the loss of sea ice in all seasons. The circle (spiral) graph is stunning. It even provides a tidy disappearing point for when months start hitting zero. However, we cannot let this happen.

    If we lose the Arctic, we will also lose the jet stream (video) as we know it, the troposphere will expand (video) causing droughts and fires on many continents, food production will be threatened, and we will be well on the way to a Hothouse Earth state in a 4-7°C [1] world of monster storms and mass extinctions. Eminent and world renowned researcher, James Lovelock, has been saying for over a decade that 6 billion people could perish by the end of the century.


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    TADEAS:

    Climate Stabilization: Lessons from the Corona Crisis — PIK Research Portal
    https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/climate-stabilization-lessons-from-the-corona-crisis

    The researchers conclude by proposing an intergenerational Climate Corona Contract informed by reason and the principle of social justice. Former PIK director and co-author Hans Joachim Schellnhuber explains: “Younger generations would agree to protect the elderly from COVID-19 by adhering to social distancing measures, while the older generations would push for measures to keep global warming in line with the Paris Agreement.” Thus, the researchers’ outlook is cautiously optimistic: The outpouring of generosity and new forms of social interactions in the wake of the pandemic show great potentials for cooperation towards the much needed stabilization of the global climate.
    TADEAS
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    Schellnhuber über Klima-Aktivisten: „Viele junge Menschen werden depressiv zurückbleiben“ - Politik - Tagesspiegel Mobil
    https://m.tagesspiegel.de/...sten-viele-junge-menschen-werden-depressiv-zurueckbleiben/25945936.html

    “The young climate activists, without being asked, take on the responsibility for the future of those who have established themselves in society and who shy away from this responsibility. It hurts me to say that, but in this struggle a lot of young people get frustrated, burned out and even left depressed. "

    ...

    The corona crisis is a test case for how seriously politicians take the even bigger climate crisis. “I would say that at least we have already won the battle for climate awareness, the decision-makers in Berlin and Brussels have not rolled backwards. We must now act decisively forward . "

    ...

    “Too many in this society, especially too many decision-makers in politics and business, practice a blatant denial of responsibility because they believe that there is no alternative to the self-chosen materialistic madness. The climate catastrophe is not only a consequence, but also a reflection of our way of life. "
    TADEAS
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    Klimawandel:  Klimaforscher Schellnhuber - "Das war meine Lebensleistung" - MOZ.de
    https://www.moz.de/amp/nachrichten/brandenburg/artikel-ansicht/dg/0/1/1806922/

    However, Schellnhuber has not yet achieved his goal of limiting global warming to a maximum of two degrees through a noticeable reduction in the burning of fossil fuels. "Politicians find it difficult to achieve long-term goals; they always look for short-term solutions," the scientist says. However, there is only a period of about ten years for suitable measures. "Technically, physically and even economically, we can still reach the limit," says Schellnhuber. "If we lose another decade, the train has probably left."

    This is similar to the current Corona crisis, he says. "If you had reacted a week earlier, tens of thousands of people would have been saved." And countries like the USA, Russia, Great Britain and Brazil are hit hardest. "Because they didn't take science seriously."

    "If nothing happens, global warming will be four to five degrees by the end of this century," warns the scientist. "From a geological point of view, that would be a journey back in time 30 million years ago, with devastating weather extremes and sea level rise." His son can still experience this, says Schellnhuber. "It is therefore our damned duty of our generation to stabilize the climate so that future generations can have a good life."
    TADEAS
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    Corona and the climate: a comparison of two emergencies
    https://www.cambridge.org/...parison-of-two-emergencies/AE382384C616E5707064066B5065DD4E/core-reader

    To summarize our four-step analysis, the COVID-19 outbreak helps us to formulate a contingency plan for the climate emergency that necessitates the following core elements: lower the probability of damage through mitigation; lower damages through adaptation; increase intervention time through science; and decrease reaction time via a social contract and improved governance of the global commons

    ...

    For both the corona crisis and climate change, despite uncertainties, science helps us to establish a diagnosis, prognosis and therapy. Yet it remains to be seen whether societies and governments around the world are willing to take up the challenge that climate change poses as vigorously as they are addressing coronavirus. In fact, it is a matter of intergenerational social justice. The Climate Corona Contract recognizes that, in the face of risks to which nobody is immune, a renewed commitment and related institutional mechanisms to safeguard the right to life are all the more essential. Experience is a hard teacher, but the lessons from the corona crisis should be taken forward to protect our planet and preserve it for future generations. The outbreak has brought to light the potential to transform some of the foundations of our society. This can serve systemic change, not just in the short term. In a time when ‘social distancing’ is the new norm, ‘new ways of coming together’ (Yong, 2020) are being ingenuously found. This renewed appreciation of our shared destiny may well help us to think in the long term about the very value of the only planet we have and our role therein
    TADEAS
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    In response to the extensive area of open water in July (typically sea ice covered), sea surface temperatures are warmer than average across the entire #Arctic Circle...

