YMLADRIS,
TADEAS,
TADEAS: za dva dny okolo toho vzniknul vtipnej info-vír .) ... jednak to prebiraj media v tom doomistickym tonu, coz je jedna vec, ktera se da kritizovat. ten clanek ale podle me spis jen ukazuje, co rika ten jejich zjednodusenej model, pricemz smyslem toho zjednodusenyho modelu je jen se prizpusobovat casem tem komplexnejsim modelum. smysl dobre udelanyho jednoduchyho modelu jsem chapal ze je v tom, aby si i instituce, ktery se nezamerujou vyhradne na klima mohly delat nejaky hruby modely pro svoje vyuziti. nemyslim, ze to spousta tech kritiku chape.
Richard Betts
https://twitter.com/richardabetts/status/1326948034979172356
The water vapour and surface albedo feedbacks in that particular model are much stronger than in any of the CMIP models used in IPCC, which are more closely informed by observations & physical understanding
Is the climate crisis pushing the world towards a ‘point of no return’? | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/...change/climate-change-crisis-tipping-point-world-warm-b1721822.html
“The results presented in the paper are interesting but are really at odds with the science community’s understanding of how the climate is changing,” says Prof James Renwick, head of the school of geography, environment and earth sciences at the Victoria University of Wellington.
“The latest round of climate model simulations show that if greenhouse gas emissions were to stop immediately, there is likely to be very little further increase in temperatures and no sign of warming resuming in future.”
The models used by the IPCC are more advanced and better able to simulate the behaviour of the Earth’s feedback loops, says Prof Mark Maslin, a climate scientist at University College London.
“These results do need to be confirmed by more complex climate models used in the IPCC reports, because these results come from one model which has not undergone the rigorous cross checking and testing that is usual for climate models,” he says.
In their paper, the authors note the simplicity of their model by saying that they “encourage other model builders to explore our discovery in their [bigger] models, and report on their findings”.
It is important to understand that it is not too late to take actions to address the climate crisis, says Prof Betts: “I really wouldn’t want people to take [the research paper] seriously and start getting worried that the climate catastrophe is now unavoidable.”
Claims that the world is “doomed” to suffer extremely high levels of warming can be detrimental to global efforts to tackle the climate crisis, explains Leo Barasi, author of the Climate Majority.
“Claims the world is irreversibly doomed to runaway warming, and no amount of emission cuts can help us, can always find an audience, just like claims that climate change is nothing to worry about,” he told The Independent.