v200924 Bridging the gap Randers to CoR TEP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBuBY4pw3mI
50 years ago Limits warned about overshoot and collapse in the middle of the 21st century.
The book warned about a drop in well-being not in GDP. This drop was caused by planetary limitations of some kind or the other. At this time 50 years later, the world is moving briskly towards climate collapse. Again, this will cause a drop in well-being, not necessarily in GDP. And the reason why we're still moving towards climate collapse is slow societal reaction to the challenge - it is not because it is impossible to stop climate collapse. Continued business as usual appears incapable of solving the problem. The current solution to most ills - the liberal market economies based on private ownership - appear unable to handle the situation in time. Other systems have been tried and also failed, so apparently we need a new system and particularly a new economic system in order to stop the rapid move towards overshoot and collapse.
The new system needs to be capable of solving five problems as argued in the recent report to the Club of Rome, called transformation is feasible [
https://clubofrome.org/publication/transformation-is-feasible/ ].
* First of all, we need to reduce poverty and particularly in the poor world, which will require a new development model, not the Washington Consensus.
* Second, we need to reduce inequity in the rich world particularly that means taking from the rich and giving to the poor.
* Thirdly, we need to stop using fossil fuels.
* Fourthly, we need to stop destroying biodiversity and that is simply enough, simply protecting nature.
* And fifthly, we need to reduce the human population through public spending on health education and contraception. These five things are technically feasible, politically difficult and expensive.
The central challenge as i see it is that these measures require investment or spending on collective goods - investments that are not profitable from a private investor point of view.
In order to avoid overshoot and collapse we need not only a new system, but particularly a new success criterion. A criterion that sees the overshoot problem as something that arises when humanity seeks to solve that problem.
My suggestion in the 'transformation is feasible' report is what we call the average well-being for the majority. It is not enough to pursue maximum growth in GDP, we need a multi-dimensional success indicator which could for example be composed of five components: * disposable income,, * the level of public services, * distributional equity, * environmental quality and * sustainability. The latter is essentially freedom from worry about future collapse in the global commons.
My advice to you, to the transformational economics panel, is:
1/ promote a solution not more analysis to start with the five measures in 'transformation is feasible' or
2/ the ten measures in the 'planetary emergency plan', [
https://clubofrome.org/impact-hubs/climate-emergency/planetary-emergency-plan-2-0/ ]
3/ find practical solutions to the obvious short-term obstacles - in other words do research to make these five measures less invisible in the current political environment, and
4/ communicate.
In sum, it is possible to avoid overshoot and collapse.
The simplest way is to implement the five measures in the transformation is feasible report, but this will require collective action. In other words a stronger state. And this is of course a difficult sell in the current political environment. The problem will not be solved by the market or by well-meaning voluntary individual action. It will require a modification of current systems. Good luck.
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