    [Graphic and methods from @dmidk: https://t.co/s3iuSDTkjo] https://t.co/gOd6atH4F

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    SHEFIK
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    PAD: jasne, podmacenou krajinu u dalnice nechceme, ale treba pod svahem mezi lany poli s nejakymi stromy... nechal bych to na odbornikach

    z toho co sepsal/citoval tuho mi jen prislo, ze bysme skoro meli palit vic destnych pralesu, protoze stromy odparuji moc vody .)
    PAD
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    SHEFIK: Presne! Z pohledu simulaci to urcite nema takovy vliv jako mraky z Atlantiku, ale lokalne to ma vliv ohromny. My mame mokrad a potok za domem, maly cyklus vody vidim kazdy vecer a rano, kdy si musim vzit gumaky, libi se to spouste kytek (a bouzel i slimaku a komaru a klistat) a lokalne mame vzdy o 1-2 stupne nizsi teplotu, nez pouhych 500 metru dal do kopce. I behem tech nejvetsich such se tady drzela voda (byvala tu i obecni studna). Ten mokrad to tolik neodpari za predpokladu, ze je prave hezky prorostly vegetaci. Navic ten maly cyklus. Ale chapu, ze nejaky maly mokrad na Vysocine je pod rozlisovaci schopnost CHMI:)
    --
    Ja ten jeho vzkaz ale cetl trochu jinak: Nepropadejme panice a nevrhneme se, jako za komunismu, tu k masove stavbe morkadu, jinde k masove stavbe prehrad. Jednejme s rozmyslem.
    SHEFIK
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    TUHO: ad mokrady imho taky zavadejici. ma pravdu, ze to neni jediny nastroj, ktery bychom meli pouzivat na zadrzeni vody v krajine, ale rozhodne sve misto ma. mokrad neni otevrena plocha, muze mit ruzny formy a naopak umoznuje prave v maximalni mozny mire prusaku vody do pudy. zaroven se kolem nej tvori spousta zivota, jak v horni vrstve, porostly rostlinama, tak i v tech spodnich vrstvach, nebo v okoli, kam mokrad pousti vodu

    napr. http://zitkrajinou.cz/voda-a-sucho/mokrad-zadrzi-krajine-vic-vody-nez-umele-nadrze/

    Mokřady pozitivně ovlivňují vodní režim v krajině. Jsou přirozenou zásobárnou vody a jsou specifickým prostředím pro různé druhy rostlin a živočichů. Jde o jeden z největších fondů genetické biodiverzity. Patří mezi největší biotopy s nejvyšší biologickou aktivitou, v tom se řadí hned za deštné pralesy a korálové útesy. Mokřady také zadržují a postupně uvolňují mnohem více vody než například uměle vytvořené nádrže. Například 10 m² mokřadů zadrží až 9 000 litrů vody.
    SHEFIK
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    TUHO: to s temi stromy je dost mimo. les samozrejme zadrzuje vodu, celorocne. i kdyz v kontextu jednoho stromu u chaty s malou okolni vlahou ten strom musi neco pit. a tedy relativne "vysousi" okoli. nicmene i zpevnuje pudu korenovym systemem, aby se puda nesesouvala, takze tech duvodu u stromu u staveni bude vic. prekvapuje me ze takovej zavadejici blabol vypusti nekdo z chmi

    k zadrzovani vody lesem viz napr. http://www.silvarium.cz/...snictvi-a-drevarstvi/voda-a-krajina-bez-lesa-neni-vody-agrobase-zpravodaj

    ale staci googlit dal

    na horach by bez lesa byla sucha krajina, kdo ma chatu u lesa, nebo v horach, vi moc dobre z vlastni zkusenosti
    TADEAS
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    TADEAS: ad blueocean event

    Virtually ice free (<1 million sq. Km) before 2028 would surprise me and after 2035 would also surprise me. Somewhere in the middle of that gets my best guesstimate - hence 2032.

    This is all - Climatologically speaking - almost instantaneously.
    https://twitter.com/rgatess/status/1295788497551478785?s=19
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    Democrats Drop Demand To End Fossil Fuel Subsidies From Party Platform
    https://huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5f3c2907c5b6d8a9173f0268/

    The Democratic National Committee this week quietly dropped language calling for an end to fossil fuel subsidies and tax breaks from its party platform, HuffPost has learned.

    On July 27, officials added an amendment to the Manager’s Mark, a ledger of party demands voted on as one omnibus package, stating: “Democrats support eliminating tax breaks and subsidies for fossil fuels, and will fight to defend and extend tax incentives for energy efficiency and clean energy.”

    The amendment was approved. But the statement ― which reflects pledges presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, each made on the campaign trail ― disappeared from the final draft of the party platform circulated Monday.

    In an emailed statement, a DNC spokesperson said the amendment was “incorrectly included in the Manager’s Mark” and taken out “after the error was discovered.”
    TADEAS
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    Climate Change is Still Accelerating (Even If We Aren’t Talking About It) | Novara Media
    https://novaramedia.com/...8/climate-change-is-still-accelerating-even-if-we-arent-talking-about-it/

    The singular tragedy of global warming is not having insufficient information to act, but rather being entirely aware of the situation – with often worst case predictions coming to pass – and deciding to still turn things up a level. When the ledger for this century’s ‘excess deaths’ is determined, those most responsible for unnecessary suffering won’t be dictators, generals and ideologues, but media tycoons and politicians who denied the reality of climate warming or failed to act.

    What the coronavirus crisis has usefully demonstrated, however, is that behavioural change at the level of the individual is inadequate to deal with global warming, rising sea levels and declining crop yields. This has been confirmed by the fact that despite the spectre of empty motorways and a spectacular downturn in consumption, lockdown had a negligible impact on rising global temperatures. What’s more, decisive efforts by states around the world – from lockdown measures to building new healthcare capacity, and even redirecting production and labour to socially necessary areas – have saved the lives of millions. It is hard to acknowledge this while defending the motto of neoliberalism over the last four decades – that the market always knows best, and the state should just get out of the way.

    In a crisis, everyone becomes a socialist. The problem is that even now, the powerful can afford to ignore the greatest crisis of them all
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